Unemployment rate jumps to 9.7% (1 Viewer)

[Andy Dufresne]

Link

Job losses ebb, but unemployment up

Unemployment jumps to a 26-year high of 9.7%, even as employers cut the smallest number of jobs since August 2008.

Last Updated: September 4, 2009: 8:46 AM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Employers trimmed fewer jobs in August than they did the prior month, but the unemployment rate jumped to a 26-year high, the government reported Friday.

There was a net loss of 216,000 jobs in the month, according to the Labor Department. That was the fewest jobs lost since August 2008 and lower than a revised loss of 276,000 jobs in July. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com predicted a loss of 230,000 jobs in August.

The unemployment rate, which in July fell for the first time in 15 months, turned higher again, jumping to 9.7% from 9.4% in July. This is the highest the unemployment rate has been since June 1983. Economists forecast that the jobless rate hit 9.5% in August

As someone who was just recently re-employed after a 9 month layoff, all I can say is that that sucks.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

As someone who was just recently re-employed after a 9 month layoff,

Congrats

 

[sandy]

Thank God in never got above 8%...

 

[BoneYardDog]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...

What a joke he is...

 

[Chadstroma]

Wooohooooo! We lost 60,000 less jobs than the previous month!

 

[zamboni]

As someone who was just recently re-employed after a 9 month layoff

That's great to hear - same for me after 5 months. We're definitely among the lucky ones.

 

[Harry Manback]

Wooohooooo! We lost 60,000 less jobs than the previous month!

 

[Parrothead]

Wooohooooo! We lost 60,000 less jobs than the previous month!

you bootyholes don't get it-- these jobs were SAVED!!

 

[Ozymandias]

Wooohooooo! We lost 60,000 less jobs than the previous month!

you bootyholes don't get it-- these jobs were SAVED!!

If it hadn't been for Obama, unemployment would be at 50%. Millions of jobs have been saved...or is it billions?

 

[Parrothead]

Wooohooooo! We lost 60,000 less jobs than the previous month!

you bootyholes don't get it-- these jobs were SAVED!!

If it hadn't been for Obama, unemployment would be at 50%. Millions of jobs have been saved...or is it billions?

boatloads.. at least according to Biden

 

[The Big Guy]

still out of work. This does not help lift the spirits for sure.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

still out of work. This does not help lift the spirits for sure.

Hang in there, bro.

 

[Socrates11]

But the economy is recovering. Full employment is right around the corner!

 

[Death Bytes]

I feel stimulated.

 

[johnnycakes]

Get a job, you lazy bum!

 

[greedygoat]

We're firing 25% of our workforce today.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

We're firing 25% of our workforce today.

Oof. How many people is that?

 

[Ozymandias]

We're firing 25% of our workforce today.

Oof. How many people is that?

Probably 1.

 

[greedygoat]

We're firing 25% of our workforce today.

Oof. How many people is that?

Thankfully it's only 2. I work for a small insurance agency that can no longer afford our receptionist and 1 of our 4 CSR's.

 

[Orange Crush]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

And awayyyy we go!

 

[StrikeS2k]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

 

[zamboni]

For the job hunters, the silver lining is that the -216 is a net number, so that there are being jobs created. The overall impact is still decidely negative, but at least getting a bit better.

 

[Fennis]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

I agree with this general point. Obama Administration mismanaged expectations. 10% unemployment was a likely scenario. He should have backed off his campaign promises and tried to set more realistic expectations. The stimulus could have been structured differently and more front weighted. They misread the economic turn around. The good news is the economy is clearly turning around and unemployment should peak by the end of this year.

 

[jonessed]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

I agree with this general point. Obama Administration mismanaged expectations. 10% unemployment was a likely scenario. He should have backed off his campaign promises and tried to set more realistic expectations. The stimulus could have been structured differently and more front weighted. They misread the economic turn around. The good news is the economy is clearly turning around and unemployment should peak by the end of this year.

