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trying auction, need quick tips/strategy for tomorrow (1 Viewer)

kdt

Footballguy
trying auction, need quick tips/strategy for tomorrow

hey guys, trying out first auction league. seems more exciting than standard since u got a shot at everyone and you can make others overpay for those you dont want.

i do need tips from experienced folk out there. it seems too good to be true--

standard 12team 200$ (PPR with flex and extra bench spot) seems like i can get some GREAT starters. im saying a good/decent QB, a top tier RB and a 2nd/3rd tier RB, a top tier WR1 and two WR2s and some decent option at TE. then fill my bench with CHEAP upside dudes. i MUST be missing something here, since i can call myself the champion if this is true!

is it better to get a strong core of high tier players (50$ 30$ for 2 rb, 30 20 15 for 3wr, 20 for qb, leaving me around 35$ for cheap filler flyers) and an upside risky bench, or a solid talent group of starters with some capable ones on the bench (15 qb, 20 20 20 20 or something for 4rb, 20 15 15 10 etc for 4WR, and so on??). with the first idea, my bye weeks would be hit or miss, with my second it would be more stable. hope that makes sense.

also, ANY experienced tips and strategies are welcome. just in a rut with how to draft my team...

 
Players go for more $$ early, and less $$ later....generally
I'd say they go for more money early and late as people either have too much money or get desperate that the elite guys are running out. Get a guy just in the middle.I had my first ever auction last night, really enjoyed it. I regretted a couple of my moves at the time (300$ league, start 1,3,2,1wr/te,1, IDP's) especially Moreno ($29), Romo ($22) and Bryant ($5) but looking at what some other guys went for I'm glad I went with the guys I did. My provisional starting lineup for this week looks like this:Romo ($22)ADP ($81)Matthews ($34)Foster ($22)Megatron ($42)Nicks ($19)Knox ($3)Finley ($13)
 
Done several auctions. Prices are inflated at first, usually, but sometimes the first guy nominated at a certain position, e.g., RB, actually goes for a couple bucks less than the second guy at the postion. Ex: Peyton, 1st nom, went for $23, then Rodgers (32), Brees (29), Brady (25), Romo(16) and, finally, Rivers (21) and Schaub (22). Once the universe became depleted guys who sat back too long were bidding against one another. I was the "lucky" owner who happened to hit the sweet spot with Romo, at least that's my opinion.

This kind of inflation/deflation can take place positionally and overall, so you have to keep your eye on positional universe as well as overall universe.

I followed advice I found here at FBG: Don't bid more than 20% of your total budget on any one player, or more than 75% of value, as determined by VDB outcomes (also available here at FBG). That baseline strategy will reel in any impulse bidding you may be tempted to leap to. Of course, there are exceptions to all rules. Our league rewards QB's 6p for TD's. plus 3p bonus for 10-39-yd TD's and 6p bonus for TD's in excess of 39 yards. Because of that, I spent $16 to land Romo, whose VBD value (based on our scoring system) was $20 (75% = $15).

If you lay back properly you'll be in the driver's seat later in the auction and be able to buy the player(s) you target. If you don't do your homework, though, you really won't know who to target, though, will you? Many of the owners in my league know a lot about the top 50-100 players, but they hit the magazines early in the auction for ideas. You don't want to be there.

Here's the team I finished with (in order, by position) while all the other owners were haggling over $1-players ($100 budget, 16 players):

QB: Romo (16), Ben (3), Stafford (3)

RB: Best (17), Forte (7), R. Bush (5), Spiller (6), Harrison (3)

WR: Ward (4), Nicks (8), Knox (3), Crabtree (15), TO (4)

TE: Witten (3)

K: Buehler (2)

DST: MIN (1)

You can be the judge as to how I made out. I'd like to know, actually. My critics feel I lack home run hitters, but last year's home run hitters repeat at around 60%, so I don't always buy into chasing last year's stats. FBG's rate my team drooled over this roster, which is good enough for me.

 
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The mock auctions are very time-consuming and, to an extent, misleading, as are many mock drafts. You get people leaving in the middle and the computer takes over to play out the string. Some guys just want to mock until the top players are gone. Either way, you can't take mocks as Bible, as I'm sure hamster_13 would agree.

hamster_13 said:
ESPN has free mock auction drafts you can do. Try a few of those and see what drafting strategy suits you.
 
