US economy thread (3 Viewers)

[Nugget]

U.S. Added Just 12K Jobs in October, Far Short of 113K Expected​

U.S. Added Just 12K Jobs in October, Far Short of 113K Expected

Just days ahead of the U.S. presidential election and Federal Reserve policy meeting, the government reported a marked weakening in the labor mark...

markets.businessinsider.com

The September report was revised down 31k jobs and August revised down 81k. This makes 7 of the last 9 months BLS has revised the job numbers down.

New report coming later today. In a meeting yesterday the 12k report from last month came up - they said 79k of the shortage was in 3 states - FL and NC (storm) and WA (strikes). We'll see if there is a bounce back. 10 year has been stickier than I would have guessed earlier this summer.

 

[Max Power]

And Black Friday was a hit again. My concern will typically be how much of this shopping spree was put on credit cards that people can't afford.

Another year, another sales record: Retailers again saw purchases hit new heights over Thanksgiving weekend, even as shoppers remain cautious about where and when to spend.

U.S. consumers dropped more than $41 billion online alone in the five days spanning Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, up 8.2% from the same period a year ago, Adobe Analytics said Tuesday. In-store and digital retail sales tracked by MasterCard rose 3.4% on Black Friday since last year, with e-commerce purchases surging 14.6%.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

When will the new jobs report come out, along with the latest revisions for the past 2 months? These reports seem to carry a lot of weight, so I'm curious to see how they will shake out and how the economy will be framed as a result.

 

[Stoneworker]

225K added in Nov
Oct revised from 12K to 36k
Unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.2%
Stocks up
Bond prices up (yields down)

CME rate probability of 25 bps cut goes from 71% to 91%

 

[SofaKings]

And Black Friday was a hit again. My concern will typically be how much of this shopping spree was put on credit cards that people can't afford.

Another year, another sales record: Retailers again saw purchases hit new heights over Thanksgiving weekend, even as shoppers remain cautious about where and when to spend.

U.S. consumers dropped more than $41 billion online alone in the five days spanning Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday, up 8.2% from the same period a year ago, Adobe Analytics said Tuesday. In-store and digital retail sales tracked by MasterCard rose 3.4% on Black Friday since last year, with e-commerce purchases surging 14.6%.

Probably a high percentage since 6 weeks ago no one could afford a hot dog.

 

[Max Power]

Inflation came in a bit higher than expected and auto insurance premiums are one of the primary reasons.

pretty insane stat at the end there. I hope these prices aren't here to stay, but it seems like they are. Cars are getting more bells and whistles and its costing everyone more.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices

Soaring insurance premiums, particularly for autos, are fueling rising consumer prices and complicating policymakers’ attempts to beat back inflation.

Inflation cooled for much of the year before picking up this fall, with insurance prices for autos, homes and medical care contributing to a 15 percent of the increase in overall consumer prices, economists say. A double-digit spike in auto-insurance prices drove the vast majority of that rise.


Indeed, November’s hotter annual inflation gain of 2.73 percent would have been much lower, closer to a 2.37 percent inflation rate, without the outsize increase to auto insurance.

“It is punching well above its weight for that contribution,” said Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard.

Insurance premiums are among a handful of stubborn costs that have yet to yield much relief for consumers, in addition to shelter costs and other services like medical care.

Car insurance has remained elevated, and it has a bigger influence on overall inflation than other types of insurance because it’s required to drive in most states. And that cost can multiply with more than half of households owning two or more cars, according to census data.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices, Hirt said.

 

[Mitchie]

Inflation came in a bit higher than expected and auto insurance premiums are one of the primary reasons.

pretty insane stat at the end there. I hope these prices aren't here to stay, but it seems like they are. Cars are getting more bells and whistles and its costing everyone more.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices

Soaring insurance premiums, particularly for autos, are fueling rising consumer prices and complicating policymakers’ attempts to beat back inflation.

Inflation cooled for much of the year before picking up this fall, with insurance prices for autos, homes and medical care contributing to a 15 percent of the increase in overall consumer prices, economists say. A double-digit spike in auto-insurance prices drove the vast majority of that rise.


Indeed, November’s hotter annual inflation gain of 2.73 percent would have been much lower, closer to a 2.37 percent inflation rate, without the outsize increase to auto insurance.

“It is punching well above its weight for that contribution,” said Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard.

Insurance premiums are among a handful of stubborn costs that have yet to yield much relief for consumers, in addition to shelter costs and other services like medical care.

Car insurance has remained elevated, and it has a bigger influence on overall inflation than other types of insurance because it’s required to drive in most states. And that cost can multiply with more than half of households owning two or more cars, according to census data.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices, Hirt said.

More related to your bells and whistles comment but just replaced a part in my car for $600, have owned cars for a long time, first time in my life if someone asked me what i got fixed I couldn't explain it to them because was a part I'd never heard of.

