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Vernon Davis (1 Viewer)
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Read some threads around here. Everybody loves VD. I think he's being overhyped.
Gonzo Stokes
Footballguy
This is reminiscent of the Ben Watson parade last year. Maybe it will turn out differently.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yes, you are crazy. I think VD could....COULD be top 5. But let's face it, he's and unproven workout warrior.
Hipster Doofus
Footballguy
Agreed. He's good, no question, but I don't have him at a 'Gates' level..yet. I've got him ranked 6th.
Sweat Hog
Footballguy
Yah, I drank the Watson Kool-Aid last year and paid dearly. I can't fit Gates into my auction strategy as somebody will overpay - which means this year I spend $1 on the best available. Never wasting cap space OR higher than 8th pick in a re-draft on a speculative TE pick again.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I will be shocked if he isn't one of the top 5 TE's as far as targets go barring injury.
So i guess it comes down to what you think he'll do with those targets.
I don't think he'll challenge Gates for #1 this season, but if he ended up the #2 FF TE i wouldn't bat an eye. He was the highest drafted TE EVER along with Winslow.
So i guess it comes down to what you think he'll do with those targets.
I don't think he'll challenge Gates for #1 this season, but if he ended up the #2 FF TE i wouldn't bat an eye. He was the highest drafted TE EVER along with Winslow.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Watson has never been thought of in the same league talent wise as Davis.I'm not saying you should be on the Davis bandwagon, but using Watson as the reason doesn't really make much sense.
GSWarriors
Footballguy
dont underestimate KW2. He should be #2 or #3 by year's end.
DeCleater
Footballguy
If you compare Davis to Watson, Watson is the workout warrior. Davis had much better college stats to back up his selection. Mr. Click-Clack WILL be a top 3 TE this year. (Barring injury)
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I don't know how much Gates will go for in your league but it may very well not be overpaying. If your league requires you to start one TE, it may only SEEM like he's going for too much money in comparision to the other TE options. When you factor in actual production, I often find top players (Gates, Peyton, etc.) are actually decent bargains.Back on track to the Davis thread, how many yards and td's do you supporters see him getting? Crumpler and Gonzo were the next best TEs...Alge had 8 touchdowns and Gonzo had 900 yards. Do you see Vernon surpassing either/both of those highwater marks?
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
KW definitely has top notch potential. If he wouldn't have had so many injuries i think we'd be talking about him in the same breath as Gates.
Cookiemonster
Footballguy
I'm starting to believe that a lot of posters on this board (as well as myself) are correct on a lot of players ready to break out, but we may be a year early on a lot of them. So many times we call a guy out as the next...
He falls flat on his face, and for the dissappointment this player falls a full round or two too far next year. I'm targeting V.Davis (I can't bring myself to call him VD) late this season or in the offseason (keeper or dynasty of course). I'm on the overhyped side, but I don't believe he's overhyped as a player, just a bit early. This is still the TE position we're talking about which is supposed to be the 2nd hardest (QB #1) to learn and adapt to in the pros. If WRs are supposed to make the biggest strides in year 3, QBs in year 3...
Just sayin'
He falls flat on his face, and for the dissappointment this player falls a full round or two too far next year. I'm targeting V.Davis (I can't bring myself to call him VD) late this season or in the offseason (keeper or dynasty of course). I'm on the overhyped side, but I don't believe he's overhyped as a player, just a bit early. This is still the TE position we're talking about which is supposed to be the 2nd hardest (QB #1) to learn and adapt to in the pros. If WRs are supposed to make the biggest strides in year 3, QBs in year 3...
Just sayin'
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
That's great. What does it have to do with this thread?
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
People constantly OVERrate him because that 82 catch season seemed to make people forget how brittle he is. AND hes not that good of a talent, the 49ers just didnt have a QB that could throw downfield or any real WR threats to throw to. AND the Saints dont really make use of their TE in that offense enough.
