Two guys the fantasy community is sleeping on (1 Viewer)

[bigmiiiiike]

LeGarrette Blount:

Blount has no serious competition on a young, up and coming team. His year-end numbers in 2010 were solid but unspectacular, and IMO he is being graded on these numbers when being ranked/projected in 2011. However, take a look at his production from week 8 on (below). The guy averaged 18 carries for 90.5 yards, and scored a 5 TDs. Over 16 games, this projects to 288 carries, 1448 yards, and 8 TDs, and sprinkle in a few extra points for receiving. Yet the guy is currently the 21st RB off the board in non-PPR redraft, behind guys like DeAngelo and JStew.

Week Opponent Car Yards TD Fum NON-PPR points

8 10/31/10 @ARI 22 120 2 1 23

9 11/07/10 @ATL 13 46 0 0 4

10 11/14/10 CAR 19 91 1 0 15

11 11/21/10 @SF 26 82 0 0 8

12 11/28/10 @BAL 13 55 0 0 5

13 12/05/10 ATL 20 103 1 0 16

14 12/12/10 @WAS 15 68 0 1 5

15 12/19/10 DET 15 110 1 0 17

16 12/26/10 SEA 18 164 0 0 16

17 01/02/11 @NO 19 66 0 1 5

MJD

Everyone is down on MJD this year, whether it be because of his knees, accruing workload, or crappy team. His 2010 #s look good, but not great, with 299 carries for 1324 yards and only 5 TDs, plus 34 catches, 317 receiving yards, and 2 more receiving TDs. Definitely a notch below what we saw from him in 2009. However, consider that the Jags were pretty awful last year, and MJD ripped off 6 straight 100 yard rushing games before shutting it down in week 15 (I believe he played some in week 15, then was out for weeks 16 and 17). Here are his numbers from his last 6 full games:

8 10/31/10 @DAL 27 135 0 0 14

9* // - - - - -

10 11/14/10 HOU 24 100 2 0 24

11 11/21/10 CLE 23 133 1 1 25

12 11/28/10 @NYG 21 113 0 0 11

13 12/05/10 @TEN 31 186 0 0 18

14 12/12/10 OAK 23 101 1 0 17

The man is still a beast. Unless his knees seriously limit him this year, I have trouble seeing how he isn't the best pick after the top few studs are off the board (Foster, AP, CJ3, Charles, Rice). Three FBG staffers rank him as RB13 or later in non-ppr redraft, which in my opinion is way to quick to predict the demise of a still great (and proven) stud RB.

 

[The Dynasty]

I wouldn't necessarily say anyone is sleeping on these guys.

 

[Birdnals]

Definitely think Blount has a chance to put together a BIG season if he can keep it together (mental/physical) for a whole season. He was trending up towards the end of the season, finishing 11th in standard scoring during the last 5 weeks of the season and 8th during the last three weeks. The guy definitely has the physical tool and would've been a 1st rounder without his behavioral history so we know he's got the talent. I think Tampa is a good team environment for a guy like him and this may be one of the last seasons you can get him (and other Bucs O guys) on the cheap. I don't play dynasty but if I did, I'd be all over this guys. Should be a great value in redraft as well.

 

[drfeelgood]

Everyone is down on MJD this year, whether it be because of his knees, accruing workload, or crappy team.

I don't think everyone is down on MJD this year.

 

[hook014]

Love Blount at his ADP, he should be on my team in redraft.

Won a championship w/ MJD 2 yrs ago and yes he's still a beast. But man those knees. Who wants to risk losing their league because they took MJD one too many years? There are safer options around where he is being drafted.

I take plenty of chances on guys in the course of a draft. But 1st round? No thanks.

I figure to make the playoffs if I can avoid a screwup in the first 5 rds and nailing value in the money rds.

if you do your homework you dont need to go for broke on this pick.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

I wouldn't necessarily say anyone is sleeping on these guys.

Agree completely. Blount is no better that S. greene or M. Turner, especially in PPR leagues where the value of all three is negated due to lack of recpt's.MJD....well if u go for him, u MUST handcuff Jennings with him, usually much earlier than planned for, as absolute insurance. In either redraft or auctions, it's going to cost u to alter your draft strategy.

 

[Sabertooth]

Blount's numbers against came almost exclusively against cream-puff defenses if I recall correctly. That has me wary of him being a mirage.

 

[Shutout]

I don't know if 21 is right for him (would have to think out a list), but overall Blount is not more than a few spots higher than that. He's not going to be a darling (and by that, given what people know of him, he would have to ascend solidly into the top 10).

Extrapolating numbers isn't a great idea at the RB position without considering the other significant factors that people always seem to overlook when they are drumming up a player.

You have to keep in mind that this guy came in fresh and put up a half year's work against people that were 2 months into the season and banged up while he was fresh. You have to consider whether Blount can have the same consistency over the course of a full year (lots of backs show wear and tear after they log in 250+).

The numbers look promising but even when you look at them, there is more to the story. You may see the big average per carry and the nice number of TDs, but if you look , you also see the game where the Cards gave up at the end and he had that long run at the end for the TD. That game was 20/70~ yards without that garbage TD. You also see big stats against bad teams like the Panthers and you see very pedestrian stats against good teams like the Ravens, Saints, and Falcons. He did have one big game against the falcons but he also had three others against good teams where his days ended up with 50-60 total yards.

I'm not saying he wont continue to improve or that he won't be a good ff back, but he's not going to be making anyone start lumping him in the same tier as McFadden, Mccoy, SJAx this season. He's more likely to be that guy that you start each week on your team but notice a significant difference between him and your opponent's Ray Rice/Jamal Charles, etc when you play the big boys.

