Very interesting article (1 Viewer)

[Sweetness_34]

This is a long article, but very interesting none the less. This article also reconfirms my belief in the Bears draft (which many people initially criticized for being too focussed on D). I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/20...ising_draft.php

 

[cstu]

This is a long article, but very interesting none the less. This article also reconfirms my belief in the Bears draft (which many people initially criticized for being too focussed on D). I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/20...ising_draft.php

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whitner is a great player and I didn't question that pick as much as McCargo. Seriously, trading up for the third defensive player in the 1st round from NCState? If he turns out to be great they will look like geniuses, but he's going to have to be special to make him worth what they gave up when he probably would have been there at #42 - or at least Wroten.

 

[Wadsworth]

Goodness that's a long article. But I guess with a first two rounds like the Bills had you need a long article to explain to us ignorant fans the genius of Whitner at 8 and trading up for McCargo. Lucky for me an article on the Bills site showed me how the Bills where right and I was wrong.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine. A bunch of guys who haven't watched extensive film (or attended players' private workouts, or interviewed players, or given them medical exams, or talked to their college coaches, etc.) criticize the draft selections made by guys who have done all those things, and it makes no sense.

When a sportswriter's opinion differs from an NFL GM's opinion about a certain player, it's more likely that the sportswriter is wrong and the GM is right than vice versa. (The "Matt Millen Exception" is duly noted.) It is therefore rather ridiculous for a sportswriter to criticize an NFL team for selecting a player that the NFL team liked better than the sportswriter did.

Sportswriters and fans have a right to their opinions. It's all part of the fun. But some realism and humility are in order. Grades given to teams by the media are for entertainment purposes only; too often, however, the media hacks (as Sweetness called them) seem to take themselves and their draft grades seriously, and it's rather off-putting.

(Although I do like both Kiper and Gosselin.)

 

[Tommy Collins]

Nice article. If this guy needs an editor I'll have to apply, some confusing wording here and there and the longest run on sentence in history lol:

While the draft presents an opportunity for teams to get a significant infusion of talent onto their rosters, how many players a team may acquire in the draft , what their reputations were in college, or where they were taken on draft day is not nearly as important as whether they are the right players for the team, whether they are the best players available to fit the team's needs and requirements, and whether they the proper attitude and work ethic to fit in with the rest of the team's players and work with them and the coaches to not only get better as individuals, but as a cohesive and united team with the purpose of winning a Super Bowl championship as its goal every year.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

it certainly seems like there is a reasonable chance that the Lions could have taken Whitner at #9 and the Giants could have taken McCargo at #32. If the Bills traded down from #8 or didn't trade up to #26, they may not have gotten the player(s) they really wanted.

I'm sure most of the "experts" would have predicted Winston Justice to be gone long before he actually went off the board. So, if the Bills had taken him at #8, they probably would have gotten pats on the back from most even though it would have been an enormous reach given all the info we have now.

The Bills apparently felt McCargo was the 3rd best DT in this draft, a great fit for their defense, and that there was a significant dropoff after him. While I wonder whether he really is a great fit since they seem to need a NT and not another 3-technique guy, I have to respect the fact that they decided he was the guy they really wanted and they went out and got him. Same thing with Whitner...while it would have been nice to trade down and add more picks, they might have been worse off taking 2 guys they sort of liked instead of one player that they really love.

Fact is these Bills aren't going to compete for a playoff spot this year even if they knocked this draft out of the park. So, I'm just hoping that they hit on as many of their picks as possible to upgrade the overall talent level of the club. I also hope they add players to the roster who are mentally tough, internally motivated, and coachable as I think those are the types of players who ultimately help you win. I don't think the Bills have had enough of those players, and I'm not sure if Donahoe placed enough of an emphasis on those qualities in the past.

For anyone that can look past the surprising moves the Bills made in round 1, and those players certainly have the potential to live up to their draft spot at some point, the rest of their picks all look very solid. The only real knock I have on their draft is that they may not have maximized the value of the picks they had, and they didn't add anyone likely to be significant upgrade at LT this year or next. I'm also not sure they solved the problems they ran into with their run defense last year after Pat Williams left town, and now Sam Adams is gone as well. Therefore, if this year winds up being another year with poor offensive line play and a defensive line that can't stop the run, this draft will look like a failure. I'm also not sure what their plan is at WR with the deals they handed out to Josh Reed and Peerless Price. However, it does look like they added some nice building blocks in the draft and have made huge improvements to the secondary.

The Bills certainly aren't going to turn things around overnight, but if they can find a QB this year and if Levy's coaching choice works out better than expected, they shouldn't be too far away a year from now. Another high draft spot certainly won't hurt either.

 

[Tommy Collins]

From the same site: http://www.democratandchronicle.com/apps/p...315/1007/SPORTS

Bills worked NFL draft the right way, addressing their broken-down defense

Leo Roth

Staff writer

(May 2, 2006) — So let me get this straight.

The Buffalo Bills obtained four of the Top 65 rated college football players in the country and five potential defensive starters overall.

On paper, they upgraded one of the worst defensive units in the NFL last season, addressing the line and safety positions after years of neglect. They nabbed two highly rated defensive backs in the third and fourth rounds, took three big offensive linemen, hoping to find a sleeper, and overall got quicker, deeper and smarter.