Chunky Soup
Footballguy
Waiting on guys to show their studly potential is only helping you to lose your FFL. He showed amazing potential in college, in the combine and even last year in the NFL. As the post I quoted before said (which was an excellent post, not just a good one), his hype is more than just the combine and is well justified. He is also having an incredible camp and has received incredible praise by everyone. Want to win? Don't wait on him. Draft him high.Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
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AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Waaaaay too many people get caught up in "the next big thing". Rarely do these upside picks actually pan out. That leaves you with some mediocre player that you reached for when you could have been grabbing similar production in a much later round (Andre Johnson is a prime example). Are you overlooking the fact Davis was really the only receiving option on that team? Does D-Jax scare you a bit? I'm not disputing Vernon has talent. I simply think we generally get entirely too caught up with finding the next big thing.Waiting on guys to show their studly potential is only helping you to lose your FFL. He showed amazing potential in college, in the combine and even last year in the NFL. As the post I quoted before said (which was an excellent post, not just a good one), his hype is more than just the combine and is well justified. He is also having an incredible camp and has received incredible praise by everyone. Want to win? Don't wait on him. Draft him high.Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
Why is everyone down on Watson from last year? Sure, the hype was excessive, but he was a Top 10 TE that could be had after more than 10 TE's had come off the board. I grabbed him as the 12th TE last year, and he finished in the Top 10 in my league.
I like Vernon Davis this year, too. He replaced Watson for me late last season after an ill-conceived strategy blew up in my face, and performed great.
I like Vernon Davis this year, too. He replaced Watson for me late last season after an ill-conceived strategy blew up in my face, and performed great.
I also don't think VD has a chance to challenge Gates at the top spot, at least this year. I think VD is a superb player to have on your team if you are in a dynasty league since, if he pans out, probably will be the next Gates...at least in my opinion. For that reason, I tried to get VD now while his stock is low, but the owner won't budge. And I already have Gates.
And he can start by working on his Reception percentage, which was a paltry 47.6% of targetted passes. This is well below the stud guys. You might blame some of this on Mr. Smith, but then he will be the one throwing the ball again this year, so somebody needs to get better. And speaking of throwing the ball, he will need some help beyond his control by having more passes thrown his way, as the 49ers ranked in the bottom half of the league in total passes to the TE position.
Here are the numbers for Davis the last 4 games in SF, when he was finally healthy and understood the offense better:
Vernon Davis te 2006 28 14 217 15.50 7 2 34.20
Although I have a tough time extrpolating to 16 games because of the small sample size there is plenty of reason to think that Davis will be much better this year. Extrapolating out: 56 receptions for 868 yards and 8 TDs. That would give him #2 tight end numbers for 2006. I would really expect more receptions and yardage and perhaps not quite that many TDs although he is likely the #1 red zone passing target this year for the 49ers. He and Smith developed some chemistry by the end of the year and by all accounts much more in OTAs and training camp. He is excellent YAC and will destroy Tampa 2 defenses. He has looked like a beast in training camp drawing raves from everyone who has been to their camp. Barring injury his low side is TE 6/7 and high side is TE 2.
Vernon Davis te 2006 28 14 217 15.50 7 2 34.20
Although I have a tough time extrpolating to 16 games because of the small sample size there is plenty of reason to think that Davis will be much better this year. Extrapolating out: 56 receptions for 868 yards and 8 TDs. That would give him #2 tight end numbers for 2006. I would really expect more receptions and yardage and perhaps not quite that many TDs although he is likely the #1 red zone passing target this year for the 49ers. He and Smith developed some chemistry by the end of the year and by all accounts much more in OTAs and training camp. He is excellent YAC and will destroy Tampa 2 defenses. He has looked like a beast in training camp drawing raves from everyone who has been to their camp. Barring injury his low side is TE 6/7 and high side is TE 2.
