***Week 15 Picks, Part 1*** (1 Viewer)

[Jeff Pasquino]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



After a bad Week 13, I stepped it up and fired back in a big way - if you like winning picks. After hitting with New England with my of the Week I rolled to 12-4-1 to up my record to 65-32-1 since Week 8, a winning percentage of 67%. Find that kind of record from the other "experts" out there. Somebody stop me from starting a 30 minute pseudo-infomercial on Saturday Morning Cable with a Pay Per Call Hotline Number (not that the thought has crossed my mind ), but you feel what I'm sayin'.

Don't believe me? Check it out:



Week 14: 12-4-1

Week 13: (6-9)

Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5

but still a winning day.

Week 11: 10-4

Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold of the Year)

Week 9: 9-6

Week 8: 7-3.





I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week.

The rest of the picks will come later this week, but for now here's my thought on tonight's game:



Let's go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Coming Soon.

**TWO STAR GAMES**



Denver Broncos (-1) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)

Denver visits Gary Kubiak's Texans in Reliant Stadium this Thursday's night with two teams who have been all over the map this season. Now with Selvin Young coming back to Houston and Brandon Marshall riding a huge performance from last week, you have to like Denver here. Sage Rosenfels is starting again for the Texans, and while he did well last week against Tampa Bay at home, Ron Dayne is unavailable and Houston has to rely on unproven Darius Walker and Joe GodBlessU as the second back. This game is a tough call, but I like Young and Marshall here and Cutler will be the better QB in this one. Andre Johnson and Owne Daniels are good targets (and fantasy options) this week, but once you add in the solid secondary for the Broncos and the better ground game (and options of both Young and Henry) you can see that Denver is the pick here.

More Coming Soon.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Coming Soon.

of the Week - Coming Soon.



***SUCKER BET GAME***



Coming Soon.

Enjoy.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

bump for the afternoon crowd.

 

[johnny_q]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

 

[johnny_q]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

No, I just meant I liked Houston and the Over (as separate ATS bets). I laid off the over after realizing that the big points in a couple of those Denver road games were flukey (2 Hester TD's, 2 Detroit defensive TD's). Ultimately, I looked at the way Denver lost to 3 BAD teams on the road and played one unit on Houston +3 (bought the 1/2 point up from 2.5).17-13 Houston to start the 4thQ...not feeling too confident. Sage looks like he could blow this one at any point in the game.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

No, I just meant I liked Houston and the Over (as separate ATS bets). I laid off the over after realizing that the big points in a couple of those Denver road games were flukey (2 Hester TD's, 2 Detroit defensive TD's). Ultimately, I looked at the way Denver lost to 3 BAD teams on the road and played one unit on Houston +3 (bought the 1/2 point up from 2.5).17-13 Houston to start the 4thQ...not feeling too confident. Sage looks like he could blow this one at any point in the game.

I probably should have steered away, but I thought I saw a good Selvin Young angle.Denver's defense is terrible, and Brandon Marshall can't help there.

 

[johnny_q]

I probably should have steered away, but I thought I saw a good Selvin Young angle.Denver's defense is terrible, and Brandon Marshall can't help there.

That was kind of a weird game. Neither team really tried to get their running game going. Once Houston made the adjustment and started to run 1st/pass 2nd, the downfield plays came open and Denver's D had no answer. I only watched the 1st half and couldn't believe Kubiak was putting the entire game on Sage's shoulders...glad he made the adjustment.Denver on the road = very ...They are now the proud owners of road losses to Indy (38-20), Detroit (44-7), Chicago (37-34), Oakland (34-20), & Houston (31-13). Next week @ San Diego could get ugly.On to Saturday's matchup...haven't done any analysis, but I'm thinking Cincy (-8) runs over SF. After 2 straight games in mud, I'm expecting the offense to take advantage of the good weather...and Shaun Hill. Cincy's D isn't great, but they have been opportunistic...While Hill may make some plays, I'd expect the Bungles to take advantage of his mistakes. Also, the 43.5 O/U seems a little low...any thoughts on Shaun Hill? Can he lead the 49ers to 17-20 points? If so, Cincy should be able to put 27 on the board.

 

[Judge Smails]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

No, I just meant I liked Houston and the Over (as separate ATS bets). I laid off the over after realizing that the big points in a couple of those Denver road games were flukey (2 Hester TD's, 2 Detroit defensive TD's). Ultimately, I looked at the way Denver lost to 3 BAD teams on the road and played one unit on Houston +3 (bought the 1/2 point up from 2.5).17-13 Houston to start the 4thQ...not feeling too confident. Sage looks like he could blow this one at any point in the game.