And that's a bad draft?

Because they passed on quarterback Matt Leinart with the eighth overall pick? Because they didn't trade down to take strong safety Donte Whitner and they did trade up to get defensive tackle John McCargo, an egregious act of "value" tampering the draft experts say?

Please. I get why many fans and media are ridiculing the decision by new general manager Marv Levy and coach **** Jauron to pass on Leinart. It's not every day a former Heisman Trophy winner who won two national titles falls into your team's lap.

But the comments I've heard convince me that western New York is no longer experiencing mere quarterback withdrawal since Jim Kelly retired going on 10 years ago, it's now a plague.

One fan said Levy's first draft as GM is proof the Bills don't want to win. How does rebuilding a 29th-ranked defense show you're not committed to winning?

Another said this is proof owner Ralph Wilson is cheap, that a safety costs a lot less to pay than a quarterback. That's true. But if Wilson were that cheap, he'd have nixed having to pay an extra first rounder for the second time in three years.

Frankly, anyone outraged that the Bills passed on Leinart or Jay Cutler, the quarterback Levy actually liked better, is turning a blind eye to how utterly bad Buffalo's defense was last year.

Remember? Outscored 123-59 in the fourth quarter? The epic collapse against Miami? Those annual drubbings by New England?

They make Leinart sound like a sure thing, dismissing the fact quarterbacks have an incredibly high bust-rate as first-round choices (60 percent the past 15 years), that they usually take three seasons to become merely competent, and that the Bills' former GM, Tom Donahoe, spent first-round picks to obtain quarterbacks in two of the past four drafts (the Drew Bledsoe trade and J.P. Losman).

How many more years do you paint the house and not fix the foundation?

And why are the Bills so dumb if Houston, the New York Jets, Green Bay and Oakland — teams who could've used quarterbacks picking before Buffalo — also passed on Leinart and Cutler?

The fact is, this wasn't considered an outstanding draft year for quarterbacks.

2004 was and the Bills got one of the four big names that year, Losman, after Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger.

Eight starts is simply not enough time to evaluate Losman properly. His development was stunted last year by a silly, impatient head coach (Mike Mularkey).

He deserves a chance to win the job outright in an open competition and he'll get that under Jauron against young free agent Craig Nall, who people are underestimating, and veteran Kelly Holcomb.

Jauron didn't go 13-3 with the Chicago Bears in 2001 because of bust first-round quarterback Cade McNown, the 12th overall pick in the ballyhooed QB Class of 1999. It was because of a free agent veteran QB (Jim Miller), a rookie running back (Anthony Thomas, now a Bill) and an outstanding defense, led by his first two picks in 2000, linebacker Brian Urlacher and safety Mike Brown.

Levy, the old coach, also built his title teams on balance between offense, defense and special teams. Knowing this, how was Leinart's huge salary supposed to help a team as needy as Buffalo become better overall at this juncture?

The draft is a crapshoot, but the chances are better than good that the Bills laid the foundation for a strong defense in this draft, enough to counter rival Miami, which has added Daunte Culpepper, and New England, which drafted a stud running back, wide receiver and two tight ends to give Tom Brady even more help.

In Whitner, the Bills may actually have a strong safety that can shut down a growing legion of athletic tight ends, that has the speed needed to disguise a blitz. McCargo, meanwhile, replaces departed free agent Pat Williams two years after the fact.

Levy stayed at No. 8 for Whitner because he felt Detroit would take him at No. 9 and came up for McCargo because the New York Giants wanted him at No. 32.

But if Whitner and McCargo were "reaches" in the first round then cornerback Ashton Youboty and free safety Ko Simpson were "steals" in the third and fourth because those two defensive backs had first-round grades.

Call it even. And credit Levy and Jauron for their convictions. It really doesn't matter where they drafted their players but that they got the players they wanted.

And if the Bills do strike out with Losman or Nall, fine. They'll have a shot at Notre Dame's Brady Quinn next year or some other free agent. And that quarterback should have a fine young defense to support him. Like Roethlisberger has had with the Super Bowl champion Steelers.

 

[Tommy Collins]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine. A bunch of guys who haven't watched extensive film (or attended players' private workouts, or interviewed players, or given them medical exams, or talked to their college coaches, etc.) criticize the draft selections made by guys who have done all those things, and it makes no sense.

When a sportswriter's opinion differs from an NFL GM's opinion about a certain player, it's more likely that the sportswriter is wrong and the GM is right than vice versa. (The "Matt Millen Exception" is duly noted.) It is therefore rather ridiculous for a sportswriter to criticize an NFL team for selecting a player that the NFL team liked better than the sportswriter did.

Sportswriters and fans have a right to their opinions. It's all part of the fun. But some realism and humility are in order. Grades given to teams by the media are for entertainment purposes only; too often, however, the media hacks (as Sweetness called them) seem to take themselves and their draft grades seriously, and it's rather off-putting.

(Although I do like both Kiper and Gosselin.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Some guys just don't understand it. If Kiper and Gosselin know so much, then why aren't they scouts, GMs working for teams? They give us some insight but they don't know everything that the teams do. The only thing they did was rile up the Bills fans about the picks and did a damn good job about it. I like these guys, but you can't refer to their mock drafts as the holy bible either.

