Chaka
Footballguy
It's tough to have faith in Skylar with so little info. I stand by my recommendation.
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Week 06 2022 who should I start thread **OFFICIALLY UNOFFICIAL** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Chaka
- Start date
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Thanks, appreciate your input (and this thread in general.
Beyond the 113 YFS on 14 touches for ETN WK5:
Snap Counts
JR 31-42-43-21-30 = 167
ETN 31-25-33-24-39 = 152
looks up and down, inconclusive, but...
Snap Percentage
JR 48.6-63.4-57.91-46.8-40.0% declining 3 straight weeks
ETN 51.4-36.6-43.3-51.1-53.3 increasing 3 straight weeks
(no, our league doesn't give points for snaps either....ETN still looking for touchdown #1)
JR dominating RZ touches, ETN the clear favorite in routes run & targets
Both will continue to have flex appeal. Big believer in talent here, but JR isn't going away
Chaka
Footballguy
Tee is your best player and he has an early start on Sunday. You also have two more practice days, and Saturday walk throughs to get a better feel for his availability. So, don't rush to rule him out.
I agree that Jeudy is maybe a good option but you gotta remember he's a six target/game guy and his QB has been woefully inefficient and may have a shoulder injury. He feels a little TD dependent unlike Sutton, who gets a little over 9 targets/game and is a higher floor guy.
Pickens is breaking out, however let's not expect Kenny Pickett to throw 52 passes every week. He had a nice game but he was still 3rd on the team in targets with eight. So, what happens if they only throw the ball 36-42 times? Does he still get eight?
Mind you, does Pickens produce more on six targets than Jeudy? Maybe, probably even, but Jeudy has fewer obstacles in front of his targets, Sutton is really the only guy who almost absolutely will get more targets. For Pickens it's Dionte then maybe Najee, maybe Friermuth and maybe Claypool. Melvin & A.O. (or KJ or Hinton) aren't likely eating into Jeudy's spot in the pecking order.
And then there's Taysom. What should we really think about Taysom Hill at this point? 5 TDs on 21 carries this season. Plus one passing TD on one attempt. And zero targets in the passing game. He turned 10 touches (0 targets) into 4 TDs last Sunday. He has a score in 3 of 4 games (4 touches week one, 5 touches week 3)So what is the reasonable expectation going forward? I hate guys with those kind of ratios. Every logic processor in my cranium is screaming "UNSUSTAINABLE!!!"
Rondale may be your safest option, believe it or not. He seemed to step right in for Greg Dortch and has 13 targets over the last two games. In five combined starts Dortch/Moore have 36 targets. Playing against a terrible Seattle defense is an interesting opportunity.
Yeah, this is a real head scratcher. I can see a bunch of flip-flopping between now and kickoff but I'm thinking my favorite combo of ceiling & floor for you is:
Pickens>Moore>Taysom>Jeudy
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
Standard scoring, already starting Dalvin and AJ Brown, need 2 from following:
C.Lamb @ Eagles - almost auto-start, then sucked last week with drops and very tough matchup
K.Walker vs Cards - somehow snagged him last night in waiver run, no real insight but appears to have that job?
C.Kirk @ Colts - not sure what to make of 2 of his past 3 games after starting so well, last week especially was brutal
M.Gordon @ Chargers - hard to trust, you watch him waiting for him to fumble basically and now Murray is there too
A.Lazard vs Jets - Seems good for modest yardage and a td most weeks, decent flex
Lean Lamb and Walker - what do you think?
Thanks
C.Lamb @ Eagles - almost auto-start, then sucked last week with drops and very tough matchup
K.Walker vs Cards - somehow snagged him last night in waiver run, no real insight but appears to have that job?
C.Kirk @ Colts - not sure what to make of 2 of his past 3 games after starting so well, last week especially was brutal
M.Gordon @ Chargers - hard to trust, you watch him waiting for him to fumble basically and now Murray is there too
A.Lazard vs Jets - Seems good for modest yardage and a td most weeks, decent flex
Lean Lamb and Walker - what do you think?
Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
It's a bad matchup but Lamb is clearly the best player so, yes I agree you should start him.
