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What is your tight end strategy? (1 Viewer)

Every single team I own regardless of format Crockett Gillmore has found himself on each one of them. I even joked about it on Twitter and got a notification minutes later that he favorited the tweet. Outside of waivers in dynasty I've drafted him with 1 of my last 2 picks ranging from 20-24 all leagues minimum 12 teams.

 
Cam newton isn't an elite passer, but he's a good qb who likes big targets. Who do they have besides Olsen? The passing offense flows through Greg olsen. He's seconds only to gronk. Olsen had almost 1000 yards and 6 tds. A modest increase in yards, and a couple of the tds left behind by Benjamin, and he pretty quickly approaches the 1124/12 that gronk put up last year but several rounds later.

 
So far I've just been waiting until the teen rounds and taking Dwayne Allen.

I like Owen Daniels also though. Somebody will catch some passes from Manning after Thomas/Sanders do.

 
In my last draft, Cameron, Delanie were taken in the 8th of 12 team draft. Eifert went a few picks after my mid 9th round pick. So to secure one of Delanie, Cameron, Witten makes sense. Even Eifert if you like him more.

I don't feel comfortable with Ertz and Rudolph as my TE 1. Ertz maybe as a backup TE but Rudolph seems like a waste of a pick if you take 2nd TE for where he goes. I can see why some would take a chance on Watson but there is risk there.

I got Dwayne Allen in the 14/15th rounds.

 
Cam newton isn't an elite passer, but he's a good qb who likes big targets. Who do they have besides Olsen? The passing offense flows through Greg olsen. He's seconds only to gronk. Olsen had almost 1000 yards and 6 tds. A modest increase in yards, and a couple of the tds left behind by Benjamin, and he pretty quickly approaches the 1124/12 that gronk put up last year but several rounds later.
Olsen had 4 catches for 48 yards on something like 8 targets in under a half in preseason game 3. That doesn't include a drop, and a gain called back for a penalty. I know, you can't count those, but you can look at the targets and read it as early proof that Cam is going to target Olsen all day every day.

 
In my last draft, Cameron, Delanie were taken in the 8th of 12 team draft. Eifert went a few picks after my mid 9th round pick. So to secure one of Delanie, Cameron, Witten makes sense. Even Eifert if you like him more.

I don't feel comfortable with Ertz and Rudolph as my TE 1. Ertz maybe as a backup TE but Rudolph seems like a waste of a pick if you take 2nd TE for where he goes. I can see why some would take a chance on Watson but there is risk there.

I got Dwayne Allen in the 14/15th rounds.
:goodposting:

We're on the same wavelength. Walker/Witten are at the bottom of my acceptable TEs. I'd love to get Olsen or Kelce, but won't reach for them. I'd love to get Bennett in the 6th or 7th, and thought he was a sneaky good play even before White's injury, which only increases his value. I think Eifert and Cameron are the two middle-class TEs with the most upside (but Cameron's injury risk scares me). And I want no part of Ertz or Rudolph. The former is basically last year's Kelce with less talent and a bigger road block to increased snaps, and the latter has a track record of flashing but never putting together a full, healthy season.

 
Draft Gronk if he falls to me in the 2nd, no questions asked. It says so on my cheat sheet..

If the above doesn't happen then I'll just target Eifert, ASJ (and possibly Camerson) everywhere else. If were going slightly deeper I very much like Reed and to an extent like V. Davis.

 
Why is everyone scared off of Jordan Reed? Super injury prone I understand - but WAS is going to use the TE position a lot. Not saying TE will dominate but likely target #3 with a relatively high % of targets.

Why not draft him very late and play him until he gets hurt? Should be a TE1 until that time.

 
I like the combo of 11th-ish round: Daniels/Rudolph/Gates+ 14th-ish; Sef-Jenkins/Allen/Fleener/Miller.

Also want to offer my sympathies to Tim Wright. Traded by same team two years in a row.

 
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I don't like taking Gates as he misses the first four games and it is possible Ladarius starts or takes away some of his production. Gates as my TE 2 maybe not my starter.

