Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
First of all, take these all with a grain of salt.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a terrible Week 15, I bounced back to a 10-7 finish last week. That makes me 82-54-1 since Week 8, not bad.
So what's my take on Week 17? Well, at first glance I wanted no part of any of it, considering that there are 17 teams that have nothing to play for and are packing to go home after Sunday, and most of the playoff teams are already locked into their spots anyway (plus Cleveland has nothing to play for either, oddly). But, as I looked at the games to try and find the right signs of motivation for good picks, I actually wound up with a decent number of picks. So here we go:
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Giants (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
ANOTHER national appearance for Tom Brady? The whole country gets to watch Brady and Moss to break several records and the NFL Network to fawn all over the Pats. The Giants? In reality the only time they could care about New England would be in February, and we all know the odds of that happening. The Pats will take care of business, going 16-0 in record fashion. Pats by 20.
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
What? Am I nuts? Didn't I just say I wanted no part of teams that have nothing to play for? Well, surprisingly both of these teams have some motivation. NFL players want to end on a high note, sure, but both teams want to get to 8-8 and show that they are close to being a playoff team next season. Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch want to show that they can be NFL studs, and Donovan McNabb has plenty to show for one more week. We all know Westbrook will give 100%, as he always does, and odds are he finds the end zone this week (one week too late for many fantasy owners). Add to this that both kickers are good and that the Eagles defense is hurting (Brian Dawkins likely out, no Takeo Spikes, Sheldon Brown not 100%) and I expect both teams to score a few TDs. 21-17 at least, so that means "OVER" is the call.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (OVER 38.5) - (2 stars)
Dallas has nothing to play for - or do they? The Cowboys want to prove to themselves and their future opponents that they can move the ball without TO (whom they may not have in the playoffs, at least once) and that they can actually score in the first quarter. I've heard about the starters getting pulled, and I believe it - but Brad Johnson doesn't like the Redskins either, and no one in Dallas likes the idea of them facing their biggest rival again in January. Nothing would give them more pleasure than ending Washington's season. Add in that Julius Jones will try and actually produce in the hopes of getting a 2008 job somewhere (good luck), and the Cowboys actually have incentive. Washington? We know their reasons - win or go home. I expect both teams to play hard and score on each other reasonably well. Only weather (rain?) could dampen my expectations.
San Francisco 49ers (+12) at Cleveland Browns - (2 stars)
Cleveland has nothing to play for, aside from tuning up in case the Titans lose. If so, they should be resting anyone who might be hurting, and even if they are up big (say, 14-20 points) they will be pulling guys out of the game in the fourth quarter. The weather probably won't be great (under 40, 30% chance of snow showers) which should lower the score. Add in that now I hear Shaun Hill is a no-go (that's why I write these as last minute as I can) and Chris Weinke is starting - which moved the line from 10.5 to 12 points - and you can see that SF is expected to be non-competitive. Well, I think that Weinke can throw it the 5-10 yards to Vernon Davis and Arnaz Battle if need be, but expect Frank Gore to have 100+ yards and at least one touchdown in this one. I look for SF to cover and - if Romeo Crennel gets Jon Gruden ideas - the 49ers could win outright. If you're looking for a huge upside value play, SF +550 to win (11:2 odds) is a nice option - but beyond the scope of what I'm writing here. Take SF and the points.
San Diego Chargers (-8) at Oakland Raiders - (2 stars)
Wow, look what I found - a playoff team with incentive! The Chargers will be the #3 seed if they win, and the Raiders are just what the doctor ordered here. Oakland won't be able to stop the ground game, and Tomlinson wants the rushing title. Guess what - LT2 has had the most success in his career against - who else - the Raiders. Even Philip Rivers can't screw this one up, can he? I'll take the LT2s to score plenty and the rookie Jamarcus Russell to give San Diego lots of gift turnovers. Chargers by double-digits.
