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Week 16 Start 'Em Sit 'Em (1 Viewer)

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
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Quarterback Starts

-Tony Romo versus New Orleans: Look, last week, that Saints defense made Josh Freeman look like the old Josh Freeman. Those who started Freeman are probably not like lucky enough to tell the tale. That doesn't mean that all of sudden, the Saints are a bad matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. Greg Schiano is overmatched as an NFL coach and has not done any favors for his inconsistent young quarterback. Tony Romo is not going to have the same problems. With Miles Austin back at 100%, Dez Bryant still being a force despite catching passes with what equates to a huge claw, Jason Witten threatening Tony Gonzalez's all time tight end catch record and Dwayne Harris looking like a real player, Romo has some serious weapons against this historically bad Saints defense. Not only that, but in 18 career games before the last three weeks, Demarco Murray had scored 3 touchdowns. In the last 3, he has scored 3. While at some level, that is regression, its also taking away part of Romo's fantasy value. The Cowboys historically throw the ball in the Redzone which has allowed Romo to rack up TD's. I expect regression to that mean this week. One week against Freeman and the Bucs notwithstanding, this is still a defense that has the ability to give up an NFL record number of yards in a season. I like Romo the most out of the tier 2 level options at quarterback this week in what will be a shootout with Drew Brees and the Saints with a playoff spot on the horizon.

-Robert Griffin III at Philadelphia: To say that the Philadelphia Eagles defense has quit is to put it generously. Last time Robert Griffin of the third played Philly, he threw 4 touchdowns and added 84 rushing yards. With Shanahan saying that the young quarterback practiced in full and is going to play unless he suffers a setback, RG3 has to be in the top 3 quarterbacks this week. The combination of the terrible Eagles defense, the possibility of the playoffs for the Redskins and RG3's rushing ability should ensure that if you survived him sitting out last week, Griffin absolutely must be in your starting lineup this week.

Quarterback Sits

-Andrew Luck at Kansas City: The Chiefs are bad. Really, really, really bad; but part of them being so terrible means that they cannot keep up with the other teams scoring. Luck has also performed to a sub-par level against opponents that he should theoretically dominant. In week 14, he put up a total clunker against the Tennessee Titans in several other games, once the Colts got the lead, Luck quit throwing the ball. The games where he has been a fantasy stud have come when the Colts fell behind. I imagine that Luck is going to be a safe bet for around 220 yards and a touchdown, which just isn't enough for your fantasy championships. I don't think that Luck is a terrible play, and his most likely outcome is probably around 13-15 points, but his upside is far too limited. Most likely, if you have Luck, he was a part of your quarterback by committee. This week, I would advise attempting to find someone else.

-Colin Kaepernick At Seattle: If Kap is on your roster and you are still alive, his terrific performance against New England last week is probably part of the reason why. However, after starring in this column as a start last week, he is a clear stay-away this week. Seattle just plays better at home. Their defense is incredibly stingy, even though Brandon Browner has began his 4-week suspension. Seattle has only allowed 184 rushing yards to quarterbacks all year and rushing yards have been what has kept Kaepernick's fantasy value afloat even when he struggled in the passing game. Despite being a proficient passer, the most yards he has accrued through the air has been 243 in his starting debut. If Kap doesn't get his normal 80 yards rushing and only accounts for one touchdown in this NFC West slugfest, he will murder your bottom line. Try and find your way around starting Kaepernick this week if you can help it.

Running Back Starts

-Vick Ballard at Kansas City: The Chiefs are still really, really bad. The Colt that will receive the most fantasy benefit from the dumpster fire burning in downtown Kansas City is one Mr. Vick Ballard. After the Colts open up a 21-0 by halfway through the 2nd quarter, it will be all Vick Ballard. With Mewelde Moore's fumble at the goalline last week and the Indianapolis media expecting former goalline back Delone Carter to miss this week with injury, Ballard creeps close to top 15 status. This will end up being his highest usage game of the year. I expect something around 25 touches with 2 or 3 cracks at the goalline. Ballard is not a sexy option but with back to back 100 combo yards game and the threat to score, he is someone who has the ability to be a solid anchor for your lineup this week. This is the type of player you set into your flex if you feel you are a clear favorite in your championship matchup.

