Warrick Dunn (1 Viewer)

[Banger]

I'm trying to evaluate the various "RBBC" situations and find the best value. I don't know if Dunn's situation would be classified as RBBC, in fact I'm not sure what position he's in since he's been flying pretty much under the radar. There was some talk of him getting cut but that came and went. Norwood is obviously a good young rookie but while Dunn is still on the roster I'd expect him to continue to get significant carries.

Looking over the past 3 years, Dunn's carries have been relatively consistent (265, 280 and 286) while the TD's have been pretty low (9, 3, and 4). I didn't realize this until I was just looking at the #'s but he finished with the 12 most carries in the league last year. He's also very durable and hasn't missed a game in 3 seasons. Frequently, the veteran starter is put out to pasture prematurely by the fantasy community when the new hotshot arrives (Davis/Foster, Dillon/Maroney, Deuce/Bush, etc.) and the veteran has that experience that the coach loves (and is often overlooked by fantasy nerds). Looking at this situation I'm wondering if this is another one of those cases.

Dunn is currently ranked 34th and finished 24th last year while only averaging 4 ypc (was 5.1 the prior year). I'd appreciate any opinions/insight/rumors/coach speak regarding Dunn's situation this year because I'm thinking he could be a decent #3 RB (with #2 upside) for one more year. Is Mora's departure going to effect him in a negative way?

 

[Futz]

I expect Dunn to get the bulk of the work early but by midseason I'm expecting a 50/50 tilt and then even perhaps 60/40 in favor of Norwood especially if ATL is remotely close to the playoffs in order to save Dunn. Kinda like Rhodes/Addai of last year.

 

[Fiddles]

I love Dunn and think he's got plenty left in the tank however I've grown leary of the atlanta rbs this year because of the injuries to coleman and dwilliams along with losing kerney. Who knows if abraham will stay healthy.

I have a bad feeling about atlantas D this year and am thinking they are going to need to play alot of catchup

 

[FTRWRTR]

Dunn is 32 and on a one year deal. On top of that Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year so I don't see how dunn can get significantly more than half of the carries in Atlanta. He might make some noise but at best he'll be a decent #3 option for someone's ff team but I see him more as a #4 rb

 

[Banger]

Dunn is 32 and on a one year deal. On top of that Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year so I don't see how dunn can get significantly more than half of the carries in Atlanta. He might make some noise but at best he'll be a decent #3 option for someone's ff team but I see him more as a #4 rb

I agree on paper it looks like Norwood should be handed the reigns but does anyone have an idea of what type of blocker Norwood is? What type of scheme is Petrino going to run? Same as Mora? A number of people thought that Benson was going to take the job last year and I wouldn't be surprised if this situation works out the same. It seems to happen every year.Also, ypc tends to be skewed when RB's don't have many carries (i.e. Turner, Norwood, Drew) due to a few big runs. I always hate when others do this but if you take out Norwoods two biggest carries his ypc drops 1.3 ypc. That's pretty dramatic.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Dunn is 32 and on a one year deal. On top of that Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year so I don't see how dunn can get significantly more than half of the carries in Atlanta. He might make some noise but at best he'll be a decent #3 option for someone's ff team but I see him more as a #4 rb

I agree on paper it looks like Norwood should be handed the reigns but does anyone have an idea of what type of blocker Norwood is? What type of scheme is Petrino going to run? Same as Mora? A number of people thought that Benson was going to take the job last year and I wouldn't be surprised if this situation works out the same. It seems to happen every year.

Big difference is benson didn't average 6.4 ypc as a rookie. Nor was jones 32 years old

 

[jurrassic]

The problem with Dunn is two-fold:

1.) He doesn't score alot of td's, so he needs the carries to justify his value

2.) New coaching staff, who know what they are going to do.

Initially, my thinking is I would rather draft Norwood, than Dunn. He has a higher upside and a better chance to get the goalline carries. Who knows? This is a good pre-season battle to watch.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.

If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

 

[LHUCKS]

When Jerious Norwood touches the ball I feel like he can take it to the house every time.

Both Dunn and Norwood can and probably will split carries but look for Norwood to have more TDs and a better YPC.