DocNiner52
Footballguy
I'm very high on Vernon for several reasons that have nothing to do with his talent and ability. Those are two assets though that the kid definitely has and it should help carry him to a great nfl career. Those two reasons alone would be enough to be optimistic about Davis' future. My reasons that I include are one, he's a 49er of which I'm a die-hard fan and they've had some decent TE's and two, he played his college ball as a Terrapin in my home state of Maryland. We haven't had too many star nfl players come from the Maryland Terps so that makes him a special talent. He's a beast and aggressive so I'm hoping he handles his nfl career with some class. As far as overtaking Gates, sure I'd like to see it this year but I'm not too optimistic that that'll happen. Oh, by all means, I believe it will, just not this year. He needs to get the work in on the field to become a top notch TE. It'll be a work in progress that will have that end result,IMO, in him being the best TE in football. Who's to say or predict when that'll be but it's gonna be fun watching him get there. Twice as much fun if he's on my fantasy roster.I'm not proclaiming him King TE but I feel pretty good that he'll finish in the top 5 this year. I don't want to over-project him and jinx him in any way. I'll temper my enthusiasm and settle for moderately great numbers this year 
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Can we get some projections from those that are sitting on the Vernon bandwagon?
He is a true beast
I am all systems go with vernon 2-3 rounds early, I must have him on my team this year
I think 70+ receptions
800 yds or so and 8-9 TDS are his floor, if he plays every game
I have picks close together in rds 5,6,7
I will probably take him in 5 bc i know he is going in rd 6 in my league
I am all systems go with vernon 2-3 rounds early, I must have him on my team this year
I think 70+ receptions
800 yds or so and 8-9 TDS are his floor, if he plays every game
I have picks close together in rds 5,6,7
I will probably take him in 5 bc i know he is going in rd 6 in my league
72 Rec 931 yards, 6 TDs
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Gates had 924 yards to go along with 9 touchdowns...this was on 71 receptions. He is by FAR the best TE in the league at this time, and you have Vernon Davis knocking on that door at his bare MINIMUM?I think you either need to re-evaluate your projections or you need to explain yourself...those are some VERY big numbers you've projected.
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
Which do you believe:He will be targeted more than nine times per gameHis catch percentage will jump dramatically from an abysmal 47.6
SURE BOB
THose were gates numbers last year, in other years he had 12 tds and additional yards, right? Why use gates numbers as the top TE from one year, especially a year LT had 30 tds, some of those will be distributed this year back to gates and the wr's.
I believe that gates, who is a BBALL player and unreal athlete worked his way into the role DAVIS specialized and terrorized in at MAryland and glimpses of last year, when heelthy
If he plays a full schedule, i think that floor is entirely realistic for a guy who, IMO will be the top 1 or 2 te in this league now and in the future
THose were gates numbers last year, in other years he had 12 tds and additional yards, right? Why use gates numbers as the top TE from one year, especially a year LT had 30 tds, some of those will be distributed this year back to gates and the wr's.
I believe that gates, who is a BBALL player and unreal athlete worked his way into the role DAVIS specialized and terrorized in at MAryland and glimpses of last year, when heelthy
If he plays a full schedule, i think that floor is entirely realistic for a guy who, IMO will be the top 1 or 2 te in this league now and in the future
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
I think it is entirely possible he could hit those numbers. I don't believe it's probable but nobody should call you crazy for thinking it's entirely possible. To say those numbers are his closer to his FLOOR than they are to his CEILING is where we're going to have to disagree. Yes, it was a down year for Gates last season but you're STILL projecting monster numbers. I just can't get behind that.
DocNiner52
Footballguy
I'll venture an estimate. First let me say I see Alex Smith attempting/completing more than the 442/257 he had last year. Not so much in as more passes but more completions. I don't think Davis will lead the 49ers in catches, ala Gates, as Gore and Jackson surely will get plenty of opportunites. At worst he'll have the 3rd most receptions on the team and possibly finish 2nd in catches. With that said I'll say he gets.....60 recpts./780 yds./7 td's for a 13.0 yds. per reception average
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I believe he'll increase his targets over those last 4 games (28 targets, 4 games = 7/game) and he'll increase his percentage to the still not fantastic 53 - 55% range - both by his own improvement and Smith's improvement.