Does it really matter if the unemployment rate peaks at 10% and then stays there? You need legitimate GDP growth to move the unemployment rate back down (2.5%+). GDP growth that isn't expected for several years.I'm finally starting to see articles pointing out the absurdity of the optimist claims on numbers that are "better than expected", but fail to point out that they are still pretty damn crappy. We aren't almost out of this. We have a loooong way to go. We may not be sinking anymore, but we sunk so low that slow growth is going to feel like a recession anyway.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...

What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

Not Exactly

 

[tommyGunZ]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

Link to the "promise"? Why do you make this crap up Strike?

 

[Orange Crush]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

So you have no problems with his policies, only that he was too much of a cheerleader about the economy and mismanaged expectations (along with just about everyone else weighing in on the problem - especially the Republicans who at the time were screaming about how no stimulus package was even needed).

 

[StrikeS2k]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

Link to the "promise"? Why do you make this crap up Strike?

LOL. Here he acknowledges he was wrong about the 8% number. How could he be wrong about it if he never promised it in the first place?

KATIE COURIC: Mr. President, if the stimulus plan isn't really working – at least for now – why should Americans sign off on spending billions of dollars on health care reform? BARACK OBAMA: I disagree that the stimulus plan is not working. Think about what – where we've been, and since that time we have stabilized the financial markets. We have created the ability of businesses to borrow again. We have prevented thousands of layoffs in states all across the country. Are we where we need to be? Absolutely not. Would things be much worse if we had not put the recovery package in place? Absolutely. COURIC: Later outside, I asked the President about the current unemployment rate, which is at 9.5%. Your administration projected that with the stimulus package, as you know, unemployment could be kept under 8%. OBAMA: Yeah. COURIC: Well, that was then, this is now. OBAMA: Yeah, we blew through that pretty quickly. And I think that, you know, in fairness to my economists, nobody – when we were first sworn in – anticipated that in the first three months, we would lose 700,000 jobs per month. So, you know, I think the severity and the depth of the recession was something that, you know, really exceeded everybody's expectations. COURIC: Vice President Biden said you had, in fact, misread the economy, so- OBAMA: Well, that's what he was referring to, was- COURIC: Right. But who's to say you're reading the tea leaves accurately now? OBAMA: Meaning what? COURIC: In the future when you make these projections and estimates and cost savings. I mean, it's a pretty dicey proposition, don't you think, to predict economics into the future? OBAMA: Well – well, if – if what you're saying is – is that economists are often wrong, you're absolutely right about that. And you know – but that can't be a rationale for inaction.

 

[jonessed]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

So you have no problems with his policies, only that he was too much of a cheerleader about the economy and mismanaged expectations (along with just about everyone else weighing in on the problem - especially the Republicans who at the time were screaming about how no stimulus package was even needed).

They wanted a smaller, tax rebate based stimulus that could be disseminated quickly, pointing out that the debt-load a big bill created would actually worsen the long-term effects of the recession (a point the CBO backed them up on). Given that only 10% of the stimulus is even in play I'm not so sure they were wrong.

 

[Fennis]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

I agree with this general point. Obama Administration mismanaged expectations. 10% unemployment was a likely scenario. He should have backed off his campaign promises and tried to set more realistic expectations. The stimulus could have been structured differently and more front weighted. They misread the economic turn around. The good news is the economy is clearly turning around and unemployment should peak by the end of this year.

Does it really matter if the unemployment rate peaks at 10% and then stays there? You need legitimate GDP growth to move the unemployment rate back down (2.5%+). GDP growth that isn't expected for several years.I'm finally starting to see articles pointing out the absurdity of the optimist claims on numbers that are "better than expected", but fail to point out that they are still pretty damn crappy. We aren't almost out of this. We have a loooong way to go. We may not be sinking anymore, but we sunk so low that slow growth is going to feel like a recession anyway.

I agree we have a long way to go. I am optimistic, but it is painful, and many, many individuals will continue to suffer.Although I was against a stimulus package as big as what was passed, I think we are going to start seeing serious growth out of it. Goldman Sachs said there was 2-3% positive boost in the annual GDP (in Q2 and Q3) because of the stimulus. Even if that is optimistic, the package is back loaded.The moderate to moderate high inflation that I think will happen will also help the economy grow. I think we will see better than expected growth in 2010 and 2011.

