Value of late round draft picks in FFPC (1 Viewer)

[barackdhouse]

I cannot count how many times I have heard players poo poo on these later picks and how worthless they are. As a reminder, FFPC is PPR with 1.5 PPR for TEs. And perhaps most crucially, we must cut down to 16, including K & D, by the end of March each year. It is hard to develop young rookies, WRs especially. But as a starting point, I looked at just one of my many FFPC, and also FFPC-style, leagues, and looked at some notable rookie/FA picks from just the last 3 years. 

2019:

SINGLETARY 2.10

MCLAURIN 3.08

WALLER 3.12

WITTEN 5.08

CHARK 5.10

ROSS 6.02

AP 6.08

UNICORN 6.09

2018:

JAMES WHITE 3.04

ANDREWS 4.01

JAYLEN SAMUELS 5.01

JOSH ALLEN 5.03

CHARK 6.03

LINDSAY 6.10

2017:

HUNT 1.12

ENGRAM 2.02

KAMARA 2.03

GODWIN 2.05

JUJU 2.06

MACK 2.10

LYNCH 2.11

CONNER 3.02

GOLLADAY 3.10

KITTLE 4.01

A JONES 4.02

MAHOMES 4.11

KUPP 5.01

JARED COOK 5.03

WOODS 7.12

 

[barackdhouse]

2017 was just stupid

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Sure but like you said, roster cuts are tight in FFPC, even during the season.  How many of those guys ended up breaking out on the team that actually picked them?

For instance Chark went 6.03 in 2018 but he was probably on another 5 different rosters between that pick and him actually breaking out, and I doubt the guy that picked him at 6.03 got to reap any of the rewards.

Surely some of these guys broke out on the team that picked them, but I would wager at least half of those guys were on someone else's roster when they finally paid off.  I can count a handful of those guys that I picked in the year they're listed here only to see break out on someone else's roster later.

These late round picks are always the first to go during in-season pickups, of which there are many in FFPC with the large waiver wire.  That means that in most cases if the guy doesn't break out immediately, someone else is going to end up getting the payoff.

 

[menobrown]

I have always considered round two a premium pick and round 3 is where it gets a little sketchy but have some success.

My first few years of FFPC dynasty I thought I pretty much sucked at drafting and holding any worthwhile 4th round or later players. Basically I got some solid QB's, D's and maybe a handcuff type RB. So was really starting to get down on value of them.

Since then I've nabbed guys like Golladay in the 5th of some drafts, Tarik Cohen in 6-7th of a few drafts. Pollard in several leagues last year and FFPC or not I think he's worth a hold. High end QB's like Dak in the 5th last year. Took John Brown in 6-7th round of a few drafts last year and while I'm cutting or trading him were I got him I kept him last year and he was useful.  I missed on Waller last year but he was a 4th-5th in a lot of leagues. McClaurin a 4th in some leagues and most people in my leagues who drafted him held him.

Now I took Kittle in round 5 of two leagues the year he came out and cut him. I cut Lamar in two leagues. So yes the later round guys do have a much stronger chance of getting cut if they don't show something quickly,  but sometimes they do enough where you feel like you got to make a spot for them.

So yes it's true the later round guys got to impress quickly or they go but I'm starting to value them more then past years.  Besides they make the preseason/camp a little more enjoyable.

 

[barackdhouse]

Sure but like you said, roster cuts are tight in FFPC, even during the season.  How many of those guys ended up breaking out on the team that actually picked them?

For instance Chark went 6.03 in 2018 but he was probably on another 5 different rosters between that pick and him actually breaking out, and I doubt the guy that picked him at 6.03 got to reap any of the rewards.

Surely some of these guys broke out on the team that picked them, but I would wager at least half of those guys were on someone else's roster when they finally paid off.  I can count a handful of those guys that I picked in the year they're listed here only to see break out on someone else's roster later.

These late round picks are always the first to go during in-season pickups, of which there are many in FFPC with the large waiver wire.  That means that in most cases if the guy doesn't break out immediately, someone else is going to end up getting the payoff.

There is absolutely a mix of names and years on this board where some of them were subsequently dropped and recycled. But I'll tell you that I drafted Kittle in like 5 leagues and only traded one share. Took Waller in 8 leagues last year and have sold 2 shares so far. Took Lindsay in 4 and sold 3. Kept Golladay kept Woods (then flipped him with Lindsay and a late 1st for Evans).Jones was kept and then traded. 

So I guess I would say this. Yes many of these names may get recycled first. Chark is the obvious example here. But a lot more of them didn't get dropped. And the idea would be that *I* as the individual owner have the ability to keep these guys if I believe in them. They don't have to be cut. In that 2017 draft I snagged Juju, Golladay, Kittle, Lindsay and Woods. I'm now back to back champ and looking really strong in 2020. 