Just so you know, these numbers place him tied for TE3 based on last years number.
DocNiner52
Footballguy
Using 1 pt. per reception,1 pt. per 10 yds. receiving, 6 pts. td here's some last years' numbers.Gates- 71/924/9 217.40 pts.KWII- 89/875/3 194.50 pts.Gonzo- 73/900/5 193 pts.Heap- 73/765/6 185.50 pts.Crumpler- 60/780/8 182 pts.V.Davis- 60/780/7 180 pts. (my 2007 proj.)That would put him at #6 by last year numbers. He could be higher than 6 this year if last years top guys don't come up with similar numbers from a year ago. I hoping my numbers for Davis are low as I think it's possible for him to exceed my projection. If not those numbers could possibly get him in the top 5. I look for KWII and Crumpler to drop outof the above group. That would leave two spots open in the top 5 that could be grabbed by two of these three guys IMO. Jeremy Shockey, Chris Cooley and Vernon Davis. If Vernon could end up getting in the top 5 I think he would be very pleased with that and well on his way to being the best TE.Willowdoc said:
FBG doesn't use PPR (I do in all my leagues though)
DeCleater
Footballguy
Thats how you win leagues.Gates was a nobody once too. Now you think it's crazy to compare someone to him. I think Davis will become the best TE in the NFL. Will that happen this year, probably not, but he will be a great TE (again barring injury). And he was the 6th pick in the draft so the 49ers are going to get him the ball, they have a vested interest in making him a success. I like his potential, I like his situation, and D-Jax doesn't scare me. Someone has to be able to draw coverage away from Davis.AnonymousBob said:Waaaaay too many people get caught up in "the next big thing". Rarely do these upside picks actually pan out. That leaves you with some mediocre player that you reached for when you could have been grabbing similar production in a much later round (Andre Johnson is a prime example). Are you overlooking the fact Davis was really the only receiving option on that team? Does D-Jax scare you a bit?Chunky Soup said:Waiting on guys to show their studly potential is only helping you to lose your FFL. He showed amazing potential in college, in the combine and even last year in the NFL. As the post I quoted before said (which was an excellent post, not just a good one), his hype is more than just the combine and is well justified.Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
He is also having an incredible camp and has received incredible praise by everyone.
Want to win? Don't wait on him. Draft him high.
I'm not disputing Vernon has talent. I simply think we generally get entirely too caught up with finding the next big thing.
Skinsfansince72
Footballguy
Well, Rivers is definitely on the better team. Not sure why you think he's the better qb though. Neither has exactly proven much yet. If one IS better than the other, it's not by much. Any statistical differences have more to do with one team being better than the other than it does anything else.Gates is the top te and will most likely outproduce Davis. The reason being that Gates is better. The difference at qb, if there is any, is inconsequential. On the other hand, I'd rather take Davis later. Gates always seems to go much higher than he should.
Skinsfansince72
Footballguy
True enough. Tony Gonzalez was the guy nobody could possibly be better than. Then along came Gates.Thats how you win leagues.Gates was a nobody once too. Now you think it's crazy to compare someone to him. I think Davis will become the best TE in the NFL. Will that happen this year, probably not, but he will be a great TE (again barring injury). And he was the 6th pick in the draft so the 49ers are going to get him the ball, they have a vested interest in making him a success. I like his potential, I like his situation, and D-Jax doesn't scare me. Someone has to be able to draw coverage away from Davis.AnonymousBob said:Waaaaay too many people get caught up in "the next big thing". Rarely do these upside picks actually pan out. That leaves you with some mediocre player that you reached for when you could have been grabbing similar production in a much later round (Andre Johnson is a prime example). Are you overlooking the fact Davis was really the only receiving option on that team? Does D-Jax scare you a bit?Chunky Soup said:Waiting on guys to show their studly potential is only helping you to lose your FFL. He showed amazing potential in college, in the combine and even last year in the NFL. As the post I quoted before said (which was an excellent post, not just a good one), his hype is more than just the combine and is well justified.Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
He is also having an incredible camp and has received incredible praise by everyone.