After that it's muddier.
I don't know if Kenneth Walker is as talented a runner as Penny. He did break off a long one, which you can't take away, but we don't have enough info to know if chunk plays are something he can do on a regular basis. But teams aren't running well or often against Arizona and we don't know if Walker will be involved in the passing game, but you are not PPR so that matters less. And 15-ish opportunities is nothing to sneeze at.
non-PPR also makes Kirk far less interesting. Particularly with the Jags playing poorly and on the road against a tough defense who surely remembers week 2.
Teams aren't running a lot against the Chargers either but, when they do they do it well (5.8 ypc). Personally I am convinced Gordon is the #1 back in Denver. Boone & Murray will absolutely spell him and, maybe cap his touches around 15-18 but they aren't taking his job (IMHO). Obviously a fumble could change that but it's not like Gordon has a long history of fumbles. His early season issues feel like an aberration, not a trend. Regardless of volume we need to remember Denver is the 31st scoring offense in the league (15ppg) and without PPR, and barring a significant turnaround on offense, Gordon's ceiling is quite limited.
Lazard definitely is Rodgers favorite target inside the 10, that alone makes him a decent gamble. Not sure what to think of the thumb issue but I'm not worried yet. The Jets are, apparently, not an easy out either so the Packers should be throw a bit throughout the game.
Coin toss between Lazard & Walker. For me:
Lamb>Walker>Lazard>Gordon
undercover
Footballguy
10 team - 1/2 PPR - Dynasty
Hurts against Cowboys or Kyler against Seahawks.
I have AJ Brown and he will start and I have started Hurts every game....but this week currently starting Kyler since point total is higher and going against a weaker D.
Hurts against Cowboys or Kyler against Seahawks.
I have AJ Brown and he will start and I have started Hurts every game....but this week currently starting Kyler since point total is higher and going against a weaker D.
Chaka
Footballguy
I can offer almost zero insight into that TE question. I see two random number generators. They have virtually identical stats but the Ravens receiving defense is the worst in the league so
Bellinger>Kmet
Seattle could just as easily give Travis Homer touches and not DeeJay Dallas. Heck, it could be Tony Jones for all we know.
If Conner plays, against such a bad scoring defense, he may not put up much by way of yardage but he has a better opportunity at a short yardage TD than your other options IMO.
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm very much okay with Kyler over Hurts this week.
That Dallas defense is the real deal and the Seattle defense has been a scoring sieve.
Kyler>Hurts
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I have Hurts also but not Murray. Given that choice, as much as I like Hurts, I start Murray every time. Sometimes, the matchup just trumps everything.
Chaka
Footballguy
Agree about Deon Jackson, the problem is that you won't know about Jonathan Taylor until after B.Robinson plays and Hines status is important too. It's a tough decision because it makes Allgeier your fallback option against the best rushing defense in the league. The good news is Allgeier did get 13 opportunities against the Bucs, the bad news is zero targets.
We don't know near enough about Robinson's health, ability, usage etc to make any kind of strong prediction about tonight. The best thing he has going for him is he seemed to be the lead runner, by a good margin, last week and he is facing the worst run defense in the NFL. The Bears have faced some very strong running teams thus far, which skews their defensive stats but they still came up small. Unfortunately for B.Robinson he also had zero targets and likely won't be a big factor there with Gibson & McKissic on the team.
This decision feels like it has as much entertainment consideration as statistical consideration. With that in mind I think I go with the guy that's the most fun to root for:
Robinson>Jackson*>Allgeier
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Kyler hasn't had a good start to any of his 5 games - once Hopkins comes back, I'm hoping he'll put up an elite game or two. his fantasy numbers haven't been that bad but he and that offense are nowhere near peak form rn. it's so strange to me he doesn't take off more - his legs are his best weapon.
he's also been a pretty good deep ball passer the last few years, typically has 4-6 20+ chunk plays and a 40+ completion every other game. so far this year he's had 2 or 3 20+ every week with zero 40+. this could be the week he finally gets going. he hasn't been terrible, but he hasn't been Kyler so far.
fightingillini
Footballguy
I would go Samuel. Doubs may have more upside, but I like having that nice 10-12 pt floor.
