Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
value ofthe 1.1 rookie pick? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter LBH
- Start date
Longshot88
Footballguy
i think late 3rd early 4th at best
LBH
Footballguy
You dont think Peterson is worth more than a late 3rd?
Longshot88
Footballguy
were is he going??? what has he done in the NFL?????for every LT there are 10...william Greens or ron Daynes
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
I think it all depends on who you are trading with. Some value it more than others. If you are trying to trade it I think you just need to shop it around.FWIW, I just finished an initial dynasty draft that included rookies (I know, a little odd drafting the rooks before they are actually drafted but that's another discussion) and AD went 2.07 to the Bush owner.(Calvin went high 4th, about WR10 IIRC.)
Mr. Peterson
Footballguy
Lets not forget who we're talking about here. We're talking about ADP. That's right ADP. Not William Green or Ron Dayne, but ADP!
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
I actually agree with you for the most part. I do think that rookie hype can get out of hand, but sometimes I think you have to gamble too. It's no guarantee, but AD just MAY be the next LT. If he is, whatever you paid was probably cheap.I know that there is a lot of talk about how over valued the rookies are, and a smart person drafts a steady vet, but 1 rookie that blows up to be LT is worth 3 steady vets, so I think that at some point it is worth a gamble. You can't sell your whole team for rookies, but if you believe in a guy and have a hunch I say play it.I am targeting the guys who own the 1.02 and 1.03 picks who think rookies are over valued and offering them steady vets. So far I have not had a ton of luck but I am trying. I guess for me the key is to not over pay, but try to get a guy if you beleive in him. whatever than means
-OZ-
Footballguy
Good luck. The owner probably got the pick for a reason, he's probably excited about his new "toy", and he's probably rebuilding. Usually not exactly the type of person who will trade rookie picks at a reduced, or even "fair" rate.
Longshot88
Footballguy
I woiuld rather have steve smith, Fitz ..Or CJ than a chance at a rookie
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
Yeah, I know. Unfortunately, none of the guys around here that say rookies are overrated own any early picks in my leagues. Everybody that owns one knows what it's worth.I tried to trade Marvin Harrison for the 1.03 and got laughed at. I didn't really expect it to work either. But I am actually kinda releived he turned me down too. In the end I am probably better off with whatever Marvin has left but CJ/Lynch got the 'what if' ideas flying and I sent out the offer...
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
I would too, but that list does not get much longer...
LBH
Footballguy
I traded the #4 pick in the veteran draft, and pick #11 in the rookie draft for #14 overall and the #1 rookie pick. Also moved from 6.11 to 6.1 .Im trying to get a late 1st or early 2nd out of someone, but Ill hold it and take Peterson myself if I cant get what I want.
Last edited by a moderator:
gridiron-ghost
Footballguy
I can think of at least 10 rb's I'd take in front of AD. So I'd say equal to somewhere between mid 2nd to mid 3rd.
Scarpaggio
Footballguy
I have Bush, Benson, Maroney, Fitz on my roster.. Lets just guess where I have been finishing the last few yrs, bottom 3. I recently tried to trade the 1.3 for Harrison and basically got laughed at. Its funny how people value different players. The Harrison owner came back with Harrison for 1.3 and Benson. The Harrison owner has also been in the superbowl the last 5 yrs.Will said:
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Here goes a nice little analysis of the value of a rookie draft pick compared to a veteran pick done by Beto:
Rookie Pick Value in a Veteran Draft
Rookie Pick Value in a Veteran Draft
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
A few years ago when LT went to San Diego there were people saying that LT, on that bad SD team, with that crappy O-line will struggle. Too bad he got stuck there...Now I'm not comparing LT and AD, I'm just saying that until we see what AD can do it's all speculation. He may be William Green, he may be LT, or he may be ???It's a gamble, but for some people it might be worth it. Depends on team needs and expectations etc., but to make a blanket statement, that AD is under no circumstances worth a gamble is short sighted in my opinion. He may not be worth it to you but there are people out there that it makes sense to try for him.
