VBD and 100 pick method (1 Viewer)

[Soft Nines]

HI everyone, just wanted to ask a quick question about VBD and finding the right baseline. I really like the 100 pick method as a baseline but I guess Im a little confused.

Reguarding the 100 pick method used for VBD drafting, does it matter if the league size is 10 or 12 teams? For some reason I have it in my head that if I use 100 picks for my 10 team league, then I should use the first 120 picks for my 12 team league. This way its the first 10 rounds in both leagues. Is this advisable? Or should I forget all of this and do top 100 regardless of league size?

Thanks,

stevenjohnson07

FBG all the way

 

[ebcpastor2004]

I always adjust mine according to the number of picks that should fill my starting roster. Other's I know use different baselines, even the total number of players being drafted. Just depends on what you're looking forI guess.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Honestly, either baseline will work- the 100 picks baseline is no more or less arbitrary than a 120 pick one would be. As long as the baseline isn't too high or too low (either of which will cause some funky VBD outputs), it'll work just fine. Once you get past the first 10 rounds, I usually recommend moving away from VBD anyway and focusing more on upside.

 

[Warrior]

Honestly, either baseline will work- the 100 picks baseline is no more or less arbitrary than a 120 pick one would be. As long as the baseline isn't too high or too low (either of which will cause some funky VBD outputs), it'll work just fine. Once you get past the first 10 rounds, I usually recommend moving away from VBD anyway and focusing more on upside.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

I usually use a 7 rd base method. Gets me thru 84 picks (assuming 12 team ppr) and by that point the foundation work for rosters are pretty well in place. Agree w/Adam w/comment above.....after a certain point (arbitrary) you are going to want and deviate from script anyway.

 

[Simon Shepherd]

Seeing as though the VBD I use is based on the worst starters in the league, it makes total sense to me to base the cutoff on the number of starters (less PK and TM). Anyone else should have negative VBD and that's where it starts to get ugly.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Seeing as though the VBD I use is based on the worst starters in the league, it makes total sense to me to base the cutoff on the number of starters (less PK and TM). Anyone else should have negative VBD and that's where it starts to get ugly.

The problem with "worst starters" is that, according to very early ADP, the "worst starter" at RB (i.e. the 24th RB off the board) is going around pick 50, while the "worst starter" at TE (i.e. the 12th TE off the board) is going around pick 120. So, in other words, you've got an early 5th round player, and a late 10th/early 11th round player, and the "worst starter" formula for VBD will tell you both guys are exactly equal (VBD = 0). That's skewed. Nobody would trade the 30th best RB for the 12th best TE, or draft TE12 over WR40, even if it's a positive VBD gain according to "worst starter" methodology.

VBD, as a metric, is basically just an objective measure of opportunity cost. As a result, I think the best VBD baselines are the ones that give an apples-to-apples comparison. If the VBD baseline is whatever TE is left in the 10th round, it should also be whatever RB is left in the 10th round, too. That way, when you're in the 4th round and deciding between drafting Aaron Hernandez and Darren Sproles, VBD asks "if I get the RB and wait until the 10th at TE, what will be left for me? If I get the TE and wait until the 10th at RB, what will be left for me?"

 

[Soft Nines]

thanks everyone for the info, this is extremely helpful. I was first introduced to vbd drafting last year, and I am now looking to expand my knowledge on the topic. I agree with Adam's previous comment about how 100 pick method is better than worst starter. I think no matter what the league size is, I will adjust my vbd baseline according to how many rounds it takes to select the number of starters required on each roster (except k and def).

 

[Quibbler]

Assuming you're doing this on excel, or something similar, so it's not a lot of work, I recommend trying a couple different baselines. Comparing the different results helps you see how moving the baseline affects your values.

Personally, I use a top 100 for my rankings even in a 12 team league. I find 120 includes too many WRs for my liking.