 

[Banger]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

Basically that's what I keep coming back to and why I wanted to look a little closer at the situation.

 

[kensat30]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

Basically that's what I keep coming back to and why I wanted to look a little closer at the situation.

Fred Taylor got $5 million, but that doesn't stop people from taking MJD in the 2nd round.

 

[Jeff Haseley]

When I look at this positional battle I see one glaring statistic.

Jerious Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC on 99 carries last year. That's 2.4 MORE yards per carry than Dunn, against the same defensive players with the same offensive line. To me, that tells an awful lot. This is Norwood's year, but I would be surprised to see ATL just brush Dunn under the rug. It should be interesting to see who gets the majority of carries, but there's not a doubt in my mind that right now, Norwood is the better back. Dunn's receiving abilities and 3rd down presence will keep him afloat, but other than that I think it's Norwood's job for the taking.

 

[Banger]

When I look at this positional battle I see one glaring statistic.

Jerious Norwood averaged 6.4 YPC on 99 carries last year. That's 2.4 MORE yards per carry than Dunn, against the same defensive players with the same offensive line. To me, that tells an awful lot. This is Norwood's year, but I would be surprised to see ATL just brush Dunn under the rug. It should be interesting to see who gets the majority of carries, but there's not a doubt in my mind that right now, Norwood is the better back. Dunn's receiving abilities and 3rd down presence will keep him afloat, but other than that I think it's Norwood's job for the taking.

M. Turner had 6.3 and LT had a 5.2.

 

[cstu]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

I agree, I just don't see them paying that much to keep him as a backup. Norwood will have a big role, but barring an injury Dunn should still have a majority of the carries. Dunn is a very safe pick, but the little risk/high reward pick would be Norwood. I think it's a smart move getting them both back to back, even if it's a little early at the 5/6 turn if you're drafting at the 12 spot.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

Might be more carries to go around now.

I was very happy to get Dunn for 18 in my auction, while Norwood went for 36

 

[Banger]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

I agree, I just don't see them paying that much to keep him as a backup. Norwood will have a big role, but barring an injury Dunn should still have a majority of the carries. Dunn is a very safe pick, but the little risk/high reward pick would be Norwood. I think it's a smart move getting them both back to back, even if it's a little early at the 5/6 turn if you're drafting at the 12 spot.

interesting strategy but I'm not sure the payoff is good enough. They only scored 9 rush td's last year (25th in the league) and that includes Vick's 2 so there were 7 among the rb's. Is there any reason to expect a big jump?

 

[Captain Hook]

They could have just got rid of him this year but instead gave up something like 3 million to keep him. If they didn't have a somewhat major role for him planned it would have been much smarter to just let him go and save the money.If healthy i'd be surprised if Dunn didn't get at least 50% of the carries.

I agree, I just don't see them paying that much to keep him as a backup. Norwood will have a big role, but barring an injury Dunn should still have a majority of the carries. Dunn is a very safe pick, but the little risk/high reward pick would be Norwood. I think it's a smart move getting them both back to back, even if it's a little early at the 5/6 turn if you're drafting at the 12 spot.

interesting strategy but I'm not sure the payoff is good enough. They only scored 9 rush td's last year (25th in the league) and that includes Vick's 2 so there were 7 among the rb's. Is there any reason to expect a big jump?

You mean besides their schedule for the run which IIRC is one of the easiest in the league this year?

 

[shakeybarn]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

 

[Banger]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

 

[pack100]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

 

[Restricted]

M. Turner had 6.3 and LT had a 5.2.

So you're saying Dunn = LT?

 

[FF Thinker]

Dunn is 32 and on a one year deal. On top of that Norwood averaged 6.4 ypc last year so I don't see how dunn can get significantly more than half of the carries in Atlanta. He might make some noise but at best he'll be a decent #3 option for someone's ff team but I see him more as a #4 rb

I agree on paper it looks like Norwood should be handed the reigns but does anyone have an idea of what type of blocker Norwood is? What type of scheme is Petrino going to run? Same as Mora? A number of people thought that Benson was going to take the job last year and I wouldn't be surprised if this situation works out the same. It seems to happen every year.Also, ypc tends to be skewed when RB's don't have many carries (i.e. Turner, Norwood, Drew) due to a few big runs. I always hate when others do this but if you take out Norwoods two biggest carries his ypc drops 1.3 ypc. That's pretty dramatic.