1. you need to have 2-3 stud players, even if it means spending a lot of money on them. You may think that you can build an equivalent team with 6-7 mid-level players (instead of 2-3 studs) but that's like skipping the first 2 rounds of a snake draft.

2. don't be afraid to overpay. Even if your cheatsheet tells you that Adrian Peterson is going for an average price of 30% of your cap, do not be afraid to bid up to 35% or whatever.

3. don't be afraid to pay as much for a 2nd tier player as you might have paid for a 1st tier player. Example: once the top 5-6 RBs are taken, people will start to get desperate. And they'll start overbidding for Shonn Greene and Cedric Benson. And your instincts might tell you to resist the urge to get one of those guys.....but trust me when I tell you that it's better to spend 15% on Green than to end up grabbing Michael Bush for $2.

4. "average auction value" sheets are OK as a guide, but they almost always underestimate the player's price. I'd rather use an "average draft" list and use it to estimate future player prices.

 
can you comment on the "average draft" list? confused.

thanks for the tips again. i figure i'd spend top dollar on 3 studs in QB WR RB. like for 200$ ppr flex

gore 50-55

moss 30-35

brady 20

that is already over half my salary. and thats perfectly fine right?

 
can you comment on the "average draft" list? confused.thanks for the tips again. i figure i'd spend top dollar on 3 studs in QB WR RB. like for 200$ ppr flexgore 50-55moss 30-35brady 20that is already over half my salary. and thats perfectly fine right?
You won't get any of the above players for those prices. Biggest strategy you need to take with you going in, don't get stuck on getting 1 player. By you listing Gore for 50-55, you are targeting him. If AP, MJD, SJax, CJ, Ray all get nomed before Gore and you don't bid waiting for Gore, you and about 3 others will be left bidding each other up to a crazy value to get the last stud RB. I might have a certain player in mind, but I won't let it stop me from bidding on and getting a different player if there is value.
 
what do they seem to go for? i just brought up the average yahoo values for a 12 teamer in 200$.

good point about the bidding wars. hopefully before gores time i can nominate some WR to start a WR run and drain everyones money

 
I am really fascinated with your team. I am in an auction league myself and after the auction I like to compare my roster to a standard snake draft to see where my players would have fallen. With that said, I don't think you did that well. There is not one person on your team that could be considered a first round player or a 2nd round player. It is as if you traded out of round 1 and 2 for a bunch of 4th and 5th rounders. I am not trying to be mean, you asked for feed back on your team and this is just my opinion on it.

Done several auctions. Prices are inflated at first, usually, but sometimes the first guy nominated at a certain position, e.g., RB, actually goes for a couple bucks less than the second guy at the postion. Ex: Peyton, 1st nom, went for $23, then Rodgers (32), Brees (29), Brady (25), Romo(16) and, finally, Rivers (21) and Schaub (22). Once the universe became depleted guys who sat back too long were bidding against one another. I was the "lucky" owner who happened to hit the sweet spot with Romo, at least that's my opinion.This kind of inflation/deflation can take place positionally and overall, so you have to keep your eye on positional universe as well as overall universe.I followed advice I found here at FBG: Don't bid more than 20% of your total budget on any one player, or more than 75% of value, as determined by VDB outcomes (also available here at FBG). That baseline strategy will reel in any impulse bidding you may be tempted to leap to. Of course, there are exceptions to all rules. Our league rewards QB's 6p for TD's. plus 3p bonus for 10-39-yd TD's and 6p bonus for TD's in excess of 39 yards. Because of that, I spent $16 to land Romo, whose VBD value (based on our scoring system) was $20 (75% = $15). If you lay back properly you'll be in the driver's seat later in the auction and be able to buy the player(s) you target. If you don't do your homework, though, you really won't know who to target, though, will you? Many of the owners in my league know a lot about the top 50-100 players, but they hit the magazines early in the auction for ideas. You don't want to be there. Here's the team I finished with (in order, by position) while all the other owners were haggling over $1-players ($100 budget, 16 players):QB: Romo (16), Ben (3), Stafford (3)RB: Best (17), Forte (7), R. Bush (5), Spiller (6), Harrison (3)WR: Ward (4), Nicks (8), Knox (3), Crabtree (15), TO (4)TE: Witten (3)K: Buehler (2)DST: MIN (1)You can be the judge as to how I made out. I'd like to know, actually. My critics feel I lack home run hitters, but last year's home run hitters repeat at around 60%, so I don't always buy into chasing last year's stats. FBG's rate my team drooled over this roster, which is good enough for me.
 