 

[GRIDIRON ASSASSIN]

Very interesting picture of the Bills War Room last Saturday.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Very interesting picture of the Bills War Room last Saturday.

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[Dreamer]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine. A bunch of guys who haven't watched extensive film (or attended players' private workouts, or interviewed players, or given them medical exams, or talked to their college coaches, etc.) criticize the draft selections made by guys who have done all those things, and it makes no sense.

When a sportswriter's opinion differs from an NFL GM's opinion about a certain player, it's more likely that the sportswriter is wrong and the GM is right than vice versa. (The "Matt Millen Exception" is duly noted.) It is therefore rather ridiculous for a sportswriter to criticize an NFL team for selecting a player that the NFL team liked better than the sportswriter did.

Sportswriters and fans have a right to their opinions. It's all part of the fun. But some realism and humility are in order. Grades given to teams by the media are for entertainment purposes only; too often, however, the media hacks (as Sweetness called them) seem to take themselves and their draft grades seriously, and it's rather off-putting.

(Although I do like both Kiper and Gosselin.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree, also the players drafted NEVER EVER fall right in line talent and career wise with their draft position, so only Miss Cleo :call me know: really knows who the winners and losers are now. The rest of us actually have to wait and see.

 

[Liquid Tension]

This is a long article, but very interesting none the less. This article also reconfirms my belief in the Bears draft (which many people initially criticized for being too focussed on D). I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/20...ising_draft.php

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Interesting take, but I think there is one assumption here that can be dangerous. This is not an exact science. Therefore, the idea in getting the most value is that it increases your chances of success. Sure, if they are right about their guys than it was a fine move. However, what if they aren't? Then they left a couple of 2nd and 3rd round picks on the table. One never knows whether the Giants would have taken one ofthe players they coveted, but one knows they could have received extra picks and extra value and MAYBE still got the guy they wanted...that is how to work the draft. Another point is that I think they pigeon holed themselves by having to take a DT or safety. I mean there are other very good players they could have taken that could have helped their team.If both guys are good players than it was a good move, but they still might have been able to get these guys and received other picks. I think their strategy would have been more appropriate for a team like the Colts who are on the brink of winning the Superbowl rather than a team that is rebuilding.

 

[Doug Drinen]

If Kiper and Gosselin know so much, then why aren't they scouts, GMs working for teams?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not that I'm disagreeing with your point, but many people would consider Kiper's and Gosselin's jobs to be preferable to those of NFL scouts and GMs. Kiper almost certainly makes a lot more money than any NFL scout and he has much more job security than any NFL GM. In other words, maybe they're not working for teams because they don't want to be working for teams. Probably not, but maybe. I'm just trying to make the point that it is possible that some people who don't work for NFL teams are as talented as the people who do.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I was very critical of these picks on Saturday, but I'm starting to feel a little better about them. Granted, a lot of this revolves around speculation on who the Lions, Dolphins, and Giants would have taken had we not done what we did, but that speculation seems to be backed up by more inside information than the early assumption that those two players would have been there earlier. I was fine with the players themselves; I just thought we paid a higher price than necessary for them. If that's not the case, then I guess I have nothing to complain about.

 

[raidergil]

If Kiper and Gosselin know so much, then why aren't they scouts, GMs working for teams?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Not that I'm disagreeing with your point, but many people would consider Kiper's and Gosselin's jobs to be preferable to those of NFL scouts and GMs. Kiper almost certainly makes a lot more money than any NFL scout and he has much more job security than any NFL GM. In other words, maybe they're not working for teams because they don't want to be working for teams. Probably not, but maybe. I'm just trying to make the point that it is possible that some people who don't work for NFL teams are as talented as the people who do.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Same reason some people are consultants or business owners rather than working for a corporation. The draft and analyzing college players is Kiper's life. As a GM he'd only be focused on 1 team, have to negotiate contracts, work the salary cap, woo free agenst among other things. In this job he's working his passion. Not defending him as all knowing, but without him (and ESPN) the NFL Draft isn't close to the event it is now. Without guys like Kiper the rest of us have no idea how our teams drafted much past the 1st round. Honestly, without Kiper et al rating players, how many of us know the Bills got seemingly great value with their 3rd & 4th picks?

 

[GroveDiesel]

The Super Bowl may be won or lost on draft day, but “winning” or “losing” in the eyes of the draft “gurus” is not what determines who will win or lose the Super Bowl. Contrary to what the “draft gurus” and many fans would like to believe, the purpose of the NFL draft is not for a team to “win” or “lose” by getting the “best value” for the picks that it makes on draft day. For “Old Schoolers”, like Marv Levy and many of the wiser heads around the NFL, the purpose of the NFL draft is for teams to acquire some of the talent that they need to build a football team that is able to compete every week during the season and win enough of its games to get to and win a Super Bowl championship game.

 

[wadegarrett]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine. A bunch of guys who haven't watched extensive film (or attended players' private workouts, or interviewed players, or given them medical exams, or talked to their college coaches, etc.) criticize the draft selections made by guys who have done all those things, and it makes no sense.

When a sportswriter's opinion differs from an NFL GM's opinion about a certain player, it's more likely that the sportswriter is wrong and the GM is right than vice versa. (The "Matt Millen Exception" is duly noted.) It is therefore rather ridiculous for a sportswriter to criticize an NFL team for selecting a player that the NFL team liked better than the sportswriter did.