Indianapolis Colts (+6) vs. Tennessee Titans - (2 stars)
Act fast, because this line is slipping fast. The Colts will look to get several players some records and also get Harrison worked into the mix, so expect Indy to come out guns-a-blazing in this one. Reggie Wayne needs 8 catches for 100 and Peyton wants to work out some timing with Harrison, so I expect 14-17 points in the first half here. That should be enough to cover the spread here as the Titans may not get much more than 20 even if they do win it. The second string for Indy is no slouch, and I think The Kenton Keith Show will get a second half touchdown. Oh yeah, Adam Vinatieri isn't bad either.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (OVER 41.5) - (2 stars)
The Vikings need to win and cross their fingers that Dallas beats Washington to move on to the Wild Card Round - and guess what? Minnesota is great at running the ball, and Denver stinks at stopping it! Perfect match! Look for ADP and Chester Taylor to both do what many fantasy owners wished had happened in Week 16 - get 100 yards and a score, each. The Broncos will try and keep pace with Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler and Tony Scheffler pushing the passing game, as we know that the Vikings are tough to run against. I expect a pretty good shootout here, with both teams at 24+.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Denver Broncos - (3 stars)
See above for more details, but the Vikings need this one. Three points is fine by me.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (OVER 39) - (3 stars)
Again, see above. The Colts will put up a lead, the Titans will play catch up. Both teams will get 20+. Sounds good.
***EXOTIC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Denver Broncos (OVER 35.5) - (3 stars)
Reasons above - I like both, so why not play both together?
of the Week - Minnesota Vikings.
***SUCKER BET GAME***
Pretty Much Everything Else.
Come on, it's Week 17. Most teams are worried more about their next contract than this week. Stay as far away as you can from Week 17 unless you really have a good feel for a game.
Good luck and Enjoy.
Also - thanks for hanging out and reading these. I hope that this thread served you well in 2007.
Happy New Year.
Secondly, these are for educational purposes only.
Third - I think it is a major mistake to try and predict all games.
My ranking system is based on "Stars", which gauges how strongly I feel about each pick.
After a terrible Week 15, I bounced back to a 10-7 finish last week. That makes me 82-54-1 since Week 8, not bad.
So what's my take on Week 17? Well, at first glance I wanted no part of any of it, considering that there are 17 teams that have nothing to play for and are packing to go home after Sunday, and most of the playoff teams are already locked into their spots anyway (plus Cleveland has nothing to play for either, oddly). But, as I looked at the games to try and find the right signs of motivation for good picks, I actually wound up with a decent number of picks. So here we go:
Let's go:
*ONE STAR GAMES*
New England Patriots (-13.5) at New York Giants (SATURDAY GAME) - (1 star)
ANOTHER national appearance for Tom Brady? The whole country gets to watch Brady and Moss to break several records and the NFL Network to fawn all over the Pats. The Giants? In reality the only time they could care about New England would be in February, and we all know the odds of that happening. The Pats will take care of business, going 16-0 in record fashion. Pats by 20.
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles (OVER 37.5) - (1 star)
What? Am I nuts? Didn't I just say I wanted no part of teams that have nothing to play for? Well, surprisingly both of these teams have some motivation. NFL players want to end on a high note, sure, but both teams want to get to 8-8 and show that they are close to being a playoff team next season. Trent Edwards and Marshawn Lynch want to show that they can be NFL studs, and Donovan McNabb has plenty to show for one more week. We all know Westbrook will give 100%, as he always does, and odds are he finds the end zone this week (one week too late for many fantasy owners). Add to this that both kickers are good and that the Eagles defense is hurting (Brian Dawkins likely out, no Takeo Spikes, Sheldon Brown not 100%) and I expect both teams to score a few TDs. 21-17 at least, so that means "OVER" is the call.
**TWO STAR GAMES**
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (OVER 38.5) - (2 stars)
Dallas has nothing to play for - or do they? The Cowboys want to prove to themselves and their future opponents that they can move the ball without TO (whom they may not have in the playoffs, at least once) and that they can actually score in the first quarter. I've heard about the starters getting pulled, and I believe it - but Brad Johnson doesn't like the Redskins either, and no one in Dallas likes the idea of them facing their biggest rival again in January. Nothing would give them more pleasure than ending Washington's season. Add in that Julius Jones will try and actually produce in the hopes of getting a 2008 job somewhere (good luck), and the Cowboys actually have incentive. Washington? We know their reasons - win or go home. I expect both teams to play hard and score on each other reasonably well. Only weather (rain?) could dampen my expectations.
