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UFC wagering: breaking news - judging is so terrible it got me to return here to update this thread title (1 Viewer)

UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
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Another extra wrinkle tonight is that a lot of these guys are fighting outside of their natural class, up and down. Size is a big enough factor at this level that it is really hard to see where the advantages are and how each of them handled the cut or lack of one.
 
i don't like fightmetric's numbers as much, but here is what they had:Fighter KD Sig. Str. Sig. Str. % Total Str. TD TD % Sub. Att. Pass Rev.FIGHTS TOTALSMaynard 49 of 225 22% 52 of 229 1 of 9 11% 1 0 0Guida 0 45 of 321 14% 49 of 327 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0ROUND 1Maynard 5 of 51 10% 5 of 51 0 of 0 0% 0 0 0Guida 0 10 of 59 17% 10 of 59 0 of 0 0% 0 0 0ROUND 2Maynard 7 of 41 17% 7 of 41 0 of 0 0% 0 0 0Guida 0 10 of 87 11% 10 of 87 0 of 0 0% 0 0 0ROUND 3Maynard 9 of 58 16% 9 of 58 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0Guida 4 of 63 6% 4 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0ROUND 4Maynard 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0Guida 10 of 54 19% 14 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0ROUND 5Maynard 17 of 43 40% 17 of 43 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0Guida 11 of 58 19% 11 of 58 0 of 0 0% 0 0 0Wow, round 3 was brutal. Guida landed 4 of 63 strikes, and Maynard landed 9 of 58.
Through the first 3 rounds I wasn't even sure if either guy landed a punch.
 
I get why people might compare the fight to Condit - Diaz, but they weren't the same thing. Condit's plan was not to get backed up against the cage and let Diaz go wild like he does. Condit threw plenty of counters and was landing with his kicks all fight and outstruck a guy who is known for severely outstriking his opponents. He fought a safe fight, but not a "run away like a ##### the second he gets close to me" fight. Hope Guida gets cut and goes back to doing GEICO commercials.

 
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I get why people might compare the fight to Condit - Diaz, but they weren't the same thing. Condit's plan was not to get backed up against the cage and let Diaz go wild like he does. Condit threw plenty of counters and was landing with his kicks all fight and outstruck a guy who is known for severely outstriking his opponents. He fought a safe fight, but not a "run away like a ##### the second he gets close to me" fight. Hope Guida gets cut and goes back to doing GEICO commercials.
Your Hate for Diaz is clouding your vision on this. Guida and Condit moved almost exactly the same. Condit did land a lot more counter shots than Guida did, but still not a fight anyone wants to see. pointfighting sucks.
 
I get why people might compare the fight to Condit - Diaz, but they weren't the same thing. Condit's plan was not to get backed up against the cage and let Diaz go wild like he does. Condit threw plenty of counters and was landing with his kicks all fight and outstruck a guy who is known for severely outstriking his opponents. He fought a safe fight, but not a "run away like a ##### the second he gets close to me" fight. Hope Guida gets cut and goes back to doing GEICO commercials.
Your Hate for Diaz is clouding your vision on this. Guida and Condit moved almost exactly the same. Condit did land a lot more counter shots than Guida did, but still not a fight anyone wants to see. pointfighting sucks.
Link to Condit turning tail and running and getting warned by the ref?
 
I get why people might compare the fight to Condit - Diaz, but they weren't the same thing. Condit's plan was not to get backed up against the cage and let Diaz go wild like he does. Condit threw plenty of counters and was landing with his kicks all fight and outstruck a guy who is known for severely outstriking his opponents. He fought a safe fight, but not a "run away like a ##### the second he gets close to me" fight. Hope Guida gets cut and goes back to doing GEICO commercials.
Your Hate for Diaz is clouding your vision on this. Guida and Condit moved almost exactly the same. Condit did land a lot more counter shots than Guida did, but still not a fight anyone wants to see. pointfighting sucks.
Link to Condit turning tail and running and getting warned by the ref?
Here
 
UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
Follow me to freedom
Another extra wrinkle tonight is that a lot of these guys are fighting outside of their natural class, up and down. Size is a big enough factor at this level that it is really hard to see where the advantages are and how each of them handled the cut or lack of one.
lot of variables, big one is the "UFC jitters" in front of huge, loud crowd for the first time for quite a few of these guys
 
Made up my mind mo, I'm going with Silva tonight despite being a big Franklin fan.

Too much going against him, 190 lbs instead of the 205 he was prepping for, 5 rounds instead of 3, and that it is in Brazil.

Fight reminds me of when Silva fixed his face and actually dedicated himself to preparation for the Bisping fight. He came out and won.

I think crazy charging Silva is the best way to get to Franklin. Rich never really hurt him in their first match, I would be surprised if this went all five. Brazilian judges have been extremely favorable to Brazilians when possible.

