Ultimate Survivor - Leg 1 - League 4 (1 Viewer)

[Pictus Cat]

I think your WR theory may meet hard times in week 4 and 5,

when 5 fantasy teams are gone,

and the reaper comes calling for 3 more.

This is best ball right? Not survivor.

It is. However, it'll function a lot like a survivor league. One 2-9 week and you're probably eliminated anyway. You must go 7-4 over the next four weeks just to get back above .500 -- which won't be good enough to get you through in all likelihood. bagger and the message board made an awesome comeback in the WCOFF challenge last season, but anyone who gets off to the start he did last year is in trouble -- no matter how good your team looks on paper. Somebody is going to have a team that would've finished in the top four by Week 8, but won't have gotten started in time.

These leagues will be a combination of Best ball and Survivor (ie no transactions). The Survivor leagues will vote off 2,1,2,1,2 in their five weeks (to get to 4 teams). Best ball will be cumulative record against the other teams. :(

That's it! Game over man, game over.

 

[BusMan]

I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup.

2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close.

what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).

i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.

When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?

because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?

I'm simply noting that the draft strategy you used to succeed in last year's WCOFF league isn't the same strategy you used in this league.

 

[John Mamula]

I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup.

2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close.

what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).

i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.

When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?

because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?

I'm simply noting that the draft strategy you used to succeed in last year's WCOFF league isn't the same strategy you used in this league.

are you really trying to tell me what my strategy was in each of these drafts?how exactly is it that you know?

my strategy was the same in each of these drafts, however nuances in individual drafts can result in varying draft picks and specific value falling at positions may cause a draft to look different to someone who doesn't know any better.

however, you apparently have it all figured out knowing how each of my players will specifically score and knowing what my strategy was last year and this year.

 

[BusMan]

I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup.

2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close.

what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).

i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.

When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?

because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?

I'm simply noting that the draft strategy you used to succeed in last year's WCOFF league isn't the same strategy you used in this league.

are you really trying to tell me what my strategy was in each of these drafts?how exactly is it that you know?

my strategy was the same in each of these drafts, however nuances in individual drafts can result in varying draft picks and specific value falling at positions may cause a draft to look different to someone who doesn't know any better.

however, you apparently have it all figured out knowing how each of my players will specifically score and knowing what my strategy was last year and this year.

My bad, bagger. I thought you were saying you used the same exact strategy in the two leagues in the bolded phrase above.

 

[Captain Quinoa]

I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup.

2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close.

what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).

i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.

When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?

because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?

I'm simply noting that the draft strategy you used to succeed in last year's WCOFF league isn't the same strategy you used in this league.

are you really trying to tell me what my strategy was in each of these drafts?how exactly is it that you know?

my strategy was the same in each of these drafts, however nuances in individual drafts can result in varying draft picks and specific value falling at positions may cause a draft to look different to someone who doesn't know any better.

however, you apparently have it all figured out knowing how each of my players will specifically score and knowing what my strategy was last year and this year.

My bad, bagger. I thought you were saying you used the same exact strategy in the two leagues in the bolded phrase above.

 

[Crippler]

Sorry, bagger, but I have you posting cripplingly low scores in Weeks 1 and 2---you might quickly become an afterthought in this league. Just way too much risk IMO.

lol based on what? Maybe you can post the scores for weeks 1 and 2 so i can see how i will do.

I'll get to this later today.

Week 1:QB Donovan McNabb - 17.8

RB Larry Johnson - 11.7

RB DeAngelo Williams - 8.4

WR Reggie Wayne - 15.9

WR Dwayne Bowe - 14.9

WR Marques Colston - 11.9

FLEX Bernard Berrian - 9.3

TE Jeremy Shockey - 8.9

PK Neil Rackers - 10.1

DEF Atlanta - 10.3

Total: 119.2 <---better than Usual21 by 10 points but worse than everyone else by at least 8

Week 2:

QB Donovan McNabb - 15.9

RB Larry Johnson - 16.9

RB DeAngelo Williams - 10.4

WR Reggie Wayne - 19.4

WR Marques Colston - 14.8

WR Dwayne Bowe - 10.5

FLEX Bernard Berrian - 8.9

TE Jeremy Shockey - 10.8

PK Neil Rackers - 9.2

DEF New Orleans - 5.0

Total: 121.8 <---better than crippler (barely) but worse than everyone else

There's your 2 - 20 start.

Of course this is a ridiculous exercise (projecting weekly points) but I do have some precedent in this regard.

These projections seem a little low on the WR side. There was 35 players that broke 20 points last year in week 1. Included in this group was 14 WR's, 11 QB, 4 RB and 2 TE. 22 WR's broke the 14.9 point and 21 beat the 15.9 pt barrier. Only 14 RB's beat the 14.9 barrier. For 10 points it was a 2-3 in the end comparison(25-36). And why I believe my WR RB 4 can outscore most RB2 by about 7 points which means I need 3 points from my crappy RB2 to make it up. But I also think QB could give me a nice boost to put me middle of the pack. Now week 4 is a big difference but alot of owners are missing key components in this week also.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup.