Sportswriters and fans have a right to their opinions. It's all part of the fun. But some realism and humility are in order. Grades given to teams by the media are for entertainment purposes only; too often, however, the media hacks (as Sweetness called them) seem to take themselves and their draft grades seriously, and it's rather off-putting.

(Although I do like both Kiper and Gosselin.)

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

Very interesting picture of the Bills War Room last Saturday.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Playing devil's advocate, here.

But it will be interesting to see what happens.

Evidently, Whitner and McCargo were important players. But this can also be interpreted as a team falling in love with a certain player.

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Very interesting picture of the Bills War Room last Saturday.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Playing devil's advocate, here.

But it will be interesting to see what happens.

Evidently, Whitner and McCargo were important players. But this can also be interpreted as a team falling in love with a certain player.

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's just like fantasy football in that respect. Sure, you could have drafted Steve Smith in the first round last year and ended up being correct about his performance. But unless you won the Championship, you should have picked up someone else in the first round and picked Smith in the 2nd (or the 3rd or the 4th, etc).

 

[GroveDiesel]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, the argument the article makes is a pretty strong argument for why the Bills actually did not ignore opportunity cost. They felt that the difference between the #2 safety and the #3 safety was much greater than that between the #2 DT and the #3 DT. They also felt that the difference between the #3 DT and the #4 DTs were so great that it was worth a 3rd rounder to move up to insure that they got the #3 DT on the board. The Bills also believed that there were no other OTs in the draft that could be good first year starters outside of Ferguson. So if they believed that, then it would have made no sense to take an OT early when they felt that they could get starters at other positions and still get OTs later in the draft that could develop into starters. Clearly other teams also felt as if Justice was not worth a first round pick as well. And yet everyone would have said that the Bills did fine if they had taken Justice at #8. Talk about how horrible the value would have been then.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How in the world did you arrive at that conclusion based on the article?Edit: What GroveDiesel said.

 

[GroveDiesel]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How in the world did you arrive at that conclusion based on the article?Edit: What GroveDiesel said.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think we may share the same football mind.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How in the world did you arrive at that conclusion based on the article?Edit: What GroveDiesel said.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can buy the Whitner pick. I do not buy the trade up for McCargo. I do not believe that the Giants would have taken him and I do not believe that the drop from him to the next DT is as great as they think. I also think that Justice would have been a steal at 42. Losing a 3rd in a draft this deep was a mistake.

 

[J R]

great article. i wish i could read one article like this for each team, rather than all the stupid grades articles that devote 2 lines to each team, and read exactly alike from one place to another other than the grade at the top. a couple of things worth adding...

1, kiper didn't criticize the whitner pick, even though mort tried to get him to say so. it was about the one time all day that anyone at the table acted like what they'd rather hear kiper talk than irvin and jackson giggle. kiper criticized the mccargo pick, but also said if you flipped mccargo and youboty around, no one would complain, in effect suggesting that on the 'value board' the bills in the end made out OK.

2, gm jr had mccargo going i think going to the giants late 1st something like 3 months ago. mccargo may have been a reach according to mel's value board, but people like mel and gosselin aren't scouting so much as they're just reporting a consensus grade. so mccargo could have been an across-the-board 2nd rounder, or he could have had a mix of 1st round grades and 3rd round grades.

 

[Barry Jive and The Uptown Five]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, the argument the article makes is a pretty strong argument for why the Bills actually did not ignore opportunity cost. They felt that the difference between the #2 safety and the #3 safety was much greater than that between the #2 DT and the #3 DT. They also felt that the difference between the #3 DT and the #4 DTs were so great that it was worth a 3rd rounder to move up to insure that they got the #3 DT on the board. The Bills also believed that there were no other OTs in the draft that could be good first year starters outside of Ferguson. So if they believed that, then it would have made no sense to take an OT early when they felt that they could get starters at other positions and still get OTs later in the draft that could develop into starters. Clearly other teams also felt as if Justice was not worth a first round pick as well. And yet everyone would have said that the Bills did fine if they had taken Justice at #8. Talk about how horrible the value would have been then.

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I'm not going to go back and read the entire article to pull quotes, but the thread basically used a bunch of assumptions about what team was going to take McCargo or what team was going to take Whitner and presented them as facts/absolutes.DET taking Whitner a fact? Miami trading up as a fact? Big asusmptions. The writer is assuming that those teams had the same lofty opinion of Whitner compared to the next safeties. My hunch is that DET was going LB-SS all along and MIA & Saban had the SEC veteran Allen as their S#2 behind Huff.

NYG drafting McCargo at 1.32 after the trade down with PIT as fact? Again, I don't think so. But more importantly, I don't think the writer has any more concrete information on what the other warroom's draft boards do than I do.

All's I'm saying is that this piece can simply be viewed as a homer piece trying to rationalize/justify what many thought to be a VERY strange round 1 for the Bills.

And FWIW - I don't think the Bills had the worst 1st day. That's why I gave the pot-kettle smilie to GRID. The Bears were the worst IMHO. And as for my own homer team, the Steelers, I'm still not pleased with their 2nd-3rd Round decisions.