 
Made up my mind mo, I'm going with Silva tonight despite being a big Franklin fan.Too much going against him, 190 lbs instead of the 205 he was prepping for, 5 rounds instead of 3, and that it is in Brazil.Fight reminds me of when Silva fixed his face and actually dedicated himself to preparation for the Bisping fight. He came out and won.I think crazy charging Silva is the best way to get to Franklin. Rich never really hurt him in their first match, I would be surprised if this went all five. Brazilian judges have been extremely favorable to Brazilians when possible.
Your last point about the judges made me cut my bet in half last night, so it isn't a big risk anymore. I still think Franklin wins, but it is a safer bet if he doesn't win. Also have money on Dias +220, Moraes +220, Viera +130. Only going with dogs on this show if i am betting anybody. Contemplated taking Rodrigo Damm at -200, but not sure
 
They're showing old Rich and Wand fights on the fight channel down here. Man, I'd forgotten about the hotness of ring girl Edith.

 
UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
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A pal of mine who is a degen really likes Russow tonight at +400. Not knowing a whole lot about UFC, what do you all think of this call?
 
UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
Follow me to freedom
A pal of mine who is a degen really likes Russow tonight at +400. Not knowing a whole lot about UFC, what do you all think of this call?
At those odds worth a shot, that's the play I'm making. Russow is very unlikely to be stopped so he is going to have a puncher's chance the whole 15 minutes. He has a pretty decent hammerfist on the ground and has a wrestling advantage. On paper Werdum should be able to submit him on the mat in a hurry but Russow is the kind of guy that just plods along, turtle juggernaut style.He is a part-time fighter who fights once a year facing a top #5 Heavyweight in the World. It is what it is, but real line should be like +270.
 
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I get why people might compare the fight to Condit - Diaz, but they weren't the same thing. Condit's plan was not to get backed up against the cage and let Diaz go wild like he does. Condit threw plenty of counters and was landing with his kicks all fight and outstruck a guy who is known for severely outstriking his opponents. He fought a safe fight, but not a "run away like a ##### the second he gets close to me" fight. Hope Guida gets cut and goes back to doing GEICO commercials.
Your Hate for Diaz is clouding your vision on this. Guida and Condit moved almost exactly the same. Condit did land a lot more counter shots than Guida did, but still not a fight anyone wants to see. pointfighting sucks.
Funny - My wife and I were talking about how the two fights were similar but different where it mattered. We both agreed that Condit at least engaged Diaz and hit him. I am usually a big Guida fan, but this fight was bs the way he just ran away the whole time.
 
I really like Damm after further review even at -200.

Seems like you need to be able to KO him to present a threat, Medeiros has very little power. Damm is bigger and Medeiros is also just back from recovering from a broken arm suffered on the show. Seems like they booked to fight to showcase Damm because they do not like each other and it would be an easy fight to sell. Damm was once a top prospect and has cage time against Gilbert Mendenez in Strikeforce. He is bigger and should deliver a beat down in short order.

Also like Rony Bezerra at -270 on the main card. Big number but very little risk there, could just as easily be -450.

 
More things to consider for the main event:

Silva has fought 6 rematches in his career. Nobody has ever beat him twice.

At 185 Rich Franklin has only lost to Anderson Silva (Lost twice, this fight is at 190)

2 of the 3 Sherdog judges scored the first fight for Silva.

If the line keeps dropping towards even I would recommend Rich. I'm in on Silva at +145.

 
Its time for a stike/take down counter on screen during the fights. With the Fox contract I think statistics will draw them more fans than blood right now.

 
UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
Follow me to freedom
A pal of mine who is a degen really likes Russow tonight at +400. Not knowing a whole lot about UFC, what do you all think of this call?
At those odds worth a shot, that's the play I'm making. Russow is very unlikely to be stopped so he is going to have a puncher's chance the whole 15 minutes. He has a pretty decent hammerfist on the ground and has a wrestling advantage. On paper Werdum should be able to submit him on the mat in a hurry but Russow is the kind of guy that just plods along, turtle juggernaut style.He is a part-time fighter who fights once a year facing a top #5 Heavyweight in the World. It is what it is, but real line should be like +270.
Down to +350... Got to like that.
 
UFC 147 scares the crap out of me betting wise. I can see maybe taking a couple flyers but I can't find enough on these guys to be recommending any kind of serious plays. I'm not sure if I'll be able to pull the trigger on anything tonight. Major bummer.
Follow me to freedom
A pal of mine who is a degen really likes Russow tonight at +400. Not knowing a whole lot about UFC, what do you all think of this call?
At those odds worth a shot, that's the play I'm making. Russow is very unlikely to be stopped so he is going to have a puncher's chance the whole 15 minutes. He has a pretty decent hammerfist on the ground and has a wrestling advantage. On paper Werdum should be able to submit him on the mat in a hurry but Russow is the kind of guy that just plods along, turtle juggernaut style.He is a part-time fighter who fights once a year facing a top #5 Heavyweight in the World. It is what it is, but real line should be like +270.
Down to +350... Got to like that.
Russow is like one of the last links to MMA roots in America. A guy that goes to work every morning and beats ### against the best fighters in the world when he has to.
 