Chaka
Footballguy
Tough call. Denver (3), SF (5) and the Jets (9) are all top 10 receiving defenses.
Pitts has been a huge disappointment, what can we possibly expect from him this week? He is, by far your most talented option but, even when healthy his targets have been highly disappointing. Atlanta throws the ball less than anyone but the Bears at just under 25 attempts/game. Even if the passing game funnels through two options it's still a very small pie. They are, surprisingly the #10 scoring team in the league (23.6ppg) so there is some hope.
Everett looked like a steady option until last week, but maybe that drop off was more due to the running game being so effective than anything else. Denver should be a bit more difficult to run on than Cleveland. Keenan Allen is apparently still very limited in practice, even if he plays I wonder how much he will really siphon off. Even so, Denver's offense has yet to put pressure on opposing teams to score so this could be a lower passing volume game for Herbert.
Doubs seems most locked into his volume, which amounts to about 6 targets per game. FFPC scoring makes his targets less valuable than Everett & Pitts though.
There are far too many factors to really make an informed decision. I think, with very little confidence:
Pitts>Doubs>Everett
4 pts per TD pass. Need one of these QB Streamers:
* M. Stafford vs CAR -- LAR offense obviously has issues all over. O line an issue. That said, this could be a get right game against a CAR team minus its coach.
or
* Jimmy G @ATL -- Good matchup. Indoors. Universally mentioned as a solid streamer this week. Don't see much ceiling, but the floor could be there. Couple notes on Jimmy: My opponent is playing Deebo and I need a QB streamer next week and SF faces KC which should force SF to the air more.
Which?
Thanks
* M. Stafford vs CAR -- LAR offense obviously has issues all over. O line an issue. That said, this could be a get right game against a CAR team minus its coach.
or
* Jimmy G @ATL -- Good matchup. Indoors. Universally mentioned as a solid streamer this week. Don't see much ceiling, but the floor could be there. Couple notes on Jimmy: My opponent is playing Deebo and I need a QB streamer next week and SF faces KC which should force SF to the air more.
Which?
Thanks
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
This is very tough and I note Chaka's response already. However, to go against the grain slightly, I have Everett and Pitts and honestly I think last week was a bit of an aberration for Everett, I think his target share, particularly with Allen out had been strong prior. So long as Allen remains out, I prefer Everett to Pitts. Pitts' role is 4-7 targets at most, and a couple of catches and he's coming off injury, still might be dinged. Until he shows something, can't trust him.
Doubs role had been growing before last week, not sure what happened there but Jets can put up points so favor him maybe very slightly...
I go Doubs->Everett-->Pitts
Chaka
Footballguy
I'm not sure firing the coach is going to have a net negative impact, at least not initially. I think having PJ Walker as the Panthers QB will be a bigger issue, although he probably can't be much worse than Mayfield. The Panthers were a poor scoring team before losing Mayfield, maybe they get a psychological bump but maybe the Rams hold them to 10 and run more than expected. However the Rams offensive line is terrible so grinding out games is unlikely. Picking Stafford is definitely a mixed bag and there is really know way to know what you are going to get, although this season he has four games with zero or one TD pass. He's a gut call.
Garappolo OTOH is kind of a Steady-Eddie. You're going to get about 230 and a TD pretty regularly. Not inspiring for sure but reliable. Also Stafford did have one multi-TD game when he put up three against these Falcons. The Falcons can score a little bit so maybe they keep it close enough to give Jimmy an opportunity for two TD passes.
It's a tough call. I would like to look at it as a ceiling vs floor call but Stafford hasn't shown much ceiling yet this season.
Garoppolo>Stafford
Chaka
Footballguy
Wilson all day every day. What's a guy gotta do to get some respect around here?
Wilson>Mostert
Second one is definitely tougher.
Thomas was DNP yesterday so he may not even play. I think having Jameis back may help, if he does play but we need to pay attention today and tomorrow before really deciding.