2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close.

what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).

i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.

When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?

because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?

I'm simply noting that the draft strategy you used to succeed in last year's WCOFF league isn't the same strategy you used in this league.

are you really trying to tell me what my strategy was in each of these drafts?how exactly is it that you know?

my strategy was the same in each of these drafts, however nuances in individual drafts can result in varying draft picks and specific value falling at positions may cause a draft to look different to someone who doesn't know any better.

however, you apparently have it all figured out knowing how each of my players will specifically score and knowing what my strategy was last year and this year.

My bad, bagger. I thought you were saying you used the same exact strategy in the two leagues in the bolded phrase above.

 

[BusMan]

maybe overkill here with this summary but i enjoy this part: dissecting what i just did and reading other people's strategies, especially since we have nothing to hide for future trade talks LOL

Team Lash:

KDS strategy:

i saw the second tier having 5 players in it after the big five in the top tier, so after my KDS roll was terrible i was hoping to get a slot at the END of that second tier that i saw as Barber, Gore, RMoss, Brady, LJ ... luckily the nine hole was still there when my KDS pick was up 3rd from last and so i chose 9 over 7 and 8 which would give me picks 9, 16, and 28 out of the box

pre-draft general strategy

1) picking at 1.09 i wanted in order (Barber, Gore, RMoss)

2) when talent is near equal, pick players if possible under 4 criteria in this priority order...talented player, on a high scoring team, against mostly weak defenses in weeks 1-5, with no bye week in weeks 1-5

3) draft defenses that play against terrible, turnover prone teams and/or with bad/new QBs - immediately San Diego stood out - they are #1 DST on the board anyways and they play against 5 turnover prone non-playoff teams in weeks 1-5 - reach to get them early so i would only have to grab ONE more defense and could pick them very late

4) kickers in last two rounds

5) wait on QBs, have 2RB and 3WR by round 5, top TEs all have question marks with injury or schedule except for Witten

draft

1.09 Marion Barber - my pick and Barber, LJ, and RMoss were there, chose MB3 because he fit all four criteria above

2.04 Randy Moss - i don't know why he was there, he fits all criteria (NE schedule plays 4 nonplayoffs) except has week 4 bye

3.04 Reggie Bush - missed Colston by one pick, Reggie fits criteria (PPR!) except playing against some decent defenses in weeks 1-5

4.09 Laurence Maroney - didn't foresee this pick was thinking WR but the WR tier was exhausted - fits criteria except week 4 bye

5.04 Ben Roethlisberger - He and Palmer last of tier 2 went with Ben due to int's being costly and SOS - he fits all criteria

note: predraft strategy #5 is blown up, now have to draft 7 or 8 WRs because only have 1 even though he is WR1 overall

note 2: even though i didn't employ this strategy, Draft Dominator had me picking my top choice in rounds 1-5

6.09 Donald Driver - PPR and Rodgers really likes him from all reports - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5

7.04 Lavernues Coles - last of a tier pick, chickened out on MHarrison - only criteria he fits is good player especially PPR-wise

8.09 San Diego - my first reach even though they are DST1, they play against fodder, should be turnover heaven - fit all criteria

9.04 Heath Miller - second questionable pick, was wanting VJax and don't know why i didn't - Miller does fit all criteria though

10.09 Duece McAllister - 3 targeted WRs didn't fall, went with RBush hedge with ADP in 7th rd - fits all criteria except schedule

11.04 Matt Leinart - insanely easy schedule - meets all criteria except he's not talented *gulp*

12.09 Donald Lee - again didn't want to reach for WR - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5

13.04 James Jones - loading up with Packers, don't know if that's good or bad - criteria same as Driver/DLee

14.09 Ahmad Bradshaw - PPR and NYG came out today with AB seeing field alot - fits all criteria except week 4 bye

15.04 Chad Jackson - homerun swing, my favorite late pick, hedge against RMoss injury - fits all criteria except week 4 bye

16.09 Lorenzo Booker - PPR and Westy injury prone AND wants 10M a year or holding out - fits criteria except schedule

17.04 Terry Glenn - why not this late - meets all 4 criteria if healthy

18.09 Earl Bennett - another questionable pick, easily the most talented WR on CHI roster - talent and no bye week only criteria met

19.04 Brodie Croyle - if NE doesnt kill him week 1 and he keeps job, faces 4 horrible teams weeks 2-5 - talent, bad team, easy SOS

20.09 David Akers - kicker

21.04 Detroit Lions - don't laugh, targeted DST here will have TO feast on Ryan/Redman, Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Grossman

22.09 Phil Dawson - kicker

note: all grades below are obviously barring any future injuries which change everything

QB - Big Ben, Leinart, Croyle - with Leinart's and Croyle's schedule and didn't reach for Ben - GRADE: B+

RB - Barber, Maroney, RBush, Duece, Bradshaw, LBooker - only team in league with three top 16 RBs per FBG ranking - GRADE: A

