What does the Moss trade do to Welker? (1 Viewer)

[gianmarco]

Since Joe is ok with discussing the big topics, I think this is probably the biggest one that's in question.

Does this move help or hurt Welker? If so, how much? Welker is a major fantasy piece, especially in PPR, but does his drawing of the #1 coverage guy hurt him? Will he see even more targets? More redzone looks?

 

[doowain]

But, yeah, I agree.....Welker deserves his own thread. The two biggest questions IMO are how this affects Welker and how it affects Sidney Rice.

 

[gandalas]

I have to think that this both helps and hurts welker. Helps because he is now even more option 1 than he was before...hurts him in that he will no longer have a Hall of Fame WR over the top.

We will have to see which one weighs out in the end. I voted "Helps him", on my hopes as a Welker owner.

 

[joffer]

no effect

 

[j0novision]

Oddly I think it helps for his stats. You can't say that rolling coverage his way is going to automatically decrease his fantasy points without taking into account the fact that Moss is gone and those balls need to go somewhere combined with the face that they're going to have to be increasingly creative with how to use him.

That had to be a run on sentence.

Jon

 

[Gopher State]

It will hurt Welker, he will the guy, and get all the coverage

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

I don't think it helps or hurts welker. He will get more targets, but that will be counterbalanced by the increased attention he will receive. I think the trade helps Tate, Hernandez, and Woodhead the most. It hurts Brady.

 

[Cliff Clavin]

It will hurt Welker, he will the guy, and get all the coverage

Huh?

 

[Aabye]

I can't really see how this could increase the number of targets for Welker. He already averaged better than 10 targets per game last year and it's hard to significantly improve on that.

Moss is a guy who dictates coverages and losing him makes the entire Patriots offense considerably less explosive. I don't really think Welker is going to draw more coverage now, but I think his numbers will take a slight dip simply because the offense won't be as effective.

 

[Clifford]

All this increases for Welker is coverage. Whatever your personal opinion of Moss, the NFL's opinion was that he was uncoverable 1-1. He drew double teams against every team other than the Jets. Welker now gets 75% of that attention. Unless Hernandez finishes as the no.1 TE this season this really, really hurts Welker. I would sell him right now if I owned him.

Keep in mind Welker has never played in NE without Moss.

 

[barista]

IMO welker takes a hit...

Moss takes coverage without getting tons of receptions...

Welker should see much tighter coverage without a substantial increase in looks. I would think he's at the best a push but likely will see a hit.

Big winner may be Tate but I think it's a big fantasy loss all around.

 

[az_prof]

I don't believe Welker has the physical size to get open if he double covered. We'll see, but I think he takes a big dip.

 

[pecorino]

just picked up edelman thinking he'll fill welker's role now that welker will be dealing with tighter coverage. i wonder if brandon tate is available, too...

 

[thriftyrocker]

It hurts his YAC more than his receptions. The defense will not be stretched. I think he will always be able to get open, but there will be more guys there to tackle him.

However, his injury is already destroying his YPR and YAC. It can't be any worse than 8 YPR.

His red zone utilization has no change. Passes to Moss now go to the TEs.

 

[dagwood]

just picked up edelman thinking he'll fill welker's role now that welker will be dealing with tighter coverage. i wonder if brandon tate is available, too...

Welker will stay in the slot. They will not move him outside. Most teams don't like to put their best DB on a slot receiver so I think you all are overreacting about coverage being roled to Welker.I think Welkers targets will go up.And his production will be similar.I think this is a big bump to Tate and Hernandez and probably a slight hit to Brady.

