Week 1 Pickem (1 Viewer)

[Gamma1210]

I have pools with weekly pickems both S/U and with a spread. I'm sure others do as well. Any thoughts or predictions are welcome. Worst case I can consolidate all my thoughts to one place.

I'll add my thoughts to the other games later this week.

Cowboys

GIANTS -3.5

Cowboys WRs could be rusty out of the gate and the Giants line is going to give Romo problems. Giants S/U and cover.

Colts

BEARS -9.5

Bears offense starts out slow and Luck shows he belongs in the NFL. Bears win but the Colts cover.

Eagles -8.5

BROWNS

I think the Eagles are still overrated, but the Browns are bad. Eagles by 14+

Bills

JETS -3.5

Lots of discussion below, I think the Jets win a close one here, not sure about the cover yet. The Jets haven't proven they can score TDs yet.

Redskins

SAINTS -9.5

RGIII will look good but make a few mistakes and the Saints are out to prove something. I don't like laying this many points but I think the Saints cover.

Patriots -6.5

TITANS

I see this line moving down on some sites, unfortunately my lines don't move for this pool. Gut says Pats by a TD+ but no real reason for it.

Jaguars

VIKINGS -4.5

Dolphins

TEXANS -10.5

Rams

LIONS -8.5

Falcons -2.5

CHIEFS

49ers

PACKERS -5.5

Panthers -2.5

BUCCANEERS

Seahawks -2.5

CARDINALS

Steelers

BRONCOS -1.5

Bengals

RAVENS -5.5

Chargers -1.5

RAIDERS

 

[DerekR]

Bills +3.5 and Falcons -2.5 look pretty good

 

[Funkley]

I think the safest play here is the Lions.

 

[Steel Dillo]

alert, but the Steelers getting 1.5 seems like a good bet to me.

 

[Run It Up]

The farm on the Bills over the Jets...

1/2 farm on the Falcons.

 

[munygon2]

Texans should win big.

 

[johnadams]

Texans should win big.

Makes me wish we could get one more week of Hard Knocks.

 

[Itchy Amos]

The farm on the Bills over the Jets...

1/2 farm on the Falcons.

Maybe you're right, but the Jets have beaten Buffalo in 5 straight games (and 6 of 7) and they handled them last year 27-11 in week 9. At the time, Jackson was still healthy, the offense was averaging 31 per game and the Bills were 5-2 and playing very well. The Jets still know how to play defense. At the start of last year, the Jets werent exactly an offensive power. Not that much has changed. I think that reports of the Jets' demise are a little bit overstated.

 

[Blackjacks]

I really don't get why Seattle is favored at Arizona week 1 but I will admit people in Vegas are a lot smarter than I am

 

[tombonneau]

alert, but the Steelers getting 1.5 seems like a good bet to me.

Was gonna say Broncos laying chalk vs one of the top 4 teams in the AFC is a joke. Talk about paying Manning Tax. I don't even think this is competitive.

 

[Run It Up]

The farm on the Bills over the Jets...

1/2 farm on the Falcons.

Maybe you're right, but the Jets have beaten Buffalo in 5 straight games (and 6 of 7) and they handled them last year 27-11 in week 9. At the time, Jackson was still healthy, the offense was averaging 31 per game and the Bills were 5-2 and playing very well. The Jets still know how to play defense. At the start of last year, the Jets werent exactly an offensive power. Not that much has changed. I think that reports of the Jets' demise are a little bit overstated.

Of course they can still play defense, but the only player im even remotely worried about is Revis, and Stevie has performed better than good against him in their 4 meetings. That game where FJax was health, he rushed for 80+ yards and 3 Recs for 40 more.Its a combination of being pretty certain the Bills take a big step forward this year, and the fact that the Jets as a whole are gonna be a joke.

 

[Cookiemonster]

alert, but the Steelers getting 1.5 seems like a good bet to me.

Was gonna say Broncos laying chalk vs one of the top 4 teams in the AFC is a joke. Talk about paying Manning Tax. I don't even think this is competitive.

Last time they played, Denver won with Tebow at QB.

 

[Run It Up]

alert, but the Steelers getting 1.5 seems like a good bet to me.

Was gonna say Broncos laying chalk vs one of the top 4 teams in the AFC is a joke. Talk about paying Manning Tax. I don't even think this is competitive.

Last time they played, Denver won with Tebow at QB.

I think we can all agree, that if there is a god that game was evidence that miracles really do happen. Divine intervention, no offense Denver fans. Offense intended Tebow fans.

 

[Yolkix]

I think the bet is the Jet's over the Bills simply because it just too obvious to take the Bills in most peoples eyes. The Jet's are at home in their season opener and obviously kept everything vanilla in the pre season. And it's not like the Bills are an elite team or anything, and actually played very poorly the back half of last season.

 

[Tanner9919]

Jets -3.5 is the money game. after that lousy preseason showing, going against a supposedly improved div foe, the Jets should've been ,maybe,1.5 pt favorite.but 3.5? home team discount aside, something's wrong here.

take the Jets as they win by a TD or more.

 

[Gamma1210]

Added my thoughts on a few games. Jets are a tough call, I think they win a close one, but their offense has shown nothing to this point. Vanilla or not, they can't convert third downs or stretch the field.

 

[tombonneau]

alert, but the Steelers getting 1.5 seems like a good bet to me.

Was gonna say Broncos laying chalk vs one of the top 4 teams in the AFC is a joke. Talk about paying Manning Tax. I don't even think this is competitive.

Last time they played, Denver won with Tebow at QB.

And it's exactly that drive-by square analysis that was caused Vegas to issue such a joke of a line. "If they won with Tebow imagine what they'll do with Manning!"Taking Pitt to the bank.

 

[brianj74]

Giants -3.5. Giants D-line versus a porous Dallas-O-line and Dallas' wounded, make this an easy call.

Buffalo +3.5. Buffalo is no powerhouse but neither are the Jets, I'll take the better team on both sides of the ball.

Miami +10.5. Not an endorsement of Miami by any means, but not a fan of double digit spreads in week 1 regardless of the teams involved.

Indy +9.5. Me thinks the Bears start slow, and Luck keeps this within reach.

Philly -8.5. Philly is a bit overrated but still has enough weapons to beat this Browns team.

Atlanta -2.5. Granted they are playing on the road and in a tough stadium but if the Falcons can't win this by more than 2.5...

 

[belljr]

Anyone do a spread pool but with confidence points? Way harder than I thought it would be.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Houston, Saints, & Pats

 

[AB in DC]

I really don't get why Seattle is favored at Arizona week 1 but I will admit people in Vegas are a lot smarter than I am

IIRC home dogs do very well in the first month of the season.