Ultimate Strength of Schedule Question (1 Viewer)

[Dolfan]

Can Clayton Gray or anybody else explain why the '%Change' column for RBs is much higher, on average for the entire league?

It would seem to me that there should be as many teams, roughly, and by the same amount, roughly, would have more difficult schedules against the run as have easier schedules...

IOW, I totaled the '%Change' column for the league and it came out to ~+35% -- whereas I expected this to be much closer to 0%. Is Gray saying that the average team in the league has a 2% easier schedule against the run this year than last? Did some major run-stoppers retire that I don't know about? Further, the reason seems to come from a few teams in the +10% to +13% range, while the most difficult SOS for RBs is only in the -4% or -5% range...

Doesn't seem logical to me, but I guess it's possible...

 

[AB in DC]

Can Clayton Gray or anybody else explain why the '%Change' column for RBs is much higher, on average for the entire league?

It would seem to me that there should be as many teams, roughly, and by the same amount, roughly, would have more difficult schedules against the run as have easier schedules...

IOW, I totaled the '%Change' column for the league and it came out to ~+35% -- whereas I expected this to be much closer to 0%. Is Gray saying that the average team in the league has a 2% easier schedule against the run this year than last? Did some major run-stoppers retire that I don't know about? Further, the reason seems to come from a few teams in the +10% to +13% range, while the most difficult SOS for RBs is only in the -4% or -5% range...

Doesn't seem logical to me, but I guess it's possible...

If you're adding up the numbers for all 32 teams, then the average would be +1.1% per team. That says that Clayton expects NFL defenses to be 1.1% worse against the run, on average, in 2006 compared to last year. That doesn't seem too far fetched.

 

[R.White]

Help is on the way guys

 

[Dolfan]

If you're adding up the numbers for all 32 teams, then the average would be +1.1% per team. That says that Clayton expects NFL defenses to be 1.1% worse against the run, on average, in 2006 compared to last year.

That doesn't seem too far fetched.

I don't know where I got the 2% part from -- I was thinking 16 teams for some strange reason -- you are right +1.1% does not seem out of line too much at all..I guess the only thing that strikes me as odd is that there are three teams with > +10.6% (and another at +8.6%), yet the toughest schedule is only -6.4%..

It seems like a few teams' schedules got A LOT eaisier vs. the run while the majority of the league only got slightly more difficult schedules...

A little weird, but I guess it's right..

 

[Clayton Gray]

I guess a reply isn't really needed at this point, but this is a little bit of variance. To be honest, I haven't been completely comfortable with my RBs rankings all summer, but I think the small % difference is acceptable.

 

[R.White]

Thanks Clayton