Using and Interpreting Draft Dominator (1 Viewer)

[faux_bear]

I love the draft dominator. I've used it the last couple of years and have found it to be a great tool for preparing and conducting drafts. However, there are a couple of issues that I have with it.

Most significantly, it doesn't seem to do a very good job of taking into account position scarcity, which your real life human competition will do. What I'm mostly referring to is the tendency for Draft Dominator to value receivers just as much, if not more so, than running backs in PPR leagues.

I am noticing that if I plug in my standard projection, and then follow Draft Dominators advice on who I should take, I end up taking receivers much earlier than my opponents, and am left with weak running backs. Here is how DD ranks the top 15 players in PPR leagues:

1. Ladainian Tomlinson

2. Steven Jackson

3. Larry Johnson

4. Frank Gore

5. Brian Westbrook

6. Steve Smith

7. Torry Holt

8. Joseph Addai

9. Chad Johnson

10. Reggie Bush

11. Willie Parker

12. Reggie Wayne

13. Marvin Harrison

14. Peyton Manning

15. Larry Fitzgerald

Now, you'll notice here that these rankings are pretty far off from where most people would project these receivers to go, even in 1 PPR leagues, and pretty far off from how these players are likely to be actually drafted. You'll also notice that Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson aren't even on the list, but that's besides the point.

What I'm getting at is that I fear that if I rely on Draft Dominator to help be select which player has the most value at each position, and if my draft selection is the in the bottom half of the first round, I will end up with stud receivers in the first two rounds, but pretty weak running backs to round out my starting roster.

Have any of you guys noticed this tendency of DD overvaluing WR's, or otherwise potentially leading you astray if you're drafting from certain positions?

Now, I'm not necessarily saying that drafting two stud WR's in the first two rounds is necesarily a bad move, but we all know it's pretty darn risky.

Thoughts?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Why don't you run through a few mock drafts, take 3 RBs and 3 WRs in the first six rounds of each (in different orders) and see which combo works best for you.

 

[radballs]

Why don't you run through a few mock drafts, take 3 RBs and 3 WRs in the first six rounds of each (in different orders) and see which combo works best for you.

Running a few mocks will really help you see what kind of team you can put together from your draft position. Also, keep in mind that what the DD cranks out as the value for a particular player is not necessarily where you should take them because you also have to factor in ADP.

 

[AcerFC]

I played around with the DD after my draft was over last year and found some interesting things about ppr leagues and the DD. If you read thru the post, I as well as others have said that there are many flaws to the experiment but I feel it still holds some interesting information.

Like Chase said, run through as many mocks as you can and see where you might value guys over some others. I hate the RB run in the first two rounds and its always great to hear about something that someone does that is outside the box.

Here is my experiment from last season if you have any interest.

DD Last Year

 

[Exile]

Also, keep in mind that what the DD cranks out as the value for a particular player is not necessarily where you should take them because you also have to factor in ADP.

 

[Packers4ever]

With PPR the top WR's do have more value then the midlle tier RB's. I was in a PPR league and won it 2 years in a row by drafting the top 2 WR's at the end of the 1st round and the beg of the 2nd and then just draft RB's in the next 3 to 4 rounds to hit on a couple of average RB's.

I am sure if you run the program without PPR you will get a totally diferent out come.

 

[Billy1x]

Also, keep in mind that what the DD cranks out as the value for a particular player is not necessarily where you should take them because you also have to factor in ADP.

Exactly. Many times I have taken a player lower ranked but knowing that the recommended player would be there in the next round. You also need to know your league. Taking RB-RB-RB in the first three will kill you if the other guys don't take 2nd and 3rd RBs later on in the draft. You'll find great back still available in the 7th round but all the other positons were cleared out while you were stocking up on backs.MOCK-MOCK-MOCK and and then develop your strategy for each league.

 

[faux_bear]

Also, keep in mind that what the DD cranks out as the value for a particular player is not necessarily where you should take them because you also have to factor in ADP.

Exactly. Many times I have taken a player lower ranked but knowing that the recommended player would be there in the next round. You also need to know your league. Taking RB-RB-RB in the first three will kill you if the other guys don't take 2nd and 3rd RBs later on in the draft. You'll find great back still available in the 7th round but all the other positons were cleared out while you were stocking up on backs.MOCK-MOCK-MOCK and and then develop your strategy for each league.

yes, certainly it's important to mock, but Draft Dominator is not a good tool for mocking since it usually uses VBD instead of ADP to select the players for other teams. This leads to unrealistic, and therefore useless, mock drafts. I just ran a few mock drafts using DD and had Willie Parker available to me with the 10th pick in the first round and both Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson available in the second round. This, of course, will never happen in real life.

 

[radballs]

Also, keep in mind that what the DD cranks out as the value for a particular player is not necessarily where you should take them because you also have to factor in ADP.

Exactly. Many times I have taken a player lower ranked but knowing that the recommended player would be there in the next round. You also need to know your league. Taking RB-RB-RB in the first three will kill you if the other guys don't take 2nd and 3rd RBs later on in the draft. You'll find great back still available in the 7th round but all the other positons were cleared out while you were stocking up on backs.MOCK-MOCK-MOCK and and then develop your strategy for each league.

yes, certainly it's important to mock, but Draft Dominator is not a good tool for mocking since it usually uses VBD instead of ADP to select the players for other teams. This leads to unrealistic, and therefore useless, mock drafts. I just ran a few mock drafts using DD and had Willie Parker available to me with the 10th pick in the first round and both Shaun Alexander and Rudi Johnson available in the second round. This, of course, will never happen in real life.

There's an option checkbox to click on in order to have the other teams draft according to ADP instead of the DD's dynamic value sheet.

 

[radballs]

Go to setup and then under the general tab (first one), look for the miscellaneous box in the middle of the right hand side of the screen. Click the box that says have other teams draft according to ADP and you're all set. Keep in mind that the ADP will be different for a ppr league vs. what the software is telling you. The software is not factoring in the ppr when it comes to the ADP as far as I know. GL.

 

[radballs]

Also, experiment with the "My Mock Draft" tab under the first header. You can run mocks where, if you check which team you are in the setup tab, it will automatically do all of the computer picks until it's your next pick according to ADP. I would caution you though that this seems to be a bit off as well since the ADP data will not be accurate if your league has some unique rules.

 

[faux_bear]

Also, experiment with the "My Mock Draft" tab under the first header. You can run mocks where, if you check which team you are in the setup tab, it will automatically do all of the computer picks until it's your next pick according to ADP. I would caution you though that this seems to be a bit off as well since the ADP data will not be accurate if your league has some unique rules.

Thanks for the tips radballs. Much appreciated.

 

[Gibbs4Prez]

I have kept historical ADP by position for my league for 8 years.

(i.e. On average, RB1 is taken with pick #1, RB10 is taken with pick#13, and TE1 is taken with pick #45)

It is a great advantage, because it helps me to plan my picks better, by allowing me to wait on some players, and get a jump on when a run on a position usually begins.

Is there any way to use my own ADP data in DD?

Thanks!

 

[Polish Hammer]

Also, experiment with the "My Mock Draft" tab under the first header. You can run mocks where, if you check which team you are in the setup tab, it will automatically do all of the computer picks until it's your next pick according to ADP. I would caution you though that this seems to be a bit off as well since the ADP data will not be accurate if your league has some unique rules.

I completely agree with the bolded part. My league does PPR for RB and WR, 2PPR for TE, and has a FLEX that allows you to start 2 QBs if you want. If I could get ADP info for 2QB leagues and/or PPR leagues and somehow synthesize that data into DD, that would be fantastic.