 

[hootyhoo22]

It hurts his YAC more than his receptions. The defense will not be stretched. I think he will always be able to get open, but there will be more guys there to tackle him.However, his injury is already destroying his YPR and YAC. It can't be any worse than 8 YPR.His red zone utilization has no change. Passes to Moss now go to the TEs.

same thing i was thinking. welker is gonna get his catches. but they are gonna be short simple 5-10 yard slants and curl routes. no yac at all. if brandon tate can step up and take some of that coverage away. i see welker getting his 100 receptions again.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He would hurt him a lot if he were 100% healthy (in NFL relative terms), which he is not. Welker is not a number 1; he is a number 2 who needs a true number 1 to draw coverage to allow him to work underneath. Without that number 1, he is gonna have a very tough time putting up numbers even close to the last few years.

 

[Scooby1974]

just picked up edelman thinking he'll fill welker's role now that welker will be dealing with tighter coverage. i wonder if brandon tate is available, too...

Welker will stay in the slot. They will not move him outside. Most teams don't like to put their best DB on a slot receiver so I think you all are overreacting about coverage being roled to Welker.I think Welkers targets will go up.And his production will be similar.I think this is a big bump to Tate and Hernandez and probably a slight hit to Brady.

Agree on all accounts. I don't see Welker's roll changing from slot to "field stretcher" either. It seems difficult to double cover a guy like Welker in the slot without running DB's/LB's into each other. I think Tate's speed will draw some attention, Hernandez will see an uptick in targets as well. Welker will continue to take the short/slot/mid routes that he is so good at.Slight uptick for All NE receivers and backs. Decent hit to Brady.

 

[joffer]

All this increases for Welker is coverage. Whatever your personal opinion of Moss, the NFL's opinion was that he was uncoverable 1-1. He drew double teams against every team other than the Jets. Welker now gets 75% of that attention. Unless Hernandez finishes as the no.1 TE this season this really, really hurts Welker. I would sell him right now if I owned him.Keep in mind Welker has never played in NE without Moss.

75% of the attention never goes to the slot receiver.

 

[David Yudkin]

My biggest concern for Welker is still his health. The Pats have been using Welker on around 60% of offensive snaps vs. 90% last year. I would think that they will try to get him up to 75% of the snaps as time goes by this year, so his numbers would be down whether Moss was around or not.

Many of the routes Welker runs are not really far from the line of scrimmage, so I am not sure a team can double him on a WR screen or pop pass 5 yards off the line. It may impact him for longer routes, but he really hasn't been running many of those this year as of yet.

Welker will still eat some teams alive, but in other games he may not have as much room to maneuver and could see some additional coverage rolling his way or more guys in the box.

If teams dare the Pats to go deep, they will certainly take a shot at it. Best guess is Welker's numbers will be off some from last year but the Moss departure probably won't have a major impact the rest of the year.

 

[SwampDawg]

Target Hernandez like he was Finely, they'll use him like the Chargers use Gates to stretch the field down the middle and as a major Red Zone target.

 

[Txns8]

So Welker is done. Is he worth rostering?

 

[steelwind]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.

If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

 

[CalBear]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

You don't think that losing Randy Moss and having no running game might have some impact on the Pats offense? Maybe the offense sucked this week because the offense sucks.

 

[jude]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.

If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

You do? why? I have watched every play since Moss was dealt. THey aren't an explosive offense anymore. They grind out yards and live on the short pass. In the past, this would have been fantastic, but now it is hurting Welker because most of the offense is bunched up at the line of scrimmage creating traffic for Brady and compacted coverage for the defense. Point is, Welker isn;t the only guy looking for the short stuff anymore - all of the receivers run similiar routes, save hernandez who runs over the middle.

The Pats play Minny next week. They are a tough defense and the season is on the line (to a degree). I wouldn;t expect 159 and 1TD again, but I also wouldnt expect anything north of 250 and 2, at Maximum.

 

[atcdav]

I dont think Moss leaving helped or hurt Welker, but Woodhead's coming out has been deadly to Welker.

