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Quarterback Starts
-Tony Romo versus New Orleans: Look, last week, that Saints defense made Josh Freeman look like the old Josh Freeman. Those who started Freeman are probably not like lucky enough to tell the tale. That doesn't mean that all of sudden, the Saints are a bad matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. Greg Schiano is overmatched as an NFL coach and has not done any favors for his inconsistent young quarterback. Tony Romo is not going to have the same problems. With Miles Austin back at 100%, Dez Bryant still being a force despite catching passes with what equates to a huge claw, Jason Witten threatening Tony Gonzalez's all time tight end catch record and Dwayne Harris looking like a real player, Romo has some serious weapons against this historically bad Saints defense. Not only that, but in 18 career games before the last three weeks, Demarco Murray had scored 3 touchdowns. In the last 3, he has scored 3. While at some level, that is regression, its also taking away part of Romo's fantasy value. The Cowboys historically throw the ball in the Redzone which has allowed Romo to rack up TD's. I expect regression to that mean this week. One week against Freeman and the Bucs notwithstanding, this is still a defense that has the ability to give up an NFL record number of yards in a season. I like Romo the most out of the tier 2 level options at quarterback this week in what will be a shootout with Drew Brees and the Saints with a playoff spot on the horizon.
-Robert Griffin III at Philadelphia: To say that the Philadelphia Eagles defense has quit is to put it generously. Last time Robert Griffin of the third played Philly, he threw 4 touchdowns and added 84 rushing yards. With Shanahan saying that the young quarterback practiced in full and is going to play unless he suffers a setback, RG3 has to be in the top 3 quarterbacks this week. The combination of the terrible Eagles defense, the possibility of the playoffs for the Redskins and RG3's rushing ability should ensure that if you survived him sitting out last week, Griffin absolutely must be in your starting lineup this week.
Quarterback Sits
-Andrew Luck at Kansas City: The Chiefs are bad. Really, really, really bad; but part of them being so terrible means that they cannot keep up with the other teams scoring. Luck has also performed to a sub-par level against opponents that he should theoretically dominant. In week 14, he put up a total clunker against the Tennessee Titans in several other games, once the Colts got the lead, Luck quit throwing the ball. The games where he has been a fantasy stud have come when the Colts fell behind. I imagine that Luck is going to be a safe bet for around 220 yards and a touchdown, which just isn't enough for your fantasy championships. I don't think that Luck is a terrible play, and his most likely outcome is probably around 13-15 points, but his upside is far too limited. Most likely, if you have Luck, he was a part of your quarterback by committee. This week, I would advise attempting to find someone else.
-Colin Kaepernick At Seattle: If Kap is on your roster and you are still alive, his terrific performance against New England last week is probably part of the reason why. However, after starring in this column as a start last week, he is a clear stay-away this week. Seattle just plays better at home. Their defense is incredibly stingy, even though Brandon Browner has began his 4-week suspension. Seattle has only allowed 184 rushing yards to quarterbacks all year and rushing yards have been what has kept Kaepernick's fantasy value afloat even when he struggled in the passing game. Despite being a proficient passer, the most yards he has accrued through the air has been 243 in his starting debut. If Kap doesn't get his normal 80 yards rushing and only accounts for one touchdown in this NFC West slugfest, he will murder your bottom line. Try and find your way around starting Kaepernick this week if you can help it.
Running Back Starts
-Vick Ballard at Kansas City: The Chiefs are still really, really bad. The Colt that will receive the most fantasy benefit from the dumpster fire burning in downtown Kansas City is one Mr. Vick Ballard. After the Colts open up a 21-0 by halfway through the 2nd quarter, it will be all Vick Ballard. With Mewelde Moore's fumble at the goalline last week and the Indianapolis media expecting former goalline back Delone Carter to miss this week with injury, Ballard creeps close to top 15 status. This will end up being his highest usage game of the year. I expect something around 25 touches with 2 or 3 cracks at the goalline. Ballard is not a sexy option but with back to back 100 combo yards game and the threat to score, he is someone who has the ability to be a solid anchor for your lineup this week. This is the type of player you set into your flex if you feel you are a clear favorite in your championship matchup.
