"Officials at the White House had been prepared to put out a statement Friday afternoon that accused Russia of being “the main actor” in the hack, but were told at the last minute to stand down..."
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-politics-mark-levin-coronavirus-pandemic-hacking-6080f156125a4a46edef2a6dcf826611
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/10/america-wheat-hunger-great-food-aid-boondoggle/
"The United States is the food bank of the world. It’s a fitting role for the world’s largest food exporter and corn producer. Between 2016 and 2017, it produced 430 million tons of corn, which amounted to one-third of global corn production. The United States provides half of all global food aid. Since the Dwight D. Eisenhower era, U.S. taxpayers have fed 3 billion hungry people in some 150 countries....Like all governments, Washington doesn’t send food aid simply for moral or humanitarian reasons. Food aid is a tool to promote national strategic interests. Food security—that is, access to sufficient quantities of nutritious food—can improve health and education and grow the economy, which opens up new markets for donor countries."
https://www.intellinews.com/russia-has-become-an-agricultural-powerhouse-but-remains-a-net-importer-of-food-181359/
"Russian grain production .... increased substantially, from 1.63 tonnes per hectare during 1987-1991 to 2.81 tonnes per hectare over 2017-2019....
In the last few years Russia’s grain production has soared to around 45 mmt of grain. Russia shipped to customers around the world earned the country some $25bn in 2019 – more than the value of its arms exports – the problem is that the food processing industry remains underdeveloped and Russia imports most of its fancy foods.
“Russia’s top agricultural exports are grain, fish & seafood, fats & oils,” says RJE. “In 2017-2018, Russia supplied 10-13% of total world grain exports and 20-23% of total wheat exports, which accounted for 80% of Russia’s total grain exports, in volume terms....
2014 was a double whammy for food imports. In addition to the ###-for-tat sanctions on agri-good imports, the sharp devaluation of the ruble following an oil price shock at the end of that year almost doubled the price of imported foodstuffs, leading to a rapid fall in consumption.
“The crisis-induced drop in food consumption and rise in production resulted in a major fall in Russian agricultural and food imports, which from 2013 to 2015-2016 declined in dollar terms by about a third, and then rose only marginally in 2017-2018,” says RJE."
The Russian Federation imported US$243.8 billion worth of goods from around the globe in 2019, up by 33.4% since 2015 and up by 2.4% from 2018 to 2019. Based on the average exchange rate for 2019, the Russian ruble depreciated by -6.2% against the US dollar since 2015 and dropped by -3.3% from 2018 to 2019.
The following product groups represent the highest dollar value in Russia’s import purchases during 2019. Also shown is the percentage share each product category represents in terms of overall imports into Russia - Machinery including computers: US$43.2 billion (17.7% of total imports) , Electrical machinery, equipment: $29.8 billion (12.2%), Vehicles: $23.7 billion (9.7%), Pharmaceuticals: $14.1 billion (5.8%)
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An official declaration would essentially be a declaration of war. No sitting POTUS in a transition situation like this is going to do that with a changeover coming. It could be Trump, it could be Biden, Obama, Clinton, Bush, Romney, Gore, anyone, no one is going to broker a fight that way, esp with a pandemic loose. There is no political capital for Trump in the 2024 election cycle to do it, there is no strategic military reason to do it. If the US gets into a fight with Russia, first it will choke out it's other grain buyers by leveraging all cross over relationships related to food aid. Then the US will cut off what it exports to Russia. First, you devalue the ruble and you destabilize the Russian economy. You want starving Russian citizens blaming Putin and anyone else in power. Solarwind hacks also impacted other countries, so you need their cooperation as staging points for the US carrier groups and air wings. Then you need to bunker up your critical infrastructure at home and factor in your fuel reserves for potential extended combat application. Conflicts between nations boil down to logistics, and logistics require time to process. Only then do you get into a shooting war.
"Orange Man Bad" does not change tactical reality. This situation exceeds partisan conflicts in internal US politics.