Wow, I didn't realize that ypc stat. Everyone talks about Norwoods high ypc. I don't think it is at all wrong to take out his 2 longest carries over the whole season. I just don't think you can do that on an individual game analysis. I am staying away from this situation. Norwood is the guy I would want but I think he will go too high since people assume Dunn is done. I might take a flyer on Dunn if he is there late because he could have some good value at the beginning of the year.

 

[Banger]

M. Turner had 6.3 and LT had a 5.2.

So you're saying Dunn = LT?

Actually I like LT a little better ... my point is that ypc is an interesting stat but doesn't tell the whole story and that just because a player has a better ypc stat than the starter it may or may not mean much. Often times players with fewer carries are put in situations to succeed that suit their skillset and are fresh due to limited carries. If you're the everyday starter things even out and guys don't run for 6+ ypc because they have to pickup 1st downs on 3rd and 1, etc. 1 yard on a 3rd and 1 is much more important than 8 yards and a 3rd and 15 although looking at just stats could lead you to different conclusions. I'm not discounting Norwood at all since I really haven't seen a lot of him but I just know from experience that a lot of coach's like to rely on vet's until the young guy can take over but the fantasy community time after time puts the vets out to pasture before their coachs do. Thus, players like Bruce, Rod Smith, Stephen Davis, etc. are given up for dead but actually offer good value. Atlanta brought back the vet who is very reliable and durable so I thought it may be worth a closer look. Training camp will definitely be key to watch. Although, after yesterdays developments this may all be moot if Vick is suspended since I wouldn't touch either guy with a 10 foot pole.

 

[H.K.]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

If Vick is gone, that may bode well for both backs. Dunn and Norwood would be the best playmakers, and the Falcons would be best served by letting Harrington give them the ball in space to create. The offense would need two RB's more so without Vick than with him, IMO they'd each get a lot of work.

 

[Banger]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

If Vick is gone, that may bode well for both backs. Dunn and Norwood would be the best playmakers, and the Falcons would be best served by letting Harrington give them the ball in space to create. The offense would need two RB's more so without Vick than with him, IMO they'd each get a lot of work.

Ya, but with a terrible defense, no wr's, Harrington at QB, and a decent line I don't see how this situation is any better than Miami '06 (and I don't know if either backs are better than R. Brown at this point). If you can't pick up a 1st down, no matter how much you want to run the ball you just won't have to opportunities. Couple that with a terrible defense and they will be playing from behind each game which takes the ball out of the RB's hands early in the 2nd half. I'm not a huge fan of Vick's but his scrambling ability gets 1st downs, keeps drives alive and keeps the defense off the field. Put Harrington in place of Vick and this team is sunk.

 

[H.K.]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

If Vick is gone, that may bode well for both backs. Dunn and Norwood would be the best playmakers, and the Falcons would be best served by letting Harrington give them the ball in space to create. The offense would need two RB's more so without Vick than with him, IMO they'd each get a lot of work.

Ya, but with a terrible defense, no wr's, Harrington at QB, and a decent line I don't see how this situation is any better than Miami '06 (and I don't know if either backs are better than R. Brown at this point). If you can't pick up a 1st down, no matter how much you want to run the ball you just won't have to opportunities. Couple that with a terrible defense and they will be playing from behind each game which takes the ball out of the RB's hands early in the 2nd half. I'm not a huge fan of Vick's but his scrambling ability gets 1st downs, keeps drives alive and keeps the defense off the field. Put Harrington in place of Vick and this team is sunk.

I agree with everything you said, but if you look at what's left on that offense w/o Vick then the RB's would have to be the focal point, right? What previously was Vick scrambling for first downs should become dump offs to the RB's. I think both Dunn and Norwood would benefit in a PPR format. Put both on the field and try to create mismatches vs. LB's. One thing Vick/ATL have not been doing in the past few seasons is throwing to the RB's. Given the skillsets of Dunn/Norwood one would think Petrino would make this part of the game plan, particularly with Harrington at QB.