I like Etienne and maybe he builds on last game, but after two bad losses I am officially worried about the Jaguars. Maybe this is a get-right game for the Jags but I think Indy has a good defense and absolutely remembers week 2.
Dobbins is really still a mystery but, if anyone on this list has a shot at falling in for a TD from the one it's Dobbins.
Dobbins>Etienne>Thomas
fightingillini
Footballguy
This one is tough. Stafford is playing terrible and the Rams OL is in shambles. The issue I have with Jimmy G is that SF could just run the ball right down ATL's throat all game long and Jimmy G doesn't have to throw much.
I still think Jimmy G can get you 225/2. Go with Jimmy G.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Wilson easy choice or in 1st league. Good matchup and playing well.
2nd one......I lean Dobbins
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
Honestly, I think the only Commadores I even remotely like ATM are Samuels & B.Robinson and Robinson is more because the Bears run defense has been terrible and he's a great story to root for.
Mostert>McLauren
Sorry, yes, PPR.
TripleThreat
Footballguy
Curtis Samuel or Brian Robinson at flex tonight? half point ppr
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
I lean Robinson slightly, Chicago are not great against the run and don't score much themselves which tends to equal opportunity for Robinson as the game should remain relatively close and Thursday games tend to be duds/run-fests anyway. Samuel has fallen flat 3 weeks straight as Wentz has struggled a bit lately.
Chaka
Footballguy
Very difficult call. With any PPR I like Robinson a little less because he may not see a target with Gibson & McKissic around. However the Bears defense has been terrible against the run and Robinson was named the starter this week.
Samuel definitely seems like a safe floor guy but, IMO he may have trouble reaching his ceiling if things (i.e. Wentz) don't break well tonight.
It's a very difficult call but if you want to be aggressive, and I think I would be in this situation:
B.Robinson>Samuel
Bozeman Bruiser
Footballguy
Another data point that favors Robinson, Wentz strained his bicep on Sunday and may affect passing accuracy leading to more rushing attempts for Robinson
Report: Carson Wentz dealing with biceps tendon strain - ProFootballTalk
Commanders quarterback Carson Wentz was listed as a limited participant in practice due to a right shoulder injury on Monday and Tuesday, but he avoided an injury designation for Thursday night’s game against the Bears.That doesn’t mean Wentz is totally healthy, however. Tom Pelissero of NFL...
(I'm still rolling with Samuel due to multiple players on bye and no better options)
Absolutely Nothing
Footballguy
Struggling hard with my RB choice this week... And with the season in general. Have to pick two of Dobbins, J. Robinson, Zeke Elliot, Michael Carter, and Brian Robinson.
Tentatively moving with Dobbins and Robinson, but I'm almost certainly going to go with Zeke above Robinson before game time, and hopefully make a move for a RB in a trade.
Tentatively moving with Dobbins and Robinson, but I'm almost certainly going to go with Zeke above Robinson before game time, and hopefully make a move for a RB in a trade.
Chaka
Footballguy
PPR?
Brian Robinson is an interesting choice but you have enough other options to afford to wait and see what happens in his first start tonight. ETA: Maybe you don't have better options. The Bears have a terrible defense and, aside from Zeke we don't really know if any of your options are really locked into any sort of volume.
Michael Carter has, unfortunately, been trending in the wrong direction but he's still good for 12 opportunities any given week. But that's not good enough to roll the dice on him this week.
Zeke is your volume play. He's locked in to 15-18 opportunities but has a less than ideal matchup.
I liked J. Robinson a lot more before the last two games because the Jags look really bad suddenly. They have a tough matchup in Indy this week and Etienne is trending up (at least a little bit).
Still no idea what to really think about Dobbins. Maybe 17 opportunities or maybe 8, IDK. Ravens do put up a bunch of points and Dobbins may be a good goal line option.
I could see flipping a coin between Dobbins & the Robinsons but this is how I would probably roll:
Zeke>B.Robinson>Dobbins>J.Robinson>M.Carter
Chaka
Footballguy
thank you, great insights....much appreciated
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Lazard
Chaka
Footballguy
After last week it's difficult to keep recommending Dillon. First he wasn't doing much with his touches, now he isn't even getting touches? Do we stop banking on a correction at this point? Probably, for a bit at least.