 

[bostonfred]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

Thanks to some ridiculous turnovers, the Patriots' average starting field position in the first half was inside the Chargers 40, and they got a couple long penalties. They went into the locker room with a big lead, then came out with an eight and a half minute drive for a touchdown. Then the Chargers kicked an onside kick. There really weren't a lot of opportunities to put up big numbers. In other words, the offense didn't struggle today. Brady has always been the first to take the blame when things go wrong, but he's not talking about his fantasy football numbers. He's talking about what happened at the end of the game when they decided to go for it on fourth down to seal the game, and failed to convert. The Pats only took one or two shots downfield, including a fake reverse flea flicker that was a little short intended for Branch, and some medium stuff to Branch and Hernandez. For the most part, they were taking the short and intermediate stuff, which is by design as San Diego does a great job at getting to the passer. BJGE was used quite a bit in the first half, but Woodhead was distracting the pass rush by taking a player out of the box. That's great against a team like San Diego, but against most teams I think BJGE will continue to be the pounder, and I think the Pats would like to be able to pound the ball, and will do so successfully against the softer run defenses on their schedule. If you're looking for a matchup RB who can play a handful of games for you, he's a decent fit.

 

[Txns8]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

Thanks to some ridiculous turnovers, the Patriots' average starting field position in the first half was inside the Chargers 40, and they got a couple long penalties. They went into the locker room with a big lead, then came out with an eight and a half minute drive for a touchdown. Then the Chargers kicked an onside kick. There really weren't a lot of opportunities to put up big numbers. In other words, the offense didn't struggle today. Brady has always been the first to take the blame when things go wrong, but he's not talking about his fantasy football numbers. He's talking about what happened at the end of the game when they decided to go for it on fourth down to seal the game, and failed to convert. The Pats only took one or two shots downfield, including a fake reverse flea flicker that was a little short intended for Branch, and some medium stuff to Branch and Hernandez. For the most part, they were taking the short and intermediate stuff, which is by design as San Diego does a great job at getting to the passer. BJGE was used quite a bit in the first half, but Woodhead was distracting the pass rush by taking a player out of the box. That's great against a team like San Diego, but against most teams I think BJGE will continue to be the pounder, and I think the Pats would like to be able to pound the ball, and will do so successfully against the softer run defenses on their schedule. If you're looking for a matchup RB who can play a handful of games for you, he's a decent fit.

Thanks for the analysis. I didn't see any of the game. Do you expect Welker to get his looks back to pre-Moss days?

 

[gianmarco]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

Thanks to some ridiculous turnovers, the Patriots' average starting field position in the first half was inside the Chargers 40, and they got a couple long penalties. They went into the locker room with a big lead, then came out with an eight and a half minute drive for a touchdown. Then the Chargers kicked an onside kick. There really weren't a lot of opportunities to put up big numbers. In other words, the offense didn't struggle today. Brady has always been the first to take the blame when things go wrong, but he's not talking about his fantasy football numbers. He's talking about what happened at the end of the game when they decided to go for it on fourth down to seal the game, and failed to convert. The Pats only took one or two shots downfield, including a fake reverse flea flicker that was a little short intended for Branch, and some medium stuff to Branch and Hernandez. For the most part, they were taking the short and intermediate stuff, which is by design as San Diego does a great job at getting to the passer. BJGE was used quite a bit in the first half, but Woodhead was distracting the pass rush by taking a player out of the box. That's great against a team like San Diego, but against most teams I think BJGE will continue to be the pounder, and I think the Pats would like to be able to pound the ball, and will do so successfully against the softer run defenses on their schedule. If you're looking for a matchup RB who can play a handful of games for you, he's a decent fit.

Thanks for the analysis. I didn't see any of the game. Do you expect Welker to get his looks back to pre-Moss days?

Welker wasn't around pre-Moss.

 

[switz]

Welker wasn't around pre-Moss.

Sure he was, just in Miami. I can see Welker putting up closer to 2006 than 2009 stats moving forward.

 

[Kiddnets]

Welker was on a torrid pace...looks like a correction. Losing Moss hurts but not this much. Last game was an abberation as the good analysis showed above. I still feel good with Welker as a #2 WR.

