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Vernon Davis (1 Viewer)

Martz has never had a TE as good as Gonzo or Cooley, but Tony Gonzalez was the primary receiver in a Martz-style offense run by Vermeil and Al Saunders, and Chris Cooley looked good under Saunders in Washington, too. So it's very possible for a TE to excel in the Martz offense. Unfortunately, the same could be said about running backs, and Martz' tendencies to lose faith in the running game might also be applicable to his faith in the TE position. Especially if he needs someone to stay in and block when he tries to flood the defense. There are a lot of reasons to think Davis is a crapshoot this year, but if you can't get one of the top TEs, he does have a realistic chance at outproducing his draft position.

 
Weiner Dog said:
Mike Martz is going to have a HUGE impact on VD's stats in '08. For the sake of argument, let's ignore's Martz's jaw-dropping passing stats as a the Rams HC. Instead, let's focus on his stint with the Lions as their OC.

Few will argue that Alex Smith and/or Shaun Hill strike fear in their opponents' eyes. I would argue, however, the same could have been said for Kitna prior to (...and during) his tenure in DET.

Here are the passing stats for the Lions and 49ers over the past two years...

Detroit Lions

2007: 372-596 for 3820 yards and 21 TD's

2006: 368-587 for 3878 yards and 19 TD's

San Franciso 49ers:

2007: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

2006: 257-444 for 2688 and 16 TD's

NOTE: NFL.com uses net passing yards with yards lost for sacks subtracted from the total gross passing yards.

Averaging the numbers over the past two seasons, Martz's offense...

1) Completed 40% more passes

2) Had 54% more passing yards

3) Had 29% more TD passes

How may this affect VD?? Let's see...

Vernon Davis career average per game (2006 and 2007 seasons):

3.0 receptions for 32.3 yards and 0.29 TD's

Vernon Davis average per game in 2007:

3.7 receptions for 36.4 yards and 0.29 TD's

If we apply the percent increases of the Lions passing offense over the 49ers passing offense to both VD's 1) career averages and 2) 2007 averages, we get the following...

Vernon Davis projections (using career average per game) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

4.2 receptions for 50 yards and 0.38 TD's / 67-800-6 over full 16 games

Vernon Davis projections (using average per game in 2007) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

5.2 receptions for 56 yards and 0.38 TD's / 83-896-6 over full 16 games

Summary

If you believe VD will not improve over 2006 and/or 2007 and will simply piggy-back Martz's passing success, a good baseline for a full 16-game season is somewhere near 75-850-6. These numbers would have placed him #4 behind Gonzo, Witten, Winslow and Gates last year. However, if you believe VD will continue to improve, who knows his full upside...??
Click to expand...
:D I agree with you 100%.

 
Which QB is going to sit back there in the pocket and get killed in Martz's system? Alex Smith already has proven he can't handle it.

If you don't have a durable QB - or an above average backup, it doesn't matter WHO the WRs and TEs are - as nobody can get them the ball.

 
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN said:
Which QB is going to sit back there in the pocket and get killed in Martz's system? Alex Smith already has proven he can't handle it.If you don't have a durable QB - or an above average backup, it doesn't matter WHO the WRs and TEs are - as nobody can get them the ball.
Click to expand...
Martz's 7-step drop definitely puts a lot of extra pressure on the OL and QB. I do believe, however, that Alex Smith will be Martz's most "fleet-footed" QB to date. Kitna and, more specifically, Warner were essentially statues in the pocket.Shaun Hill did an amazing job last year in relief of Smith and Dilfer, but I don't think he has the arm to run to Martz's offense. The Niners will live-n-die with Smith. Josh McCown, Quinn Gray and Cleo Lemon could also be signed to compete.
 
I posted this interview with Martz re: davis in another thread:

Martz on Vernon Davis:

Q: How will you utilize Vernon Davis?

A: In this system, you have so much flexibility within the numbers that you can be creative with a guy like him. You've got to be careful not to put too much on him, but it's a great opportunity to use him in different venues, so to speak. The system allows that kind of flexibility.

Q: Do you mean as far as lining him up as a receiver?

A: Getting him in the slot and putting him on the line of scrimmage. You can put him in the backfield and those kinds of things.

Q: As an H-back?

A: Yeah, you can do those kinds of things with him. The other thing about him is that normally those kinds of guys aren't good in-line blockers. But he can do that. He's talented.

 
Weiner Dog, it's been an interesting debate, and I guess the proof is in the pudding.

I think IF Davis can stay healthy, he'll put up better numbers than he has - but that's not saying much.

It's time to let the actual 2008 season do the talking.

 
GRIDIRON ASSASSIN said:
Weiner Dog, it's been an interesting debate, and I guess the proof is in the pudding.I think IF Davis can stay healthy, he'll put up better numbers than he has - but that's not saying much.It's time to let the actual 2008 season do the talking.
Click to expand...
Very true. Only time will truly tell.VD may not be cheap to acquire from his current owners in FF leagues, but an opportunity may exist if a disgruntled owner (who's been tired of Davis "wasting" a roster spot for two seasons) can be found. Do I think Davis will outscore Gates and/or Witten?? Highly unlikely. Do I think Davis can outperform his current #7-#9 dynasty ranking?? Absolutely.
 
Weiner Dog said:
Mike Martz is going to have a HUGE impact on VD's stats in '08. For the sake of argument, let's ignore's Martz's jaw-dropping passing stats as a the Rams HC. Instead, let's focus on his stint with the Lions as their OC.

Few will argue that Alex Smith and/or Shaun Hill strike fear in their opponents' eyes. I would argue, however, the same could have been said for Kitna prior to (...and during) his tenure in DET.

Here are the passing stats for the Lions and 49ers over the past two years...

Detroit Lions

2007: 372-596 for 3820 yards and 21 TD's

2006: 368-587 for 3878 yards and 19 TD's

San Franciso 49ers:

2007: 274-513 for 2320 and 15 TD's

2006: 257-444 for 2688 and 16 TD's

NOTE: NFL.com uses net passing yards with yards lost for sacks subtracted from the total gross passing yards.

Averaging the numbers over the past two seasons, Martz's offense...

1) Completed 40% more passes

2) Had 54% more passing yards

3) Had 29% more TD passes

How may this affect VD?? Let's see...

Vernon Davis career average per game (2006 and 2007 seasons):

3.0 receptions for 32.3 yards and 0.29 TD's

Vernon Davis average per game in 2007:

3.7 receptions for 36.4 yards and 0.29 TD's

If we apply the percent increases of the Lions passing offense over the 49ers passing offense to both VD's 1) career averages and 2) 2007 averages, we get the following...

Vernon Davis projections (using career average per game) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

4.2 receptions for 50 yards and 0.38 TD's / 67-800-6 over full 16 games

Vernon Davis projections (using average per game in 2007) with 40% more receptions, 54% more yards and 29% more TD's:

5.2 receptions for 56 yards and 0.38 TD's / 83-896-6 over full 16 games

Summary

If you believe VD will not improve over 2006 and/or 2007 and will simply piggy-back Martz's passing success, a good baseline for a full 16-game season is somewhere near 75-850-6. These numbers would have placed him #4 behind Gonzo, Witten, Winslow and Gates last year. However, if you believe VD will continue to improve, who knows his full upside...??
Click to expand...
:kicksrock: .....NOT!
 
i just picked up Davis off waivers in 2 dynasty leagues. :excited: I know, he sucks right now, but maybe when Martz leaves next year he'll have value? ;)

 
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