I suppose a stacked and dominant team has less ability to keep these guys than a team that is rebuilding, but my main point is they have value and shouldn't just be shrugged off.

 

[barackdhouse]

I cannot count how many times I have heard players poo poo on these later picks and how worthless they are. As a reminder, FFPC is PPR with 1.5 PPR for TEs. And perhaps most crucially, we must cut down to 16, including K & D, by the end of March each year. It is hard to develop young rookies, WRs especially. But as a starting point, I looked at just one of my many FFPC, and also FFPC-style, leagues, and looked at some notable rookie/FA picks from just the last 3 years. 

2019:

SINGLETARY 2.10

MCLAURIN 3.08

WALLER 3.12

WITTEN 5.08

CHARK 5.10

ROSS 6.02

AP 6.08

UNICORN 6.09

2018:

JAMES WHITE 3.04

ANDREWS 4.01

JAYLEN SAMUELS 5.01

JOSH ALLEN 5.03

CHARK 6.03

LINDSAY 6.10

2017:

HUNT 1.12

ENGRAM 2.02

KAMARA 2.03

GODWIN 2.05

JUJU 2.06

MACK 2.10

LYNCH 2.11

CONNER 3.02

GOLLADAY 3.10

KITTLE 4.01

A JONES 4.02

MAHOMES 4.11

KUPP 5.01

JARED COOK 5.03

WOODS 7.12

All the bolded were kept by the teams that drafted them, or traded to someone who kept them. I admit I went a little high with the list for 2017 with Hunt at 1.12. I just couldn't help it because that 2nd round was ridiculous. Also, I drafted Hunt that year in 3 places at 2.02 or later. Just not this one.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I have always considered round two a premium pick and round 3 is where it gets a little sketchy but have some success.

My first few years of FFPC dynasty I thought I pretty much sucked at drafting and holding any worthwhile 4th round or later players. Basically I got some solid QB's, D's and maybe a handcuff type RB. So was really starting to get down on value of them.

Since then I've nabbed guys like Golladay in the 5th of some drafts, Tarik Cohen in 6-7th of a few drafts. Pollard in several leagues last year and FFPC or not I think he's worth a hold. High end QB's like Dak in the 5th last year. Took John Brown in 6-7th round of a few drafts last year and while I'm cutting or trading him were I got him I kept him last year and he was useful.  I missed on Waller last year but he was a 4th-5th in a lot of leagues. McClaurin a 4th in some leagues and most people in my leagues who drafted him held him.

Now I took Kittle in round 5 of two leagues the year he came out and cut him. I cut Lamar in two leagues. So yes the later round guys do have a much stronger chance of getting cut if they don't show something quickly,  but sometimes they do enough where you feel like you got to make a spot for them.

So yes it's true the later round guys got to impress quickly or they go but I'm starting to value them more then past years.  Besides they make the preseason/camp a little more enjoyable.

I also cut Kittle in two FFPC leagues and I am having nightmares about it right now because I have Dawson Knox on the chopping block in one of those same leagues and there are so many similarities between him and Kittle at this point in their careers.

 

[menobrown]

I also cut Kittle in two FFPC leagues and I am having nightmares about it right now because I have Dawson Knox on the chopping block in one of those same leagues and there are so many similarities between him and Kittle at this point in their careers.

No BS, I have had the same exact thought on Knox, that I could be cutting a Kittle all over again and I'm staring at cutting him in two leagues(traded him away already twice last season). The QB makes me think less of him, he won't be playing in Kyle's system are factors. This almost sounds twisted but I was actually hoping they'd sign Olsen to put me of out of my misery and make my decision easier.

Now a common sense strategy would be cut him if you have to and assume rookie fever will catch most of your league and you can redraft him at a reasonable cost. But I got to say that approach burned  me with Kelce, one of my other worst cuts ever. I took Kelce in round 3 the year he came out. He gets hurt before he ever plays a snap in a real game. I put him on IR so no problem, he's easy to keep at that point. Later in the season I run out of IR room. So I figure if  I took him in round 3, he never played a snap in a real game and will be coming off a major knee surgery then surely I can cut him and draft him again in round 3.  It failed, someone beat me to him, he went a few picks earlier in round 3 his second go around.

 

[barackdhouse]

A lot of people have regret about Kittle. I was actually kind of big on him when he came out and then saw flashes his rookie year. So I kept him. But the phenomenon of cutting bait on guys too early is very real. I came *very* close to cutting Davante Adams at one point.