 

[Stoneworker]

Fun facts from today's WSJ for all the Euro-fans..

While Europe has created 14 companies worth more than $10 billion in the past 50 years, with about $400 billion of market value in total, Americans have created nearly 250 such companies, worth $30 trillion.

The median disposable U.S. household income, according to the OECD, is now 25% greater than the median German household and 60% greater than the median household in Italy.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

 

[Bri]

Did y'all know this? I'm not a political guy- Minimum wage 7ish in some states 15 in others.

Minimum wage set to rise to $15, beyond in 23 states next year. Where does Oklahoma stand?

While 23 states are raising their minimum wage rates in 2025, Oklahoma still has another year and a half to decide whether to join the movement.

www.oklahoman.com

 

[Bri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Yeah, unless it's gas, the price doesn't go down. Smaller packages, less product, some have the appearance of going down but prices don't go down.
I said during those stimulus payments that the govt will definitely get their money back and then heard a zillion people say the same thing, googled and saw people had written similar and I think we all knew the govt would- like everyone saying it's gonna rain.

People buying temu junk gets made fun of but happens regularly and I assume because that's all they can afford or something logical.

I've taught my kids to cook. Now we've all learned how to make some things from scratch.
I've saved a lot of money fixing things myself and cutting my own firewood and...I find myself teaching them things $ related.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

 

[culdeus]

It's normal in many other areas to have generational housing. Actually don't get why that isnt seen as a solution parents can provide that isn't cash handouts. Way more efficient.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Yeah, unless it's gas, the price doesn't go down. Smaller packages, less product, some have the appearance of going down but prices don't go down.
I said during those stimulus payments that the govt will definitely get their money back and then heard a zillion people say the same thing, googled and saw people had written similar and I think we all knew the govt would- like everyone saying it's gonna rain.

People buying temu junk gets made fun of but happens regularly and I assume because that's all they can afford or something logical.

I've taught my kids to cook. Now we've all learned how to make some things from scratch.
I've saved a lot of money fixing things myself and cutting my own firewood and...I find myself teaching them things $ related.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

There appear to be a few generations who don't understand how basic economics work. All we can do as individuals is teach those learning from us how economics work. My "dad" spent a ton of time bringing me up with a hearty respect for money and finances. My brothers and sister too. It started with teen checking accounts and jobs (if we wanted them) early. Even my youngest brother (7) has a wallet and piggy bank to learn from. The same thing can be said for civics too. My dad reminisces of his time with "School House Rock". But my brother (17) isn't required to take any sort of financial or civics classes to get out of high school. That's just stupid.

 

[Sand]

Fun facts from today's WSJ for all the Euro-fans..

While Europe has created 14 companies worth more than $10 billion in the past 50 years, with about $400 billion of market value in total, Americans have created nearly 250 such companies, worth $30 trillion.

The median disposable U.S. household income, according to the OECD, is now 25% greater than the median German household and 60% greater than the median household in Italy.

If you look at GDP per capita Germany is roughly equal to Mississippi, our poorest state. Canada is roughly equal to West Virginia. And DC is off the charts (rent seeking galore there).

Ranked: U.S. States vs. G7 Countries by GDP per Capita

Why compare American states vs G7 economies? Answer: for a granular look at how America has left its peers in the dust.

www.visualcapitalist.com

 

[The Duff Man]

A trade war with Canada and Mexico is going to hurt inflation and be very bad for several states that do substantial trade with those countries.

Hoping this can be avoided.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

Inflation came in a bit higher than expected and auto insurance premiums are one of the primary reasons.

pretty insane stat at the end there. I hope these prices aren't here to stay, but it seems like they are. Cars are getting more bells and whistles and its costing everyone more.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices

Soaring insurance premiums, particularly for autos, are fueling rising consumer prices and complicating policymakers’ attempts to beat back inflation.

Inflation cooled for much of the year before picking up this fall, with insurance prices for autos, homes and medical care contributing to a 15 percent of the increase in overall consumer prices, economists say. A double-digit spike in auto-insurance prices drove the vast majority of that rise.


Indeed, November’s hotter annual inflation gain of 2.73 percent would have been much lower, closer to a 2.37 percent inflation rate, without the outsize increase to auto insurance.

“It is punching well above its weight for that contribution,” said Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard.

Insurance premiums are among a handful of stubborn costs that have yet to yield much relief for consumers, in addition to shelter costs and other services like medical care.

Car insurance has remained elevated, and it has a bigger influence on overall inflation than other types of insurance because it’s required to drive in most states. And that cost can multiply with more than half of households owning two or more cars, according to census data.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices, Hirt said.

