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Weak sauce projections on Team D (1 Viewer)

Keith Lewis

Footballguy
22 teams projected for between 7.7-8.7 fantasy points. So the Ravens vs Browns are the #6 defense this week while the Giants vs Broncos are #26. 8.6 points vs 7.8.

What the heck is this? 10.1 to 6.8 is the entire range for all 32 teams.

Seriously 3.3 point differential for the #1 and #32 defenses.

For perspective here the true value of #1 and #32 week 1 was 30 points.

 
Unless you are suggesting turnovers and defensive TD's are predictable, use it as an index rather than points. It's a comparison from one defense to another, not a specific point projection.

 
Why bother with projections at all? Seems like rankings will suffice, I don't even look at the projections just the order.

I think early last week not one QB was over 300 yards. Was like that often last year.

 
Unless you are suggesting turnovers and defensive TD's are predictable, use it as an index rather than points. It's a comparison from one defense to another, not a specific point projection.
Aren't they to some extent? Does anyone really think the Bears and Jags have the exact same chance of scoring a defensive TD?

 
Why bother with projections at all? Seems like rankings will suffice, I don't even look at the projections just the order.
Rankings can be pretty different depending on scoring systems. Some leagues give a lot of weight to points and yard allowed, for example, and some give no weight at all to points or yards allowed, so their scoring is based mainly on sacks and turnovers.

Once you enter your scoring system, I agree that just looking at the rankings is fine and you can pretty much ignore then projections. But in order to generate rankings for your particular scoring system, we first need to generate projections.

 
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Unless you are suggesting turnovers and defensive TD's are predictable, use it as an index rather than points. It's a comparison from one defense to another, not a specific point projection.
Aren't they to some extent? Does anyone really think the Bears and Jags have the exact same chance of scoring a defensive TD?
Sure, I assume it's some sort of a baseline points based on sacks and INT's which are somewhat predictable and adjusted based on TD possibilities and special team plays. Like 30% chance of a TD is 30% of 6, or whatever. The points given as "projection" in this sense is still better than a straight ranking since defenses in the 4-10 range will probably score about the same. But from, say, 3 to 12, it would be good to know how big the gap is.

 
Does anyone really think the Bears and Jags have the exact same chance of scoring a defensive TD?
They're not the exact same, but even if the Bears are 2.5 times as likely as the Jags* to score a defensive TD this week (which is probably a stretch), it's a difference of about 0.4 TDs. So the difference, while substantial in percentage terms, is not very consequential once translated into expected fantasy points.

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*The Jags actually have a decent chance this week because they're going against the Raiders. So let's say the Giants instead.

 
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