Vernon Davis-sleeper? (1 Viewer)

[twistd]

Vernon Davis is getting a lot of love as a sleeper in the preseason guides. But I think he is already creeping up draft boards. His ADP, according to Ants, in a 12 team league, is 7.06. He is the 6th TE off the board. He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten. In a mock draft I did a couple of weeks ago he was taken at 6.05, in front of Shockey and Heap. I get the feeling that he may creep up higher as the season approaches.

Last year Ben Watson was in a similar position. He was a consensus sleeper in the preseason. In my 12 team league he went at 5.01, in front of Gonzo and Heap. I got Heap at 5.06, five picks later. In a ten team league I picked Watson in the 11th round, and as the 7th TE off the board. And, as it turned out, I think that was too high.

Vernon Davis has awesome physical talents. And there may come a time when he surpasses Gates as the number one TE. But, right now, there are a lot of question marks about him, and his team. Will Alex Smith continue to develop? Will Jackson actually be healthy enough to play? Can any other WR provide a threat, or will Davis face double-teams all year long? Can Davis stay healthy? There are far too many questions, in my mind, for him to be taken so high.

I also think people lose the definition of a sleeper. If you can get Davis, say, in the eighth round. He is probably worth the risk. I felt the same way about Watson last year. But when you get so excited about him that you jump up and take him in the fifth round, in front of more established players, that could be a mistake. It probably makes sense to watch the sleeper lists from the magazines. With so many people drafting off of those, their consensus sleepers will likely go much higher than they should.

 

[salmonstud]

Many people have Davis still ranked fairly low. I drafted him last week in a 10-team redraft PPR league - TE required at 11.4. I felt he was great value at that point in the draft. He was the 9th TE off the board. I took Ben Watson the next round at 12.7.

Those are two TE's I'm targeting in redraft leagues this year. With Graham gone & Randy Moss to stretch the field...I think Watson could have the break out season most expected him to have last season.

 

[twistd]

Many people have Davis still ranked fairly low. I drafted him last week in a 10-team redraft PPR league - TE required at 11.4. I felt he was great value at that point in the draft. He was the 9th TE off the board. I took Ben Watson the next round at 12.7.Those are two TE's I'm targeting in redraft leagues this year. With Graham gone & Randy Moss to stretch the field...I think Watson could have the break out season most expected him to have last season.

See that is value. Davis in the 11th makes a lot of sense. Coupled with Watson, you have monster upside. And you invested an 11th and 12th pick. But I suspect by the time the season starts that Davis will go much higher. Watson may stay under the radar, but I think Davis will continue to climb. I worry a little about Watson because now they have so many targets. He may get lost in the shuffle a little.

 

[ThePittbully]

In a Redraft Id probably consider him TE 5 or 6, thats about right. In a dynasty, however, Id have him top 3 or 4

 

[Mystery Achiever]

i love the term consensus sleeper! probably morphs into a synonym for "overvalued player".

 

[ROCKET]

I'll be watching Davis closely in preseason to see how he looks. He's in a good situation, stud rb, young unproven qb along with a ? able wr corps. If he shines in preseason I'll be looking to grab him anywhere from the 6th/7th round on. I did the same thing last year with Watson which didn't pan out. I struck gold with Gates the year he broke out. Davis definately has a chance to be the next Gates but I wouldn't consider him a sleeper as he was highly touted coming out of college. I like his risk/reward potential.

 

[LBH]

He was the 9th TE off the board.

That would never happen in an expert league. Theres a good reason for the hype. Hes immensly talented physically, and has been looking great and developing nice chemistry with Smith through OTAs

 

[salmonstud]

He was the 9th TE off the board.

That would never happen in an expert league. Theres a good reason for the hype. Hes immensly talented physically, and has been looking great and developing nice chemistry with Smith through OTAs

The 11 experts the Footballguys have assembled to provide us with redraft rankings collectively have Davis ranked at 9...tied with Ben Watson. I would say that your theory that an expert league would not allow him to slip to the 9th TE off the board is flawed.V.Davis is hyped...but he isn't much more gifted than Ben Watson and I believe that people that were reaching for Watson in the 7th felt a little stupid at the end of the season. I selected Watson in the 8th last year in multiple redraft leagues. Sometimes it's better to take a proven player than one with upside. There is a decent chance that Davis will slip this year like he did in my redraft league.....even if there are "experts" that you are drafting against.

 

[twistd]

i love the term consensus sleeper! probably morphs into a synonym for "overvalued player".

 

[twistd]

I'll be watching Davis closely in preseason to see how he looks. He's in a good situation, stud rb, young unproven qb along with a ? able wr corps. If he shines in preseason I'll be looking to grab him anywhere from the 6th/7th round on. I did the same thing last year with Watson which didn't pan out. I struck gold with Gates the year he broke out. Davis definately has a chance to be the next Gates but I wouldn't consider him a sleeper as he was highly touted coming out of college. I like his risk/reward potential.