 

[StrikeS2k]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

So you have no problems with his policies, only that he was too much of a cheerleader about the economy and mismanaged expectations (along with just about everyone else weighing in on the problem - especially the Republicans who at the time were screaming about how no stimulus package was even needed).

No, I have problems with his policies as well. He used a FALSE PROMISE to pass something that was a huge waste of money, and they still haven't gone back and fixed the GOVERNMENT policies/laws that helped cause the problems in the first place. Not to mention half the stimulus bill was PORK. Oh, and as has been mentioned only a small percentage of the money is actually in play so giving major credit to something that hasn't even been used much is kinda dumb.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

So you have no problems with his policies, only that he was too much of a cheerleader about the economy and mismanaged expectations (along with just about everyone else weighing in on the problem - especially the Republicans who at the time were screaming about how no stimulus package was even needed).

Experts expected this. But a President who acknowledged it would have been accused of talking down the economy. What would people rather have, a President who says unemployment will go to 8 percent when it is headed to 10 percent, or a President who says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, a few weeks before it basically collapsed?

 

[siffoin]

TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 335,000 Jobs in August and 5.9 Million Jobs in Past Year

Posted : Wed, 02 Sep 2009 10:30:41 GMT

Author : TrimTabs Investment Research

Category : Press Release

Massive Job Losses Lead to Big Drops in Wages and Savings: Wages Fall 4.1% Year-over-Year in August, and M2 Savings Drops Record $94.6 Billion in Past Three Months SAUSALITO, Calif., Sept. 2

SAUSALITO, Calif., Sept. 2 /PRNewswire/ -- TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that the U.S. economy lost 335,000 jobs in August, which is nearly 50% more than the current consensus estimate of 225,000 jobs lost. In the past twelve months, the U.S. economy has lost 5.9 million jobs, the largest annual job loss in records dating back to 1970.

"A full year has passed since AIG and Lehman Brothers collapsed, yet there is no end in sight to massive job losses," said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs. "The economy lost at least 300,000 jobs in each of the past 12 months."

TrimTabs' employment estimates are based on analysis of daily income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury from all salaried U.S. employees. Historically, TrimTabs' employment estimates have been more accurate than those of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In a research note, TrimTabs explained that large job losses are contributing to huge declines in wages and savings. Based on daily tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury, wages plummeted 4.1% year-over-year in August, matching the decline in Q2 2009.

TrimTabs also pointed out that M2 savings--which consists of bank savings, small-denomination certificates of deposit, and retail money market funds--dropped $94.6 billion in the past three months, the largest three-month decline on record.

"Consumers are yanking record amounts of money out of savings vehicles as they cope with the worst economic slump since the 1930s," noted Biderman. "The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that the savings rate was 4.2% in July is dead wrong."

TrimTabs explained that massive defaults on mortgages are spreading to commercial real estate loans, credit cards, and commercial and industrial loans, dashing widespread hopes for a quick economic rebound.

"While many investors are convinced the recession is over, real-time indicators show the economy has not yet bottomed, let alone started to recover," said Biderman.

TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity--including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows--as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections. Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990. For more information, please visit www.TrimTabs.com.

 

[Chadstroma]

I am just happy we passed that stimulus to avoid the recession that we would not recover from. I am also thankful for all the millions upon millions of jobs saved... or was it billions? Trillions? I get confused. So many numbers made up on a daily basis it is hard to keep up.

 

[Chadstroma]

Experts expected this. But a President who acknowledged it would have been accused of talking down the economy. What would people rather have, a President who says unemployment will go to 8 percent when it is headed to 10 percent, or a President who says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, a few weeks before it basically collapsed?

Yes, you only talk gloom and doom before you pass your pork bill. Once you pass it, then you talk up the economy. That is political manipulation 101. Duh!

 

[StrikeS2k]

Experts expected this. But a President who acknowledged it would have been accused of talking down the economy. What would people rather have, a President who says unemployment will go to 8 percent when it is headed to 10 percent lies, or a President who says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, a few weeks before it basically collapsed tells the truth?