San Francisco 49ers (+12) at Cleveland Browns - (2 stars)
Cleveland has nothing to play for, aside from tuning up in case the Titans lose. If so, they should be resting anyone who might be hurting, and even if they are up big (say, 14-20 points) they will be pulling guys out of the game in the fourth quarter. The weather probably won't be great (under 40, 30% chance of snow showers) which should lower the score. Add in that now I hear Shaun Hill is a no-go (that's why I write these as last minute as I can) and Chris Weinke is starting - which moved the line from 10.5 to 12 points - and you can see that SF is expected to be non-competitive. Well, I think that Weinke can throw it the 5-10 yards to Vernon Davis and Arnaz Battle if need be, but expect Frank Gore to have 100+ yards and at least one touchdown in this one. I look for SF to cover and - if Romeo Crennel gets Jon Gruden ideas - the 49ers could win outright. If you're looking for a huge upside value play, SF +550 to win (11:2 odds) is a nice option - but beyond the scope of what I'm writing here. Take SF and the points.
San Diego Chargers (-8) at Oakland Raiders - (2 stars)
Wow, look what I found - a playoff team with incentive! The Chargers will be the #3 seed if they win, and the Raiders are just what the doctor ordered here. Oakland won't be able to stop the ground game, and Tomlinson wants the rushing title. Guess what - LT2 has had the most success in his career against - who else - the Raiders. Even Philip Rivers can't screw this one up, can he? I'll take the LT2s to score plenty and the rookie Jamarcus Russell to give San Diego lots of gift turnovers. Chargers by double-digits.
Indianapolis Colts (+6) vs. Tennessee Titans - (2 stars)
Act fast, because this line is slipping fast. The Colts will look to get several players some records and also get Harrison worked into the mix, so expect Indy to come out guns-a-blazing in this one. Reggie Wayne needs 8 catches for 100 and Peyton wants to work out some timing with Harrison, so I expect 14-17 points in the first half here. That should be enough to cover the spread here as the Titans may not get much more than 20 even if they do win it. The second string for Indy is no slouch, and I think The Kenton Keith Show will get a second half touchdown. Oh yeah, Adam Vinatieri isn't bad either.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (OVER 41.5) - (2 stars)
The Vikings need to win and cross their fingers that Dallas beats Washington to move on to the Wild Card Round - and guess what? Minnesota is great at running the ball, and Denver stinks at stopping it! Perfect match! Look for ADP and Chester Taylor to both do what many fantasy owners wished had happened in Week 16 - get 100 yards and a score, each. The Broncos will try and keep pace with Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler and Tony Scheffler pushing the passing game, as we know that the Vikings are tough to run against. I expect a pretty good shootout here, with both teams at 24+.
***THREE STAR GAMES***
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Denver Broncos - (3 stars)
See above for more details, but the Vikings need this one. Three points is fine by me.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (OVER 39) - (3 stars)
Again, see above. The Colts will put up a lead, the Titans will play catch up. Both teams will get 20+. Sounds good.
***EXOTIC PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Minnesota Vikings (+3) at Denver Broncos (OVER 35.5) - (3 stars)
Reasons above - I like both, so why not play both together?
of the Week - Minnesota Vikings.***SUCKER BET GAME***
Pretty Much Everything Else.
Come on, it's Week 17. Most teams are worried more about their next contract than this week. Stay as far away as you can from Week 17 unless you really have a good feel for a game.
Good luck and Enjoy.
Also - thanks for hanging out and reading these. I hope that this thread served you well in 2007.
Happy New Year.
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm not a bettor so maybe you get to count wins twice or something...
I'm involved in my league's FF Superbowl and am wanting to start Wayne for the very reasons you stated despite most if not all the FF experts stating he'll be benched early. I too take Dungy at face value when he said he want Wayne to get 100 receptions and possibly 1500 yds (both firsts for Wayne). I also think Dungy will try to win this game outright so as to knock the ALWAYS troublesome Titans out of the playoffs so they won't see them again. Say San Deigo falls yet again in the first round of the playoffs, who would Indy rather face; Cleveland or Tennessee? I'm guessing Cleveland.