More related to your bells and whistles comment but just replaced a part in my car for $600, have owned cars for a long time, first time in my life if someone asked me what i got fixed I couldn't explain it to them because was a part I'd never heard of.

Faulty Fetzer valve?

 

[dkp993]

Inflation came in a bit higher than expected and auto insurance premiums are one of the primary reasons.

pretty insane stat at the end there. I hope these prices aren't here to stay, but it seems like they are. Cars are getting more bells and whistles and its costing everyone more.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices

Soaring insurance premiums, particularly for autos, are fueling rising consumer prices and complicating policymakers’ attempts to beat back inflation.

Inflation cooled for much of the year before picking up this fall, with insurance prices for autos, homes and medical care contributing to a 15 percent of the increase in overall consumer prices, economists say. A double-digit spike in auto-insurance prices drove the vast majority of that rise.


Indeed, November’s hotter annual inflation gain of 2.73 percent would have been much lower, closer to a 2.37 percent inflation rate, without the outsize increase to auto insurance.

“It is punching well above its weight for that contribution,” said Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard.

Insurance premiums are among a handful of stubborn costs that have yet to yield much relief for consumers, in addition to shelter costs and other services like medical care.

Car insurance has remained elevated, and it has a bigger influence on overall inflation than other types of insurance because it’s required to drive in most states. And that cost can multiply with more than half of households owning two or more cars, according to census data.

Since just before the pandemic in December 2019, consumers have seen a roughly 51 percent jump in auto-insurance prices, Hirt said.

More related to your bells and whistles comment but just replaced a part in my car for $600, have owned cars for a long time, first time in my life if someone asked me what i got fixed I couldn't explain it to them because was a part I'd never heard of.

Faulty Fetzer valve?

Come on guys…. it’s all ball bearings nowadays

 

[Jayrod]

I have no data behind it, but my gut says the Trump presidency will start off with some economic difficulty, but end up better overall after the 4 years. Maybe tariffs, trade wars or actual wars, but I expect some instability in the early part of 2025 that lingers for a couple years followed by a nice rebound by 2028.

It's been a nice run lately, but I'm very bearish about the near future.

 

[Sand]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Increasing taxes is deflationary - not likely to happen, though. We'll see what kind of money dumping we get. No telling. That one is definitely inflationary as we learned very pointedly over the last few years.

 

[Brunell4MVP]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

Our kids are doing great in their early 20s, but I think the bolded has become fact. Unless absolutely necessary selling real property has become a bad idea. If it's paid off, then it's great rental income for the next generation. If it isn't you likely have a historically low interest rate anyway. It's also somewhere to live if they so desire. It's also an appreciating asset, no matter how slow it appreciates. And selling our family farm ... not gonna happen even though it's in the middle of nowhere. We will sharecrop the land with people that farm much better than us, but we still hold the asset and the proceeds from sharecropping should cover the taxes. It again is an appreciating asset and somewhere for a ton of family to move in a pinch.

I think the young generation has yet to see investments go down. It will happen ... whether its crypto, S&P, prolonged inflation, a large war, recession, whatever ... like all these multi-millionaires borrowing against their own options and stock at low interest rates. Much like the CDOs of the housing crash in 2008 ... works great until it doesn't. Could see that mostly unregulated issue becoming a problem.

I think medical insurance might be as much of an issue as housing in job centers. The cost is out of control. Someone needs to get a handle on it. One thing that would help is more doctors. 8 years to get through undergrad and med college costs a ton. And seems ridiculous for certain fields. I mean, seems it could be compressed to 5 years, cost far less, and be more enticing a career for a lot of smart people. It's really a supply problem. Supply more doctors, pharmacists, surgeons, researchers, etc and the costs can come down. I don't really care if my eye doctor or dermatologist knocked out their bio degree. I just want them to be an expert in their field. That doesn't take 8 years.

 

[Stoneworker]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

We'll see what kind of money dumping we get. No telling. That one is definitely inflationary as we learned very pointedly over the last few years.

Actually, with a deficit running near $2 trillion/year we're already getting substantial money dumping without any formal fiscal stimulus.

And that number is very unlikely to come down anytime soon due to a) low probability spending cuts, b) high probability tax cuts and c) annual interest on the national debt continuing to skyrocket due to higher Treasury auction interest rates

 

[Terminalxylem]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

Our kids are doing great in their early 20s, but I think the bolded has become fact. Unless absolutely necessary selling real property has become a bad idea. If it's paid off, then it's great rental income for the next generation. If it isn't you likely have a historically low interest rate anyway. It's also somewhere to live if they so desire. It's also an appreciating asset, no matter how slow it appreciates. And selling our family farm ... not gonna happen even though it's in the middle of nowhere. We will sharecrop the land with people that farm much better than us, but we still hold the asset and the proceeds from sharecropping should cover the taxes. It again is an appreciating asset and somewhere for a ton of family to move in a pinch.