I'll take the guy who tells the truth every time. The problem with Obama is he talks badly about things when they aren't so bad while talking positive about things that are horrible. So, basically, I've just come to take the opposite view of everything coming out of his mouth. Should I have to do that with MY President?

 

[jonessed]

Thank goodness for all the jobs BO has saved...What a joke he is...

And just what should Obama have done differently?

Not made promises that unemployment would NOT rise above 8% if his stimulus was passed. See, if you make unqualified promises to get your way and then those promises don't come true people might just make fun of you. Oh, and having Biden out there talking like an idiot doesn't help either.

So you have no problems with his policies, only that he was too much of a cheerleader about the economy and mismanaged expectations (along with just about everyone else weighing in on the problem - especially the Republicans who at the time were screaming about how no stimulus package was even needed).

Experts expected this. But a President who acknowledged it would have been accused of talking down the economy. What would people rather have, a President who says unemployment will go to 8 percent when it is headed to 10 percent, or a President who says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, a few weeks before it basically collapsed?

He had no problem talking down the economy his first few months. He had to be lambasted for it by the media, his own party, critics, Hell, even Clinton before he eventually stopped.

 

[Chadstroma]

He had no problem talking down the economy his first few months. He had to be lambasted for it by the media, his own party, critics, Hell, even Clinton before he eventually stopped.

Actually, all that it took was passing the 'stimulus' bill.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

I am just happy we passed that stimulus to avoid the recession that we would not recover from. I am also thankful for all the millions upon millions of jobs saved... or was it billions? Trillions? I get confused. So many numbers made up on a daily basis it is hard to keep up.

I understand that the idea of unemployment as a lagging indicator is beyond some. Back here in the fall of '82, while deciding whether to go early with Dan Fouts or wait and draft Kenny Anderson, I was posting about the unemployment rate continuing to rise despite the Reagan tax cuts of a year earlier.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

The most ridiculous thing is that unemployment isn't really ~10%. If you include "discouraged workers" who have been out of work less than one year, the rate rises to ~17%. If you include the discouraged workers that haven't worked in more than a year, which were "defined away" by the BLS under the Clinton Administration c1994, unemployment is ~20%.

My humble suggestion is that we define only those who have jobs today as being part of the labor pool. That way we can be at full employment immediately.

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

Experts expected this. But a President who acknowledged it would have been accused of talking down the economy. What would people rather have, a President who says unemployment will go to 8 percent when it is headed to 10 percent lies, or a President who says the fundamentals of the economy are strong, a few weeks before it basically collapsed tells the truth?

I'll take the guy who tells the truth every time. The problem with Obama is he talks badly about things when they aren't so bad while talking positive about things that are horrible. So, basically, I've just come to take the opposite view of everything coming out of his mouth. Should I have to do that with MY President?

I would suggest that if you did that as a default with ALL politicians, you would be better off in the long run.

 

[Chadstroma]

I am just happy we passed that stimulus to avoid the recession that we would not recover from. I am also thankful for all the millions upon millions of jobs saved... or was it billions? Trillions? I get confused. So many numbers made up on a daily basis it is hard to keep up.

I understand that the idea of unemployment as a lagging indicator is beyond some. Back here in the fall of '82, while deciding whether to go early with Dan Fouts or wait and draft Kenny Anderson, I was posting about the unemployment rate continuing to rise despite the Reagan tax cuts of a year earlier.

Yea, I be dum and no nut wat u spek of wit lagin dicktadors.

 

[sandy]

The most ridiculous thing is that unemployment isn't really ~10%. If you include "discouraged workers" who have been out of work less than one year, the rate rises to ~17%. If you include the discouraged workers that haven't worked in more than a year, which were "defined away" by the BLS under the Clinton Administration c1994, unemployment is ~20%.My humble suggestion is that we define only those who have jobs today as being part of the labor pool. That way we can be at full employment immediately.

Don't cloud the issue with facts...