WR - RMoss, Driver, Coles, Glenn, JamesJones, CJax, EBennett - need one of 4 bench to surprise - GRADE: C-

TE - HMiller, DLee - on two good teams and both get redzone targets hope they cover each other - GRADE: B-

K - Dawson, Akers - kickers both have tough schedules but maybe that keeps em out of endzone only - GRADE: C

DST - San Diego, Detroit - 9 of 9 games in turnover heaven, 15+ points weekly here - GRADE: A+

Overall - Barber, RMoss, Ben can all explode at any time, Ben and RMoss were in top6 in scoring last year in this format, weak WR depth, Ben and RMoss must stay healthy, i need ONE break from my WR bench and i need Coles/Driver PPR skills to keep them at a consistent score weekly - GRADE - B

Mulligans:

1) scary team if i'd have picked VJax in 9th and ZMiller/GOlsen/HMiller in 10th instead of HMiller in 9th, VJax has a very easy schedule and Gates likely not to play or at least not be effective

2) a pick of a possible healthy Marvin Harrison at 7.04 woulda put me in top four i'm pretty sure barring crazy stuff, but i thought take the safe Coles - could cost me who knows

3) could have went Jennings instead of Ben at 5.04

4) DMac Almost fell to me in 6th, would have drafted 9WR if he woulda and stayed with 4 RBs

5) coulda went with one kicker or one defense and grabbed another WR

very entertaining, hope i can make it to leg 2 ...

i would appreciate all feedback so i can improve - what am i drinking too much koolaid on above and what am i potentially underestimating?

Lash,You might have some trouble in week four, but I definitely think you're a contender. Nice Moss scoop.

I wonder where Terry Glenn will end up, if anywhere?

 

[Lash]

i'm toast hehe

doesn't matter where Glenn ends up because he was the 3rd least worrisome problem i had postdraft

1) Duece swole knee

2) Maroney has ANOTHER running mate

3) Glenn released

 

[BusMan]

i'm toast hehedoesn't matter where Glenn ends up because he was the 3rd least worrisome problem i had postdraft1) Duece swole knee 2) Maroney has ANOTHER running mate3) Glenn released

1) I heard Deuce was cleared for practice today, so there's some good news.2) It seem that Maroney just isn't destined to be the Patriots full-time featured back.3) Maybe Glenn'll get picked up by the Tuna?

 

[Lash]

i'm hoping Glenn to PHI after they fail to trade for Boldin

 

[BusMan]

Young, Vince TEN QB 8.02

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 11.11

Edwards, Trent BUF QB 12.02

Three late with good schedules for first 5 weeks.

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 1.02

Turner, Michael ATL RB 3.11

White, LenDale TEN RB 5.11

Faulk, Kevin NEP RB 17.11

Perry, Chris CIN RB 21.11

Selected 2nd pick from the 4th KDS slot to get LT or Westy PPR. Turner and White seemed value with a couple PPR guys.

Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.11

Welker, Wes NEP WR 4.02

Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 6.02

Clayton, Mark BAL WR 10.02

Jackson, Darrell DEN WR 13.11

Williams, Roydell TEN WR 14.02

Booker, Marty CHI WR 16.02

Stokley, Brandon DEN WR 19.11

KDS 2nd pick hoping to get a Cin WR because I think they will do well in the first 5 weeks.

8 total to and only Welker at 4.02 with a bye to keep points churining into the 3 WR/Flex spot.

Heap, Todd BAL TE 7.11

Crumpler, Alge TEN TE 9.11

Just took them when the value seemed there. Will be interesting to see if the backup fills the flex in this best ball any week.

Brown, Kris HOU PK 20.02

Nedney, Joe SFO PK 22.02

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 15.11

Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 18.02

Two each, none with byes.

Overall not a bad team, only two players with byes in week 4 in Welker and Faulk. Hoping to make the top 4. If it is KDS, I'm staying away from Bramel, getting thrown under the Bus, and Sea-wanna-be.

I like VY in this format---I was targeting him when you picked him. I think you got great value in Garcia---I didn't have the stones to take him with all this Favre talk.Like I said above, I was hoping Westy would fall to me, but I should've known he wouldn't. Your RBs look pretty good.

I'm not so high on your receivers but they should get the job done.

Good pick with Alge---I had him as the #5 TE on my board.

You snagged Arizona right before I was gonna take 'em.

Good work---you have a slightly weak third week but should have no trouble contending.

Darrell Jackson has the early lead on the #2 spot in Denver and he could be the #1 for you during this league with Marshall's possible suspension. Nice.