 

[cstu]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

How in the world did you arrive at that conclusion based on the article?Edit: What GroveDiesel said.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I can buy the Whitner pick. I do not buy the trade up for McCargo. I do not believe that the Giants would have taken him and I do not believe that the drop from him to the next DT is as great as they think. I also think that Justice would have been a steal at 42. Losing a 3rd in a draft this deep was a mistake.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The problem that the Bills faced coming into this year's draft was that there were not that many defensive tackles in the draft pool who were projected to be a good fit in their new “Cover 2” defensive scheme. The top-rated DT, Haloti Ngata, really was not an ideal fit, physically, for the system. The physically gifted Broderick Bunkley did fit the system and had risen up the draft charts after a spectacular workout at the NFL Combine, but had only one very good season at Florida State and there were questions about his character and the consistency of his work ethic. Claude Wroten, from LSU, was perhaps as physically gifted as Bunkley, had had a good college career and was a fit for the system, but had been arrested for marijuana possession with intent to distribute just prior to the NFL Combine. John McCargo, the player that the Bills ended up selecting, was a very talented player who fit the system, but had missed the final six games of the 2005 season with an injury.

I think the Bears made a huge mistake trading up for McCargo. Even if McCargo was taken before #42, they could still have drafted have draft Wroten who dropped to #68 (steal by the Rams BTW). The #73 they gave up would have been a very good player.

 

[GroveDiesel]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, the argument the article makes is a pretty strong argument for why the Bills actually did not ignore opportunity cost. They felt that the difference between the #2 safety and the #3 safety was much greater than that between the #2 DT and the #3 DT. They also felt that the difference between the #3 DT and the #4 DTs were so great that it was worth a 3rd rounder to move up to insure that they got the #3 DT on the board. The Bills also believed that there were no other OTs in the draft that could be good first year starters outside of Ferguson. So if they believed that, then it would have made no sense to take an OT early when they felt that they could get starters at other positions and still get OTs later in the draft that could develop into starters. Clearly other teams also felt as if Justice was not worth a first round pick as well. And yet everyone would have said that the Bills did fine if they had taken Justice at #8. Talk about how horrible the value would have been then.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not going to go back and read the entire article to pull quotes, but the thread basically used a bunch of assumptions about what team was going to take McCargo or what team was going to take Whitner and presented them as facts/absolutes.DET taking Whitner a fact? Miami trading up as a fact? Big asusmptions. The writer is assuming that those teams had the same lofty opinion of Whitner compared to the next safeties. My hunch is that DET was going LB-SS all along and MIA & Saban had the SEC veteran Allen as their S#2 behind Huff.

NYG drafting McCargo at 1.32 after the trade down with PIT as fact? Again, I don't think so. But more importantly, I don't think the writer has any more concrete information on what the other warroom's draft boards do than I do.

All's I'm saying is that this piece can simply be viewed as a homer piece trying to rationalize/justify what many thought to be a VERY strange round 1 for the Bills.

And FWIW - I don't think the Bills had the worst 1st day. That's why I gave the pot-kettle smilie to GRID. The Bears were the worst IMHO. And as for my own homer team, the Steelers, I'm still not pleased with their 2nd-3rd Round decisions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree, the article is definitely based on assumptions. But isn't that the point? Nobody can possibly say that Detroit or Miami absolutely would not have taken Whitner (excepting those teams themselves obviously). The same can be said with the Giants and McGargo. There's at least an argument to be made that's not an unreasonable one that those teams would have taken those players. And if the Bills went into the draft wanting to upgrade primarily at Safety and DT, then perhaps losing a 3rd round pick was worth it to insure that they got the players that they felt maximized their overall value at those positions.

I was listening to Len Pastabelly on Philly SportsTalk 950 yesterday evening and he seemed pretty convinced that the Giants were going to take McGargo. He said that he thought that the Giants were initially targeting Carpenter and then traded down once he was taken to take McCargo, but then got really thrown off when the Bills traded up and took him.

Maybe the Bills did really reach on two picks and it will hurt them. I don't know. But the same experts saying that those picks were reaches are the same people that had Winston Justice going in the top 15 and Ashton Youboty as a 1st rounder. But for some reason we're supposed to believe that a team taking a player higher than the "expert" thought they should go messed up and not the "expert?" And we also hear about how much dis-information there is out there before the draft, but continue to hear the "experts" say that "Well, 16 of the 20 teams that I talked to thought that this player was a third rounder." So suddenly everything those teams are saying isn't dis-information?

Like I said, maybe the Bills did in fact screw up. I'm still not convinced that Justice wouldn't have been a better pick with that 2nd first round pick. But obviously a lot of teams felt the same way as the Bills. Buffalo clearly went into the draft with certain positions that they wanted to improve. Much like fantasy football players they probably had players at those positions tiered. When it got to their pick they saw that there was a huge dropoff between the top safety left on their board and the next best guy and they still had 2 DTs in the top tier and 1 DT in a second tier just slightly below the top tier. So they took the Safety because the VBD numbers indicated that the value was at the safety position. Then they basically did the same thing in taking a DT. They wanted a DT and saw a huge dropoff between McCargo and the next guy on their board. They still had 15 picks before they picked and burned a 3rd rounder to move up and insure they got that value.

