Week 18 Confidence Pool (1 Viewer)

[3 hour lunch]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

 

[houston]

Flip a coin or ask your dog/child to pick. Guessing you’ll have similar success.

 

[kface]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

Ugh this is the toughest week ever and I'm tied for first...I'll give you my first shot below

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Still balt...i think Huntley still beats pitt
Indy -1 Hou. Hou - with stroud healthy they are vastly superior
Saints -4 Atl - saints they need it
Cinc -4 Cle. Cin only because the backups on the browns aren't great
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck indeed...coin flip but i lean Jets
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Jax they need it
Det -4 Vikes. Detroit
SF -3.5 Rams. SF doesn't for sure rams are playing for 6th or 7th seed. They might decide to sit stafford and if they do 49ers otherwise rams
GB -3 Chi. In CHI i go CHI
Sea -3 AZ - nobody wants this game but I'll go AZ in AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Also yuck but i go Vegas
Chargers -1.5 KC. KC
Buff -3 Mia. Buff 100%

 

[3 hour lunch]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

Ugh this is the toughest week ever and I'm tied for first...I'll give you my first shot below

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Still balt...i think Huntley still beats pitt
Indy -1 Hou. Hou - with stroud healthy they are vastly superior
Saints -4 Atl - saints they need it
Cinc -4 Cle. Cin only because the backups on the browns aren't great
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck indeed...coin flip but i lean Jets
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Jax they need it
Det -4 Vikes. Detroit
SF -3.5 Rams. SF doesn't for sure rams are playing for 6th or 7th seed. They might decide to sit stafford and if they do 49ers otherwise rams
GB -3 Chi. In CHI i go CHI
Sea -3 AZ - nobody wants this game but I'll go AZ in AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Also yuck but i go Vegas
Chargers -1.5 KC. KC
Buff -3 Mia. Buff 100%

Agree with many of these takes. Balt depends on how many players they rest. Huntley indeed capable. Sea still a decent playoff shot I thought?

 

[kface]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

Ugh this is the toughest week ever and I'm tied for first...I'll give you my first shot below

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Still balt...i think Huntley still beats pitt
Indy -1 Hou. Hou - with stroud healthy they are vastly superior
Saints -4 Atl - saints they need it
Cinc -4 Cle. Cin only because the backups on the browns aren't great
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck indeed...coin flip but i lean Jets
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Jax they need it
Det -4 Vikes. Detroit
SF -3.5 Rams. SF doesn't for sure rams are playing for 6th or 7th seed. They might decide to sit stafford and if they do 49ers otherwise rams
GB -3 Chi. In CHI i go CHI
Sea -3 AZ - nobody wants this game but I'll go AZ in AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Also yuck but i go Vegas
Chargers -1.5 KC. KC
Buff -3 Mia. Buff 100%

Agree with many of these takes. Balt depends on how many players they rest. Huntley indeed capable. Sea still a decent playoff shot I thought?

I think seattle is still a long shot and it feels like they are mailing it in already

 

[FairWarning]

I like NE a lot, possibly BB’s last game for the Pats.

Bears - GB is in GB.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Bump for late week news. I’m surprised to see Chargers -3.5 vs Chiefs, even with Chiefs resting a bunch. Chargers have been pretty awful.

 

[Tanner9919]

Packers win in a rout, play dallas next week.
pitt loses, misses playoffs
Miami loses( badly) goes to KC next week
Colts win, play bill in buffalo next week.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'm guessing Browns are locked into the 5 hole and will just lay down this week?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think a better way to think of this is that most of us have no idea who will win these games, but unless we're in the running for the season-long race, our goal this week should be to choose a high-variance strategy that at least allows us to win an individual week. That's tougher to do with only one island game; in a regular week, you can put your two highest point totals on the SNF/MNF games and then switch to the underdogs. But this week, you can only do that for SNF, and because it's a narrow spread, there will be a lot less variance.