A really important question is the amount of time that others in the league have been participating in auctions. Experienced auction owners will act differently than those that are new to the auction.

If most of the owners are new to the auction, you're more likely to have people that will pay more at the front of the auction and be left with little at the end. You need to plan accordingly. Top tier talent will continue to become more expensive until getting to the end of the first tier. If you are in this league - look for depth when owners each have their first player. You're going to end up with 3 RB #2 without a #1, same for WRs. Build some depth and move it later.

If you are joining a league that has done this a number of times in the past - then you can expect some value at the front end of the draft. Owners will be shy to overpay - and if you're willing to go $1 or $2 more than your budget for a player - go for it. You'll be happy with the stud.

In any event, do NOT go into the auction without a budget. Have a plan in place on how much to spend per position based on league size, and rules. Save some money in your overall budget to allow for going $1 or $2 more, and also to cover a $1 bid late in the draft.

One last word of advice - be quick on your $2 bid. Getting the bid in first can be the difference between winning a losing a player.

Good Luck

 
Three ideas: don't Be afraid to take guys early or over pay for your favorites. Bidding wars for the last guy in a tier can be brutal. There are a ton of good guys to be had at 2-3 dollars a pop.

 
what do they seem to go for? i just brought up the average yahoo values for a 12 teamer in 200$.good point about the bidding wars. hopefully before gores time i can nominate some WR to start a WR run and drain everyones money
RBs always go first, so don't think you will be able to drain any cash with a WR run. Definitely nominate a stud QB this year to drain money, QBs are going for cash.If you want Gore, budget 70 to make sure you get him and hope for 65. If he comes in cheaper, than great, you can now upgrade your WR2.
 
i like to nominate WRs (that i dont want) early just to get an idea of what the league is willing to pay for a top WR. then you can kinda decide whether to go for stud wrs with tier 2 RBs, or to go big after a stud rb. personally, i prefer to load up on studs at other positions other than rb because it costs less $ per point that way. i'd rather pay $30 for a wr that gets me 17 pts a game versus paying $50 for a rb that gets 20.

 
Regarding drafting a super-team, I guess it depends on whether you pick some sleepers and find the big free agents in the first couple of weeks.

A guy in my league paid $78 for Chris Johnson and $46 for Rodgers. He also spent $20 on Finley. The rest of his team includes RB#2 options of LT and McFadden. His receivers are Bowe, Royal, Collie, and Britt. He loves his team, but I say mostly fail.

 
spend the extra dollar or two or couple for the guys you REALLY want. the benefit of auction, after all, is ability to have a chance at every player.

don't go spending a chunk of your cap on a guy just because he seems to be going a little bit cheaply based on supply & demand at the time...if you really don't want/like him...

you'll regret it afterwards when you look and see that you spent $10 on that guy and you could have had that RB or WR you loved but let go for another $2-4 bucks and at the end you missed on a $1 flyer you loved because someone else had $3 left and sniped him

also keep track of who others have and nominate their backups early and often to drain their cap and fill their rosters...

like a darren sproles for the ryan mathews owner or buckhalter for the moreno owner

 
ok last major question: when are the most common nomination times (rounds) in which people splurge and people back off? i'd like to take advantage of that. and how does nominating crappier players early (like a 5+ rounder or kickers/D) in the early rounds usually end up?

any ways for people to drain are good :)

 
The league I am in switched to auction format 10 years ago and is running strong. The first thing you will find is that EVERY auction is different. Although I can be pretty accurate on most of the players values each year, Even after 10 years, I have to make adjustments every year in mine. The first thing I do is I assign estimates that I would like to spend on each position. We have a 20 man roster, with 9 starting positions. My list will look something like this...with the Dollar amount being the amount that I expect to pay for each position and the Bold being the starting spots. We have 12 teams and use a $300 cap.