-DuJuan Harris versus Tennesee: That's right, I'm calling my shot. I wrote a piece about Harris last week and now is your time to go out on a limb and hit the homerun. If you lost Fred Jackson or Ryan Matthews or have been relying on someone like Alex Green, who is suffering from a concussion and will probably miss this week, DuJuan Harris provides a pure upside move. For those who are proponents of the Matt Waldman school of thought, who want to win their championships in legendary fashion, the small power back from Troy University should have a chance to get the lions share in the Packers backfield. They have John Kuhn and the newly resigned Ryan Grant to spell Harris should he prove not up to the task, but I do not expect either one of them to carry the load in week 16. The Packers are huge favorites over Tennessee and Harris will find himself in a similar situation to Ballard if the game script goes according to plan. He could receive upwards of 20 touches if Rodgers throws a couple quick darts to get the Packer's up. Tennessee's 28th ranked fantasy rush defense simply won't be able to hold if they are battered all game. Harris carries plenty of usage risk, but if you find yourself in a difficult spot, you could do much worse than Harris.
Wide Receiver Starts
-Danny Amendola versus Tampa Bay: A possession wide receiver who already has one embarrassingly great game on the year against the worst pass defense in the NFL? Yeah, you need to start him. Bradford uses Amendola as his binky. When the first read isn't open, he finds Amendola. Oftentimes, it doesn't even have to go that far because Amendola is the first option. The Bucs ran D is actually very solid, so Stephen Jackson should be solidly bottled up, creating plenty of favoable 2nd and 8's and 3rd and 5's which are Amendola's bread and butter. As a WR2 or a flex play for your championship week, you can't really do much better than slotting in Amendola and watching him rack up an obscene amount of targets as Sam Bradford tries to convince St. Louis that he can be at least 25% of RG3.
-Pierre Garcon at Philadelphia: A no-brainer, top 10 play this week. There is a very small list of guys that you should have in your lineup over Pete Boy this week. There is not a secondary that has quit harder than Philadelphia has. As noted in the RG3 section, this team just wants to get their season over with. Garcon's explosive speed and sure hands have made him RG3's favorite target and in a game that Washington is a serious favorite, you can bet that Garcon will be heavily involved. In the Shanahan offense, the X receiver always puts up big stats and Garcon has been another receiver who has taken up that mantle. Nnmadi Asomugha will be absolutely helpless against the bigger, stronger and faster Garcon. I fully expect over 100 yards and multiple red zone targets. If you have the luxury of benching Garcon, consider your title all wrapped up.
Wide Receiver Sits
-Roddy White at Detroit: For whatever reason, there has been a serious home and away split in fantasy points for Roddy White and Julio Jones. At home, Roddy has dominated with 620 yards and 4 TD's while catching only 536 yards and 1 TD on the road. Starting there, it becomes apparent that White isn't a great start on the road against Detroit. First, Atlanta all but has the #1 wrapped up, so if they get to a 2 touchdown lead, I highly doubt they are throwing the ball. Additionally, Matthew Stafford has just been playing awful. They don't have the weapons to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack. If you are starting White this week, you are hoping that he scores an early touchdown because his opportunities are going to dwindle as the score gets more out of hand. Mike Smith is not Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll, he isn't going to be throwing the ball up 25 in the 3rd quarter. If White murdered you last week, it is possible that you have better options. If you are forced to start him, hope for an early touchdown or for whoever kidnapped the real Matt Stafford to show some mercy.
-Marques Colston at Dallas: Colston's target numbers since the Saints November 5th game against Philadelphia: 4,6,6,5,12,4 and 3 last week against Tampa. Even in games where Drew Brees hasn't struggled, Colston has. While Colston always has the potential to go off for a huge game, he's honestly much more likely to accrue a 5 for 65 game. Part of the curse of being in such a high powered offense is that there are so many weapons to steal targets. Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles all demand around 8 looks a game, and all of the Saints bit players will get their touches as well. Mike Wallace drew the Brandon Carr matchup last week and was shut out for a majority of the game until he got 80% of his production on one 60 yard catch. Colston doesn't have that same elite level speed that Wallace does and I believe Carr and the underrated Dallas defense will hold Colston in check for the week. Instead of being a solid wide receiver 1, Colston is more a of boom bust wide receiver #2.
Notes On The Rest: If you aren't starting Aaron Hernandez, I don' t know what is wrong with you...Greg Olsen is the best tier 2 tight end play this week against the pitiful Oakland defense...Have a short memory with Connor Barth this week and get him back in your lineup...With the Chiefs talking about subbing Ricky Stanzi in at quarterback, the Chiefs are going to be the gift that keeps giving to Colts DST owners...If you have to dig very deep in a 16 team league for a defense, the Panthers DST against Oakland is not a terrible start with the news that Terrelle Pryor may get a look.