Lazard seems like your highest % play for a possible TD. He is Rodgers's guy inside the 10 and he's probably good for 7-8 targets overall. He can make something happen with that volume.
If you're going to bank on a GB WR, it should probably be Lazard. Doubs seems pretty set in his role, which is good but Lazard seems like the closest thing they have to a #1 we.
Coming off injury and low volume, big play reliant. He's an option if you need someone who, in the most perfect of all worlds, can break off two 40+ yard TDs in one game. But it's hard to count on those big play TDs and, inside the 10 it's the Mark Andrews show (outside the 10 too).
Lazard>Dillon>Doubs>Bateman
Chaka
Footballguy
1) Can you start Dillon twice? He really is your only option for one slot. For the other it is simply a blind dart throw. I cannot make an honest, logical argument for why one of the other three has any kind of advantage, or interesting beneficial metric. Marvin probably has the best shot at hitting his average opportunities so, for that reason alone I say. He is also your guy with probably the highest ceiling (historically at least). Maybe KJ because the Miami defense has been not good against the pass so far this season, but he seems the least locked into his target share.
Dillon>>Marvin>KJ>Claypool
Aiyuk has the most ability and I don't think it's really close. Slayton is intriguing because Baltimore is one of the worst receiving defense in the league. But the Giants have made it to 4-1 throwing the ball 26 times/game (29th overall). If Golladay & Toney are still out, even if Wa'ndale returns Slayton could still see 7 or so targets. But I think Aiyuk could easily see the same and I like him to do more with those targets. I said this earlier in this thread but Marvin has cost people tens of thousands of collective magic football games over the years trying to capture his blow-up performances. If you want to swing for the fences he's your guy, otherwise he's just not an option for me.
Aiyuk>Slayton>Marvin
Chaka
Footballguy
Rondale is probably the most locked into his targets and may have the safest floor. He also has a great matchup against the worst defense playing this week. It's a prime opportunity. But, he probably isn't a long TD guy.
BUT...Pickens, man...Pickens. He looks soooo legit. The biggest concern I have for him is I don't expect the Steelers to throw the ball 52 times in a game again this season. He was still third in target share last week with 8. So what happens when they only throw the ball 40 times this week? Now, TB is a good team and getting healthier. They, could, possibly put similar pressure on the Steelers offense to play keep up that the Bills did last week. But I hate banking on game script because it so rarely pays off.
I take it McKenzie is an option for you because of the matchup? Sure, maybe but again, I hate banking on game scripts. I think your other two options are better. And McKenzie is the opposite of a big play threat.
For me it's very close between Moore & Pickens so you should go with your gut there. For me:
Moore>Pickens>McKenzie
nirad3
Footballguy
0.5 PPR
I need to grab and start either Zay Jones or Marvin Jones this week. Zay has been dinged, and with him hobbled last week, Marvin went off.
Sounds like Zay is practicing on a limited basis, which makes me lean towards Marvin, but I see a ton of sites ranking Zay ahead of Marvin.
Thoughts?
Edit - I could also start Donovan Peoples-Jones. Or pick up / play MVS.
ACK!
I need to grab and start either Zay Jones or Marvin Jones this week. Zay has been dinged, and with him hobbled last week, Marvin went off.
Sounds like Zay is practicing on a limited basis, which makes me lean towards Marvin, but I see a ton of sites ranking Zay ahead of Marvin.
Thoughts?
Edit - I could also start Donovan Peoples-Jones. Or pick up / play MVS.
ACK!
Last edited:
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
TE question - I see Everett's donut last week as an aberration, rather than a trend. However, it did give me pause for thought and his production tends to depend on Allen being out. Would you roll him out again or look to the FA pool? I could pick up Dissly or Hurts instead?
Defense question.