Anyway, I don't have any answers to this question, but I think it's more useful to spend time trying to figure it out than guessing whether Carson Wentz will outduel Sam Darnold or Blaine Gabbert can defeat Easton Stick

ETA: I suppose the high-variance strategy would be to pick the game with the biggest spread (Dallas @ Wash). If, at the end of the 1:00 games, you're doing well, keep your Dallas pick. But if you've already gotten a few wrong, switch your 16-burger to Washington and pray for a miracle

 

[Barksdale]

Seems like Raiders at home vs. Denver should be a safe pick. What am I missing?
Another seemingly decent option is Chiefs over Chargers on the road however Mahomes isn't playing and the Chiefs have been a mess with Mahomes lately.

Colts are 8-2-1 in past 11 vs. Texans, and Houston is 4-16 in past 20 trips to Indy.
Despite this, the Texans seem like a better pick -- I’m likely staying away from this one though.

Bears @ Packers seems like a coin flip as well.

 

[Tanner9919]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

Balt beats pitt's face in, hated rival, beat them down
Houston wins
Saints win falcons players don't want another year of artie smith as HC
Cleve stays hot beats cincy
Jets beat Pats - no way in hell Pats lose the 2nd pick and chance at Penix JR just to beat the jets in a meaningless game. breece hall goes nuts here
End of Vrabels tenure in Tenn game - Jags dominate. Vrabel fired monday, 8a
Vikes are toast.
LAmbs lay down it doesnt matter.
GB either wins or LeFleur gets fired, 2-3 postseason record as hc of packers. this will have been the 2nd straight loss @ home, final week, with playoffs on the line. if you can't win sunday, go find a job somewhere else. you cannot lose to hated rivals like kitties and cubbies in consecutive years.
LeFleur is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL. and a smarmy one at that.
Chargers can't beat a high school team even KC 3 strings can whoop the LA starters.

Bills roll in this game, and Miami might be in a good spot, road game v KC - Hill should be ready to burn the Chiefs secondary. Bills need this game, miami does not.

 

[3 hour lunch]

Always tricky with players resting, teams with nothing to play for. These are currently the games with spreads of 4 or less. Thoughts on winners of these games straight up?

Pitt -3.5 Balt. Will Balt play anyone?
Indy -1 Hou. Big game for both, obviously
Saints -4 Atl
Cinc -4 Cle. Assuming lots of Cle players resting but Cincy also little motivation
Pats -2 Jets. Yuck
Jax -3.5 Tenn. Lawrence questionable.
Det -4 Vikes. Vikings seem ready for the offseson
SF -3.5 Rams. Neither team has anything to play for, I believe?
GB -3 Chi. GB win and in, but Chi playing well
Sea -3 AZ
Vegas -2.5 Denver. Double yuck
Chargers -1.5 KC. Seems like KCs 2nd string may still be able to pull this out?
Buff -3 Mia. Mia banged up and recency bias will have everyone on Buff I assume

Balt beats pitt's face in, hated rival, beat them down
Houston wins
Saints win falcons players don't want another year of artie smith as HC
Cleve stays hot beats cincy
Jets beat Pats - no way in hell Pats lose the 2nd pick and chance at Penix JR just to beat the jets in a meaningless game. breece hall goes nuts here
End of Vrabels tenure in Tenn game - Jags dominate. Vrabel fired monday, 8a
Vikes are toast.
LAmbs lay down it doesnt matter.
GB either wins or LeFleur gets fired, 2-3 postseason record as hc of packers. this will have been the 2nd straight loss @ home, final week, with playoffs on the line. if you can't win sunday, go find a job somewhere else. you cannot lose to hated rivals like kitties and cubbies in consecutive years.
LeFleur is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL. and a smarmy one at that.
Chargers can't beat a high school team even KC 3 strings can whoop the LA starters.

Bills roll in this game, and Miami might be in a good spot, road game v KC - Hill should be ready to burn the Chiefs secondary. Bills need this game, miami does not.

I had lost sight of the NE 2nd pick angle, but Belichick more than anyone seems like he couldn’t care less about that. Should be interesting. Cleveland winning wouldn’t surprise me but they are starting some nobody at qb…..