Quarterback Starts
-Tony Romo versus New Orleans: Look, last week, that Saints defense made Josh Freeman look like the old Josh Freeman. Those who started Freeman are probably not like lucky enough to tell the tale. That doesn't mean that all of sudden, the Saints are a bad matchup for fantasy quarterbacks. Greg Schiano is overmatched as an NFL coach and has not done any favors for his inconsistent young quarterback. Tony Romo is not going to have the same problems. With Miles Austin back at 100%, Dez Bryant still being a force despite catching passes with what equates to a huge claw, Jason Witten threatening Tony Gonzalez's all time tight end catch record and Dwayne Harris looking like a real player, Romo has some serious weapons against this historically bad Saints defense. Not only that, but in 18 career games before the last three weeks, Demarco Murray had scored 3 touchdowns. In the last 3, he has scored 3. While at some level, that is regression, its also taking away part of Romo's fantasy value. The Cowboys historically throw the ball in the Redzone which has allowed Romo to rack up TD's. I expect regression to that mean this week. One week against Freeman and the Bucs notwithstanding, this is still a defense that has the ability to give up an NFL record number of yards in a season. I like Romo the most out of the tier 2 level options at quarterback this week in what will be a shootout with Drew Brees and the Saints with a playoff spot on the horizon.
-Robert Griffin III at Philadelphia: To say that the Philadelphia Eagles defense has quit is to put it generously. Last time Robert Griffin of the third played Philly, he threw 4 touchdowns and added 84 rushing yards. With Shanahan saying that the young quarterback practiced in full and is going to play unless he suffers a setback, RG3 has to be in the top 3 quarterbacks this week. The combination of the terrible Eagles defense, the possibility of the playoffs for the Redskins and RG3's rushing ability should ensure that if you survived him sitting out last week, Griffin absolutely must be in your starting lineup this week.
Quarterback Sits
-Andrew Luck at Kansas City: The Chiefs are bad. Really, really, really bad; but part of them being so terrible means that they cannot keep up with the other teams scoring. Luck has also performed to a sub-par level against opponents that he should theoretically dominant. In week 14, he put up a total clunker against the Tennessee Titans in several other games, once the Colts got the lead, Luck quit throwing the ball. The games where he has been a fantasy stud have come when the Colts fell behind. I imagine that Luck is going to be a safe bet for around 220 yards and a touchdown, which just isn't enough for your fantasy championships. I don't think that Luck is a terrible play, and his most likely outcome is probably around 13-15 points, but his upside is far too limited. Most likely, if you have Luck, he was a part of your quarterback by committee. This week, I would advise attempting to find someone else.
-Colin Kaepernick At Seattle: If Kap is on your roster and you are still alive, his terrific performance against New England last week is probably part of the reason why. However, after starring in this column as a start last week, he is a clear stay-away this week. Seattle just plays better at home. Their defense is incredibly stingy, even though Brandon Browner has began his 4-week suspension. Seattle has only allowed 184 rushing yards to quarterbacks all year and rushing yards have been what has kept Kaepernick's fantasy value afloat even when he struggled in the passing game. Despite being a proficient passer, the most yards he has accrued through the air has been 243 in his starting debut. If Kap doesn't get his normal 80 yards rushing and only accounts for one touchdown in this NFC West slugfest, he will murder your bottom line. Try and find your way around starting Kaepernick this week if you can help it.
Running Back Starts
-Vick Ballard at Kansas City: The Chiefs are still really, really bad. The Colt that will receive the most fantasy benefit from the dumpster fire burning in downtown Kansas City is one Mr. Vick Ballard. After the Colts open up a 21-0 by halfway through the 2nd quarter, it will be all Vick Ballard. With Mewelde Moore's fumble at the goalline last week and the Indianapolis media expecting former goalline back Delone Carter to miss this week with injury, Ballard creeps close to top 15 status. This will end up being his highest usage game of the year. I expect something around 25 touches with 2 or 3 cracks at the goalline. Ballard is not a sexy option but with back to back 100 combo yards game and the threat to score, he is someone who has the ability to be a solid anchor for your lineup this week. This is the type of player you set into your flex if you feel you are a clear favorite in your championship matchup.