QB $30

QB $5

QB $1

RB $75

RB $35

RB$15

RB $1

RB $1

WR $65

WR $35

WR $10

WR $1

WR $1

WR $1

TE $15

TE $1

D $4

D $1

K $2

K $1

I think that it is very important to have an idea of what you want to spend at each spot. But it is even more important to be able and willing to adjust on the fly during the draft. Meaning, if I suddenly get my #1 RB for $55, Then I will add that $20 that I saved to other spots. Or, If I see that RB's are running a bit higher then expected, I may pay more for my #1 RB. In that case I would subtract it from my other spots. Also, you don't want to miss out on a top RB or WR because you weren't willing to pay a couple $'s more only to find yourself over bidding later by that same coouple of $'s for a lower tiered player.

Below is a little sample of the first ten QB, RB and WR nominated at each position and what they went for. Just keep in mind that we protect 2 players every year. This explains why players such as Chris Johnson, Frank Gore, Jones-Drew, Turner, Ray Rice and several others are not listed below. As they were protected.

1 Kevin Kolb PHI $ 22

2 Philip Rivers SD $ 46

3 Drew Brees NO $ 82

4 Tom Brady NE $ 76

5 Tony Romo DAL $ 62

6 Brett Favre MIN $ 33

7 Donovan McNabb WAS $ 16

8 Matthew Stafford DET $ 19

9 Jay Cutler CHI $ 23

10 Matt Ryan ATL $ 11

1 Adrian Peterson (MIN) MIN $ 82

2 Steven Jackson STL $ 66

3 Justin Forsett SEA $ 11

4 Ryan Mathews ® SD $ 81

5 Ryan Grant GB $ 53

6 LeSean McCoy PHI $ 42

7 Pierre Thomas NO $ 28

8 Michael Bush OAK $ 7

9 Jerome Harrison CLE $ 9

10 Matt Forte CHI $ 22

1 Randy Moss NE $ 75

2 Andre Johnson HOU $ 91

3 Calvin Johnson DET $ 65

4 DeSean Jackson PHI $ 49

5 Marques Colston NO $ 50

6 Santonio Holmes NYJ $ 14

7 Greg Jennings GB $ 35

8 Larry Fitzgerald ARI $ 70

9 Sidney Rice MIN $ 28

10 Mike Williams (TB) ® TB $ 5

Hope this helps you a bit...

 
This may or may not be of use to you.

My league was using auction instead of draft for the first time. I was also the only person using the VBD spreadsheet. I input the scoring etc and then after the auction plotted the actual price players went for against their perceived values. Here's the link if you're interested.

https://docs.google.com/leaf?id=0B7_3IVXZG6...uthkey=CJq4798E

GoRaiders was right about nominating a stud QB. I did that with Rodgers this year and he went for a ridiculous high amount compared to his "value".

 
There are often values to be found in the very first players up for bid, so knowing what players are worth without waiting to see what others are paying is a very good thing.

It's ok to overpay a little bit at a position if everyone else is overpaying, if it's necessary to get worthwhile starters. Just try to overpay less than everyone else.

If you find that you've overspent, STOP SPENDING. If you're patient the auction will come back to you and you'll be able to get good values again. If you jump in when your funds are already depleted, you may end up at the end losing out on the good backups. Which leads to...

Understand the power of $2... which means understand that when everyone is at the end of the draft, the team that can spend $2 on backups while everyone else only has $1 left can pretty much control the auction and get the best backups and sleepers. Do a few mock drafts so you see this in effect. Someone else nominates a player at $1, you bid $2... either you get him for $2 or you force someone else to go $3... which at that point in the auction $3 can really cut into an owners remaining cap space quick.

Don't go in with a list of players you have to have. If you want to maximize your team, you need to find good values, and then invest those savings back into your starting lineup. Know how much you want to spend on your starters and how much on your backups. If you save $15 on RB and QB, then pick up a WR who is $15 better than the one you might have gone after if those RBs and QBs had cost you what they were worth.