 
Why is everyone scared off of Jordan Reed? Super injury prone I understand - but WAS is going to use the TE position a lot. Not saying TE will dominate but likely target #3 with a relatively high % of targets.

Why not draft him very late and play him until he gets hurt? Should be a TE1 until that time.
Yeah, I'm actually pretty confused as to why he's ~TE20 in PPR. If he stays healthy I think he has a good a chance as anyone to crack the top 12. He had an absolutely insane rookie season (could have been historic) but has been plagued by injuries since. Still, as a dart throw I really like his upside.

 
Injury prone, suspended, high upside, could be targeted a fair amount. These are things you say about guys who might be terrible. It's great if you get one of these guys and they're a steal at their price, but taking a shot on Ladarius green when he's burnt owners so, so badly before is bad business.

First of all, you're spending a roster spot on green. But you're also spending a spot on someone else, because you don't feel comfortable putting him in your lineup. Or if you try to run with just a guy like green and he busts as spectacularly as he did last year, you have to use another roster spot and possibly good waiver priority to get another tight end later. And it's hard to find a good tight end on waivers.

If you do roll with green, and this is finally the year, then great news. You b probably have two good tight ends on your roster. But unless one of them is spectacular, you're never going to cut the other one because it's hard to tell if you've got stud tight end or larry donnell, who burst into the scene, flamed out, and then was on the bench when he finally performed again. I'd bet most Donnell owners were worse off for owning him. So you end up playing tebc for a while, waiting to see if your Ladarius green is good or just short term good. So you're leaving points on the bench and playing guessing games trying to figure out which te will score a touchdown this week.

Now take a stud tight end. Doesn't have to be gronk or graham - I happen to really like Olsen but whatever. You probably don't spend anything on a backup or if you do it's a guy you can cut later if you need to. It probably cost you a pick where you would have taken a good running back or receiver, so you use that extra roster spot on another player at that position. Now if your cheap receiver or running back busts, you just keep churning that roster. And if you have a successful guy, you don't have to leave him on your bench because unlike te, you usually have to start several of them. There's a ton of good waiver picks at rb and wr, so you don't have to waste high priority or faab on a scrub just because you need a backup right now. It gives you so much more flexibility to have a good te - as long as it's someone who gets good yards and receptions.

The other thing that gets me is that there's a couple big tier drops at receiver and running back. After the top 10 or so receivers there's another 20 or so and then another group of upside guys and then the true flyers. After the top rbs go, then it's the rbbc guys and then the true backups. The good tight ends go near the top of the second tier rbs and wrs. I hate taking the guy at the top of the next tier down. You get the same value a round later. But top tight ends are scarce, and taking one in the 4th and a wr in the 6th usually means getting a higher tier te and same tier wr as if you went wr in the 4th and te in the 6th.

And out of all those guys, Olsen has the best chance to crack into the gronk tier. I get the kelce love, but Olsen has a higher floor and could pick up some of those Benjamin yards and touchdowns without really improving as a player. Kelce can only emerge by improving as a player. Olsen is a much safer pick imo.

 
I own Witten, not sure how comfortable I am with it. If this was a couple years ago even I'd be happy but I look at my WW options (Eifert, Ertz, Daniels mostly) and I always have those second thoughts.

Maybe I'll just put a trade offer in on Olsen.

 
I own Witten, not sure how comfortable I am with it. If this was a couple years ago even I'd be happy but I look at my WW options (Eifert, Ertz, Daniels mostly) and I always have those second thoughts.

Maybe I'll just put a trade offer in on Olsen.
Cowboys will need to throw a LOT this year. I think Witten is a safe bet for his usual decent production yet again

 
Injury prone, suspended, high upside, could be targeted a fair amount. These are things you say about guys who might be terrible. It's great if you get one of these guys and they're a steal at their price, but taking a shot on Ladarius green when he's burnt owners so, so badly before is bad business.
This is what I did two years ago on Julius Thomas and last year on Kelce.

Worked out great before.

This year I'm in on Green ... after all, it's the color of you know what.