adding Drinaldo +110
Good call...Got on this healthy..That guy is awesome. Great takedown defense and some heavy hands. Jesus.
Best part is that this fight was at 185. Drinaldo usually fights at 155. He could be a force in that division.
He fought up 30 lbs?I dont know how all that works. How can someone gain all that weight and stay fit then cut it all back to get to 155 for his next fight?
 
adding Drinaldo +110
Good call...Got on this healthy..That guy is awesome. Great takedown defense and some heavy hands. Jesus.
Best part is that this fight was at 185. Drinaldo usually fights at 155. He could be a force in that division.
He fought up 30 lbs?I dont know how all that works. How can someone gain all that weight and stay fit then cut it all back to get to 155 for his next fight?
They only had 185 lb and 145 lb divisions on the show. He was way too big to cut to 145 so he had to compete up if he wanted in. Usually a fighter can cut about 10% of their walking weight in camp and another 10% for the weigh in.ETA: To be fair Helano usually fights at 170. Drinaldo was able to hold his own in the clinch with Perpultulo for a while on the show, a fighter who is capable at 205. That is crazy strength.
 
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I really like Damm after further review even at -200.Seems like you need to be able to KO him to present a threat, Medeiros has very little power. Damm is bigger and Medeiros is also just back from recovering from a broken arm suffered on the show. Seems like they booked to fight to showcase Damm because they do not like each other and it would be an easy fight to sell. Damm was once a top prospect and has cage time against Gilbert Mendenez in Strikeforce. He is bigger and should deliver a beat down in short order.
:thumbup:
 
I really like Damm after further review even at -200.Seems like you need to be able to KO him to present a threat, Medeiros has very little power. Damm is bigger and Medeiros is also just back from recovering from a broken arm suffered on the show. Seems like they booked to fight to showcase Damm because they do not like each other and it would be an easy fight to sell. Damm was once a top prospect and has cage time against Gilbert Mendenez in Strikeforce. He is bigger and should deliver a beat down in short order.
:thumbup:
:suds: Ok, maybe I do like this card. At least we are getting some good action.I doubt anyone orders this card, but the main event has a chance to be epic with this crowd if Silva's chin holds up, maybe even more epic if it doesn't. One thing about it this crowd is going to be so loud that Franklin won't dare spending much time looking for takedowns.ETA: I was a bit pessimistic but the UFC is also getting a good influx of talent here. Much more so than the American Ultimate Fighters. Alacarta vs Dias has potential to be a fantastic fight. Very good talent on display here.
 
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I really like Damm after further review even at -200.

Seems like you need to be able to KO him to present a threat, Medeiros has very little power. Damm is bigger and Medeiros is also just back from recovering from a broken arm suffered on the show. Seems like they booked to fight to showcase Damm because they do not like each other and it would be an easy fight to sell. Damm was once a top prospect and has cage time against Gilbert Mendenez in Strikeforce. He is bigger and should deliver a beat down in short order.
:thumbup:
:suds: Ok, maybe I do like this card. At least we are getting some good action.

I doubt anyone orders this card, but the main event has a chance to be epic with this crowd if Silva's chin holds up, maybe even more epic if it does. One thing about it this crowd is going to be so loud that Franklin won't dare spending much time looking for takedowns.

ETA: I was a bit pessimistic but the UFC is also getting a good influx of talent here. Much more so than the American Ultimate Fighters. Alacarta vs Dias has potential to be a fantastic fight. Very good talent on display here.
First one I have ordered in about a year.

 
I really like Damm after further review even at -200.

Seems like you need to be able to KO him to present a threat, Medeiros has very little power. Damm is bigger and Medeiros is also just back from recovering from a broken arm suffered on the show. Seems like they booked to fight to showcase Damm because they do not like each other and it would be an easy fight to sell. Damm was once a top prospect and has cage time against Gilbert Mendenez in Strikeforce. He is bigger and should deliver a beat down in short order.
:thumbup:
:suds: Ok, maybe I do like this card. At least we are getting some good action.

I doubt anyone orders this card, but the main event has a chance to be epic with this crowd if Silva's chin holds up, maybe even more epic if it does. One thing about it this crowd is going to be so loud that Franklin won't dare spending much time looking for takedowns.

ETA: I was a bit pessimistic but the UFC is also getting a good influx of talent here. Much more so than the American Ultimate Fighters. Alacarta vs Dias has potential to be a fantastic fight. Very good talent on display here.
First one I have ordered in about a year.
I can't believe they didn't make this card free. I bet it doesn't do 150,000 buys, which is probably a 5 year low for the UFC. I'm not saying anything against the quality of the fights, and the crowd experience makes it even more fun to watch from home. I think I forgot that I got goosebumps when they went nuts for Vitor with the stereo cranked.
 
I don't know if they instructed him to increase the drama or if he is doing it on his own but Rogan hasn't been his usual stuff in identify quality submission attempts. He has been getting worked up lately about a lot of junk.

 
Dias needs to keep this on the ground because his stand up appears severely lacking. Alacantara appears gassed and will be swinging haymakers.

 

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