 

[Banger]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

If Vick is gone, that may bode well for both backs. Dunn and Norwood would be the best playmakers, and the Falcons would be best served by letting Harrington give them the ball in space to create. The offense would need two RB's more so without Vick than with him, IMO they'd each get a lot of work.

Ya, but with a terrible defense, no wr's, Harrington at QB, and a decent line I don't see how this situation is any better than Miami '06 (and I don't know if either backs are better than R. Brown at this point). If you can't pick up a 1st down, no matter how much you want to run the ball you just won't have to opportunities. Couple that with a terrible defense and they will be playing from behind each game which takes the ball out of the RB's hands early in the 2nd half. I'm not a huge fan of Vick's but his scrambling ability gets 1st downs, keeps drives alive and keeps the defense off the field. Put Harrington in place of Vick and this team is sunk.

I agree with everything you said, but if you look at what's left on that offense w/o Vick then the RB's would have to be the focal point, right? What previously was Vick scrambling for first downs should become dump offs to the RB's. I think both Dunn and Norwood would benefit in a PPR format. Put both on the field and try to create mismatches vs. LB's. One thing Vick/ATL have not been doing in the past few seasons is throwing to the RB's. Given the skillsets of Dunn/Norwood one would think Petrino would make this part of the game plan, particularly with Harrington at QB.

It's a good point, especially in PPR leagues besides Crumpler and the rb's there's nothing else. Is Norwood a good wr?

 

[cstu]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

I disagree, I think whoever they have at QB will pose a greater passing threat than Vick.

 

[Banger]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

I disagree, I think whoever they have at QB will pose a greater passing threat than Vick.

I don't disagree but they won't be as good a runner either. Even if they improve the passing attack by 500 yards it would only improve them to 24th (from dead last).

 

[H.K.]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

If Vick is gone, that may bode well for both backs. Dunn and Norwood would be the best playmakers, and the Falcons would be best served by letting Harrington give them the ball in space to create. The offense would need two RB's more so without Vick than with him, IMO they'd each get a lot of work.

Ya, but with a terrible defense, no wr's, Harrington at QB, and a decent line I don't see how this situation is any better than Miami '06 (and I don't know if either backs are better than R. Brown at this point). If you can't pick up a 1st down, no matter how much you want to run the ball you just won't have to opportunities. Couple that with a terrible defense and they will be playing from behind each game which takes the ball out of the RB's hands early in the 2nd half. I'm not a huge fan of Vick's but his scrambling ability gets 1st downs, keeps drives alive and keeps the defense off the field. Put Harrington in place of Vick and this team is sunk.

I agree with everything you said, but if you look at what's left on that offense w/o Vick then the RB's would have to be the focal point, right? What previously was Vick scrambling for first downs should become dump offs to the RB's. I think both Dunn and Norwood would benefit in a PPR format. Put both on the field and try to create mismatches vs. LB's. One thing Vick/ATL have not been doing in the past few seasons is throwing to the RB's. Given the skillsets of Dunn/Norwood one would think Petrino would make this part of the game plan, particularly with Harrington at QB.

It's a good point, especially in PPR leagues besides Crumpler and the rb's there's nothing else. Is Norwood a good wr?

Scouts Inc said he had good hands coming out of college and thought he could play outside....probably get better info from homers, tho..

 

[FTRWRTR]

What if there's no Vick as well.....

If no Vick, this team will probably be the worst in the league.

No Vick?=Stacked Box= No Falcons on my team

I disagree, I think whoever they have at QB will pose a greater passing threat than Vick.

I have to agree with ctsu with vick most teams kept a lb up close to spy on him. Without vick and assuming the passing game is somewhat decent that lb who used to stay in will have to go out a little more.

 

[FTRWRTR]

Scouts Inc said he had good hands coming out of college and thought he could play outside....probably get better info from homers, tho..

From what I saw I'd say dunn is the better wr of the two but norwood is good and averaged 8.5 ypr on 12 catches last year. That sounds like what you'd expect from a rb catching the ball