Intesting post by Bloom in that thread.
He was pretty much right on. But the "at worst average fantasy guy". It's crazy to think how far Mike Williams fell. Reminds us how many busts there are. Another post was taking about people who took Bennett over LT in their rookie draft. Regardless of who it is, there's a chance they'll be a complete bust. Without question people more and more are overpaying for rookie picks. These 2005 rookie draft threads are very interesting to re-read. You almost forget how hyped Bennett, Charles Rogers, Williams were.
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
I know, it always cracks me up to see the different value placed on the same player in different leagues with the same basic scoring system. It only takes 1 guy who really likes a player to make his stock shoot up.BTW, In a recent dynasty startup Bush, Maroney and Fitz were all first rounders, and Benson was a second round pick. If I was you I'd hold onto that 1.03 and keep building a great looking young team. My guess is you will be the guy in the championship game soon...
GrandpaRox
Footballguy
There is no way that Peterson falls out of the 2nd round, especially in a non PPR league.He is at least as good as Addai and Maroney who are both going around the 12th or 13th rb taken.If you actually see him going late 3rd or early 4th, please post a link because I would like to see the league rules and who was drafted ahead of him.TIALongshot88 said:
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I agree also. You guys that prefer the vets THAT much above high end rookie picks I suspect haven't been in dynasties very long.If you assume (may not be 100% but it's probably a decent assumption) that the #1 RB in the NFL draft was the #1 dynasty draft pick, in the last 8 years we have: (I will list guys who were close in the NFL draft together with slashes, with 1st drafted listed first).Reggie BushRonnie Brown/Benson/CaddySteven Jackson/Perry/Kevin JonesWillis McGahee/Larry JohnsonGreen/DuckettTomlinsonJamal Lewis/Thomas JonesEdge/RickyThat's some pretty good value right there. In only one of those years did you get a complete bust, and 5 or more of them (Edge/Ricky, LT, Johnson, Jackson) are or have been ELITE/championship winnning type guys). Say you take a random shot at any of those guys IN THEIR PRIME and for their WHOLE CAREER (thinking of Edge/Ricky/Jamal here) and where do you want to draft those guys in a vet draft? 3rd rounder? You are kidding right?-OZ- said:
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
I agree also. You guys that prefer the vets THAT much above high end rookie picks I suspect haven't been in dynasties very long.If you assume (may not be 100% but it's probably a decent assumption) that the #1 RB in the NFL draft was the #1 dynasty draft pick, in the last 8 years we have: (I will list guys who were close in the NFL draft together with slashes, with 1st drafted listed first).Reggie BushRonnie Brown/Benson/CaddySteven Jackson/Perry/Kevin JonesWillis McGahee/Larry JohnsonGreen/DuckettTomlinsonJamal Lewis/Thomas JonesEdge/RickyThat's some pretty good value right there. In only one of those years did you get a complete bust, and 5 or more of them (Edge/Ricky, LT, Johnson, Jackson) are or have been ELITE/championship winnning type guys). Say you take a random shot at any of those guys IN THEIR PRIME and for their WHOLE CAREER (thinking of Edge/Ricky/Jamal here) and where do you want to draft those guys in a vet draft? 3rd rounder? You are kidding right?-OZ- said:
That's what I meant to say
Couch Potato
Footballguy
It's good to remember too that where the top rookie is actually picked isn't where a consensus of 12 or 14 owners (or a message board consensus ranking) would take him, but where the one guy who values him most highly takes him. For this reason, he will likely be taken in an actual draft higher than any consensus list you may see posted.
LBH
Footballguy
Good point. I noticed Reggie Bush went awfull early when I kept seeing him being taken later in the mocks
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
I get what you are saying, but if you think about it, you could apply that same logic to every player (vet or rook). Players in general are taken by the guy who wants them the most. Of course someone may really like a guy (any guy) and grab him early, but in the end it averages out.On the other hand, if your point was simply that it shouldn't surprise anyone greatly if somebody grabs a guy like Peterson VERY early, I'm with you. Could easily happen.