 
I've been wrong before, but I'm starting to get a nice feeling about Scott Chandler. Gets to play with a real QB for once, with a quality OC. I think he can play alongside Gronk, rather than just being a straight backup. Caught a nice throw from Brady vs the Panthers in preseason. Supposedly works on the side a lot with Brady and Gronk. No more Tim Wright (not that he was a consistent option). LaFell slow to recover. I dunno. With all the darts and crapshoots at the TE position, I could see the 6'7" Chandler making a little noise with Brady. Not saying top 5 by any means, but he is definitely a bit of an under-the-radar type who might put up better numbers than expected.

New England did rush to sign him just 2 days after the Bills released him.

 
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I had planned on waiting but Kelce was still there with the 9th pick of the 5th round (14 team league) so I grabbed him. Also grabbed Gates late.

 
On one team, I have Thomas and Gates. With the news about Thomas, I went and scooped up Ladarius Green. I'm pretty well protected there now. I don't know what Green will do, but he should be serviceable for a weeks until either Gates or Thomas comes back.

 
You don't need to wait to the 10th to take a TE, from my experience Eifert could be taken before you pick in the 9th. Sure you may want to grab an extra WR or RB but I think there is a dropoff between Eifert group to an Ertz, Rudolph and any other TE.

 
You don't need to wait to the 10th to take a TE, from my experience Eifert could be taken before you pick in the 9th. Sure you may want to grab an extra WR or RB but I think there is a dropoff between Eifert group to an Ertz, Rudolph and any other TE.
You're that big of a fan of Eifert?

IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.

 
IMO, the benefit of taking Gronk is not having to roster so many. If you wait you have invest bench spots & hope you can land a top 10 guy.

Here are a few guys on my teams.

Dwayne Allen

Jordan Reed

Rich Rodgers

 
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IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting

 
IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting
I'll snag one of the top 5 if the value is there, I recently got Olsen in my 12 team .5 PPR at 5.10. But I'm not going to be upset if I miss out on one of the top TEs.

Witten

Walker

Ertz

Rudolph

Thomas

Allen

Eifert

You can pretty much take them in any order and I wouldn't have an issue there. Thomas slides because of his injury, but he could definitely play like a top 5 TE when he comes back. And I didn't even mention guys like Miller, Daniels, Green/Gates, ASJ, or Hill. TE is top heavy for sure, but after that, there's no real separation.

 
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Get Gronk which allows you to start a top 10 WR in the TE slot. It basically allows you to start Julio Jones in the same spot others are starting Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert

 
Based on my work league draft last night, my TE strategy is "panic".

Took Olsen at 4.03 in a 12-team PPR league.
My draft dominator is suggesting that I take Olsen as soon as the late 2nd round in ppr. 4th sounds just about right, you probably got a steal. As we all know, there are many 'upside' wrs and rbs being taken in this range and many will bust. There is literally no way Olsen busts unless he gets hurt. He will score anywhere between 8 - 20 points every week in ppr.

 
I ended up completely punting on the position in a 14th teamer. Gonna have to make due with whoever the Chargers TE is unless someone pops up on waivers.

 
IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting
I'll snag one of the top 5 if the value is there, I recently got Olsen in my 12 team .5 PPR at 5.10. But I'm not going to be upset if I miss out on one of the top TEs.

Witten

Walker

Ertz

Rudolph

Thomas

Allen

Eifert

You can pretty much take them in any order and I wouldn't have an issue there. Thomas slides because of his injury, but he could definitely play like a top 5 TE when he comes back. And I didn't even mention guys like Miller, Daniels, Green/Gates, ASJ, or Hill. TE is top heavy for sure, but after that, there's no real separation.
I feel like people say this every year, but I don't buy it. Of that list, I would put Walker and Eifert way above everyone else, Walker because he's more consistent, Eifert because he has a higher upside.

Among the rest of that group, I see big names with inflated ADPs (Witten, Thomas), TD-dependent guys/injury risks who won't put up numbers (Allen, Rudolph) and Ertz, who has too much competition for snaps.

Maybe I'm wrong on some or all of those guys. But I think you have to make those determinations. I don't think you can just assume they're all basically the same.

 
IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting
I'll snag one of the top 5 if the value is there, I recently got Olsen in my 12 team .5 PPR at 5.10. But I'm not going to be upset if I miss out on one of the top TEs.