* GB vs NYJ -- They failed me last week as a NYG's team with zero weapons other than Barkley managed to move the ball. This D is universally ranked top 5...which is surprising. NYJs aren't your father's NYJs. They have weapons. Could see them moving the ball. And, the data says that teams coming back from London don't do so well the next week.
or
* BALT vs NYG -- The data says the BALT D isn't so hot, but I think that may be a bit deceptive. Looked pretty solid keeping a BUF offense off track a bit. Think Barkley will have a tougher time running on this D and it looks like D. Jones is minus weapons again this week.
Which?
Thanks
* GB vs NYJ -- They failed me last week as a NYG's team with zero weapons other than Barkley managed to move the ball. This D is universally ranked top 5...which is surprising. NYJs aren't your father's NYJs. They have weapons. Could see them moving the ball. And, the data says that teams coming back from London don't do so well the next week.
or
* BALT vs NYG -- The data says the BALT D isn't so hot, but I think that may be a bit deceptive. Looked pretty solid keeping a BUF offense off track a bit. Think Barkley will have a tougher time running on this D and it looks like D. Jones is minus weapons again this week.
Which?
Thanks
Chaka
Footballguy
Lockett just showed up on the injury report with a hamstring so we should monitor that today.
I get it with Hunt but, it's tough to complain about 14 opportunities for 67 & a TD from a flex play. He will probably get another 14 this week and most weeks going forward. You shouldn't ignore that. He also has a very good offensive line, unlike Najee Harris. New England is also a slightly better matchup than Tampa Bay. Indianapolis, OTOH, looks like one of the top rush defenses in the league.
The argument for Harris is based upon volume but even that is a little down this year and he has been rather ineffective with the volume he has received. Kareem has 11 fewer opportunities but has 44 more yards and 1 more TD (1 more reception too).
Playing McKenzie is all about TDs, he has one in 3 of 4 games and this game shapes up to be high scoring. But he is also a 5 target guy and Allen distributes the ball all over the place. But they score in bunches so McKenzie seems like a solid floor option. Not sure about his ceiling.
Etienne seems like a hold ATM. I loved what I saw last week and @BobbyLayne made a good case for him seeing increased opportunity. But the team has regressed badly over the past two games and this shapes up to be a tough matchup. I don't like predicting motivation, just like I don't like predicting game script but you still have to wonder how much the thumping the Colts took in week two is sticking with them.
You could make an argument for any of these guys but I think the guys with the most opportunity &/or TD likelihood looks like:
Hunt>McKenzie>Najee>Lockett>Etienne
===================================
Another one where you could make an argument for any of these guys, except DJ Moore. All panthers not named McCaffrey are on hiatus until further notice.
Zeke is the most locked into his workload, even if he isn't a huge factor in the passing game. Tough matchup but, the Cowboys play great defense too and they may give Zeke some TD opportunities. Still, I am not sure this is his best opportunity to be relevant. This feels like a speed and quickness game for the Cowboys, not a line up and knock them off the ball kind of game. But that is highly speculative opinion.
Can't really trust Dillon anymore, particularly with better options.
Godwin has 16 targets over the last two games. He doesn't seem to be fully recovered from his injury but he does seem quite relevant in the offense and is probably going to improve weekly. It's a great matchup but there is a concern this turns into another Fournette game, although I doubt he sees another 11 target game again in his career.
It's really a tossup between Godwin, Hunt & Zeke for me.
Godwin>Hunt>Zeke>>Dillon>>>>>DJ
====================================
By process of elimination of Dillon until we actually see that 1) his opportunity rebounds from last week and 2) him do something with any an all opportunities he gets.
London is a good player and the Niners look to be down at least two, and maybe three of their DL in Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw and possibly Nick Bosa. The Falcons can score and the passing game goes through limited options.
Russel Wilson can't really cook anymore but he can burn #### and Sutton is his goto recipe by a good margin.
Sutton>London>Dillon
Chaka
Footballguy
Realistically there is no way to logic through those options. Marvin is a fine choice when picking between three high ceiling/ low floor guys like that.
IMO MVS may be the most interesting only in the hope we see a repeat of the playoffs.
Chaka
Footballguy
DK all day IMO
Tons of volume, tons of talent, tons of upside, tons of...safe floor. He's your best player and Lockett has some kind of hamstring injury.
DK>>the others
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