I picked up Gates in his first year. I'd like to say that I drafted him expecting him to do what he did, but I didn't. I picked him up in free agency. Davis is a great risk/reward player, but it all depends on where you can get him. My guess is that he moves up to high 6th or even the 5th by the time the season rolls around. Then it becomes questionable.

 

[Bcubed2355]

There is no way that Vernon Davis can be considered a sleeper. A sleeper is some that is an unknown with little or no expectations. Example of a sleeper is Colston last year. I get tired people calling trying waste people time calling McGahee, Vernon Davis, Santonio Holmes, and Randy Moss as sleepers. A top 25 anything can not be a sleeper.

If you are looking for a TE sleeper try Visanthe Shiancoe. He has a chance to be a big producer and no one expects anything.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten.

Clearly that's a mistake. Hey that's why I love it when exciting overhyped overrated players like Vernon Davis go up the draft boards. It means that those boring proven players like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fall through the cracks and you get them at great value.

 

[veto87]

He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten.

Clearly that's a mistake. Hey that's why I love it when exciting overhyped overrated players like Vernon Davis go up the draft boards. It means that those boring proven players like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fall through the cracks and you get them at great value.

So does Crumpler's value go up or down without Vick ? I figure whoever ends up throwing may go to Crumpler more as an option if the QB can't hit the WRs . Crumpler and Vick has some pretty good chemistry so I can only see his numbers going down... at least at the start of the season if Vick takes a leave of absence.

 

[bcr8f]

In a Redraft Id probably consider him TE 5 or 6, thats about right. In a dynasty, however, Id have him top 3 or 4

Maybe, but I'd rank these guys above him. He was hurt and really hasn't played a lot yet. GatesHeapGonzoCrumpler(still)WinslowWittenCooley

 

[bcr8f]

There is no way that Vernon Davis can be considered a sleeper. A sleeper is some that is an unknown with little or no expectations. Example of a sleeper is Colston last year. I get tired people calling trying waste people time calling McGahee, Vernon Davis, Santonio Holmes, and Randy Moss as sleepers. A top 25 anything can not be a sleeper.If you are looking for a TE sleeper try Visanthe Shiancoe. He has a chance to be a big producer and no one expects anything.

Greg Jennings at ADP WR35 is a sleeper. Sleepers can be known but their value is well above their ADP. When he was hurt he was on a 1100 yard 10 TD pace. That would be top 15.Shiancoe is a deep sleeper.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten.

Clearly that's a mistake. Hey that's why I love it when exciting overhyped overrated players like Vernon Davis go up the draft boards. It means that those boring proven players like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fall through the cracks and you get them at great value.

So does Crumpler's value go up or down without Vick ? I figure whoever ends up throwing may go to Crumpler more as an option if the QB can't hit the WRs . Crumpler and Vick has some pretty good chemistry so I can only see his numbers going down... at least at the start of the season if Vick takes a leave of absence.

It has to go down. Harrington's isn't a better passer than Vick. Plus as you said Vick and Crumpler have the chemistry and timing of playing together for several seasons. If or when Vick is unavailable Alge Crumpler numbers will be hurt no question about it.

 

[CalBear]

It has to go down. Harrington's isn't a better passer than Vick.

But he's at least as good as Alex Smith.

 

[Bri]

He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten.

Clearly that's a mistake. Hey that's why I love it when exciting overhyped overrated players like Vernon Davis go up the draft boards. It means that those boring proven players like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fall through the cracks and you get them at great value.

So does Crumpler's value go up or down without Vick ? I figure whoever ends up throwing may go to Crumpler more as an option if the QB can't hit the WRs . Crumpler and Vick has some pretty good chemistry so I can only see his numbers going down... at least at the start of the season if Vick takes a leave of absence.

Pretty hard to imagine a new QB not seeing Alge as an inviting target

 

[Bri]

Many people have Davis still ranked fairly low. I drafted him last week in a 10-team redraft PPR league - TE required at 11.4. I felt he was great value at that point in the draft. He was the 9th TE off the board. I took Ben Watson the next round at 12.7.Those are two TE's I'm targeting in redraft leagues this year. With Graham gone & Randy Moss to stretch the field...I think Watson could have the break out season most expected him to have last season.

Or Dave Thomas will come back from his injury and steal his spot. He looked good late last year, especially good on a handful of catches. Graham loss and the addition of Kyle Brady probably cancel themselves out IMO.Watson drops more than his stats show, there are a bunch of us on these boards that have said similarly. He runs the wrong routes at times and all that is frustrating. When he makes a sweet play alot (if not all) of that negativity goes away. I could see what you're saying happenning, just as easily as I could imagine him losing his spot for a more reliable player(if less explosive) like Thomas. That's just a guess on Thomas based upon limitted amount of reps of course.

