Watching Hurricane Ike (1 Viewer)

[The_Man]

Here's the latest info from Weather Underground:

All of the models are calling for a more westward motion, bringing Ike to a landfall in Texas sometime Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. ... The timing and strength of this trough, plus the speed with which Ike moves across the Gulf this week are still uncertain. We cannot be confident yet of a Texas landfall until we see several model runs in row that lock in on this solution. All five major models--the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF--foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. The GFDL model foresees landfall as a Category 2, and the HWRF as a Category 3. Landfall could be as early as Friday afternoon, or as late as Saturday morning.

Houston is bewtween Corpus Christi and Port Arthur. Would they relocate this game? Or postpone it until Monday night, figuring that Ike will be long gone by then?I don't see how Baltimore flies into a hurricane zone on Saturday.

 

[Lefty27]

I was just on the NOAA website and saw where they are projecting Hurricane IKE - it is projected to hit Texas (around the Houston area) on Saturday afternoon. The key is will it slow down; ala Fay & Gustav, and hang in Texas.

Even though they play in a dome, it could have the same impact as they were saying about Gustav in New Orleans.

Houston homers - have they said anything about this? Just curious.

 

[Lupe]

I was just on the NOAA website and saw where they are projecting Hurricane IKE - it is projected to hit Texas (around the Houston area) on Saturday afternoon. The key is will it slow down; ala Fay & Gustav, and hang in Texas.Even though they play in a dome, it could have the same impact as they were saying about Gustav in New Orleans.Houston homers - have they said anything about this? Just curious.

Houston homer ... its way way way too early to know. Media is barely mentioned the hurricane right now. But check back in a few days, the media will be all over it. Hurricane is 5 days out and things change by the hour.

 

[Houston turmOiler]

I work for a bottled water company here and the #### always hits the fan anytime a hurricane enters the gulf. We're aware of it and definitely watching it, but we'll need another day or two to get a better idea. It's looking more and more likely to come this way though, and I'm sure preliminary plans are being discussed throughout the city. I know they are where I work, and our facility is within a mile of Reliant Stadium. Of course we also have to make sure all emergency services and hospitals are stocked with water, so we can't afford to be unprepared. We've been pretty lucky here in Houston for a while now, so I suppose we're overdue. A direct hit on Galveston would be pretty rough on all of us. I don't know what to root for; I don't wish any ill will on anyone else but I sure as hell don't want it here either. I'll be glad when freaking hurricane season is over....

 

[GregR_2]

I was just on the NOAA website and saw where they are projecting Hurricane IKE - it is projected to hit Texas (around the Houston area) on Saturday afternoon. The key is will it slow down; ala Fay & Gustav, and hang in Texas.Even though they play in a dome, it could have the same impact as they were saying about Gustav in New Orleans.Houston homers - have they said anything about this? Just curious.

Only thing I've heard from the Texans is the normal report on if the roof is planned to be open or closed. (Closed.)

 

[GregR_2]

The good news for the Houston area at least, is that the projections keep taking it further south. Yesterday morning the 5-day cone had us smack dab in the middle. This morning we are barely on the outside edge. So hopefully it will not impact the game. (Or the tailgate!)

 

[The_Man]

Ike is making a big move back north. Not great for Houston.

Here are the latest forecast map

Here’s what Weather Underground says.

Hurricane Ike has completed its final traverse of Cuba, and is now over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico. All indications are that Ike will intensify into a very dangerous major hurricane that will hit the Texas coast Friday night or Saturday. ..

The latest 12Z (8am EDT) computer models have come into much better agreement. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, which targets Brownsville, all of the major models foresee a landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Landfall would occur Friday night or Saturday morning, and tropical storm force winds would arrive at the coast on Friday morning. Given the inability of the models to agree until now, this landfall is certainly not a "sure thing", and the cone of uncertainty covers the entire coast of Texas.

Data from the NOAA jet will go into tonight's 00Z (8 pm EDT) model runs, which will be available first thing Wednesday morning. That set of model runs should give us a pretty good idea of where Ike will go. I'm sure emergency managers are not eager to call for an evacuation of Houston, after the debacle of the evacuation for Hurricane Rita in 2005. Over 110 people died in the evacuation--far more than died in the storm. Still, there is a significant chance that an evacuation of large stretches of the Texas coast--including portions of Houston--will have to be ordered on Wednesday or Thursday.

The GFDL and HWRF models show Ike responding to these favorable conditions by intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane on Thursday.

A realistic worse-case scenario for Texas

There is a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in over 40 years. The latest run of the HWRF and GFDL models paint a realistic worst-case scenario for Texas. These models bring Ike to the coast as a Category 4 hurricane (which I give a 20% probability of happening). The HWRF predicts a 170-mile stretch of coast will receive hurricane force winds of 74 mph or greater. A 100-mile stretch of coast will receive winds of Category 3 strength and higher, 115 mph. Hurricane force winds will push inland up to 50 miles, along a 50-mile wide region where the eyewall makes landfall. A 100-mile stretch of Texas coast will receive a storm surge of 10-15 feet, with bays just to the right of where the eye makes landfall receiving a 20-25 foot storm surge.

and here's the National Weather Service forecast discussion -- from the sound of it, Houston might be back in the bullseye by tomorrow

there has been no change to the

forecast track through 48 hours as Ike is expected to move

generally west-northwestward for the next day or two in response to

a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Gulf of

Mexico. There has been a significant narrowing in the spread of the

latest model runs...with the GFS...GFDL...and NOGAPS all showing

less ridging to the north of Ike late in the period and shifting

their tracks northward to be in better agreement with the UKMET and

ECMWF runs. Ike is now expected to recurve around the periphery of

the subtropical ridge near the end of the forecast period. The

official forecast is adjusted northward on days four and five...but

all of the better dynamical models are even farther to the right.

I wonder when the NFL makes a call on this. I'm starting to think a Monday Night game in Houston might make sense, just to let the storm get by.

 

[Bert]

If this thing hits just west of Galveston, (Between Matagorda Bay and Freeport) as most models currently predict, there is no way the Stadium or the city will be ready by Monday.

 

[The_Man]

Rumor on Baltimore talk radio this p.m. was that they've begun looking into having the game in Baltimore, if necessary. Orioles are home on Sunday and the stadiums share a parking lot, so I don't know if that's realistic or not. Last Sunday's Orioles home game got moved to Saturday as part of a day-night double-header. Can't imagine Angelos would let them do that twice.

Oh, wait a minute. If they give him a big check, he'll do anything.

 

[General Tso]

No way on earth they play this game in Houston on Sunday or Monday. No way.