I probably should have steered away, but I thought I saw a good Selvin Young angle.Denver's defense is terrible, and Brandon Marshall can't help there.

You and me both. Shanny has got to let a back get in a rhythm. The shuffling just doesn't work.

 

[Gambler]

Jeff, feel free to drop in on the wagering threads in the FFA.

Your picks are solid gold.

 

[Keys Myaths]

Now with Selvin Young coming back to Houston and Brandon Marshall riding a huge performance from last week, you have to like Denver here.

I was actually going to post this yesterday, but got swamped at work, so please don't take this as hindsight.Using "motivation" and "hot streaks" as a reason to bet one team or another is pretty foolish, IMO. Even if they're small reasons that push you one way or another, probably best to stay away from them.

 

[Tanner9919]

Stone Cold Lock of the Season?!

Take the Jets, getting the pts, and PARLAY it with the UNDER..Bad weather is the greatest equalizer..I know Brady is 7-0 in snow games in NE , so he's due to have a rough time...I don't think the Jets will win outright, but its NOT going to be a Pats +24 pts final score

this game has Brady passing for 185 yards and 1 td, written all over it..

TJ will run wild against a below average NE rush defense that is slow to begin with, on a grass field in bad weather, and Mangini will play keep away from NE , winning the time of possession battle..

we all saw what happened to Brady against Baltimore on a cold wet night, even tho they won,they struggled to do so...

I think Ne will win, but not by a blowout score, not in bad weather, anyways..

 

[Liquid Tension]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

No, I just meant I liked Houston and the Over (as separate ATS bets). I laid off the over after realizing that the big points in a couple of those Denver road games were flukey (2 Hester TD's, 2 Detroit defensive TD's). Ultimately, I looked at the way Denver lost to 3 BAD teams on the road and played one unit on Houston +3 (bought the 1/2 point up from 2.5).17-13 Houston to start the 4thQ...not feeling too confident. Sage looks like he could blow this one at any point in the game.

Not really fair to post 3/4 through the game going back on what you originally said and then saying you didn't bet that way...kind of poor etiquette

 

[Liquid Tension]

Stone Cold Lock of the Season?! Take the Jets, getting the pts, and PARLAY it with the UNDER..Bad weather is the greatest equalizer..I know Brady is 7-0 in snow games in NE , so he's due to have a rough time...I don't think the Jets will win outright, but its NOT going to be a Pats +24 pts final scorethis game has Brady passing for 185 yards and 1 td, written all over it..TJ will run wild against a below average NE rush defense that is slow to begin with, on a grass field in bad weather, and Mangini will play keep away from NE , winning the time of possession battle..we all saw what happened to Brady against Baltimore on a cold wet night, even tho they won,they struggled to do so...I think Ne will win, but not by a blowout score, not in bad weather, anyways..

The line is 21 now

 

[supersecretid]

Stone Cold Lock of the Season?! Take the Jets, getting the pts, and PARLAY it with the UNDER..Bad weather is the greatest equalizer..I know Brady is 7-0 in snow games in NE , so he's due to have a rough time...I don't think the Jets will win outright, but its NOT going to be a Pats +24 pts final scorethis game has Brady passing for 185 yards and 1 td, written all over it..TJ will run wild against a below average NE rush defense that is slow to begin with, on a grass field in bad weather, and Mangini will play keep away from NE , winning the time of possession battle..we all saw what happened to Brady against Baltimore on a cold wet night, even tho they won,they struggled to do so...I think Ne will win, but not by a blowout score, not in bad weather, anyways..

LOL, who is going to book that parlay? No one afaik.

 

[Blackjacks]

First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.

Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.

Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.

My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.



After a bad Week 13, I stepped it up and fired back in a big way - if you like winning picks. After hitting with New England with my :IBTL: of the Week I rolled to 12-4-1 to up my record to 65-32-1 since Week 8, a winning percentage of 67%. Find that kind of record from the other "experts" out there. Somebody stop me from starting a 30 minute pseudo-infomercial on Saturday Morning Cable with a Pay Per Call Hotline Number (not that the thought has crossed my mind ), but you feel what I'm sayin'.

Don't believe me? Check it out:



Week 14: 12-4-1

Week 13: (6-9)

Week 12: Thanksgiving picks (5-0) followed by a mediocre Sunday, Part 2: 7-5

but still a winning day.

Week 11: 10-4

Week 10: 9-1 (including my Stone Cold :IBTL: of the Year)

Week 9: 9-6

Week 8: 7-3.





I've heard a few people wanting my Thursday selections ASAP, so I'll do just that if I like the game.... which I do this week.