Use a tool like Draft Dominator that can adjust prices of remaining players based on the bids paid to date.

 
GregR said:
There are often values to be found in the very first players up for bid, so knowing what players are worth without waiting to see what others are paying is a very good thing.It's ok to overpay a little bit at a position if everyone else is overpaying, if it's necessary to get worthwhile starters. Just try to overpay less than everyone else.If you find that you've overspent, STOP SPENDING. If you're patient the auction will come back to you and you'll be able to get good values again. If you jump in when your funds are already depleted, you may end up at the end losing out on the good backups. Which leads to...Understand the power of $2... which means understand that when everyone is at the end of the draft, the team that can spend $2 on backups while everyone else only has $1 left can pretty much control the auction and get the best backups and sleepers. Do a few mock drafts so you see this in effect. Someone else nominates a player at $1, you bid $2... either you get him for $2 or you force someone else to go $3... which at that point in the auction $3 can really cut into an owners remaining cap space quick.Don't go in with a list of players you have to have. If you want to maximize your team, you need to find good values, and then invest those savings back into your starting lineup. Know how much you want to spend on your starters and how much on your backups. If you save $15 on RB and QB, then pick up a WR who is $15 better than the one you might have gone after if those RBs and QBs had cost you what they were worth.Use a tool like Draft Dominator that can adjust prices of remaining players based on the bids paid to date.
The power of $2 is a good point, really saw it in action last night. I think strategy might differ depending on the number of teams in the league and also roster size. My only auction is a 10 team, 13 roster spot league. Obviously, you can get quality players at the end for $1 or $2. So, I generally try to grab a couple of studs and fill in the rest. I'm not usually among the people who pay much for a QB in a 10 team league as you'll always get someone serviceable. I'd also recommend nominating a veteran player early that doesn't "excite" people but would still represent a solid starter. For example, guys like Steven Jackson and Reggie Wayne can often go for less than value early i the draft because people are targeting other players and don't want to start witha guy they've had on a roster a dozen times before. Here's my team from last night ($100 cap)...I'm happy overall but should have saved a few more dollars if possible, since late nominations like Harrison, Romo and Nicks went for dirt cheap towards the end when only a few people had more then $2 to spend. I wanted to get either AP or CJ and I did accomplish that. TE's tend to go cheaper than they should since we're not required to start one. AP went for $51, more than half our allocation, but that's the norm for our small league. QB: M Ryan ($1), Big Ben ($1)RB: C Johnson ($46), Best ($9), Barber ($2), Hightower ($1)WR/TE (no TE required): Calvin ($20), Finley ($6), Gates ($7), S Moss ($4), Celek ($1)K: Buehler ($1)D: Pitt ($1)
 
can you comment on the "average draft" list? confused.
Here's an example. This "average auction value" (AAV) sheet has Peyton Manning at $29 and Philip Rivers at $18. That implies that Manning is worth 60% more than Rivers is worth. But on an "average draft position" (ADP) list, the two players are much closer in value (2.6 vs. 4.6).That says to me that Rivers' value (in comparison to Manning) is much closer than the mock auction indicates, so therefore I shouldn't be afraid to bid $19+ to get him.

Also, the AAV list is terrible at differentiating the value between players in the $1-$4 range. Example: Matt Cassel and Trent Edwards are both listed with $2 values, yet Cassel has an ADP that is 35 picks better than Edwards' ADP.

(BTW, in my league, Manning went for $35 and Rivers went for $30. Cassel went for $8 and Edwards went for $1.)

 
can you comment on the "average draft" list? confused.
Here's an example. This "average auction value" (AAV) sheet has Peyton Manning at $29 and Philip Rivers at $18. That implies that Manning is worth 60% more than Rivers is worth. But on an "average draft position" (ADP) list, the two players are much closer in value (2.6 vs. 4.6).That says to me that Rivers' value (in comparison to Manning) is much closer than the mock auction indicates, so therefore I shouldn't be afraid to bid $19+ to get him.

Also, the AAV list is terrible at differentiating the value between players in the $1-$4 range. Example: Matt Cassel and Trent Edwards are both listed with $2 values, yet Cassel has an ADP that is 35 picks better than Edwards' ADP.