Personally, I don't think I'm loony for draft picks, and if I can get solid talent WITH a track record there's something to be said for that. But anybody who "overspent" for a high rookie draft pick to get Tomlinson, or Jackson, or Edge, or Faulk, etc is probably loving life right now. Anybody who did it to get Green or Duckett obviously isn't. Bottom line, depending on the player/year I'd go as high as mid-1st round, but most years might go as low as mid-2nd. Unless it is very strange year (no RBs to speak of) though, 3rd/4th round is pretty much crazy IMO.
switz
Footballguy
depending on the rookies coming out, at best a late second... though i took edge his rookie year with 2.1... so if you really think a player is a lock, maybe early second, but in most rookie drafts, probably a mid to late third.
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Intitial dynasty draft, i would not take any non-RB ahead of Peterson. As far as where he falls amongst RB's, i would say somewhere end of first, all depends what team he goes to.
Assuming i had the next pick and the previous were gone, my first round would go something like this:
1.LT
2.SJax
3.Bush
4.LJ
5.Gore
6.Addai
7.RBrown
8.Maroney
9.Peterson
10.Westbrook
11.Jones-Drew
12.Parker
Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.
Assuming i had the next pick and the previous were gone, my first round would go something like this:
1.LT
2.SJax
3.Bush
4.LJ
5.Gore
6.Addai
7.RBrown
8.Maroney
9.Peterson
10.Westbrook
11.Jones-Drew
12.Parker
Mcgahee,Portis, and DWilliams would be close.
switz
Footballguy
This is kinda funny... I just posted a thread asking where Peterson would rank among recently highly touted drafted RBs... (which would exclude Gore, Westbrook, JD, Parker...)
Burning Sensation
Footballguy
Someone pointed out that it only takes one person to "overvalue" him to determine where he will go. I think i am pretty much in the middle on where i value Peterson, i will admit however, i probably over value youth in dynasty leagues, particularly RB's.
Scarpaggio
Footballguy
Thats my current thinking, but with the team i have, Brees, Palmer, Bush, Benson, Maroney, Colston, Fitz, Edwards, and we do 3 IDP starters I thought Harrison would get me there this year. Start 1 QB 2 RB, 3WR, K, 3 IDP. My point is I wouldn't trade the 1.1 and 1.2 last year. No one offered nearly enough for them, IMO, but I have no problem this year letting go of the 1.3 if I can get that older vet that can help me get into the playoffs this year. I think depending on your teams situation the value for high picks can change. If you want to take a chance at doing something this year instead of waiting 2-3 yrs for the guy to be on the top of their game the value can come down a little. It has for me slightly. I have a lot of young guys right now and know an older vet or two might put me over the top.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
"most rookie drafts, probably a mid to late third"To each his own, but I just don't get this line of thinking. So in each year below, the guys listed are worth no more than a mid to late third round pick at the time (obviously, you already siad you used a high 2nd on Ricky).Reggie BushRonnie Brown/Benson/CaddySteven Jackson/Perry/Kevin JonesWillis McGahee/Larry JohnsonGreen/DuckettTomlinsonJamal Lewis/Thomas JonesEdge/RickyCan't imagine passing on Steven Jackson 3 times. Wouldn't you have to kick yourself in the ### 7 years out of 8 using that philosophy? For argument's sake, lets use the current FBG dynasty rankings for comparison, and we'll limit to 4 years to minimize the age factor and just use the actual #1 (NFL drafted) guy each year.So we've got Bush, Brown, Jackson, McGahee. In that group for current FBG dynasty value, we have 3 1st rounders and a mid 2nd (who was once a top 4/5 guy who has fallen out of favor). If you traded any of these #1 rook picks for a mid-3rd initial vet draft pick, you just screwed yourself pretty hard EVERY YEAR for the last four years. If you want to extend, you do finally get a real loser in 2002, but then in 2001, you get get the fantasy god.I know that is essentially just what I said before stated slightly differently, but I just don't get how you could really value #1 rookie picks that way. The evidence just doesn't bear that out unless you feel like the last 8 years or so have been the game's most consistent "fluke".Edit: By the way, when I actually though abou it, even the loser might not really have been a real loser. William Green was pretty clearly thought of as a 1st or 2nd round value at some point early in his career after a "good" (or so some thought) rookie year. He's clearly dropped like a rock since then, but a year after you traded a mid-3rd to get him, you would have been happy about it.