 

[Ghost Rider]

He would hurt him a lot if he were 100% healthy (in NFL relative terms), which he is not. Welker is not a number 1; he is a number 2 who needs a true number 1 to draw coverage to allow him to work underneath. Without that number 1, he is gonna have a very tough time putting up numbers even close to the last few years.

I stand by this post from three weeks ago.

 

[steelwind]

We need a David Yudkin input on this. He projected Welker as a high end WR2 after Moss' departure. The last two weeks do not show that at all.

 

[switz]

Before you look at Welker's 4 catch 25 yards and call him done, keep in mind that Brady only threw for 159 yards with 1 TD today. Welker was also open in the redzone and Brady overthrew what could have been a sure TD. SD sacked Brady 4 times. We all knew that SD has a tough defense and they showed it today at home.

If Brady threw for 300 yards with 3 TDs today with Welker's stats then I'd be concerned. But the entire offense struggled today and Brady even admitted that. I expect Brady to bounce back with a big offense display week 8.

You do? why? I have watched every play since Moss was dealt. THey aren't an explosive offense anymore. They grind out yards and live on the short pass. In the past, this would have been fantastic, but now it is hurting Welker because most of the offense is bunched up at the line of scrimmage creating traffic for Brady and compacted coverage for the defense. Point is, Welker isn;t the only guy looking for the short stuff anymore - all of the receivers run similiar routes, save hernandez who runs over the middle.

The Pats play Minny next week. They are a tough defense and the season is on the line (to a degree). I wouldn;t expect 159 and 1TD again, but I also wouldnt expect anything north of 250 and 2, at Maximum.

Brady isn't an explosive play QB. And before people start hating on me, I'm not saying he's not a great QB, just not a explosive, big play QB. In 2007 most of his long plays to Moss were only completed because Moss made great plays on the ball. Otherwise, Brady is a very accurate short to mid range passer, who gets a lot of his yards on YAC going all the way back to Troy Brown, and up to today with Welker.Expecting the Pats to be a big play, eye popping stat producing offense without Moss isn't reasonable. They'll win games, but a lot will be close, relatively low scoring affairs.

 

[David Yudkin]

We need a David Yudkin input on this. He projected Welker as a high end WR2 after Moss' departure. The last two weeks do not show that at all.

I still think over the latter part of the season Welker will produce as a high end WR2 in PPR leagues. He just needs to get into the game for more plays.A lot of weird stuff has happened with NE so far this year. They've had several return TDs (kicks, blocks, interceptions, etc.) that took the ball out of the offense's hands. That won't continue at the rate is has so far. Against the Chargers, SD imploded for turnovers that gave the Pats free points and a lead that skewed how the Pats functioned in the second half.At some point I think NE will get into shootout games as their defense will be exposed and give up a lot of yards/points. They won't be able to win throwing for 150 yards and not being able to rush the ball. Unless they have to, it doesn't appear that the Pats will be all that high flying and that they are returning to their roots of doing enough to win, not turning the ball over, and letting opponent's beat themselves. A.K.A. winning ugly.Part of the issue is that Welker, Branch, Woodhead, and the TEs are all operating in similar space and until the Pats show they can hit a few deeper routes, Welker will be the one that draws the most coverage.

 

[az_prof]

He would hurt him a lot if he were 100% healthy (in NFL relative terms), which he is not. Welker is not a number 1; he is a number 2 who needs a true number 1 to draw coverage to allow him to work underneath. Without that number 1, he is gonna have a very tough time putting up numbers even close to the last few years.

I stand by this post from three weeks ago.

This is how I see it too and his post-Moss performance so far verifies it. He will still have an occasional big game, but people so under estimate how Moss changes what the defense does. They just look at the stats line and they don't really watch how his presence affects the defensive alignment and strategy. It is no surprise that Harvin has come alive since Moss arrived in MN; he makes other players better because he forces defenses to account for him on every play.