If Denver gets Manning, I really don't think they trade Tebow. Here's why:
[*]only other QB rostered is Weber (undrafted FA). I would not feel comfortable putting the ball in the hands of a 36 yr old QB after he took a year off, without a legit back-up. Odds are good PM will miss some time in 2012, need to have a contingency plan. Don't even mention Gabbert in Denver. I will reach through the innernet and choke out anyone who suggests such a thing.
[*]Tebow has three years remaining on a very affordable rookie contract.
[*]IMO, it's better to have a back-up QB with a different style than the starter. can anyone legitimately run PM's offense? I think it would be better to change the offense if you have to change the QB. (if Tebow is the guy, I likewise don't think that the Broncos should have a college option QB as back-up).
[*]By the time Manning hangs it up, Tebow will have had a year or two to refine his game. I would expect major improvements in technique by then. Tebow as a legit pocket passer would be dominant.
[*]as of right now, there really isn't a market for his services. Jacksonville is the only team that wants him, right? I don't think there are a lot of teams clamoring for a QB with limited throwing abilities out there. Without competition, they low-ball Denver and offer a 2nd or 3rd. To me, that's just not worth it; I would hope EFX agrees.
[*]there would be a pretty significant fan back-lash if Tebow is let go.
I heard an interview with Cecil the other day where he says that the "trade Tebow" meme is something that sportswriters made up to get viewers and page-clicks. Let's face it - it's a pretty sexy story, and anytime you can bring drama to the Tebowites, they will eat it up.
Would Tebow be pissed that his starting gig gets yanked? No doubt. would he demand a trade? He might, but I don't think that's really in Tebow's nature. Would the Broncos grant that trade? I really don't think so; I don't think EFX wants to go through that again.