I think the young generation has yet to see investments go down. It will happen ... whether its crypto, S&P, prolonged inflation, a large war, recession, whatever ... like all these multi-millionaires borrowing against their own options and stock at low interest rates. Much like the CDOs of the housing crash in 2008 ... works great until it doesn't. Could see that mostly unregulated issue becoming a problem.

I think medical insurance might be as much of an issue as housing in job centers. The cost is out of control. Someone needs to get a handle on it. One thing that would help is more doctors. 8 years to get through undergrad and med college costs a ton. And seems ridiculous for certain fields. I mean, seems it could be compressed to 5 years, cost far less, and be more enticing a career for a lot of smart people. It's really a supply problem. Supply more doctors, pharmacists, surgeons, researchers, etc and the costs can come down. I don't really care if my eye doctor or dermatologist knocked out their bio degree. I just want them to be an expert in their field. That doesn't take 8 years.

Even if one skipped college altogether, med school + ophthalmology or dermatology training takes 8 years.

Agree we need more physicians though. Probably end up with more nurse practitioners and physician assistants instead.

 

[Max Power]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Yeah, unless it's gas, the price doesn't go down. Smaller packages, less product, some have the appearance of going down but prices don't go down.
I said during those stimulus payments that the govt will definitely get their money back and then heard a zillion people say the same thing, googled and saw people had written similar and I think we all knew the govt would- like everyone saying it's gonna rain.

People buying temu junk gets made fun of but happens regularly and I assume because that's all they can afford or something logical.

I've taught my kids to cook. Now we've all learned how to make some things from scratch.
I've saved a lot of money fixing things myself and cutting my own firewood and...I find myself teaching them things $ related.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

My unit just received a security warning about Temu and the Temu app. Temu will sell your information and put your credit card number at risk to be compromised. The app will also track your data/movement and may even record keystrokes. Deleting the app doesn't get rid of the tracking. That was just an FYI for anyone thinking about Temu.

I view buying land as a solid investment strategy. I'm not going crazy with it, but I've purchased a conjoining lot more for privacy than anything else. I've also picked up a 5 acre lot that is a bit off the beaten path for a pretty good deal. We have four teenagers and will probably put a starter home on that land someday. Starter homes are one of the hardest things to find in my area these days.

 

[ChiefD]

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

This is part of the reason I moved to Wisconsin. We bought 8 acres - 50% timber and 50% meadow. I have enough room to grow my own food if necessary. I'm on a well, but I also have a spring that comes from up hill somewhere and creates a small creek that runs along the front of my property before it goes under the road and feeds my neighbors pond, where it then runs down to the river somewhere.

So I have water and a heat source and a chance to grow food. I hope it never comes to having to rely on those things to survive, but at least my kids will have somewhere to go if the you know what hits the fan.

And the house is big enough to house all 3 of them if they have to stay for awhile. They are all good savers though, which is good.

My real fear is the fact that my wife and I make more money than I thought we ever would and I still feel like we are scraping by sometimes. And it's not like we live extravagantly here. It's a weird time and I feel uneasy.

 

[Sand]

My unit just received a security warning about Temu and the Temu app. Temu will sell your information and put your credit card number at risk to be compromised. The app will also track your data/movement and may even record keystrokes. Deleting the app doesn't get rid of the tracking. That was just an FYI for anyone thinking about Temu.

How does that work? I thought that both Android and Apple were pretty careful about permissions here. Got a link on this?

I don't download shopping apps (nothing like a dedicated app designed around advertising just to you), but that seems like something that would get an app booted off of any of the big app stores.

 

[Max Power]

My unit just received a security warning about Temu and the Temu app. Temu will sell your information and put your credit card number at risk to be compromised. The app will also track your data/movement and may even record keystrokes. Deleting the app doesn't get rid of the tracking. That was just an FYI for anyone thinking about Temu.

How does that work? I thought that both Android and Apple were pretty careful about permissions here. Got a link on this?

I don't download shopping apps (nothing like a dedicated app designed around advertising just to you), but that seems like something that would get an app booted off of any of the big app stores.

I don't have a link, because this was in a DOD security bulletin sent on a separate network. Below were the main points before going into some long winded CCP relationship stuff. Temu's parent company is Pinduoduo, which had it's app removed from google in 2023 after "Sophisticated malware" was found on the app that gave permissions to access private messages, photos, change settings, change security permissions, view data from other apps and prevent uninstallation.

The App is coded at its most basic level to become a digital version of a tick or other parasite - Extremely difficult to remove.

Customer's phones and devices become the app's host, and the information contained therein is Temu's lifeblood.

While data is the lifeblood of any e-commerce or internet platform, Temu's exceptional access means it could monitor all the user's activity but also change settings and make it nearly impossible to remove.

