LHUCKS
Footballguy
Tell me which ones you like or hate.
Mendenhall 95.5 Yards Rushing - Under
Mendenhall has only rushed for 95 yards 5 of the last 18 weeks. This year he has NOT eclipsed 70 yards. Although Hillis and Tate have both eclipsed this mark vs. the Colts this year, I still think this is a bit too high for a RB that rarely breaks long runs. In last week's easy win vs. the Seahawks Mendenhall gave way to Redman who had 10 carries. Mendenhall totaled 19.
Alex Smith 18.5 Completions - Under
Smith has had 15 and 16 completions vs. the Hawks and Cowboys respectively, both were home games against subpar secondaries although Dallas does have a decent pass rush. The Bengals D is among the most underrated in the league and they're going to be hungry at home. Harbaugh loves to run it.
Alex Smith 1.5 TDs - Under
Smith has had 0 and 2 TDs in his first two games...Cincinnati D will be fired up at home. One of my favorite lines of the week.
AJ Green 4.5 Receptions - Over
Coming off a 10 reception performance in week 2. I think the Bengals try to showcase him in their home opener. Dalton was locked onto him last week. Will likely come down to the number of double teams he faces.
Tom Brady 315 Yards - Over
Averaging over 450 yards against better defenses. This line is low because Brady only average 200 yards vs. Buffalo last year, but I'll take the recent data...the Pats are on a mission.
Welker 80.5 Yards - Under
His average is well above this, but Welker isn't normally a big play guy and there are a lot of mouths to feed in New England. Welker only covered this total 3 of 15 weeks last year...historically not a huge yardage guy, but public is looking at his last two games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick 21.5 Completions - Over
Love, love this line. Coming off a 28 completion game vs. a very good Raider defense. Pats defense was lit up by Chad Henne and Phillip Rivers. Fitzpatrick on a tear. Would take an injury for this not to cover.
Steve Johnson 69.5 Yards - Over
Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson, both #1 WRs lit up the Pats Secondary in weeks one and two respectively. Steve Johnson is one of the most underrated WRs in the game. Love this over.
Owen Daniels 3 Receptions - Over
The Texans didn't have to pass in week one vs. the Colts and in week two Owens got 5 targets and 3 receptions. This seems like a safe play to me in a game that should see a lot of pass attempts.
Jimmy Graham 4 Receptions - Over
With Colston out last week Graham had 6 receptions. With Colston out again look for Graham to at least push here. Lance Moore back could cut into targets, but not by much.
Brandon Marshall 73 Yards - Over
Averaging over 100 per game this year. Colts D isn't exactly stellar. Marshall has looked great this year. Cleveland D hasn't given up a big WR day this year, but that's because they haven't played a bigtime WR with a decent QB.
Davone Bess 4 Receptions - Under
Bess has averaged 3.5 receptions this year, and is averaging 6 targets per game. 4 receptions on 6 targets is a high conversion. The Pats game inflated his targets too.
Colt McCoy 208 Yards - Over
The Dolphins D has been lit up by both Brady and Schaub. McCoy has covered this both weeks and the offense should be getting better. Love this line.
Orton 21.5 Completions - Under
The Titans front 7 is very good and totally shutdown a redhot Ravens offense in week 2. The Broncos WRs are decimated and John Fox doesn't like to pass.
Orton 240 yards - Under
See Above.
Kenny Britt - 79 Yards, Over
Averaging over 135 per game. The oddsmakers must be predicting a ball control approach by the Titans, but Britt can take any ball to the house and Hasselbeck loves him.
Steve Smith - 70 Yards, Over
Averaging almost double this, there is a risk that Jax will get blown out and stop passing...that's the only reason and I can come up with this line.
Steve Smith - 5 Receptions, Over
Averaging 7 receptions per game, see above
Dwayne Bowe - 4 Receptions, Over
Has covered this 5 of last 6 healthy games played. With Charles out he's going to get double digit targets because the the Chiefs are going to be behind early...Bet the hell out of this one.
Derrick Mason - 2.5 Receptions, Under
Old and terrible...averaging 6 yards per catch and the Raiders D is going to be fired up.
Darren McFadden - 79.5 Yards, Over
RUN DMC is the second best pure runner in the game. I'll take the over at home vs. any team, including the Jets. McFadden is making a statement this year.
Ray Rice - 128 Yards, Under
Rice didn't surpass this total ONCE on the road in his last 18 games, not once. Now, the Rams defense sucks, but this is a huge total for a road game. St. Louis needs a win and they will be fired up at home. I like the under.
Mike Sims Walker - 3.5 Receptions, Over
Had 6 catches last week and is getting integrated into the offense...easily the best WR on the team. Always underrated when healthy.
Michael Turner - 98.5 Rushing yards, Under
The Burner looks like he's lost a step to me, and TB can play inspired defense at home. This is a big total for a one dimensional back like Turner, particularly against a good home rush defense.
Tony Gonzalez - 5 Receptions, Under
Has started out hot, but deceiving reception totals. Last year Gonzalez only had more than 5 receptions 5 of 16 games. Add in the Bucs will likely try to run and play conservative offense to keep the Falcons off the field...really like this one.