-DuJuan Harris versus Tennesee: That's right, I'm calling my shot. I wrote a piece about Harris last week and now is your time to go out on a limb and hit the homerun. If you lost Fred Jackson or Ryan Matthews or have been relying on someone like Alex Green, who is suffering from a concussion and will probably miss this week, DuJuan Harris provides a pure upside move. For those who are proponents of the Matt Waldman school of thought, who want to win their championships in legendary fashion, the small power back from Troy University should have a chance to get the lions share in the Packers backfield. They have John Kuhn and the newly resigned Ryan Grant to spell Harris should he prove not up to the task, but I do not expect either one of them to carry the load in week 16. The Packers are huge favorites over Tennessee and Harris will find himself in a similar situation to Ballard if the game script goes according to plan. He could receive upwards of 20 touches if Rodgers throws a couple quick darts to get the Packer's up. Tennessee's 28th ranked fantasy rush defense simply won't be able to hold if they are battered all game. Harris carries plenty of usage risk, but if you find yourself in a difficult spot, you could do much worse than Harris.

Wide Receiver Starts

-Danny Amendola versus Tampa Bay: A possession wide receiver who already has one embarrassingly great game on the year against the worst pass defense in the NFL? Yeah, you need to start him. Bradford uses Amendola as his binky. When the first read isn't open, he finds Amendola. Oftentimes, it doesn't even have to go that far because Amendola is the first option. The Bucs ran D is actually very solid, so Stephen Jackson should be solidly bottled up, creating plenty of favoable 2nd and 8's and 3rd and 5's which are Amendola's bread and butter. As a WR2 or a flex play for your championship week, you can't really do much better than slotting in Amendola and watching him rack up an obscene amount of targets as Sam Bradford tries to convince St. Louis that he can be at least 25% of RG3.

-Pierre Garcon at Philadelphia: A no-brainer, top 10 play this week. There is a very small list of guys that you should have in your lineup over Pete Boy this week. There is not a secondary that has quit harder than Philadelphia has. As noted in the RG3 section, this team just wants to get their season over with. Garcon's explosive speed and sure hands have made him RG3's favorite target and in a game that Washington is a serious favorite, you can bet that Garcon will be heavily involved. In the Shanahan offense, the X receiver always puts up big stats and Garcon has been another receiver who has taken up that mantle. Nnmadi Asomugha will be absolutely helpless against the bigger, stronger and faster Garcon. I fully expect over 100 yards and multiple red zone targets. If you have the luxury of benching Garcon, consider your title all wrapped up.

Wide Receiver Sits

-Roddy White at Detroit: For whatever reason, there has been a serious home and away split in fantasy points for Roddy White and Julio Jones. At home, Roddy has dominated with 620 yards and 4 TD's while catching only 536 yards and 1 TD on the road. Starting there, it becomes apparent that White isn't a great start on the road against Detroit. First, Atlanta all but has the #1 wrapped up, so if they get to a 2 touchdown lead, I highly doubt they are throwing the ball. Additionally, Matthew Stafford has just been playing awful. They don't have the weapons to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack. If you are starting White this week, you are hoping that he scores an early touchdown because his opportunities are going to dwindle as the score gets more out of hand. Mike Smith is not Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll, he isn't going to be throwing the ball up 25 in the 3rd quarter. If White murdered you last week, it is possible that you have better options. If you are forced to start him, hope for an early touchdown or for whoever kidnapped the real Matt Stafford to show some mercy.

-Marques Colston at Dallas: Colston's target numbers since the Saints November 5th game against Philadelphia: 4,6,6,5,12,4 and 3 last week against Tampa. Even in games where Drew Brees hasn't struggled, Colston has. While Colston always has the potential to go off for a huge game, he's honestly much more likely to accrue a 5 for 65 game. Part of the curse of being in such a high powered offense is that there are so many weapons to steal targets. Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles all demand around 8 looks a game, and all of the Saints bit players will get their touches as well. Mike Wallace drew the Brandon Carr matchup last week and was shut out for a majority of the game until he got 80% of his production on one 60 yard catch. Colston doesn't have that same elite level speed that Wallace does and I believe Carr and the underrated Dallas defense will hold Colston in check for the week. Instead of being a solid wide receiver 1, Colston is more a of boom bust wide receiver #2.

Notes On The Rest: If you aren't starting Aaron Hernandez, I don' t know what is wrong with you...Greg Olsen is the best tier 2 tight end play this week against the pitiful Oakland defense...Have a short memory with Connor Barth this week and get him back in your lineup...With the Chiefs talking about subbing Ricky Stanzi in at quarterback, the Chiefs are going to be the gift that keeps giving to Colts DST owners...If you have to dig very deep in a 16 team league for a defense, the Panthers DST against Oakland is not a terrible start with the news that Terrelle Pryor may get a look.