Deletion of the app is not the end of Temu.

The Arkansas AG has filed a lawsuit against Temu.

Shopping app Temu is “dangerous malware,” spying on your texts, lawsuit claims

Temu “surprised” by the lawsuit, plans to “vigorously defend” itself.

arstechnica.com

 

[MrJimiT]

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

My real fear is the fact that my wife and I make more money than I thought we ever would and I still feel like we are scraping by sometimes. And it's not like we live extravagantly here. It's a weird time and I feel uneasy.

I understand THAT particular feeling. I feel like I am doing as well as ever financially, and yet, I can not ever seem to break through that economic glass ceiling.

 

[Bri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Yeah, unless it's gas, the price doesn't go down. Smaller packages, less product, some have the appearance of going down but prices don't go down.
I said during those stimulus payments that the govt will definitely get their money back and then heard a zillion people say the same thing, googled and saw people had written similar and I think we all knew the govt would- like everyone saying it's gonna rain.

People buying temu junk gets made fun of but happens regularly and I assume because that's all they can afford or something logical.

I've taught my kids to cook. Now we've all learned how to make some things from scratch.
I've saved a lot of money fixing things myself and cutting my own firewood and...I find myself teaching them things $ related.

My nieces and nephews are at home making good $ and 24-25. Their counter to millennials not being able to afford a house is to save a ton. One of them has 80k saved up and parents that scream at him for barely eating and eating ramen n such. Another has been home a few years and saved 10k. The family argued a lot at Thanksgiving about the economy and how to do things. I wasn't there, just was told. I've stewed on it a lot though.

Are we about back in the 1800s and we should buy land and make that generational? Probably a home on it, maybe two. There's a weird parental responsibility here that I feel like is sort of developing.

18-22 when kids used to move out they were on their own and probably all asked for help with a bill here n there.

If not the generational thing then how is an ordinary person to deal with the "millennial can't buy a house" stuff?

My unit just received a security warning about Temu and the Temu app. Temu will sell your information and put your credit card number at risk to be compromised. The app will also track your data/movement and may even record keystrokes. Deleting the app doesn't get rid of the tracking. That was just an FYI for anyone thinking about Temu.

Temu has supposedly done this since day one.
I use PayPal or google pay or...I don't remember, it's been a while but definitely remember "yeah I'm not giving you my info" as I rarely ever do.
I don't know why people do anymore. (Caring tone) There's so many that have been burnt by things. Just use Venmo or whatever third party.
I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in? It's so absurd when ya think it thru.

2? years ago, Temu opened a warehouse in NJ and passed every investigation. I remember a friend on fb working for them and getting flack and then vindicated.

I don't know what's true because the guy was out of work and they were all over the warehouse snooping into everything and then he was back to work. Meanwhile, google results and how timelines work- right beneath the "all clear" article was more claims temu did some bad stuff

I asked him a while ago and he didn't work that job anymore.

 

[Sand]

I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in? It's so absurd when ya think it thru.

Part of the risk is that you're essentially throwing your money over the fence without much recourse. I buy stuff off of Ali when I don't care if it breaks or doesn't work out. They sell the same exact stuff on Amazon for 4x, so if you want the recourse that's the route to take.

 

[Max Power]

I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in? It's so absurd when ya think it thru.

Part of the risk is that you're essentially throwing your money over the fence without much recourse. I buy stuff off of Ali when I don't care if it breaks or doesn't work out. They sell the same exact stuff on Amazon for 4x, so if you want the recourse that's the route to take.

I've ordered some Jerseys from overseas for $20-25 that were pretty nice. Beats spending the $150 Fanatics wants.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Increasing taxes is deflationary - not likely to happen, though. We'll see what kind of money dumping we get. No telling. That one is definitely inflationary as we learned very pointedly over the last few years.

Not likely to happen? Really? I think tariffs are almost a certainty.

 

[the moops]

I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in?

Local cops aren't going to haul anyone in if a purchase here in the states goes awry either though. If Amazon screws you and refuses to refund your money there isn't a whole lot of recourse except the power of taking your business elsewhere.

 

[Bri]

I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in?

Local cops aren't going to haul anyone in if a purchase here in the states goes awry either though. If Amazon screws you and refuses to refund your money there isn't a whole lot of recourse except the power of taking your business elsewhere.

Yeah man I thought I was obviously exaggerating or facetious or whatever the term is

 

[Bri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Increasing taxes is deflationary - not likely to happen, though. We'll see what kind of money dumping we get. No telling. That one is definitely inflationary as we learned very pointedly over the last few years.

Not likely to happen? Really? I think tariffs are almost a certainty.

Can I ask about this?

So "we don't make anything in America anymore" is usually followed with pictures of abandoned smoke stacks or some factory. Did we hurt the economy with our green laws?