-DuJuan Harris versus Tennesee: That's right, I'm calling my shot. I wrote a piece about Harris last week and now is your time to go out on a limb and hit the homerun. If you lost Fred Jackson or Ryan Matthews or have been relying on someone like Alex Green, who is suffering from a concussion and will probably miss this week, DuJuan Harris provides a pure upside move. For those who are proponents of the Matt Waldman school of thought, who want to win their championships in legendary fashion, the small power back from Troy University should have a chance to get the lions share in the Packers backfield. They have John Kuhn and the newly resigned Ryan Grant to spell Harris should he prove not up to the task, but I do not expect either one of them to carry the load in week 16. The Packers are huge favorites over Tennessee and Harris will find himself in a similar situation to Ballard if the game script goes according to plan. He could receive upwards of 20 touches if Rodgers throws a couple quick darts to get the Packer's up. Tennessee's 28th ranked fantasy rush defense simply won't be able to hold if they are battered all game. Harris carries plenty of usage risk, but if you find yourself in a difficult spot, you could do much worse than Harris.
Wide Receiver Starts
-Danny Amendola versus Tampa Bay: A possession wide receiver who already has one embarrassingly great game on the year against the worst pass defense in the NFL? Yeah, you need to start him. Bradford uses Amendola as his binky. When the first read isn't open, he finds Amendola. Oftentimes, it doesn't even have to go that far because Amendola is the first option. The Bucs ran D is actually very solid, so Stephen Jackson should be solidly bottled up, creating plenty of favoable 2nd and 8's and 3rd and 5's which are Amendola's bread and butter. As a WR2 or a flex play for your championship week, you can't really do much better than slotting in Amendola and watching him rack up an obscene amount of targets as Sam Bradford tries to convince St. Louis that he can be at least 25% of RG3.
-Pierre Garcon at Philadelphia: A no-brainer, top 10 play this week. There is a very small list of guys that you should have in your lineup over Pete Boy this week. There is not a secondary that has quit harder than Philadelphia has. As noted in the RG3 section, this team just wants to get their season over with. Garcon's explosive speed and sure hands have made him RG3's favorite target and in a game that Washington is a serious favorite, you can bet that Garcon will be heavily involved. In the Shanahan offense, the X receiver always puts up big stats and Garcon has been another receiver who has taken up that mantle. Nnmadi Asomugha will be absolutely helpless against the bigger, stronger and faster Garcon. I fully expect over 100 yards and multiple red zone targets. If you have the luxury of benching Garcon, consider your title all wrapped up.
Wide Receiver Sits
-Roddy White at Detroit: For whatever reason, there has been a serious home and away split in fantasy points for Roddy White and Julio Jones. At home, Roddy has dominated with 620 yards and 4 TD's while catching only 536 yards and 1 TD on the road. Starting there, it becomes apparent that White isn't a great start on the road against Detroit. First, Atlanta all but has the #1 wrapped up, so if they get to a 2 touchdown lead, I highly doubt they are throwing the ball. Additionally, Matthew Stafford has just been playing awful. They don't have the weapons to keep up with the Falcons aerial attack. If you are starting White this week, you are hoping that he scores an early touchdown because his opportunities are going to dwindle as the score gets more out of hand. Mike Smith is not Bill Belichick or Pete Carroll, he isn't going to be throwing the ball up 25 in the 3rd quarter. If White murdered you last week, it is possible that you have better options. If you are forced to start him, hope for an early touchdown or for whoever kidnapped the real Matt Stafford to show some mercy.
-Marques Colston at Dallas: Colston's target numbers since the Saints November 5th game against Philadelphia: 4,6,6,5,12,4 and 3 last week against Tampa. Even in games where Drew Brees hasn't struggled, Colston has. While Colston always has the potential to go off for a huge game, he's honestly much more likely to accrue a 5 for 65 game. Part of the curse of being in such a high powered offense is that there are so many weapons to steal targets. Lance Moore, Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles all demand around 8 looks a game, and all of the Saints bit players will get their touches as well. Mike Wallace drew the Brandon Carr matchup last week and was shut out for a majority of the game until he got 80% of his production on one 60 yard catch. Colston doesn't have that same elite level speed that Wallace does and I believe Carr and the underrated Dallas defense will hold Colston in check for the week. Instead of being a solid wide receiver 1, Colston is more a of boom bust wide receiver #2.
Notes On The Rest: If you aren't starting Aaron Hernandez, I don' t know what is wrong with you...Greg Olsen is the best tier 2 tight end play this week against the pitiful Oakland defense...Have a short memory with Connor Barth this week and get him back in your lineup...With the Chiefs talking about subbing Ricky Stanzi in at quarterback, the Chiefs are going to be the gift that keeps giving to Colts DST owners...If you have to dig very deep in a 16 team league for a defense, the Panthers DST against Oakland is not a terrible start with the news that Terrelle Pryor may get a look.
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