 
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Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
You're going to sit Roddy White in the superbowl?
In a 3 wide receiver league if I had something like Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and Cecil Shorts, yeah he is going to the bench. Part of White's gimmick is that he has never missed a game and that means he plays as a decoy sometimes, and we know he is struggling with a knee right now. Also, what do you think the percent chances are Ryan gets over 33 pass attempts? I just think that this is one of the weeks where White's upside is 7 catches, 85 yards.
 

Clifford

Footballguy
So you would rather play a WR2 who has Chad Henne throwing him the ball? Seems like the kind of over-thinking that could cost you a championship but that's JMO.

 

Clifford

Footballguy
You could be right, just seems like all a team has to do is focus on taking him out of the game and they completely stop the Jags passing attack. Also, Henne hasn't thrown a TD in the past two weeks.

I guess if Roddy is GTD this makes sense but his situation is far better than Shorts.

 

Air Stich

Footballguy
So you would rather play a WR2 who has Chad Henne throwing him the ball? Seems like the kind of over-thinking that could cost you a championship but that's JMO.
I think it's as simple as checking Shorts' stats. When healthy, he had been a WR1.
I'm not sure Shorts III is the best example, as he's a no brainer start against NE. What about guys like Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, or Danny Amendola? Are they starts over Roddy White this week?
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
You could be right, just seems like all a team has to do is focus on taking him out of the game and they completely stop the Jags passing attack. Also, Henne hasn't thrown a TD in the past two weeks. I guess if Roddy is GTD this makes sense but his situation is far better than Shorts.
I think Jacksonville gets down big and Henne has no choice but to throw 50+ passes. In Shorts' last 5 healthy games he has posted 10, 13, 16, 14 and 16. Those are WR1 numbers.
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
So you would rather play a WR2 who has Chad Henne throwing him the ball? Seems like the kind of over-thinking that could cost you a championship but that's JMO.
I think it's as simple as checking Shorts' stats. When healthy, he had been a WR1.
I'm not sure Shorts III is the best example, as he's a no brainer start against NE. What about guys like Reggie Wayne, Brandon Lloyd, or Danny Amendola? Are they starts over Roddy White this week?
Not Lloyd, but definitely the other 2. Part of the problem of writing something like this is that it doesn't take everyone's roster into account. The general point is that White doesn't have a great outlook for week 16 and if you do start him, don't expect much.
 

BustedKnuckles

Footballguy
You could be right, just seems like all a team has to do is focus on taking him out of the game and they completely stop the Jags passing attack. Also, Henne hasn't thrown a TD in the past two weeks. I guess if Roddy is GTD this makes sense but his situation is far better than Shorts.
is he still hurt? He didnt do anyone any favors last week,thank god i own jones
 

Air Stich

Footballguy
You could be right, just seems like all a team has to do is focus on taking him out of the game and they completely stop the Jags passing attack. Also, Henne hasn't thrown a TD in the past two weeks. I guess if Roddy is GTD this makes sense but his situation is far better than Shorts.
Shorts was frequently targeted in the red zone last week and barely missed a TD because he couldn't keep both feet in bounds in the endzone.Any player can underperform any week, but there haven't been many WRs as consistent as Shorts. Seven of his last eight games played have been over 10 points in non PPR.
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
You could be right, just seems like all a team has to do is focus on taking him out of the game and they completely stop the Jags passing attack. Also, Henne hasn't thrown a TD in the past two weeks. I guess if Roddy is GTD this makes sense but his situation is far better than Shorts.
is he still hurt? He didnt do anyone any favors last week,thank god i own jones
Still listed as questionable and was limited in practice yesterday.
 

RamMan

Footballguy
Interesting take on Colston. He has not delivered lately. I've currently got him plugged in as my WR3 (with Calvin and Marshall) but considering Lloyd. Although Lloyd has the same problem - too many receiving options on the offense.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Interesting take on Colston. He has not delivered lately. I've currently got him plugged in as my WR3 (with Calvin and Marshall) but considering Lloyd. Although Lloyd has the same problem - too many receiving options on the offense.
I think with Gronk and Edelman out, Colston and Lloyd are around the same tier. If you think Colston can get 10-15 targets, than by all means, put him in your lineup. I think that the matchup with Carr is actually a minus matchup for Colston, so if you have comparable options with similar upside, probably roll those out.
 