I know some things are still made here but it's far less and I know things used to lasts decades and now are flimsy and last a relatively short time.

I grew up in the Chinese cars are trash era(Red foreman like) or only Italian and German cars are good. Then almost hypocritical, everyone owned a Chinese or Japanese car.

Caterpillar makes engines that last more than a million miles and are still made with steel and maybe iron and "good metals" and not necessarily "cheap aluminum."

Washers and dryer don't last.
I've had three fridges in my kids lifetime and my mom still has the one we had when I was little.
I got an iron and it was maybe my fifth. My mom still has same one.
On and on and on and on.....

Do we have to revert back to making quality stuff? Do we need Trumpers to write laws rolling back some limitations or something so that companies can do that?

If they tax imports more aren't we the real victims? Cheap stuff is generally the draw and we often assume it won't last but temu and wish and whatever companies charge us very little. Won't the end result just be that we pay more for junk?

In my uneducated on this topic and inexperienced opinion- it seems like everyone is forgetting the creation point. Where is stuff supposed to be made then?

I feel like they need to shake the etcha sketch and start anew.

 

[Max Power]

There is a documentary on Netflix called "Buy Now" that addresses a lot of the issues with our consumer culture. Worth a watch if you're interested in that type of stuff, but it's an infuriating documentary. Mostly due to the amount of waste we are creating as consumers. Like those fridges probably aren't being recycled and all three are in a landfill somewhere. Or we ship it off for another country to deal with it.

One idea is that companies don't want to make things that last because that is less profit for them. They are incentivized to sell things with shorter shelf lives that will need to be upgraded or replaced. Some companies like Apple go out of their way to make their electronics non-repairable, so people are forced to buy the latest and greatest.

I'm interested to see how tariffs play out. They may be beneficial in bringing some production back to the states, but it's very hard to compete against the savings using foreign labor.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

One idea is that companies don't want to make things that last because that is less profit for them. They are incentivized to sell things with shorter shelf lives that will need to be upgraded or replaced. Some companies like Apple go out of their way to make their electronics non-repairable, so people are forced to buy the latest and greatest.

In the stock thread here on this forum we had a discussion back when Weber grills IPO'd that they were a poor investment because the grills are too reliable, and when they sell one they take one of their customers off the market for 20 years instead of being able to re-sell to them in 3-5 years like other grill companies.

And it was a good point as the stock performed terribly and they were I believe eventually bought out and made private again.

I think the answer to @Bri 's question is pretty simple. For capitalism and the stock market to work, profits have to keep increasing. Profits can increase in two ways, raising prices and cutting costs. Companies eventually hit a limit on raising prices, and have to focus on cutting costs. Cutting costs creates lower quality products.

But the market by design is somewhat efficient in handling this with recession. When a company is new they may focus on good products and low cost because customer acquisition/retention is the key. Once they become established (and especially if they go public) they have to shift that focus to maximizing profits (higher prices, lower costs/quality), especially if the economy is strong and people don't push back on it. Eventually we hit recession, and companies are forced to switch back to customer acquisition/retention mode by lowering prices relative to quality because customers are cutting spending, then we cycle back to profit maximizing, and so on.

The problem is we've used policy to skip the last two recessions, so we never haven't had that period where customer acquisition/retention is important in the last 15 years. So companies have continued to push profits, which has caused the market and multiples to shoot up, which means they have to maximize profits even more, and so on.

The other problem with that lack of recession is that we've created these incredibly high expectations of what life should be like, and adapted to a higher quality of living. So now we have people "struggling" while living a life that in the past would have been considered ultimate luxury. And that's not meant to belittle anyone's struggles because of course there are people out there really struggling, but as a whole we complain about things that in the past we would never have dreamed of thinking we deserved or had a shot at. It's been so long since the economy truly sucked, that we've forgotten what a truly sucky economy is (and a lot of young adults have never actually seen one!), and now we get upset when things drop from "really really good" to just "really good".

 

[Bri]

Should there be a limit to wealth? Or do I mean profit?

Not a law but some concept.
Why does Weber have to go from suppose making 25 mil to making 50 mil?
The stocks is why- I get that and great explanation- but should it be that way?

What's wrong with two houses, house on the beach, Ferrari, Lambo, yacht life?

My brain thinks oil and some other industries for having never ending greed but Weber seems like a regular ol company.

Is their a system flaw?

@FreeBaGeL

 

[Bri]

Re customer acquisition and retention- Walmart seemed to buy,bully, and takeover every bit of competition.

I know vlasic stories and ghost stores etc

Would our food prices be more reasonable if Walmart hadn't done all that?
They used to get blamed all the time and I no longer hear that.
Why is their higher prices so much a Trump/Biden issue and not them anymore?