Want to win? Don't wait on him. Draft him high.
I'm not disputing Vernon has talent. I simply think we generally get entirely too caught up with finding the next big thing.
Post Corner
Footballguy
You ain't crazy...
Here, let me throw some gasoline on the fire:
http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy_football_sleepers.html
Davis is going to be a monster this year. Injuries are the ONLY thing that held him back last year, which is why a lot of people are able to actually get him this year without paying a killer Gates price.
Here, let me throw some gasoline on the fire:
http://www.footballdocs.com/fantasy_football_sleepers.html
Davis is going to be a monster this year. Injuries are the ONLY thing that held him back last year, which is why a lot of people are able to actually get him this year without paying a killer Gates price.
Bears_Man2
Footballguy
Can easily see him Top 5. People say he's being overrated. I say it's the last year to get him this cheap.
mdog1967
Footballguy
Your correct we all do get caught up in the next big thing. But Fantasy Football is about speculation. The speculators who guess right often do very well in their leagues. Gates has a track record, thats history. With the up and coming WR threats, V. Jackson, Malcom and Craig Davis the chance that Gates performs as well this year as in the past are not good. San Diego has had a rather poor WR corp in the past. They have run 3 out of 4 plays thru LT or Gates. Norv Turner will have a big impact on the team and will require lots of running to set up 20 yrd plus passes. So in summation the notion that Davis or any other TE in the league could surpass Gates is rather good this year. I dont know if it will be Davis or not, but I'll take the under on Gates performing as the top TE this year. I think Davis is a superior talent in every regard, can his talent translate this year to top 5 TE production is known only to the Gods. Would I pass on Gates to take Davis? I draft Sept 1st, I have a few weeks to make up my mind. For now I project:Gates: 60 receptions, 11.6 yard avg. - 700 yds and 5 TD'sDavis: 45 receptions, 13.3 yard avg. - 600 yds and 6 TD'sAnonymousBob said:Waaaaay too many people get caught up in "the next big thing". Rarely do these upside picks actually pan out. That leaves you with some mediocre player that you reached for when you could have been grabbing similar production in a much later round (Andre Johnson is a prime example). Are you overlooking the fact Davis was really the only receiving option on that team? Does D-Jax scare you a bit? I'm not disputing Vernon has talent. I simply think we generally get entirely too caught up with finding the next big thing.Chunky Soup said:Waiting on guys to show their studly potential is only helping you to lose your FFL. He showed amazing potential in college, in the combine and even last year in the NFL. As the post I quoted before said (which was an excellent post, not just a good one), his hype is more than just the combine and is well justified. He is also having an incredible camp and has received incredible praise by everyone. Want to win? Don't wait on him. Draft him high.Why is that a good posting? Jeramy Stevens will be a top 3 TE. I pulled some statement out of my rear end and said it with such authority so it must be true. Right? He had less than 5 ppg...finishing at Heath Miller levels. Why are the Niners going to suddenly turn him into an uber stud that will surpass the levels of Shockey, Heap, Crumpler and Gonzo? Nevermind guys like Witten, Cooley and Winslow.
SSSHSHHHHHHH!
exactly. watson had another TE for competition graham who had 235 yards and 2 tds. Davis has no other competisionin defense of the watson pick, it wasn't that bad. many got watson as the 10th -12 TE and he finished around there, he finished there because he had graham still taking catches (235 yards 21 ctches adn 2 tds). not only that, but he finished at the 10 TE and missed 3 games. just give him his average YPG of 49 and add 147 pts (and and 0 tds) to his stats from last year and he now moves up tot he #8 spot only 6 points below shockey. . i am still targeting watson this year as my guy, unless a top guy falls to the 9th round should have all of grahams yards and tds.