 

[bostonfred]

We've seen a steady deceleration in job losses. That's a good thing. It looks like we're approaching the bottom of a U shaped curve. But there are still job losses. That's a bad thing. Another big chunk of stimulus money is out there to create government jobs at the end of the summer. We've already debated whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but we should see some job gains. Cash for Clunkers and other programs may have been a huge waste of money, creating an artificial spike in spending, or it may have been a huge benefit, keeping factories from closing or new product development from stopping altogether. The credit markets continue to unfreeze. Consumer confidence continues to rise. The market continues to rise. Leading indicators show that the worldwide recession is ending. These all seem to be good things.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

We've seen a steady deceleration in job losses. That's a good thing. It looks like we're approaching the bottom of a U shaped curve. But there are still job losses. That's a bad thing. Another big chunk of stimulus money is out there to create government jobs at the end of the summer. We've already debated whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but we should see some job gains. Cash for Clunkers and other programs may have been a huge waste of money, creating an artificial spike in spending, or it may have been a huge benefit, keeping factories from closing or new product development from stopping altogether. The credit markets continue to unfreeze. Consumer confidence continues to rise. The market continues to rise. Leading indicators show that the worldwide recession is ending. These all seem to be good things.

I'm sorry, but you will never convince me that a government job is a "real" job. Each government job that's created by definition takes resources away from other areas.Why don't we just give everyone jobs polishing brass cannons?

"Once there was a man who held a political make-work job like so many here...shining brass cannon around a courthouse. He did this for years...but he was not getting ahead in the world. So one day he quit his job, drew out his savings, bought a brass cannon — and went into business for himself."

 

[RedmondLonghorn]

We've seen a steady deceleration in job losses. That's a good thing. It looks like we're approaching the bottom of a U shaped curve. But there are still job losses. That's a bad thing. Another big chunk of stimulus money is out there to create government jobs at the end of the summer. We've already debated whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but we should see some job gains. Cash for Clunkers and other programs may have been a huge waste of money, creating an artificial spike in spending, or it may have been a huge benefit, keeping factories from closing or new product development from stopping altogether. The credit markets continue to unfreeze. Consumer confidence continues to rise. The market continues to rise. Leading indicators show that the worldwide recession is ending. These all seem to be good things.

I don't disagree at all. But I think everybody should brace themselves for a double-dip. The GDP stats and other widely watched economic data for the second half of 2009 are going to look awesome. It has to. Economic activity basically screeched to a halt in the last couple months of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. And the credit markets hadn't been functioning AT ALL for months. New orders for everything dried up, because of the lack of demand, the lack of credit and the need of everybody in the chain of commerce to generate the cash they could be blowing down inventories.So we are going to see a rebound from that and the inventory re-stocking dynamic is going to be significant, perhaps even powerful. But once that happens, where is the final demand going to come from to sustain economic activity at a reasonable pace? So much of the consumer demand that we experienced for years was coming from the twin dynamics of increasing paper wealth (from stock market and housing market) and increasing leverage (from things like home equity loans). Those things aren't going to help this time around. The consumer still needs to de-leverage further (and is, witness the savings rate) and don't even get me started on the government.

 

[eoMMan]

It was about 13% in my county for July 2009.

 

[Death Bytes]

If we gave Detroit to Canada, then our national unemployment rate would be around 8%, which would make Obama right. I think we'll hear an anouncement in the next few days.

 

[Sheriff Bart]

We've seen a steady deceleration in job losses. That's a good thing. It looks like we're approaching the bottom of a U shaped curve. But there are still job losses. That's a bad thing. Another big chunk of stimulus money is out there to create government jobs at the end of the summer. We've already debated whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but we should see some job gains. Cash for Clunkers and other programs may have been a huge waste of money, creating an artificial spike in spending, or it may have been a huge benefit, keeping factories from closing or new product development from stopping altogether. The credit markets continue to unfreeze. Consumer confidence continues to rise. The market continues to rise. Leading indicators show that the worldwide recession is ending. These all seem to be good things.

I'm sorry, but you will never convince me that a government job is a "real" job. Each government job that's created by definition takes resources away from other areas.Why don't we just give everyone jobs polishing brass cannons?

"Once there was a man who held a political make-work job like so many here...shining brass cannon around a courthouse. He did this for years...but he was not getting ahead in the world. So one day he quit his job, drew out his savings, bought a brass cannon — and went into business for himself."

I gotta side with Andy here.