 

[SFBayDuck]

One idea is that companies don't want to make things that last because that is less profit for them. They are incentivized to sell things with shorter shelf lives that will need to be upgraded or replaced. Some companies like Apple go out of their way to make their electronics non-repairable, so people are forced to buy the latest and greatest.

In the stock thread here on this forum we had a discussion back when Weber grills IPO'd that they were a poor investment because the grills are too reliable, and when they sell one they take one of their customers off the market for 20 years instead of being able to re-sell to them in 3-5 years like other grill companies.

And it was a good point as the stock performed terribly and they were I believe eventually bought out and made private again.

I think the answer to @Bri 's question is pretty simple. For capitalism and the stock market to work, profits have to keep increasing. Profits can increase in two ways, raising prices and cutting costs. Companies eventually hit a limit on raising prices, and have to focus on cutting costs. Cutting costs creates lower quality products.

But the market by design is somewhat efficient in handling this with recession. When a company is new they may focus on good products and low cost because customer acquisition/retention is the key. Once they become established (and especially if they go public) they have to shift that focus to maximizing profits (higher prices, lower costs/quality), especially if the economy is strong and people don't push back on it. Eventually we hit recession, and companies are forced to switch back to customer acquisition/retention mode by lowering prices relative to quality because customers are cutting spending, then we cycle back to profit maximizing, and so on.

The problem is we've used policy to skip the last two recessions, so we never haven't had that period where customer acquisition/retention is important in the last 15 years. So companies have continued to push profits, which has caused the market and multiples to shoot up, which means they have to maximize profits even more, and so on.

The other problem with that lack of recession is that we've created these incredibly high expectations of what life should be like, and adapted to a higher quality of living. So now we have people "struggling" while living a life that in the past would have been considered ultimate luxury. And that's not meant to belittle anyone's struggles because of course there are people out there really struggling, but as a whole we complain about things that in the past we would never have dreamed of thinking we deserved or had a shot at. It's been so long since the economy truly sucked, that we've forgotten what a truly sucky economy is (and a lot of young adults have never actually seen one!), and now we get upset when things drop from "really really good" to just "really good".

I've seen a lot of talk lately that the boom/bust cycle we've seen throughout history is changing as our economy has changed. Today, manufacturing is only 10-12% of the economy, while services make up 70-80%. Manufacturing was 30% in 1950, down to 20% in 1980, and obviously continues to decline. So what historically has largely caused recessions has lessened in importance and impact. I think this also makes it a little easier to prevent them through fiscal and monetary policy. These are among probably a handful of reasons we used to have recessions so often and they are much less frequent now.

Doesn't mean we won't have recessions in the services and software economy we now live in, we absolutely will. But it seems they will be more likely to be caused by exogenous shocks or fiscal/monetary policy mistakes, not a boom/bust economic cycle. Just look at the last two - the housing crisis (which did have somewhat of a boom/bust "manufacturing" cycle, but even that was largely driven by the financial side), and then Covid.

Eventually we hit recession, and companies are forced to switch back to customer acquisition/retention mode by lowering prices relative to quality because customers are cutting spending, then we cycle back to profit maximizing, and so on.

I'd quibble with this one a little as in many industries, particularly the services and software that now make up most of our economy, it's much cheaper (ie more profitable) to retain a customer than to acquire a new one. But with consumer goods it probably still applies somewhat.

 

[Sand]

I'm always afraid of foreign purchases. What recourse do I really truly have? Am I supposed to go to a Chinese court? Local cops gonna fly to China and haul them in? It's so absurd when ya think it thru.

Part of the risk is that you're essentially throwing your money over the fence without much recourse. I buy stuff off of Ali when I don't care if it breaks or doesn't work out. They sell the same exact stuff on Amazon for 4x, so if you want the recourse that's the route to take.

I've ordered some Jerseys from overseas for $20-25 that were pretty nice. Beats spending the $150 Fanatics wants.

I've bought a lot of bike parts, including a gravel frame, from China. No issues.

 

[Sand]

So "we don't make anything in America anymore" is usually followed with pictures of abandoned smoke stacks or some factory. Did we hurt the economy with our green laws?

The US manufacturing sector is a behemoth. Don't believe the meme that we don't make anything anymore. We make tons of stuff, just not the low value items.

 

[Instinctive]

Should there be a limit to wealth? Or do I mean profit?

Not a law but some concept.
Why does Weber have to go from suppose making 25 mil to making 50 mil?
The stocks is why- I get that and great explanation- but should it be that way?

What's wrong with two houses, house on the beach, Ferrari, Lambo, yacht life?

My brain thinks oil and some other industries for having never ending greed but Weber seems like a regular ol company.

Is their a system flaw?

@FreeBaGeL

The flaw is in the constant pressure of public markets. Weber was maybe a good example, ULine is for sure another. If you can take away the pressure to grow and increase profit or be the victim of a hostile corporate takeover, you can just be happy with a level of profit, and many private businesses seem to be exactly that.