 

[GroveDiesel]

I think the Bears made a huge mistake trading up for McCargo.  Even if McCargo was taken before #42, they could still have drafted have draft Wroten who dropped to #68 (steal by the Rams BTW).  The #73 they gave up would have been a very good player.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is absolutely no way the Bills would have taken Wroten. Levy made it very clear that he will not have players with any character issues on his team. No matter what the physical skills are, he'll take the no-nonsense, intelligent hard worker over the physically gifted problem child. And getting busted for pot is one thing, having the "intent to distribute" charge added on could be a big deal. That's at least strike one already in the NFL drug program. One more and he's looking at a suspension.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

So McCargo also missed the last 6 games of the season last year? And they had just picked up his doppelganger in Tripplett? Bad move.

 

[cstu]

I think the Bears made a huge mistake trading up for McCargo.  Even if McCargo was taken before #42, they could still have drafted have draft Wroten who dropped to #68 (steal by the Rams BTW).  The #73 they gave up would have been a very good player.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

There is absolutely no way the Bills would have taken Wroten. Levy made it very clear that he will not have players with any character issues on his team. No matter what the physical skills are, he'll take the no-nonsense, intelligent hard worker over the physically gifted problem child. And getting busted for pot is one thing, having the "intent to distribute" charge added on could be a big deal. That's at least strike one already in the NFL drug program. One more and he's looking at a suspension.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

First of all, those charges were dropped and it happened before he became an NFL player so he won't be in the the NFL drug program. I'm not sure about him going in after failing a drug test at the combine. Also, the "intent to distribute" charges were a joke since he had less than an ounce on him:

Sterlington Police Chief Barry Bonner said while one officer spoke to Wroten, another officer noticed a plastic bag filled with what turned out to be 23 grams of marijuana in the back seat and a "nickel bag" containing 1.5 grams, both stuffed inside a tennis shoe.

 

[MLBrandow]

This is a long article, but very interesting none the less. This article also reconfirms my belief in the Bears draft (which many people initially criticized for being too focussed on D). I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

http://www.billszone.com/mtlog/archives/20...ising_draft.php

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Whitner is a great player and I didn't question that pick as much as McCargo. Seriously, trading up for the third defensive player in the 1st round from NCState? If he turns out to be great they will look like geniuses, but he's going to have to be special to make him worth what they gave up when he probably would have been there at #42 - or at least Wroten.
<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Just like trading up for that QB from a couple years ago... whatshisface.... it was all worth it.

 

[Pat Patriot]

I dont see how he comes to the conclusion that this was a BAD year for QB's and 2004 was a good year. Just because Big Ben turned out to be a great player and Eli has done well so far, I dont think you can compare 2004 to 2005. Considering the consensus going into 2004 and that of 2005, I would consider 2005 (from a draft standpoint) to be a better year for QB's.

Just because 2004 didnt have a Reggie Bush and Mario Williams at the top of the draft and Eli went #1, doesnt make last years pre-draft QB expectations higher than this years.

Using that logic to say taking Losman as the 4th QB in 2004 would have been better than taking Leinart as the #2 QB in 2005 is just laughable.

 

[T Man]

THe Bills get dumped on for jumping too early for McCargo and Whitner. THe theory goes that the Bills hould have traded down and then picked Whitner; and they shouldn't have traded up and picked MCCargo - instead they should have waited.

I am not enamored with the picks; but the theory of trading down only works IF you have a partner that is willing to trade up AND that partner is in a spot that allows you to get the player you want.

FOr example, Cleveland wanted Wembley. It made a lot of sense to trade down one spot and pick up a 6th rounder, but would it have made sense to trade down five spots. Wembley might have been there, but it is likely that the farther he fell the more emboldened another team may have gotten to trade up to get him. THe same was true for Leinart and Cutler.

As for McCargo, if you think he is gone before your 2nd round pick - and he might have been; you have to find a trade partner to move up. IF you want him.

THe funny thing is is that I saw mock drafts from the so called experts that had Youbouty going in the first round around pick 24. THere were a few early mocks that had Simpson going in the first. And there were a few later mocks that had McCargo as an early 2nd very late 1st rounder.

If you switched the McCargo pick with Youbouty, the pundits would have said nothing about the pick. The thought is that they had Youbouty targeted there.

In any event, most would say that the Bills pick up of those four players before the draft would be considered a pretty good draft - not great.

As for Leinart, the Bills were right to pass. FIrst, you have to give Losman another year - as much as it may hurt to do so. A first rounder cannot be discarded in two years.

Secondly, Cutler would be more suited to Buffalo anyway. THe cold and windy Buffalo winters are not necessarily conducive to a QB who while "NFL ready" is criticized for a weak arm. Look at Tim Couch in Cleveland. A stron arm is a necessity.

 

[On The Rocks]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree. you want to grade a draft? Grade the 2002 draft. Not the one that took place 3 days ago. It's just sillyness.

