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What is the Money Line? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter smoker
- Start date
Fallerjw
Footballguy
I doubt you'll find it listed anywhere.
TommyGilmore
Footballguy
Did this guy's name get grandfathered in?
I don't think you're going to find one. Books typically make a team a 1 favorite for every 4% chance they have of winning the game over 50%. Thus if a team had a 54% chance, they'd make them a 1 pt favorite. 58% would make them a 2 point favorite.....so at a 22.5 pt favorite would mean NE has a 140% of winning the game, so they won't offer it.
It probably carries too much risk for them. Let's say they offer it at 100-1 who wouldn't throw $10 on the Jets and pray? On the other hand who in their right mind would wager $1000 to win $10 and bet on the Patriots? They'd end up with a lot of small bets on the Jets, and not enough large bets on the Patriots to cover themselves, and they'll end up in a situation where they'll be rooting for a team to win...and they aren't in the business of rooting.
That said, if you do find any one offering it, let me know so I can put some money down.
It probably carries too much risk for them. Let's say they offer it at 100-1 who wouldn't throw $10 on the Jets and pray? On the other hand who in their right mind would wager $1000 to win $10 and bet on the Patriots? They'd end up with a lot of small bets on the Jets, and not enough large bets on the Patriots to cover themselves, and they'll end up in a situation where they'll be rooting for a team to win...and they aren't in the business of rooting.
That said, if you do find any one offering it, let me know so I can put some money down.
mozzy84
Footballguy
damn -1750BoltBacker
Footballguy
What site is that?
Alias
Footballguy
probably pinnaclesports.com
Kuz
Footballguy
From Bookmaker...267 NY JETS +23½-110 o46½-110 +1300268 NEW ENGLAND -23½-110 u46½-110 -2100-2100.. wow..
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Yep, you were right. I was just curious if there was a ML on BOS/SAC in the NBA tonight. -1800.
Sopranos
Footballguy
Looks like a trap bet to me. If your 99% sure they will cover,they wont. I think the Jets show up and cover.
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Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
That's actually better than what LV has it as (on the NE side):NYJ +1100NE -1500damn -1750
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cstu
Footballguy
I'm thinking about doing a 10 point teaser with the Pats -13.5, Colts -.5 and Packers +.5.
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G
General Tso
Guest
You guys won't find lines now with the weather forecast the way it is.
Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I was wondering that myself. Maybe the line is already counting the weather in as a variable. Maybe with perfect weather this spread would be closer to 30.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
RUSF18
Footballguy
Tom Brady is gonna make some BANK.
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
RAIDERNATION said:
Well, he was right in part....The jump from 50 to 54% is about right for a 1 point line, but it isn't linear like he thinks it is.The real answer is closer to about 8% per 1 point of the odds that are left.... meaning that an "even" game is 50-50, a 1 point line is 54%-46%, and so on.The answers are in various tables around the internet, but typical odds are something like 60-40 for a 3-point line, 70-30 for a 7-point game, and about 80%-20% for a 10-point spread.That closely approximates taking away (92%) or adding (108%) for the odds of the underdog or favorite to win for each one-point move from 50%. Doing that math gets you within about 3-4% of the chart values for games that have lines at 10 points or less.Thanks. I know it's not linear, you can't possibly having a team with a 140% chance of winning a game. As you move up in pts the win % increase/decrease is going to decrease. So you start at 4% for the 1st point, the 2nd point results in lets say 3.75%, then 3.5% ect. (these numbers I know aren't correct, but i think you see what i'm saying) I was using this as a general guiding principle, not an exact measure. And yes, it is a 8% swing, but I was only talking about 1 way, so it's a 4% increase or decrease.RAIDERNATION said:Well, he was right in part....The jump from 50 to 54% is about right for a 1 point line, but it isn't linear like he thinks it is.The real answer is closer to about 8% per 1 point of the odds that are left.... meaning that an "even" game is 50-50, a 1 point line is 54%-46%, and so on.The answers are in various tables around the internet, but typical odds are something like 60-40 for a 3-point line, 70-30 for a 7-point game, and about 80%-20% for a 10-point spread.That closely approximates taking away (92%) or adding (108%) for the odds of the underdog or favorite to win for each one-point move from 50%. Doing that math gets you within about 3-4% of the chart values for games that have lines at 10 points or less.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
That's a weak ML. A spread of 500 is garbage.Carib has Tampa Bay at -1000,and they are only 14 point favorites.This book has the NYJ as a 23 point UD and only offering + 1250 with a $5 spread ??fook that..