Last edited by a moderator:
messinwithu
Footballguy
Speaking of Mock drafts (and somewhat about consensus lists)If someone really wants Peterson and would pick him at pick 1.10 in a vet draft and they are doing a mock draft they want to see how others value Peterson and will not select him even if they have the 1.11 and 2.02 picks in order to see how far he falls and if they could get him later in their real draft. Maybe as the owner of the 1.10 pick in a vet draft the feel they could "steal" him at 2.03 if he keeps falling to the 2.06-3.01 range. If you have 2 or more owners getting a feel for the value of Peterson he will fall much further in a mock than in a real draft.
Will
Drunk, not Stupid
have you drafted yet? I'm curious who you effectively traded AD for...I think that's a fair trade. It's definitely safer than going with AD.At 2.03 you are probably looking at an older RB or a great WR, (or Manning?)I know it all depends on league scoring. Where are you picking from? That would sway me as well. Are you picking 12th, so that's where you got the 1.01?
EBF
Footballguy
The hype on Peterson is considerable because he's been a big name at a major college program for three years running. I look for him to be selected in the 1.07-1.12 range of most initial dynasty drafts if he goes to a team where he's the clear opening day starter.
In general, I wouldn't trade the 1.01 most years unless I was getting a proven veteran star at a position of need, but it's really a matter of who's available in the draft pool and how much you like them.
Last year, with Reggie Bush in the pool, I wouldn't have given up the 1.01 in a PPR league for anyone other than LaDainian Tomlinson. This is a promising crop at the top with Peterson, Lynch, and Johnson, so it would take a substantial offer to pry my 1.01 away from me.
In general, I wouldn't trade the 1.01 most years unless I was getting a proven veteran star at a position of need, but it's really a matter of who's available in the draft pool and how much you like them.
Last year, with Reggie Bush in the pool, I wouldn't have given up the 1.01 in a PPR league for anyone other than LaDainian Tomlinson. This is a promising crop at the top with Peterson, Lynch, and Johnson, so it would take a substantial offer to pry my 1.01 away from me.
EBF
Footballguy
One note:
Draft picks are largely what you make of them. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut, but rookie picks and veteran picks are most valuable in the hands of owners who can consistently make good picks.
I personally might be inclined to dump a veteran below cost for a draft pick if I was confident that I could find a better player at the draft slot.
Draft picks are largely what you make of them. Even a blind squirrel finds the occasional nut, but rookie picks and veteran picks are most valuable in the hands of owners who can consistently make good picks.
I personally might be inclined to dump a veteran below cost for a draft pick if I was confident that I could find a better player at the draft slot.
LBH
Footballguy
Ive done a ton of trading so let me do a quick recap....I traded the 1.4 to the 1.14 owner and switched rookie picks giving me the 1.1 rookie, and also moved to 6.1 from 6.11. I then traded the 1.1 rookie for the 2.3 veteran while moving from 8.11 to 8.3. I then traded my 1.14 and 2.11 for the 1.9 and 3.9....so Im starting this 14 team dynasty draft with 1.9,2.3,3.4,and 3.9. I have specific guys in mind to target which is ther reason for the way i positioned myself. I tried to get to the spots where I thought my targets would be safe