 

[BusMan]

Total team strengths from DD:

Jene Bramel			 896BusMan				  876by_the_sea-wannabe	  874Pictus Cat			  839fake_15				 833bagger				  818crippler				796bucki4life			  790John Norton			 790Lash					787Raider Nation		   784Usual21				 733

 

[BusMan]

Garrard, David JAC QB - 7 7.12Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 4 8.01Lemon, Cleo JAC QB - 7 21.12Wallace, Seneca SEA QB - 4 22.01Well I got Garrard to match my predraft plan to draft 2 of my top 12 qb's that didn't bye weeks of 4 or 5 but I had to take Hasselbeck as a value pick. I like Garrard's week 4 match up so I felt comfortable taking Hass. I missed out on my 3rd qb (Garcia/Campbell/Jackson) so I went in the direction of taking my backups. Will now at least score every week even if I am hit with injuries. Dunn, Warrick TBB RB - 10 15.12Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB - 4 3.12Peterson, Adrian CHI RB - 8 14.01Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® - 9 5.12Taylor, Chester MIN RB - 8 10.01Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB - 9 1.01KDS - Took # because of LT. Jacobs is off week 4 but I think I should be all right that week with my other 4 backs. Stewart should see the goal line work at worst so that could be valuable a couple of weeks. Taylor/Dunn/Peterson should all get enough touches in the first 5 weeks to help out if Jacobs/Stewart don't deliver in a week.Chambers, Chris SDC WR - 9 6.01Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - 10 9.12Hackett, D.J. CAR WR - 9 12.01Meachem, Robert NOS WR - 9 13.12Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR - 9 16.01Smith, Steve CAR WR - 9 2.12No bye week issues and I expect to score well every week from this position. Locked up the Car passing game. Nabbed Steve Smith and hopefully with a healthy Delhomme I should get decent numbers out of either Hackett or Muhammad every week. Chambers and Crayton should provided steady points every week. Meachem could be a boom pick but if he fails I am not worried.Gates, Antonio SDC TE - 9 4.01Olsen, Greg CHI TE - 8 11.12Probably should have waited on my TE but if healthy enough Gates is a top performer and I am high on Olsen. Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 8 20.01Reed, Jeff PIT PK - 6 19.12Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def - 7 17.12Panthers, Carolina CAR Def - 9 18.01Best of what was left.

Good work, btsw---I see you moving on.

I heard some talk on Sirius about Gates possibly starting the season on PUP---has anyone else heard this?

 

[fake_15]

damn you holmgren damn you maurice morris.

 

[Crippler]

Total team strengths from DD:

Jene Bramel			 896BusMan				  876by_the_sea-wannabe	  874Pictus Cat			  839fake_15				 833bagger				  818crippler				796bucki4life			  790John Norton			 790Lash					787Raider Nation		   784Usual21				 733

Not bad considering how low Marvin Harrison is rated for this. A healthy Marvin will lead to an extra 30 and this score and put me right in the mix despite my RB depth.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Total team strengths from DD:

Jene Bramel			 896BusMan				  876by_the_sea-wannabe	  874Pictus Cat			  839fake_15				 833bagger				  818crippler				796bucki4life			  790John Norton			 790Lash					787Raider Nation		   784Usual21				 733

It will be interesting to see what the DD says in a month...

 

[bucki4life]

Total team strengths from DD:

Jene Bramel			 896BusMan				  876by_the_sea-wannabe	  874Pictus Cat			  839fake_15				 833bagger				  818crippler				796bucki4life			  790John Norton			 790Lash					787Raider Nation		   784Usual21				 733

It will be interesting to see what the DD says in a month...

Why wait when BusMan can give us the answers now!

 

[Pictus Cat]

Admirable when someone puts it out there.

I only put it a little out.

Not because I'm afraid yall will know my secrets and plans,

but because I'm just making it up as I go along,

Which works for me, and keeps this fun,

but I can't PROVE anything.

I basically start with the DD,

Poorly try to keep up with the players

and my leaguemates tendencies.

And find value based on my interpretation.

Don't let the heat ruin the BUSRIDE.

 

[Raider Nation]

Devin Hester..... SoD

 

[Lash]

don't know who has steve smith but that has to suck

tuff luck to lose 40% of starts

 

[Pictus Cat]

Chambers, Chris SDC WR - 9 6.01

Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - 10 9.12

Hackett, D.J. CAR WR - 9 12.01

Meachem, Robert NOS WR - 9 13.12

Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR - 9 16.01

Smith, Steve CAR WR - 9 2.12

On the plus side, btSW has the other two CAR WRs.

 

[BusMan]

Total team strengths from DD:

Jene Bramel			 896BusMan				  876by_the_sea-wannabe	  874Pictus Cat			  839fake_15				 833bagger				  818crippler				796bucki4life			  790John Norton			 790Lash					787Raider Nation		   784Usual21				 733

It will be interesting to see what the DD says in a month...

Not quite a month but here goes anyways...

Jene Bramel			 892  -4by_the_sea-wannabe	  879  +5Pictus Cat			  848  +9BusMan				  846 -30crippler				823 +27bagger				  819  +1bucki4life			  816 +26Raider Nation		   789  +5fake_15				 787 -46John Norton			 785  -5Lash					782  -5Usual21				 729  -4

A bit of a shakeup, especially for my squad.

 

[BusMan]

Quasi-weekly update. Jene is pulling away, bagger gets a bump, and Pictus Cat takes a dive.

