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Seems a little too early to write Welker off. I would not hesitate to start Welker this week if I owned him.
Why would he have been ranked so high by FBG last week then?
Probably because it was anticipated he'd carry a larger workload based off last years production. Unless someone at FBG's had an insider working closely with Billichick it would like be pretty difficult to forecast his gameplan for the day which the team has already explained was specific to playing the Titans offense.FF isn't a perfect science as you know.
Thanks for the feedback, but I was referring specifically to the bold part (which is why I bolded it) My point or question has nothing to do with week 1.
I would go with my gut rather than the rankings, which are sort of a crap shoot. My gut tells me that Welker is being phased out for more reasons than one. First, it is a headache for the front office to have to deal with his money demands. If the team has many players that can produce just as much, why would they not go with what is cheaper? Secondly, Welker has a lot of miles on the tires...31 does not seem that old, but it sort of is in his case because of his heavy use over the past four years. I feel that he will have a few really good games, but there is no way he sees 100 balls, let alone 70 this year. Last, the Pats D looks to be fixed. If it is fixed, that means they will run a little bit more if they can. That also takes away from what Welker can do.
It's insane. Week 11 last year, Welker had 3 targets for 2/22. It happens to all WRs, even the best. He still finished the season with 122/1569.Unless they expect Welker to no longer be able to get open at will and be one of Brady's security blankets, this ranking is way off.I actually like the additional threats on the field. More guys to account for means less ability to focus on Welker, and Welker is the exact kind of receiver who always seems to find a way to exploit a defense's weaknesses.Here is how I view the situation:1) Brady probably won't throw for 5235 again, but I would be very surprised to see him drop below 4600. This team still likes to put the pedal to the metal and Brady is an all time great with a fully loaded arsenal at his disposal.2) Gronk will still be a beast but not to the tune of an all time great TE season (receiving season, even).3) Hernandez should see an uptick in his production but I think most of that will siphon from Gronk. 4) Deion Branch and Chad Johnson departed, leaving 1000/6 on the table.5) Lloyd will be a part of the game plan and productive, but his role will likely be to stretch the defense vertically and somewhat limited.6) The running game will be improved, but they still won't be a running football team. I am bullish on Ridley but that is because I think he will be BJGE plus this season, not because NE is suddenly going to be a smash mouth, run first team. As stated in point 1, a drop in Brady's stats from last year is already taken into consideration.What does all this mean for Welker? He won't do what he did last season. Most of us knew that which is why he was often times not even going off the board as a WR1. But is he going to be irrelevant, as FBG's seems to think based on their preseason and week 2 projections? You'd be crazy to think that. I would slot him as follows: floor is mid tier WR2, projection is top end WR2/bottom end WR1, cieling is top 3 WR on the season (he has shown he can do that).Lastly I would say that those who suggest Welker is being "phased out," that New England is preparing for life without him next year, or that Belichick is sticking it to Welker because of contract issues are not really thinking clearly. New England is going to do whatever helps them win, week in and week out, preparing themselves to make it to a Super Bowl and win one, this year. They aren't worried about life without Welker next year and it certainly won't effect their game plans. Hogwash.
Again, I get all that. I was asking specifically about the bold part. If FBG had knowledge of a possible reduced role b/c of a concussion in the preseason, why have him ranked #15 WR last week, then site that reasoning for his ranking this week?
That info just got put out there in the past few days . . . not before the first game.
My opinion is that this argument makes no sense at all. Welker is signed through this season and finance has nothing to do with how they will go about game planning. Finance guys aren't in Belichick's or McDaniel's ear, in meeting rooms. Let alone 70? Okay. This will be wrong barring injury.
I think you need a few more of these !!!! and I might understand.
I am pretty sure that it would go over your head even with a few more.
So David, do you still think hes forecast to be a top 10-15 receiver this season?
I don't know man...it seemed that Welker's contract demands and smart alicky comments over the summer before he signed the tender were irritating to the brass. Also, the GM is guy who manages the money and while I am certain he doesn't tell Big Belicheck what to do, I would guess that he has input into things. Just a guess on my part...as someone who owns Lloyd and Ridley, I hope I am not wrong.
Belichick probably has a lot more input into the GM's job than vice versa.The Patriots have one goal every week during the season, and that is to win the game. They have one goal on the season, and that is to win the Super Bowl.
IMO, he will have a year similar to his seasons in NE prior to 2011. So fewer yards and TDs than last year, but still 100-110 receptions, 1100-1200 yards, 5-6 TD.
yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee hawwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww
confirmed
Good info David. Didn't realize this was a possibility.
Mike Reiss was the one that tweeted the stuff about a concussion. I know Mike personally and have followed him for years. He wouldn't present something if he didn't have reliable information to report on something. I have asked some other people I know about Welker and they can't confirm that he had a concussion, but they can't rule it out either.Good info David. Didn't realize this was a possibility.
Not sure if serious...
If he was to be phased out, it would've happened last year and he wouldn't be on the team now.He's another bullet in the chamber. Sometimes you don't need all of them to kill the opponent.'CaGamblers said:I don't buy it.......As cheap and frugal as the Pats are they aren't going to pay a guy 9.5mil to do nothing. Welker is going to get his
Agree. Unless they know something. On the other hand, Yudkin is the FBG who is most connected to the Pats and hes given no indication that something is going on. So again, this weeks ranking is really perplexing.
No I see him having a year similar to last year, maybe not as many catches but with Lloyd giving them a legitimate deep threat, the Gronk and Hernandez working the drawing attention, I am hoping that Welker will not be the main focus for defenses to stop. I am see 85-90 receptions with 1200 yards and 7 TD's this year.The fact that they had a legitimate ground game in week 1 can only help him as linebackers will also need to respect Ridley out of the backfield.Lets not forget that Welker also had a drop on a from Brady in the first quarter too that would have improved his stat line this week.'Shutout said:
I have nothing to do with the weekly rankings, but when I looked at the initial rankings this week Welker was not in the Top 60. I don't quite understand that, but it's not my call.FWIW, in the past when Welker had fewer than 5 receptions in a game for the Pats (excluding 2010 when he was hobbled), Welker has usually bounced back very well. In those 8 games (again not counting 2010), he's averaged 9.25 receptions, 99.4 yards, and 0.62 TD (or 22.9 fantasy points in a PPR league).Guess we'll have to see what's up . . .
Thanks for the feedback. I imagine that noone else (Dodds, etc) has insiders that are closer to the org than you?
'display name said:
While Finance isn't the area of concern for Belichick & co., they do tend to take a long view of their franchise. Certainly more so than other coaches in the league that have to win now to ensure their job. IMO, I can foresee a potential phase-out of Welker this year, especially early. They know they have Welker signed for this year, but beyond that... who knows? Their offense has gone thru Welker since about 2009. He's been the guy moving the chains and keeping drives alive. The addition of and subsequent growth of the two TEs has expanded what they can do and allowed Welker to a bit more traditional WR role last year.
Great idea, Belly.