 

[Joseph]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree. you want to grade a draft? Grade the 2002 draft. Not the one that took place 3 days ago. It's just sillyness.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Especially considering all the moaning and groaning Kiper did about picks all over the draft, no team got a grade lower than a C or higher than a B+...How generic has the "draft analysis" gotten that out of 32 teams, all 32 were ranked "average to above average"

 

[Sweetness_34]

It still seems the Bills blatantly ignored the opportunity costs of making the choices they made in RD1.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Actually, the argument the article makes is a pretty strong argument for why the Bills actually did not ignore opportunity cost. They felt that the difference between the #2 safety and the #3 safety was much greater than that between the #2 DT and the #3 DT. They also felt that the difference between the #3 DT and the #4 DTs were so great that it was worth a 3rd rounder to move up to insure that they got the #3 DT on the board. The Bills also believed that there were no other OTs in the draft that could be good first year starters outside of Ferguson. So if they believed that, then it would have made no sense to take an OT early when they felt that they could get starters at other positions and still get OTs later in the draft that could develop into starters. Clearly other teams also felt as if Justice was not worth a first round pick as well. And yet everyone would have said that the Bills did fine if they had taken Justice at #8. Talk about how horrible the value would have been then.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I'm not going to go back and read the entire article to pull quotes, but the thread basically used a bunch of assumptions about what team was going to take McCargo or what team was going to take Whitner and presented them as facts/absolutes.DET taking Whitner a fact? Miami trading up as a fact? Big asusmptions. The writer is assuming that those teams had the same lofty opinion of Whitner compared to the next safeties. My hunch is that DET was going LB-SS all along and MIA & Saban had the SEC veteran Allen as their S#2 behind Huff.

NYG drafting McCargo at 1.32 after the trade down with PIT as fact? Again, I don't think so. But more importantly, I don't think the writer has any more concrete information on what the other warroom's draft boards do than I do.

All's I'm saying is that this piece can simply be viewed as a homer piece trying to rationalize/justify what many thought to be a VERY strange round 1 for the Bills.

And FWIW - I don't think the Bills had the worst 1st day. That's why I gave the pot-kettle smilie to GRID. The Bears were the worst IMHO. And as for my own homer team, the Steelers, I'm still not pleased with their 2nd-3rd Round decisions.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Sorry Barry, but here is my defense of the Bear's draft (which some experts have blasted too because they did not draft offense). I posted this on the FFToday board, but I am reproducing it here so that I can spend some time doing some work too ================================

IF you look closely at the Bears team "Prior" to the draft you would have known that we had secondary problems with our starting Safety "Mike Brown" being consistently injured the past 2 seasons. Former 7th Rounder "Mr. Irrelevant S Mike Green was traded for being wildly inconsistent in the Cover 2 scheme the last 2 years. Todd Johnson being a bad Safety who is not able to cover and doesn't fit Lovie's scheme. Brandon McGowan being injured late last year. No quality depth behind Nathan Vasher and Charles Tillman at CB. Jerry Azhumah had a chronic hip injury that caused him to retire early. Chris Thompson was an UDFA and was burnt horribly by Steve Smith in the playoff game with Carolina. Alfonso Marshall is NFLEurope fodder and not talented enough to compete this year. Hence we brought in Ricky Manning JR to cover the Azumah departure (and no rookie CB can play as well as a vet with experience from a playoff caliber defense as Ricky will the next few years, and considering we are in a "win now" mode, that made sense.)

Also, last year the Bears were 29th in special team return game. Bobby Wade kept fumbling the ball (was cut), and no one else could return the ball well. For a team built on defense, they needed to improve their return game.

So this is what the Bears did.

2 42 Manning, Danieal SS 5-11 201 Abilene Christian

Drafted because Safety Depth on our team was bad. When Mike Brown went out late in the 3rd to last game (vs Pittsburgh) our defense went down significantly (see box scores of Bears vs Steelers, Bears vs Packers – both games and Bears vs Panthers in playoffs). Todd Johnson is bad in the Cover 2 in coverage. Mike Green was traded. Brandon McGowan was injured in the Atlanta game. And we had no depth. Danieal Manning has been said to be compared to Brian Dawkins the S for the Eagles. ESPN has no clue who he is because he played in a small school. Go here to CNNSI and see where Manning was ranked (9th best safety)

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...position/s.html

Also people like Ko Simpson and Darnell Bing fell hard for various reasons and were not considered that good by all teams.

2 57 Hester, Devin Slot WR/CB/PR/KR 5-11 189 Miami (Fla.)

Best athlete available at this pick. Hester can fill into (4) positions! He has good hands to play some slot WR on 3rd downs, he will be a CB with his 4.4 speed, he will definitely return Punts & Kicks. We needed someone to come in and Hester will be an IMMEDIATE impact player. Watch his highlight films and you will see! Remember we were trying to sign Antwaan Randle El and couldn't and Randle El was gonna do the exact same thing for us that Hester will do at a cheaper price!

3 73 Dvoracek, Dusty DT 6-3 305 Oklahoma

This guy is high motor all the time and he will bring that nasty attitude with him to the D-Line! This guy was a terrible tandum with Tommie Harris when Oklahoma was dominating the NCAA College Ranks! The reason they took him is because #1) Ian Scott & Alfonso Boone's contract are up after this season. Ian Scott will likely be re-signed but Boone probably won't be. #2) Tank Johnson's leg is injured and has the possibility to miss half the season. We need someone on that D-Line to stay in the rotation. Bears love to rotate all of their DL throughout the game (and the Bears D is built on playing cover 2 that needs constant pass rush).