Jene Bramel			 909 +17by_the_sea-wannabe	  858 -21BusMan				  857  +9bagger				  834 +15~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pictus Cat			  815 -33crippler				815  -8bucki4life			  811  -5John Norton			 781  -4fake_15				 779  -7Raider Nation		   772 -17Lash					764 -18Usual21				 719 -10

 

[BusMan]

Wanted to update this as well.

Team				   W 	  LJene Bramel		   52	   3by_the_sea_wannabe	40	  15BusMan				33	  22bucki4life			29	  26 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bagger				28	  27  Raider Nation		 26	  29 Lash				  24	  31  Pictus Cat			24	  31 crippler			  24	  31 John Norton		   22	  33 fake_15			   20	  35Usual21				8	  47

 

[John Mamula]

Quasi-weekly update. Jene is pulling away, bagger gets a bump, and Pictus Cat takes a dive.

Jene Bramel			 909 +17by_the_sea-wannabe	  858 -21BusMan				  857  +9bagger				  834 +15~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Pictus Cat			  815 -33crippler				815  -8bucki4life			  811  -5John Norton			 781  -4fake_15				 779  -7Raider Nation		   772 -17Lash					764 -18Usual21				 719 -10

Trending in the right direction.Once Warner gets the nod (which he will) that trend would continue I would imagine.

 

[John Mamula]

Wanted to update this as well.

Team				   W 	  LJene Bramel		   52	   3by_the_sea_wannabe	40	  15BusMan				33	  22bucki4life			29	  26 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bagger				28	  27  Raider Nation		 26	  29 Lash				  24	  31  Pictus Cat			24	  31 crippler			  24	  31 John Norton		   22	  33 fake_15			   20	  35Usual21				8	  47

there is no way anyone gets out of round one with less than 10 losses.also, i may be remembering wrong but i thought round 1 was 4 weeks, you have it going 5?maybe it is 5...i haven't looked at the rules in over a month.i still think this methodology isn't taking into consideration my RBBC and warner's strong PPG #s when he starts, and i would bet money my WRs are better than the DD thinks they are. but we'll just let it play out. people doubted my QBs as well as a weak link for my team. the combination of favre/warner/mcnabb should consistantly be towards the top end of weekly production.

 

[BusMan]

Wanted to update this as well.

Team				   W 	  LJene Bramel		   52	   3by_the_sea_wannabe	40	  15BusMan				33	  22bucki4life			29	  26 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bagger				28	  27  Raider Nation		 26	  29 Lash				  24	  31  Pictus Cat			24	  31 crippler			  24	  31 John Norton		   22	  33 fake_15			   20	  35Usual21				8	  47

there is no way anyone gets out of round one with less than 10 losses.also, i may be remembering wrong but i thought round 1 was 4 weeks, you have it going 5?maybe it is 5...i haven't looked at the rules in over a month.i still think this methodology isn't taking into consideration my RBBC and warner's strong PPG #s when he starts, and i would bet money my WRs are better than the DD thinks they are. but we'll just let it play out. people doubted my QBs as well as a weak link for my team. the combination of favre/warner/mcnabb should consistantly be towards the top end of weekly production.

I agree it would be unlikely for Jene to do so well---but I have his team pretty far ahead of the rest of us right now.The league runs the first five weeks of the season. Advancers get put into new leagues and redraft before week six.You're certainly on the upswing, bagger. I would definitely not be surprised to see you advance. Good drafting.

 

[fake_15]

Everytime I look at my team it gets worse.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Young, Vince TEN QB 8.02

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 11.11

Edwards, Trent BUF QB 12.02

Three late with good schedules for first 5 weeks.

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 1.02

Turner, Michael ATL RB 3.11

White, LenDale TEN RB 5.11

Faulk, Kevin NEP RB 17.11

Perry, Chris CIN RB 21.11

Selected 2nd pick from the 4th KDS slot to get LT or Westy PPR. Turner and White seemed value with a couple PPR guys.

Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.11

Welker, Wes NEP WR 4.02

Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 6.02

Clayton, Mark BAL WR 10.02

Jackson, Darrell DEN WR 13.11

Williams, Roydell TEN WR 14.02

Booker, Marty CHI WR 16.02

Stokley, Brandon DEN WR 19.11

KDS 2nd pick hoping to get a Cin WR because I think they will do well in the first 5 weeks.

8 total to and only Welker at 4.02 with a bye to keep points churining into the 3 WR/Flex spot.

Heap, Todd BAL TE 7.11

Crumpler, Alge TEN TE 9.11

Just took them when the value seemed there. Will be interesting to see if the backup fills the flex in this best ball any week.

Brown, Kris HOU PK 20.02

Nedney, Joe SFO PK 22.02

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 15.11

Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 18.02

My WR's have taken a beating.Curtis - OUT

Ocho - 5 Shoulder

DJax, Stokely - Emergence of Royal, Marshall suspension reduction

Booker - Not a starter

Roydell Williams - Not doing much

Welker - appears healthy Ribs, may miss time

Clayton - didn't lose WR2 spot

Well, having Chris Perry is a small comfort.