RamMan

Footballguy
Interesting take on Colston. He has not delivered lately. I've currently got him plugged in as my WR3 (with Calvin and Marshall) but considering Lloyd. Although Lloyd has the same problem - too many receiving options on the offense.
I think with Gronk and Edelman out, Colston and Lloyd are around the same tier. If you think Colston can get 10-15 targets, than by all means, put him in your lineup. I think that the matchup with Carr is actually a minus matchup for Colston, so if you have comparable options with similar upside, probably roll those out.
Good points to consider. If Gronk is definitely out I may just plug Lloyd in over Colston. My game is going to be very close....a few points here and there will decide it.
 

Dragon1952

Footballguy
Roddy is definitely a risky start. He is not 100% and 2 of the past 3 weeks he's scored 3 and 3.6 pts. which ain't going to win you many championships. I would definitely start Shorts over him. Since Week 7 Shorts has been equal to Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson and better than AJ Green and Wes Welker (in PPR).

 

DerekR

Footballguy
I agree with the Amendola start but my only place for him is flex and that's where I have McFadden. Kinda tough call for no ppr

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Interesting take on Colston. He has not delivered lately. I've currently got him plugged in as my WR3 (with Calvin and Marshall) but considering Lloyd. Although Lloyd has the same problem - too many receiving options on the offense.
I think with Gronk and Edelman out, Colston and Lloyd are around the same tier. If you think Colston can get 10-15 targets, than by all means, put him in your lineup. I think that the matchup with Carr is actually a minus matchup for Colston, so if you have comparable options with similar upside, probably roll those out.
Good points to consider. If Gronk is definitely out I may just plug Lloyd in over Colston. My game is going to be very close....a few points here and there will decide it.
Well, if Belicheck decides to put up a 50-burger on Jacksonville because he is pissed about losing to the niners, Lloyd will probably get in on that party.
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
I agree with the Amendola start but my only place for him is flex and that's where I have McFadden. Kinda tough call for no ppr
I think you to go with McFadden against Carolina's run D. As much as I like Amendola this week, you always take the guaranteed touches of a talented starting RB.
 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Roddy is definitely a risky start. He is not 100% and 2 of the past 3 weeks he's scored 3 and 3.6 pts. which ain't going to win you many championships. I would definitely start Shorts over him. Since Week 7 Shorts has been equal to Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Vincent Jackson and better than AJ Green and Wes Welker (in PPR).
My point exactly.
 

Sweet Feet

Footballguy
Im nervous now.. Im starting Romo over Luck and Kaepernick
Obviously my ethos is slightly damaged but that is still what I would do. That matchup is so cushy and all of his weapons are healthy. Dez has learned how to catch with the claw he has.
Ha, Im playing but yes, the matchup looks juicy with the potential to be high scoring. Im not seeing a lot of points in the Indy@KC game or SF@Seattle (obvious comment).Im also starting Murray over BJGE. If Dallas cant put up 30 on the Saints I'll be very disappointed.
 

jwp

Footballguy
Got scared about Roddy after last week and reading this. My team is good enough to win with him blowing up on the bench I think. Played Amendola in his spot.

 

solorca

Footballguy
Another great start to the week. Sorry man, but you are struggling at this sit/start thing.

Given your track record, I'm scared to play Pierre garçon now.

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Another great start to the week. Sorry man, but you are struggling at this sit/start thing. Given your track record, I'm scared to play Pierre garçon now.
It is what it is. Obviously, since I'm not doing comprehensive rankings (not enough time with my university course load) the opinions I put out there are of a small sample size. That being said...yeah, I'm pretty disappointed with my calls.
 

cracKer

Shawn Culcasi
Props for putting your stuff out there for everyone to read. Just because your predictions are put into paragraph/legible form means you will take more heat when things go bad

 

Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Props for putting your stuff out there for everyone to read. Just because your predictions are put into paragraph/legible form means you will take more heat when things go bad
Yep, that's become quite apparent! I'm not too discouraged, but it does suck to be very wrong, very publicly.
 

Sweet Feet

Footballguy
Yep, that's become quite apparent! I'm not too discouraged, but it does suck to be very wrong, very publicly.
happens.. if anything.. you can only go up from here bro. I at the least like the fact you try and have the balls to put it out :thumbup: ever think of doing the game by game break down?
 
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Lavachebeadsman

Footballguy
Yep, that's become quite apparent! I'm not too discouraged, but it does suck to be very wrong, very publicly.
happens.. if anything.. you can only go up from here bro. I at the least like the fact you try and have the balls to put it out :thumbup: ever think of doing the game by game break down?
Of course. I think that approach is more simplistic and in general, causes less research to be done. Maybe that's what I'll do next week, give it a shot.
 

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