The rest of the picks will come later this week, but for now here's my thought on tonight's game:



Let's go:



*ONE STAR GAMES*

Coming Soon.

**TWO STAR GAMES**



Denver Broncos (-1) at Houston Texans - (2 stars)

Denver visits Gary Kubiak's Texans in Reliant Stadium this Thursday's night with two teams who have been all over the map this season. Now with Selvin Young coming back to Houston and Brandon Marshall riding a huge performance from last week, you have to like Denver here. Sage Rosenfels is starting again for the Texans, and while he did well last week against Tampa Bay at home, Ron Dayne is unavailable and Houston has to rely on unproven Darius Walker and Joe GodBlessU as the second back. This game is a tough call, but I like Young and Marshall here and Cutler will be the better QB in this one. Andre Johnson and Owne Daniels are good targets (and fantasy options) this week, but once you add in the solid secondary for the Broncos and the better ground game (and options of both Young and Henry) you can see that Denver is the pick here.

More Coming Soon.

***THREE STAR GAMES***

Coming Soon.

:IBTL: of the Week - Coming Soon.



***SUCKER BET GAME***



Coming Soon.

Enjoy.

Still awaiting your picks Jeff.By the way great job this year. You 've helped me win a couple of $$$$'s that's for sure. This is the first NFL season I can remember actually walking away a winner in bets. I probaly have made about $5,000 so far. Not all of that is thanks to you but a couple here and there. Can't wait to see your picks for Sunday.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Still awaiting your picks Jeff.

By the way great job this year. You 've helped me win a couple of $$'s that's for sure. This is the first NFL season I can remember actually walking away a winner in bets. I probaly have made about $5,000 so far. Not all of that is thanks to you but a couple here and there. Can't wait to see your picks for Sunday.

Thanks, but...

Been up on Page 1 all day I think.... but here ya go.

Week 15 Picks - Part 2

 

[johnny_q]

Posted these in the game thread...I was originally thinking Denver, but they have been miserable on the road. I'm thinking about a small play on the over "just for fun".

Post #1

I think the Bronco's win the game...not sure if I'm confident enough in that to lay down any cash. The over looks to be the best bet of the night...Denver is 10-2 this year O/U, Houston is 2-0 this year O/U as a home dog. However, neither of these teams have had to deal with covered a line above 47. Cutler looks like he's rounding into form (didn't he do this at the end of last season too?) and the Houston offense has looked really good at times this year. Both defenses are susceptible to the big play (Dre Bly has that effect on teams). The "game predictor" has this one coming in at 50.5 total...the 2nd highest scoring game of the week (just behind the NO/AZ shootout).

Post #2

Denver did cover a 47 O/U vs. Detroit (44-7 loss).

Anyway, here are some more interesting stats for tonight's game...

Denver's last 4 road games: OAK 34-20 (L), CHI 37-34 (L), KC 27-11 (W), DET 44-7 (L)...All bad losses. Their only win came in KC's first game without LJ. Contrarily, here are Houston's last 4 home games: TB 28-14 (W), NO 23-10 (W), TEN 36-38 (L), MIA 22-19 (W)...You can argue that those are 3 2 quality wins to go with the crazy Tennessee game. Looks like Houston is the better play tonight.

Not sure how many units, but I'm going Houston + Over tonight. Thoughts?

I do look at the O/U's but I didn't like either side in this one. That's mostly because I can see it being 31-14 or 27-14 or 27-17.... just enough to frustrate you.The lack of a solid run game and also the strong Denver secondary has me thinking that the Texans may not crack 20 points.

If you're saying you are thinking of teasing that over with Denver I might like it, but I like the Denver for the win here.

No, I just meant I liked Houston and the Over (as separate ATS bets). I laid off the over after realizing that the big points in a couple of those Denver road games were flukey (2 Hester TD's, 2 Detroit defensive TD's). Ultimately, I looked at the way Denver lost to 3 BAD teams on the road and played one unit on Houston +3 (bought the 1/2 point up from 2.5).17-13 Houston to start the 4thQ...not feeling too confident. Sage looks like he could blow this one at any point in the game.

Not really fair to post 3/4 through the game going back on what you originally said and then saying you didn't bet that way...kind of poor etiquette

It wasn't like that at all. After posting here, I did some further research before I laid my bets (as everyone should do). Because of the whole NFLN debacle, I went out to watch the 1st half at Buffalo Wild Wings. When I got home, I just answered a question from Jeff and finished up a discussion.I see your point, but it wasn't meant to be like that...just wasn't home to post my final thoughts.