 

[John Mamula]

QB

Favre, Brett FA* QB - - 12.10

Flacco, Joe BAL QB ® - 10 22.10

McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 7 7.03

Warner, Kurt ARI QB - 7 13.03

Getting McNabb in the early 7th round was a gift, one of many I received in this draft. Normally I wait much longer on grabbing QBs in this format, but with so many people grabbing QBs earlier than they should, waiting until round 7 to get McNabb was too juicy to pass up. With his post week 5 bye, I was set at QB for the first 5 weeks of round 1. Filled out the balance of my QB positions with Favre who may be on a team by this weekend, Warner who could very likely be starting before the end of round 1, and a complete upside pick of Flacco who will be starting for the Ravens week 1.

All 4 of my QBs will be starting week 1.

 

[John Mamula]

Scores through the Sunday night game so some of this can move with 4 NFL teams still to play on Monday...

John Norton 169.0

Bagger 151.4

Jene Bramel 148.2

bucki4life 146.4

crippler 141.6

Pictus Cat 140.1

BusMan 125.9

by_the_sea_wannabe 123.1

Lash 118.3

Fake_15 110.2

Usual21 107.7

Raider Nation 66.0

 

[BusMan]

Scores through the Sunday night game so some of this can move with 4 NFL teams still to play on Monday...John Norton 169.0 Bagger 151.4Jene Bramel 148.2 bucki4life 146.4 crippler 141.6 Pictus Cat 140.1 BusMan 125.9 by_the_sea_wannabe 123.1 Lash 118.3 Fake_15 110.2 Usual21 107.7 Raider Nation 66.0

I need some help from Cutler/Purple Jesus/Rice tonight.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Scores through the Sunday night game so some of this can move with 4 NFL teams still to play on Monday...

John Norton 169.0

Bagger 151.4 Fargas -9.1, Berrian-13.1

Jene Bramel 148.2 Rogers-18.4, S. Young-17.2 (12.7), Curry, Jennings, -8.4/12.1Broncos -18

bucki4life 146.4 Grant -12.2, Shiancoe -22.4

crippler 141.6 Brandon Jackson - 8.4, Crosby - 3

Pictus Cat 140.1 DJax, Stokely -3.2 & 10

BusMan 125.9 Tavaris -12.7, ADP -10.0, Rice -7.4

by_the_sea_wannabe 123.1 C Taylor -9.8, Longwell -9.4

Lash 118.3 Driver - 0, James Jones -1.5, Lee -5.6

Fake_15 110.2 Raiders -8

Usual21 107.7 Vikings -6

Raider Nation 66.0 Russell -3.8, McFadden -5.9

Who's left and what they have to overcome to be a starter.Simpler for some, more complicated for others (Bramel)

 

[BusMan]

Week 1 Results

John Norton 		  11-0-0Jene Bramel 		  10-1-0Bagger 				9-2-0crippler 			  8-3-0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~BusMan 				7-4-0Pictus Cat 			6-5-0bucki4life 			5-6-0Lash 				  4-7-0by_the_sea_wannabe 	3-8-0Fake_15 			   2-9-0Usual21 			   1-10-0Raider Nation 		 0-11-0

 

[Crippler]

So do you still feel Norton and my team are out of this.

Looks like one will have 2 losses after this week and the other sits with 3 after breaking the 200 point mark. Just need 5 more wins in 3 weeks to beat Busman projection for my team.

Amazing that I did 3 drafts and felt the worst about the 3 of them after the draft here but after week 3, feel the most optimistic about this one and feel that they are my best RB core despite being the one I did not draft a 2nd one early in. At least still in the running in all 3.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Young, Vince TEN QB 8.02 Glum

Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 11.11 Injured, Out

Edwards, Trent BUF QB 12.02

Three late with good schedules for first 5 weeks.

Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 1.02

Turner, Michael ATL RB 3.11

White, LenDale TEN RB 5.11

Faulk, Kevin NEP RB 17.11

Perry, Chris CIN RB 21.11

Selected 2nd pick from the 4th KDS slot to get LT or Westy PPR. Turner and White seemed value with a couple PPR guys.

Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.11

Welker, Wes NEP WR 4.02

Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 6.02

Clayton, Mark BAL WR 10.02

Jackson, Darrell DEN WR 13.11

Williams, Roydell TEN WR 14.02

Booker, Marty CHI WR 16.02

Stokley, Brandon DEN WR 19.11

KDS 2nd pick hoping to get a Cin WR because I think they will do well in the first 5 weeks.

8 total to and only Welker at 4.02 with a bye to keep points churining into the 3 WR/Flex spot.

Heap, Todd BAL TE 7.11 Yea, Surprise Bye week

Crumpler, Alge TEN TE 9.11

Just took them when the value seemed there. Will be interesting to see if the backup fills the flex in this best ball any week.

Brown, Kris HOU PK 20.02 Yea, Surprise Bye week

Nedney, Joe SFO PK 22.02

Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 15.11 Yea, Surprise Bye week

Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 18.02

My WR's have taken a beating.Curtis - OUT

Ocho - 5 Shoulder

DJax, Stokely - Emergence of Royal, Marshall suspension reduction

Booker - Not a starter

Roydell Williams - Not doing much

Welker - appears healthy Ribs, may miss time

Clayton - didn't lose WR2 spot Yea, Surprise Bye week

Well, having Chris Perry is a small comfort.