 

[saintfool]

i think blount is a sell high candidate, especially in dynasty formats.

 

[Toomuchnv]

Blount's numbers against came almost exclusively against cream-puff defenses if I recall correctly. That has me wary of him being a mirage.

I heard yesterday on the radio from the Tampa beat writer that they want blount to work on his receiving ability to keep him in the lineup on 3rd down. If that's the case I think he is someone to keep an eye on. He is in a division with somewhat average to below average defenses so he could be even better this year than last year.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

i think blount is a sell high candidate, especially in dynasty formats.

My post was only from a redraft perspective. I'd bet that the Bucs will add another RB eventually, Blount isn't the type of talent that will keep other guys off the field I don't think. But THIS year, there isn't any serious competition for carries.

 

[saintfool]

Blount's numbers against came almost exclusively against cream-puff defenses if I recall correctly. That has me wary of him being a mirage.

I heard yesterday on the radio from the Tampa beat writer that they want blount to work on his receiving ability to keep him in the lineup on 3rd down. If that's the case I think he is someone to keep an eye on. He is in a division with somewhat average to below average defenses so he could be even better this year than last year.

NO was average against the run last year. ATL was just outside of the top 10. ron rivera, who is a terrific and respected defensive mind, is the new carolina HC. if they can avoid the injury bug that depleted them last and put some credible offense to help keep them from wearing down then they'll improve dramatically. the NFC south is not a cream puff division.

 

[saintfool]

i think blount is a sell high candidate, especially in dynasty formats.

My post was only from a redraft perspective. I'd bet that the Bucs will add another RB eventually, Blount isn't the type of talent that will keep other guys off the field I don't think. But THIS year, there isn't any serious competition for carries.

i don't know. they were pretty high on kareem huggins last year going into the season. he fell to injury before he got a chance. that they didn't draft anyone or sign a FA RB is good news as much for him as it might be for Blount.

 

[ookook]

Blount was 17th in DYAR and 15th in DVOA.

So I would think getting him anytime after 18 RBs are off the board would be about right.

 

[Grahamburn]

Blount was a bellcow stud for basically 11 games. That's not really half the season. Big runs count. Long TDs count. Why is it a negative thing that the guy tore up bad defenses? All RBs have games where they only gain 50-60 yards.

Granted, Blount amassed only 201 carries, but he held up fine carrying that load solely on his shoulders. Tampa's offense is ascending. I'd get on board with their position players while you can still get them this cheap.

 

[Hybrid]

There's no way MJD will equal his numbers last year. I watched every Jacksonville game and had him on my championship team last year. The man looks like he's going to fall apart at any moment. With MJD fading and Jennings looking very good, I wouldn't be surprised if he only gets around 15 carries a game later in the year.

 

[TheFanatic]

I hope people aren't sleeping on these guys. I have them both in the same league and would move either of them for the right offer. Keep pimping Blount and MJD.

 

[Dez]

Neither will probably be on any of my teams this year and I usually play between 20-25 leagues a year.

 

[mcintyre1]

Blount is one of my favorite sleepers for the coming year. He's such an unusual runner. If I had to compare him to anyone, I'd say he's a slower Brandon Jacobs with more agility. When you watch Blount run, your thoughts will be: 1) Man, that's a big dude. 2) Jeez, he's kind of slow 3) Wow, he just knocked that guy flat on his ### 4) ...did he just hurdle that guy? 5) I hope he doesn't punch anyone.

I am worried about his long term value. I think his hold on the starting job is tenuous and will depend greatly on how he develops this year. If he can develop as a receiver, I think he'll lock in that starting gig for at least another few years. If he remains a 2 down back, I think he's going to be replaced sooner than later through the draft. Regardless, do yourself a favor and watch some of his highlights on youtube. You'll be surprised at what you see from such a large man.

 

[saintfool]

Blount is one of my favorite sleepers for the coming year. He's such an unusual runner. If I had to compare him to anyone, I'd say he's a slower Brandon Jacobs with more agility. When you watch Blount run, your thoughts will be: 1) Man, that's a big dude. 2) Jeez, he's kind of slow 3) Wow, he just knocked that guy flat on his ### 4) ...did he just hurdle that guy? 5) I hope he doesn't punch anyone.I am worried about his long term value. I think his hold on the starting job is tenuous and will depend greatly on how he develops this year. If he can develop as a receiver, I think he'll lock in that starting gig for at least another few years. If he remains a 2 down back, I think he's going to be replaced sooner than later through the draft. Regardless, do yourself a favor and watch some of his highlights on youtube. You'll be surprised at what you see from such a large man.

i would agree about the agility/speed. he's almost built like a TE and has that physicality to his running.

 

[imagroid]

My two guys are Arian Foster & Hakeem Nicks.

Mofos are getting majorly slept on......

 

[The_Wolfman]

I'm torn on MJD...I owned him last year and he was a huge disappointment. Sure he could be a great value at the end of the 1st round but he could also be a monumental bust if he can't stay healthy. I guess it all depends on how much you believe in the old adage "You can't win your league in the 1st round but you can lose it"

 

[Birdnals]

Blount's numbers against came almost exclusively against cream-puff defenses if I recall correctly. That has me wary of him being a mirage.

He doesn't really have many games against eye-popping d's this season. Falcons twice, Packers, Bears. Tough D's no doubt, but every RB has tough opponents on the sched. Not exactly like he's running against the AFC North.