(BTW, in my league, Manning went for $35 and Rivers went for $30. Cassel went for $8 and Edwards went for $1.)
I'm not following you here. Yes, the AAV you posted implies Peyton is worth 60% more than Rivers is worth. But I don't see that pointing at their ADP shows anything that proves that isn't correct.How is it that you convert ADP of 2.6 and ADP of 4.6 into a specific difference in value between the two players? Obviously it means Peyton is viewed as more valuable, and not by an insignificant amount, but how do you tell how much more valuable to be able to so 60% isn't appropriate?

I don't see how one can make such a comparison with any confidence without working from some concrete expected numbers for them. An ADP list just doesn't have built into it the magnitude of the drop off between picks.

So I did work the numbers to see just how far apart their value is. Using FBG's projections as a set of beliefs to work from, I come up with Peyton having a VBD value of 99 and Rivers having a VBD value of 65. Which would mean Peyton has a value that is a little over 50% that of Rivers.

I think that confirms the AAV prices for those two players were fairly appropriate. Not spot on compared to the beliefs about the players I used for this example, but it certainly shows the masses have a perception on par with the FBG beliefs.

This highlights a problem I have with a lot of auction advice. In auctions much more so than in drafts, you can determine pretty well what a player should cost given a set of beliefs about all the players. So why not do it? This was an example of ignoring dealing with the actual values themselves and trying to draw a conclusion based on less information... in this case an ADP list that doesn't express how big the gap is between picks. And as a result the conclusion that was drawn seems much worse than if we'd just worked with the actual set of beliefs on the players and translated them to something that can be directly compared.

I can see the benefit in looking at an AAV to get an idea of what players are being incorrectly valued by the masses so you have a list of players you will want to keep an eye on to maybe target in your auction. But why would anyone not want to work from actual prices that reflect their beliefs, rather than resorting to guessing at them? It isn't that hard to calculate them. Even though I still have some reservations about how DD calculates auction prices, I think you can get a very appropriate set of prices out of it. Prices close enough you should be able to work from them and come out ahead in an auction over people who are guessing at them.

 
quick poll: how much did you spend on your starters % wise? please list # of starters and bench and total cap.

seems like 90%+ is the way to go.

 
I didn't read the whole thread but my auction strategy is to usually pay your big bucks for a stud or two or three then sit back and reap the rewards of the dollar derby. My sig team is an auction draft, how else would you end up with ap and aj?

 
thanks for the help guys. i regret spending so much so early, will keep that in mind. a lot of players went for a TON. i think andre went for 50+, and that wasnt an outlier...hehe

heres how i did: 200$ ppr wr/rb/te flex addition

1. (11) Adrian Peterson (Min - RB) $64

2. (23) Frank Gore (SF - RB) $56

3. (46) Malcom Floyd (SD - WR) $9

4. (61) Steve Smith (Car - WR) $25

5. (66) Dwayne Bowe (KC - WR) $13

6. (118) Mike Williams (Sea - WR) $3

7. (124) Kareem Huggins (TB - RB) $2

8. (125) Devin Thomas (Was - WR) $1

9. (130) Donovan McNabb (Was - QB) $10

10. (158) David Buehler (Dal - K) $1

11. (160) LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ - RB) $7

12. (166) Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle - WR) $1

13. (174) Eddie Royal (Den - WR) $1

14. (175) Tashard Choice (Dal - RB) $2

15. (181) Cincinnati (Cin - DEF) $2

16. (182) Jeremy Shockey (NO - TE) $1

17. (183) James Jones (GB - WR) $2

im very weak at TE/QB and lack depth. oh well.

 
for 100$ waiver options, how do you guys spend? 1$ on a hot pickup? 10$?
Depends on your style. Every year we have the same guy that blows his wad after Week 1 or 2, and then be left with free agents pickups the rest of the way. I conserve my cash esp. if one of my handcuff RBs are on the wire due to needing to pickup some bye week fillers. There has been plenty of times this has saved me, and I was able to go get my guy when injuries happen.
 
what % of your cap would you spend to get him, or what is worth it? 20%? i figure there cant be many more than 5 really good players youll pick up throughout the season.

 

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