I'ld cry, but I just keep laughing.

 

[Crippler]

I'll post my team write up later, but for now I wanted to throw out how I see this league shaking down.

Team				   W		LJene Bramel		   48	   7by_the_sea_wannabe	45	  10 fake_15			   36	  19BusMan				34	  21 Pictus Cat			32	  23 Raider Nation		 30	  25 John Norton		   27	  28 Lash				  24	  31 [b]bagger				21	  34 [/b]bucki4life			17	  38  crippler			   8	  47 Usual21				8	  47

lol

Wow. Cant believe at one time my team was picked to win a total of 8 games. I got equal to that at least in each week. Amazing how things can change because my win total did keep going up in the dominator each time you ran it.

 

[Crippler]

Could be worse Pictus, You could be Raider Nation who will have low score 2 weeks in a row and no Tom Brady left

At least you got Trent who is playing very well.

 

[BusMan]

Week 3 Results

BusMan 			   11-0-0John Norton 		  10-1-0Raider Nation 		 9-2-0Jene Bramel 		   8-3-0bucki4life 			7-4-0Usual21 			   6-5-0Lash 				  5-6-0Pictus Cat 			4-7-0Bagger 				3-8-0by_the_sea_wannabe 	2-9-0crippler 			 1-10-0Fake_15 			  0-11-0

A very tight week at the top: top six finishers were within 11.4 points of each other.

 

[BusMan]

Overall Standings (through Week 3)

John Norton 29- 4-0Jene Bramel 28- 5-0BusMan 24- 9-0bucki4life 21-12-0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~crippler 20-13-0Usual21 14-19-0Lash 14-19-0Bagger 13-20-0Pictus Cat 12-21-0by_the_sea_wannabe 9-24-0Raider Nation 9-24-0Fake_15 5-28-0Crippler falls out of the Top 4 thanks to a 1-10 week coupled with my 11-0 mark.22 games left to play, and no one is mathematically eliminated yet. I'm guessing that'll change next week.

 

[BusMan]

So do you still feel Norton and my team are out of this. Looks like one will have 2 losses after this week and the other sits with 3 after breaking the 200 point mark. Just need 5 more wins in 3 weeks to beat Busman projection for my team. Amazing that I did 3 drafts and felt the worst about the 3 of them after the draft here but after week 3, feel the most optimistic about this one and feel that they are my best RB core despite being the one I did not draft a 2nd one early in. At least still in the running in all 3.

My projections, as I clearly stated, were of course wildly inaccurate. I was simply trying to provoke some conversation before the season started, and have some fun while doing it. Norton is obviously exceeding my expectations, but so are you. Right now it looks like we have 5 squads competing for those 4 advancement spots---and you're the one on the outside looking in currently. But all that can and likely will change over the next two weeks.It'll be fun to watch.And good drafting, Crippler.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Overall Standings (through Week 3)

John Norton 		 29- 4-0Jene Bramel 		 28- 5-0BusMan 			  24- 9-0bucki4life 		  21-12-0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~crippler 			20-13-0Usual21 			 14-19-0Lash 				14-19-0Bagger 			  13-20-0Pictus Cat 		  12-21-0by_the_sea_wannabe	9-24-0Raider Nation 		9-24-0Fake_15 			  5-28-0

Crippler falls out of the Top 4 thanks to a 1-10 week coupled with my 11-0 mark.22 games left to play, and no one is mathematically eliminated yet. I'm guessing that'll change next week.

So your saying there's a chance...

 

[BusMan]

Week 4 scores through the Sunday night game...

Team W4 Pts W4 Rec.Proj. Overall Rec.Proj.(Rank-GB) Rem. Players (Pts needed to score) by_the_sea_wannabe 183.5 11-00 20-24 (07 -17.0) Jeff Reed (6.2) Jene Bramel 183.3 09-02 37-07 (01 -00.0) Derrick Mason (8.2/19.0), Demetrius Williams (8.2/19.0)Bagger 180.8 10-01 24-21 (06 -13.0) Joe Flacco (49.5), Rashard Mendenhall (7.6) BusMan 159.9 08-03 32-12 (03 -05.0) PIT DEF (12.0)crippler 149.4 07-04 27-17 (04T-10.0) Hines Ward (6.2)bucki4life 140.9 06-05 27-17 (04T-10.0) Santonio Holmes (5.4)John Norton 122.4 05-06 34-10 (02 -03.0) NONEFake_15 119.9 04-07 09-35 (12 -28.0) NONEUsual21 111.4 02-09 16-28 (08 -21.0) Willie Parker (8.3)Raider Nation 97.0 03-08 12-32 (10T-25.0) Willis McGahee (4.7/6.1), Ray Rice (4.7/6.1)Pictus Cat 91.7 00-11 12-32 (10T-25.0) Todd Heap (0.0), Mark Clayton (6.1), BAL DEF (4.0)Lash 86.8 01-10 15-29 (09 -22.0) Ben Roethlisberger(0.0), Heath Miller (1.6) Analysis: Lash, Raider Nation, Pictus Cat, and Fake_15 should be mathematically eliminated after tonight's game. That leaves eight teams playing for four spots. Jene is up 10 on 4th place, meaning he would have to go 0-11, and both crippler and bucki4life would have to finish some version of one-two next week for the doctor to even have a tiebreaker shot to miss advancement. Actually, I don't believe he'd lose the tiebreaker, so I'm going to go ahead and...