 

[Bri]

He is taken almost a round before Crumpler and Cooley, and almost two rounds in front of Witten.

Clearly that's a mistake. Hey that's why I love it when exciting overhyped overrated players like Vernon Davis go up the draft boards. It means that those boring proven players like Chris Cooley and Jason Witten fall through the cracks and you get them at great value.

(Witten owner) He worries me some with his low TD total and I thought that rook Fasano looked pretty good at times. An improvement from rookie to second year is no stretch of a prediction so I gotta say I'm a little concerned about Witten."Had to" predict, I'd figure Witten increases his TD totals and is OK, I'm just sayin.....

 

[Mystery Achiever]

[so does Crumpler's value go up or down without Vick ? I figure whoever ends up throwing may go to Crumpler more as an option if the QB can't hit the WRs . Crumpler and Vick has some pretty good chemistry so I can only see his numbers going down... at least at the start of the season if Vick takes a leave of absence.

Do a search for alge for the last few days and you'll pull up at least two threads with this discussed

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Who is this Vernon Davis fella?

 

[kensat30]

It has to go down. Harrington's isn't a better passer than Vick.

But he's at least as good as Alex Smith.

Alex Smith in his first full year starting had a better completion percentage and yards per attempt average than Harrington has had in his entire career. And he did it with worse WRs than Harrington has had at any point in his career.By this statement, either you haven't watched enough of Harrington or you are seriously underrating Alex Smith. Joey Harrington is one of the worst QBs in the NFL. The one thing Harrington is good at, is picking what town he should be the backup QB in.

 

[CalBear]

It has to go down. Harrington's isn't a better passer than Vick.

But he's at least as good as Alex Smith.

Alex Smith in his first full year starting had a better completion percentage and yards per attempt average than Harrington has had in his entire career. And he did it with worse WRs than Harrington has had at any point in his career.By this statement, either you haven't watched enough of Harrington or you are seriously underrating Alex Smith. Joey Harrington is one of the worst QBs in the NFL. The one thing Harrington is good at, is picking what town he should be the backup QB in.

I agree that Joey Harrington is one of the worst QBs in the NFL. But Alex Smith in 2006 was just as bad.

 

[Sweetness_34]

I love it when guppies keep drafting off potential and hype instead of real production. In the WCOFF Sat league (PPR) I am drafting in right now, the order was:

Gates at 2.1

Heap at 6.8

Shockey at 6.11

Gonzo at 6.12

KWIII at 7.3

Cooley at 7.4

Vernon Davis at 7.6

Crumpler at 8.3

Watson at 8.4

Witten at 9.11

LJ Smith at 9.12

Mcmichael at 10.5

Heath Miller at 10.6

So basically VD was drafted before Crumpler, Witten, LJ Smith and McMichael.

For those that say Crumpler's stats will suffer because of Joey Harrington, you need to watch some more football. Last year, Randy McMichael was on fire thanks to Joey Harrington, and Miami has even better WRs than the Falcons do.

In Dec McMichael had 18 catches for 187 yards and 2 TDs

In Nov McMichael had 13 catches for 107 yds and 1 TD

In Oct McMichael had 25 catches for 287 yards and 0 TDs

In a PPR league, that is 132 points for 13 games (~10 PPG)....that is very solid production from the TE spot.

 

[LBH]

He was the 9th TE off the board.

That would never happen in an expert league. Theres a good reason for the hype. Hes immensly talented physically, and has been looking great and developing nice chemistry with Smith through OTAs

The 11 experts the Footballguys have assembled to provide us with redraft rankings collectively have Davis ranked at 9...tied with Ben Watson.

I think some of the experts must have been way off to make it as high as #9. Im not sure how good Vernon Davis is going to be this year but Im very comfortable saying he will be better than the 9th best TE. Sometimes the hype is true, and Im buying into Davis having a breakout season with everything in place to do so

 

[The Man with the Plan]

For those that say Crumpler's stats will suffer because of Joey Harrington, you need to watch some more football. Last year, Randy McMichael was on fire thanks to Joey Harrington, and Miami has even better WRs than the Falcons do. In Dec McMichael had 18 catches for 187 yards and 2 TDsIn Nov McMichael had 13 catches for 107 yds and 1 TDIn Oct McMichael had 25 catches for 287 yards and 0 TDsIn a PPR league, that is 132 points for 13 games (~10 PPG)....that is very solid production from the TE spot.

581 yards and 3 touchdowns. That's pretty mediocre. I like how you slipped that in a PPR league in there to make it seem better. It almost worked too. Almost. I guess that's supposed to mean that Joey Harrington likes throwing to the tight end.Alge Crumpler's a good enough player to be somewhat productive no matter who his quarterback is. I just can't see him going from playing with Vick for every season of both of their careers only to have a worse quarterback in Harrington throwing him the ball and his numbers don't suffer. They certainly won't be better.