VBD and Gates (1 Viewer)

[Marc Levin]

If you feel that Gates will merely edge out Gonzo/Shockey by 4-5 FF pts, then Gates will instantly drop 20 rankings in your VBD.

This isn't entirely a trueism. If Gonzo/Shockey are projected to get closer to Gates vy increasing their projections, Gates would have the same value score and would still have the same ranking based on VBD. Only Shockey and Gonzo would rank right near him. Remember, VBD is based on the lowest scoring starter at that position (TE 12 in a 12-team league). If Gates was projected at 150 points and #12 was projected at 75, Gates would get a value score of 75 no matter what Shockey or Tony G scored.If Gates' projections are lowered, that's where Gates' value score would take a hit. If you don't think Gates gets to 150 points, deduct the difference from his value score and he would fall some in the value rankings.

thanks for clarifying that - I can never remember if it is the worst starter or the median starter.but, that said, he is correct that Gates drops a bit - probably below the top-8 WRs. Right now his VBD number is insanely high b/c Dodds is projecting him to score some serious points while no other TE is projected to come close.

 

[Marc Levin]

In another thread, it was pointed out by one of the FBG staffers (Levin? My apologies if I'm wrong on that) that Gates finished at #8 the past two seasons if you ranked players according to their season-ending stats using standard FF scoring and a VBD system.

if I had to guess, it'd be Tremblay, Yudkin or Wood.

Yep - my bad, it was Mr. Yudkin. Too many bright staffers in these parts. You don't run into problems like this at other FF websites.

Yeah, Wood, MT, Drinen, and myself do all the dirty work and Levin is always the one that gets the credit. I'm tired of doing all his leg work and him getting all the credit.

Well certainly men of your intelligence are capable of disposing of the body of an obnoxious co-worker without getting caught. I'm just spitballing here, not saying you have to.....

I'm the "idea" man.I just "know" the facts - these guys have to go and drag the numbers and stats in to prove my idea.

I'm the brains of the clique.

 

[Marc Levin]

If you feel that Gates will merely edge out Gonzo/Shockey by 4-5 FF pts, then Gates will instantly drop 20 rankings in your VBD.

This isn't entirely a trueism. If Gonzo/Shockey are projected to get closer to Gates vy increasing their projections, Gates would have the same value score and would still have the same ranking based on VBD. Only Shockey and Gonzo would rank right near him. Remember, VBD is based on the lowest scoring starter at that position (TE 12 in a 12-team league). If Gates was projected at 150 points and #12 was projected at 75, Gates would get a value score of 75 no matter what Shockey or Tony G scored.If Gates' projections are lowered, that's where Gates' value score would take a hit. If you don't think Gates gets to 150 points, deduct the difference from his value score and he would fall some in the value rankings.

Don't forget the distinction between VBD and DVBD; Gates' DVBD will likely be lower when it's time to pick him, if there are two other TEs with numbers expected to be close to his, than if he has a huge gap to the #2 TE.

Very nicely and succintly put.

Give this man a gold star.

 

[(unwelcomed)GUEST]

None, but then again Alex Smith and Phil Rivers aren't rookies are they?  Inexperienced QBs should have been a better qualifier.  There are relatively few true rookies that start in the NFL.  Of those that do, none really stand out as successful, do they?

Can you provide two or three true rookies that have had recs., WR or otherwise that perform better than the median for the league?

My study was on first-year starters, not only rookies. Among the WRs in the group since 2000:

2005 Burress (#11)

2005 Galloway (#5)

2004 C.Johnson (#4)

2004 Bennett (#4)

2003 Holt (#2)

2003 Coles (#13)

2002 Coles (#13)

2001 Troy Brown (#15)

2000 Moss (#1)

That's much better performance than the TEs in the study, and for a number of the WRs, those represent the best numbers of their respective careers.

See the Antonio Gates spotlight.

05 Burress ???? Last year wasn't Eli's first year, he took over for an injured Warner the year prior.05 Galloway ???? I'll give some consideration since Simms did start the majority of games. The QB that started the year certainly wasn't a first year guy (Greise started 6 games).

04 CJohnson - no arguments here

04 Bennett ???? Volek appeared in 10 games in 04, one game he threw one pass, two other games he split time. He also appeared in one game in 01 and 7 games in 03. How is he a first year starter in 04 for those 7 games?

03 Holt Again Bulger played in 7 games in 2002. 2003 was not his first year.

02 Coles No argument, was first year for Pennington who took over for Vinny

03 Coles Don't think so, Ramsey appeared in 10 games the previous year

01 Brown No argument, Brady took over for Bledsoe

00 Moss No argument, Culpepper actually played 16 games that year.

 

[(unwelcomed)GUEST]

My comment was a general one. I do know that in Boller's first season, Heap had a very good season. IF you are counting last year's season as Eli's first rather than the year prior, Shockey also finished near the top statistically as a TE. Palmer was in a system in his rookie year, and still is, that doesn't feature a pass catching tight-end. The same could be said for Culpepper & Peyton Manning. Last year ASmith's markee TE was injured and did not play. Gonzo never had the opportunity to play with an inexperienced QB. Again my comments were general and not to be taken as a hardenned rule for the NFL. If Gates was just breaking on to the scene with Rivers, I'm sure he would rank up there statistically. As it were, in Brees's rookie season Gates (also a rookie that year that didn't play college football) really only played in the second half of the year. From week 10 through 17 he played six games. In those six games he 21 catches for 350 yds and 2 tds. Project that over 16 games and you get about 50 catches for 750 yds and 4-5 tds. In 2003 that would have put Gates behind only Gonzo 71 rec 916 yds 10 tds and Sharpe 62 rec 770 yds 8 tds. That year Heap finished third with Boller as a rookie 57 rec 693 yds 3 tds.