BREAKING NEWS: BusMan projects Jene Bramel will advance.

...so we really have seven teams playing for three spots:

Team W4 Pts W4 Rec.Proj. Overall Rec.Proj.(Rank-GB) Rem. Players (Pts needed to score) John Norton 122.4 05-06 34-10 (02 -00.0) NONEBusMan 159.9 08-03 32-12 (03 -02.0) PIT DEF (12.0)crippler 149.4 07-04 27-17 (04T-07.0) Hines Ward (6.2)bucki4life 140.9 06-05 27-17 (04T-07.0) Santonio Holmes (5.4)Bagger 180.8 10-01 24-21 (06 -10.0) Joe Flacco (49.5), Rashard Mendenhall (7.6) by_the_sea_wannabe 183.5 11-00 20-24 (07 -14.0) Jeff Reed (6.2) Usual21 111.4 02-09 16-28 (08 -18.0) Willie Parker (8.3)Week 5 BYEs:Norton - Jerricho Cotchery, Kellen Winslow

BusMan - NONE

crippler - Donnie Avery, Zach Miller

bucki4life - Marc Bulger, Thomas Jones, Braylon Edwards, Javon Walker

Bagger - Brett Favre, Justin Fargas

by_the_sea_wannabe - NONE

Usual21 - Derek Anderson, Kellen Clemens, Steven Jackson, Leon Washington, Dustin Keller, Josh Brown

Now that I'm looking at it, seems like Usual21 doesn't really have much of a shot either. So we've narrowed it down to six teams for three advancement spots. Norton and BusMan seem to be in good shape to move on, but the fourth spot is much more up in the air.

Will Norton and BusMan be able to hold on and get their tickets punched?

Will it come down to crippler vs. bucki4life?

Will baggers' WR depth push him into the Top 4 in Week 5?

Could by_the_sea_wannabee put together two crazy weeks in a row to make a final playoff push?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Assuming my math is correct....

Jene Bramel 48-7

BusMan 38-17

John Norton 35-20

crippler 32-23

...are advancing to Leg 2.

Bagger had a huge MNF run to a 10-1 record this week, but fell 3.2 points short of an 11-0 week and overtaking crippler. Fake_15, who had the worst record entering W5, went 11-0 and played spoiler. Bagger's 10-1 record was good enough to equal crippler's 32-23 record, only to lose the total points tiebreaker 790.4 to 747.3.

Good luck to everyone in Leg 2.

Final standings

Bramel 48-7

BusMan 38-17

Norton 35-20

crippler 32-23

Bagger 32-23

bytheseawannabe 27-28

bucki4life 27-28

Usual21 20-35

Fake 15 20-35

Pictus Cat 19-36

Lash 19-36

Raider Nation 13-42

 

[BusMan]

Wanted to update this as well.

Team W LJene Bramel 52 3by_the_sea_wannabe 40 15BusMan 33 22bucki4life 29 26 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~bagger 28 27 Raider Nation 26 29 Lash 24 31 Pictus Cat 24 31 crippler 24 31 John Norton 22 33 fake_15 20 35Usual21 8 47

there is no way anyone gets out of round one with less than 10 losses.also, i may be remembering wrong but i thought round 1 was 4 weeks, you have it going 5?

maybe it is 5...i haven't looked at the rules in over a month.

i still think this methodology isn't taking into consideration my RBBC and warner's strong PPG #s when he starts, and i would bet money my WRs are better than the DD thinks they are. but we'll just let it play out. people doubted my QBs as well as a weak link for my team. the combination of favre/warner/mcnabb should consistantly be towards the top end of weekly production.

Time for some evaluation of my projections.The Good:

I had Jene correct as the run away winner, and he even managed to lose less than 10 games.

Predicting myself to move on gave me 50% of the advancers picked correctly.

Bagger at 5 was also a hit.

The Bad:

btsw and bucki finished out of the top 4, instead finishing at 6 and 7.

Raider Nation had a much tougher go than I though they would.

I definitely didn't give crippler enough credit, especially early on. Dude drafted completely unprepared and ends up moving on---very impressive.

It was a fun 5 weeks guys. Hopefully some of us League 4 advancers will make it to the finals---that would be cool.

Oh and one last note---the Staff really appears to be crushing this thing overall. No wonder they get paid the big

 

[Pictus Cat]

Good luck to the progressers!

Thanks for the discussion.

This contest was fun!

We'll see what FBG has in store next year!