Mendenhall 95.5 Yards Rushing - Under
Mendenhall has only rushed for 95 yards 5 of the last 18 weeks. This year he has NOT eclipsed 70 yards. Although Hillis and Tate have both eclipsed this mark vs. the Colts this year, I still think this is a bit too high for a RB that rarely breaks long runs. In last week's easy win vs. the Seahawks Mendenhall gave way to Redman who had 10 carries. Mendenhall totaled 19.
Alex Smith 18.5 Completions - Under
Smith has had 15 and 16 completions vs. the Hawks and Cowboys respectively, both were home games against subpar secondaries although Dallas does have a decent pass rush. The Bengals D is among the most underrated in the league and they're going to be hungry at home. Harbaugh loves to run it.
Alex Smith 1.5 TDs - Under
Smith has had 0 and 2 TDs in his first two games...Cincinnati D will be fired up at home. One of my favorite lines of the week.
AJ Green 4.5 Receptions - Over
Coming off a 10 reception performance in week 2. I think the Bengals try to showcase him in their home opener. Dalton was locked onto him last week. Will likely come down to the number of double teams he faces.
Tom Brady 315 Yards - Over
Averaging over 450 yards against better defenses. This line is low because Brady only average 200 yards vs. Buffalo last year, but I'll take the recent data...the Pats are on a mission.
Welker 80.5 Yards - Under
His average is well above this, but Welker isn't normally a big play guy and there are a lot of mouths to feed in New England. Welker only covered this total 3 of 15 weeks last year...historically not a huge yardage guy, but public is looking at his last two games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick 21.5 Completions - Over
Love, love this line. Coming off a 28 completion game vs. a very good Raider defense. Pats defense was lit up by Chad Henne and Phillip Rivers. Fitzpatrick on a tear. Would take an injury for this not to cover.
Steve Johnson 69.5 Yards - Over
Brandon Marshall and Vincent Jackson, both #1 WRs lit up the Pats Secondary in weeks one and two respectively. Steve Johnson is one of the most underrated WRs in the game. Love this over.
Owen Daniels 3 Receptions - Over
The Texans didn't have to pass in week one vs. the Colts and in week two Owens got 5 targets and 3 receptions. This seems like a safe play to me in a game that should see a lot of pass attempts.
Jimmy Graham 4 Receptions - Over
With Colston out last week Graham had 6 receptions. With Colston out again look for Graham to at least push here. Lance Moore back could cut into targets, but not by much.
Brandon Marshall 73 Yards - Over
Averaging over 100 per game this year. Colts D isn't exactly stellar. Marshall has looked great this year. Cleveland D hasn't given up a big WR day this year, but that's because they haven't played a bigtime WR with a decent QB.
Davone Bess 4 Receptions - Under
Bess has averaged 3.5 receptions this year, and is averaging 6 targets per game. 4 receptions on 6 targets is a high conversion. The Pats game inflated his targets too.
Colt McCoy 208 Yards - Over
The Dolphins D has been lit up by both Brady and Schaub. McCoy has covered this both weeks and the offense should be getting better. Love this line.
Orton 21.5 Completions - Under
The Titans front 7 is very good and totally shutdown a redhot Ravens offense in week 2. The Broncos WRs are decimated and John Fox doesn't like to pass.
Orton 240 yards - Under
See Above.
Kenny Britt - 79 Yards, Over
Averaging over 135 per game. The oddsmakers must be predicting a ball control approach by the Titans, but Britt can take any ball to the house and Hasselbeck loves him.
Steve Smith - 70 Yards, Over
Averaging almost double this, there is a risk that Jax will get blown out and stop passing...that's the only reason and I can come up with this line.
Steve Smith - 5 Receptions, Over
Averaging 7 receptions per game, see above
Dwayne Bowe - 4 Receptions, Over
Has covered this 5 of last 6 healthy games played. With Charles out he's going to get double digit targets because the the Chiefs are going to be behind early...Bet the hell out of this one.
Derrick Mason - 2.5 Receptions, Under
Old and terrible...averaging 6 yards per catch and the Raiders D is going to be fired up.
Darren McFadden - 79.5 Yards, Over
RUN DMC is the second best pure runner in the game. I'll take the over at home vs. any team, including the Jets. McFadden is making a statement this year.
Ray Rice - 128 Yards, Under
Rice didn't surpass this total ONCE on the road in his last 18 games, not once. Now, the Rams defense sucks, but this is a huge total for a road game. St. Louis needs a win and they will be fired up at home. I like the under.
Mike Sims Walker - 3.5 Receptions, Over
Had 6 catches last week and is getting integrated into the offense...easily the best WR on the team. Always underrated when healthy.
Michael Turner - 98.5 Rushing yards, Under
The Burner looks like he's lost a step to me, and TB can play inspired defense at home. This is a big total for a one dimensional back like Turner, particularly against a good home rush defense.
Tony Gonzalez - 5 Receptions, Under
Has started out hot, but deceiving reception totals. Last year Gonzalez only had more than 5 receptions 5 of 16 games. Add in the Bucs will likely try to run and play conservative offense to keep the Falcons off the field...really like this one.