 

[Stoneworker]

The Weber Grills story is neither an example of a) "flaws" in companies being public nor b) a company whose product is "too reliable"

The problem with Weber was twofold: 1) too much leverage and 2) doing an IPO based on sales projections that were unsustainable.

When Weber went public in 2021, it was riding the huge pandemic-fueled craze of skyrocketing sales of home goods. Sales of grills increased 60% from 2019-21.

The IPO price was always overvalued because it was based on financial projections that assumed the pandemic bump was a permanent thing. Shame on the bankers (and investors for believing them).

However, once restaurants opened back up and people flocked en masse to eat out, Weber grill sales predictably plummeted back to 2019 levels. The share price appropriately followed. And because the company took on debt to fuel an expansion that never materialized, it was now at risk of bankruptcy. Therefore the going-private transaction.

Weber management has since said that sales are on track for 10% CAGR for the next five years (2023-2027). And 10% is exactly what revenue growth had been in the 40 years from 1980-2019, thereby disproving the "too reliable" theory.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

It's pretty remarkable to observe where the economy is now vs just a few years ago. I still don't quite understand the people that think prices are going to go down though. The prices are what they are going to be (for the most part, yes some exceptions). Hopefully we get back to that 2% increase pace but it looks like we're going to be facing some significant pressure on that front if we dump more money into the economy and increase taxes.

Increasing taxes is deflationary - not likely to happen, though. We'll see what kind of money dumping we get. No telling. That one is definitely inflationary as we learned very pointedly over the last few years.

Not likely to happen? Really? I think tariffs are almost a certainty.

Can I ask about this?

So "we don't make anything in America anymore" is usually followed with pictures of abandoned smoke stacks or some factory. Did we hurt the economy with our green laws?

I know some things are still made here but it's far less and I know things used to lasts decades and now are flimsy and last a relatively short time.

I grew up in the Chinese cars are trash era(Red foreman like) or only Italian and German cars are good. Then almost hypocritical, everyone owned a Chinese or Japanese car.

Caterpillar makes engines that last more than a million miles and are still made with steel and maybe iron and "good metals" and not necessarily "cheap aluminum."

Washers and dryer don't last.
I've had three fridges in my kids lifetime and my mom still has the one we had when I was little.
I got an iron and it was maybe my fifth. My mom still has same one.
On and on and on and on.....

Do we have to revert back to making quality stuff? Do we need Trumpers to write laws rolling back some limitations or something so that companies can do that?

If they tax imports more aren't we the real victims? Cheap stuff is generally the draw and we often assume it won't last but temu and wish and whatever companies charge us very little. Won't the end result just be that we pay more for junk?

In my uneducated on this topic and inexperienced opinion- it seems like everyone is forgetting the creation point. Where is stuff supposed to be made then?

I feel like they need to shake the etcha sketch and start anew.

I'm rather confident in my belief that the manufacturing issues in this country are driven by automation more than anything else. We were unwilling to embrace that.

 

[Sparky Polastri]

Why is their higher prices so much a Trump/Biden issue and not them anymore?

Because rather simple economic principles were ignore to score political point. You don't dump trillions of extra dollars into an economy that doesn't need it.

 

[Max Power]

Powell says inflation projects have "fallen apart". The four rate cuts projected in 2025 have been revised down to two cuts.

inflation is expected to remain above target rates for all of 2025.

 

[bcat01]

Our local county sales tax receipts have increased 13 years in a row. For 2024 they are down 2.4%. The commissioner's are expecting 2025 to be a declining year as well.

 

[SFBayDuck]

The US economy grew 3.1% during Q3, up from 3% the previous quarter.
Consumer spending up 3.7%, the highest increase since Q1 2023.
Unemployment still down at 4.2%.
Inflation at 2.7%, still a bit over the 2% goal but stabilized. The PCE was at 1.5%, down from 2.5% in second quarter.

 

[Stoneworker]

Since 9/24 the Fed has cut rates by 100 bps...and yet the 10-yr is up nearly 80 bps.

No one in the bond market believes that inflation is under control

 

[SFBayDuck]

Since 9/24 the Fed has cut rates by 100 bps...and yet the 10-yr is up nearly 80 bps.

No one in the bond market believes that inflation is under control

Yup, consensus seems to be it's at best stuck here in the high 2s, and at worst it creeps back up again. That pesky full employment and consumers spending too much to get it down any further!

*I do wonder how much of what the bond market is doing is based on concern over potentially inflationary policies in 2025. I looked at a chart of the 10 year and compared it to a chart of election odds for the incoming president, and they both bottomed the week of September 16th and then started going up. Coincidence? Maybe.

*not a political statement, just looking at data