4 120 Williams, Jamar ILB 6-0 250 Arizona State

Jerry Angelo has a very good track record of selecting defensive talent in the late rounds on the 2nd day. This pick of Jamar Williams is an excellent pick up because he is Arizona St.'s dominating LB. They mentioned that his nick name is Animal because he plays hard! He is versatile because he has experience at playing all 3 LB positions. You can thank Drew Rosenhaus for this selection because we need some depth for Lance Briggs. Plus Hunter Hillenmeyer is only being tendered for 1 year and may not be back next year. Williams may be a starter by the end of this season or early next year. Jerry Angelo knows how to draft LBs. He got Briggs in the 3rd round and he was a probowl LB last year.

5 159 Anderson, Mark DE 6-4 258 Alabama

Mark Anderson is an extremely fast DE that can turn the corner and get after the QB the only problem he has is that he is not as big and is the size of a OLB but he is a tough high motor guy that gets better as the game goes on. He had an outstanding NFL Scouting Combine where he had the highest high jump at 42". We needed pass rush depth behind Ogunleye and Alex Brown. To win in this league on a consistent basis, it is proen that you better be able to do 2 things - protect your own QB and pressure the opposite QB on a consistent basis (with the new rule changes, the latter is even more important now). Also the cover 2 is based on pressure and speed. In my mind, the Bears should ALWAYS draft these pass rushers in every draft (one every draft), that way we can get fresh legs to rotate in throughout the season, especially on obvious passing situations.

6 195 Runnels, J.D. FB 5-11 235 Oklahoma

J.D. Runnels was the 2nd Best rated FB in the Nation! This guy slipped this far because he is a FB and the FB position is not a "Sexy" position that most teams use in their offense these days. The guy has been blocking for one of the best college RBs in the country now for 2 years (Oklahoma RB Adrian Peterson).



6 200 Reed, Tyler G 6-4 315 Penn State

Tyler Reed is a solid 3 year starter at Penn St. This guy is a solid pick up to develop behind Metcalf, Garza, Ruben Brown (who is 34 yrs old), & Olin Kreutz.

Chicago Bears Undrafted Free Agent Pick Ups:

TE Day, Tim 6-3 264 Oregon

TE Wallace, Cooper 6-3 262 Auburn

Not only did Jerry Angelo go and fix the TE position with one TE he actually got 2 guys! Both Tim Day & Cooper Wallace were productive 3 year starters that were solid. Tim Day has the speed to get down field and stretch the middle. Cooper Wallace is a solid blocking TE. So Desmond Clarke has competition going into training camp!

Anyway, time will tell how the draft went (too early to judge any draft), but Jerry has a history of picking gems in the draft (Alex Brown, Lance Briggs, Ian Scott, Nathan Vasher, Mark Bradley etc were all drafted by Angelo).

Also, as for our offense, we had 0 roster spots at QB or RB (Grossman/Griese/Orton and Benson/Thomas Jones/Adrian Peterson). Same as OL (5 vet starters, 3 of whom have been to probowls and 4 back up OL). Also our OL was one of the best in the league last year (look at the rush totals and sack total stats from last year). We have 5 WRs, 3 of whom did not play much of last year due to injuries, and all 3 of those are young and fast (Berrian, Bradley, Currie). And we have Muhsin Muhammad as the vet. Also, this years draft had absolute crap at WR (the 1st WR was not drafted until pick 25). Even if we had drafted a WR from this draft, he would not have beaten out any of our 5 WRs, and would have been on the bench at least this year. Finally, we definitely needed some competition at TE, although we have Des Clark. And we got that with Tim Day and Wallace. Also, I am sure we will get a TE from FA (teams will cut Tes after the draft had 12 TEs selected – for eg Daniel Graham is supposed to be gone from Pats)

Cheers!!!

 

[Sweetness_34]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I agree. you want to grade a draft? Grade the 2002 draft. Not the one that took place 3 days ago. It's just sillyness.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Especially considering all the moaning and groaning Kiper did about picks all over the draft, no team got a grade lower than a C or higher than a B+...How generic has the "draft analysis" gotten that out of 32 teams, all 32 were ranked "average to above average"

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

He has intentionally been doing that recently so that he does not get on the wrong side of organizations. He wants to have good relationships with everyone so that he can get info from them.

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

IF you look closely at the Bears team "Prior" to the draft you would have known that we had secondary problems with our starting Safety "Mike Brown" being consistently injured the past 2 seasons.

interesting use of quotation marks in this sentence.

 

[cstu]

I am so tired of all of these media hacks (Kiper, Gosselin etc) who love to criticize any given draft, when the reality is they do not have a clue themselves.

It's a yearly pet peeve of mine.

I agree. you want to grade a draft? Grade the 2002 draft. Not the one that took place 3 days ago. It's just sillyness.

Especially considering all the moaning and groaning Kiper did about picks all over the draft, no team got a grade lower than a C or higher than a B+...How generic has the "draft analysis" gotten that out of 32 teams, all 32 were ranked "average to above average"

He has intentionally been doing that recently so that he does not get on the wrong side of organizations. He wants to have good relationships with everyone so that he can get info from them.

It's also a matter of how can you give a team an "F" when they added talent that they wanted. For me a "C" grade is about as low as you can go unless they drafted a bunch of players who won't make the roster.