Witten

Walker

Ertz

Rudolph

Thomas

Allen

Eifert

You can pretty much take them in any order and I wouldn't have an issue there. Thomas slides because of his injury, but he could definitely play like a top 5 TE when he comes back. And I didn't even mention guys like Miller, Daniels, Green/Gates, ASJ, or Hill. TE is top heavy for sure, but after that, there's no real separation.
I feel like people say this every year, but I don't buy it. Of that list, I would put Walker and Eifert way above everyone else, Walker because he's more consistent, Eifert because he has a higher upside.

Among the rest of that group, I see big names with inflated ADPs (Witten, Thomas), TD-dependent guys/injury risks who won't put up numbers (Allen, Rudolph) and Ertz, who has too much competition for snaps.

Maybe I'm wrong on some or all of those guys. But I think you have to make those determinations. I don't think you can just assume they're all basically the same.
So Eifert, who has done nothing so far in his career should be way above the others? Why?

I could see saying Walker is the best of the rest, but he has a rookie at QB, so he could see inconsistent play.

Sure, Witten is older but he's still a viable option in the passing game for Dallas. And outside of Dez, there aren't really any better options.

Thomas is a new system and his battling injuries already, but when he plays he could see a healthy amount of targets in that offense.

Ertiz is another banged up, but he has just as much upside as Eifert, IMO.

Rudolph has good upside, but can he stay healthy?

Pretty much all those TEs all have question marks surrounding them. There's no slam dunk among the group for success.

 
Have not been afraid to spend a little more to get Gronk or Olsen. So much positional advantage at a tough to roster spot.

 
Get Gronk which allows you to start a top 10 WR in the TE slot. It basically allows you to start Julio Jones in the same spot others are starting Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert
Of course you're then starting Marvin Jones in the same spot others are starting Julio Jones.

 
Get Gronk which allows you to start a top 10 WR in the TE slot. It basically allows you to start Julio Jones in the same spot others are starting Delanie Walker and Tyler Eifert
Of course you're then starting Marvin Jones in the same spot others are starting Julio Jones.
1) I take a lot more backup receivers than backup tight ends, so it's a lot easier to hit on one of your late wr picks than one of your late te picks. 2) if you're weak at wr, you tend to use a committee approach, and playing the hot hand at wr can be more productive than playing one guy all year simply because a guy like sanu is more valuable when Marvin Jones or aj green is out and is never going to start for you when they aren't.

3) 500/4 a replacement level te and 900/5 is a replacement level wr, so getting a te who can score close to your wr1 is a lot more valuable even if you never get a "hot" receiver.

 
Dwayne Allen was having a nice year till injuries kicked in. Doesn't hurt being in a high powered offense with Andrew Luck throwing him the ball. I waited on te and scooped up the Walker/Allen combo and feel pretty good about my situation.

 
IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting
I'll snag one of the top 5 if the value is there, I recently got Olsen in my 12 team .5 PPR at 5.10. But I'm not going to be upset if I miss out on one of the top TEs.

Witten

Walker

Ertz

Rudolph

Thomas

Allen

Eifert

You can pretty much take them in any order and I wouldn't have an issue there. Thomas slides because of his injury, but he could definitely play like a top 5 TE when he comes back. And I didn't even mention guys like Miller, Daniels, Green/Gates, ASJ, or Hill. TE is top heavy for sure, but after that, there's no real separation.
I feel like people say this every year, but I don't buy it. Of that list, I would put Walker and Eifert way above everyone else, Walker because he's more consistent, Eifert because he has a higher upside.

Among the rest of that group, I see big names with inflated ADPs (Witten, Thomas), TD-dependent guys/injury risks who won't put up numbers (Allen, Rudolph) and Ertz, who has too much competition for snaps.

Maybe I'm wrong on some or all of those guys. But I think you have to make those determinations. I don't think you can just assume they're all basically the same.
So Eifert, who has done nothing so far in his career should be way above the others? Why?

I could see saying Walker is the best of the rest, but he has a rookie at QB, so he could see inconsistent play.

Sure, Witten is older but he's still a viable option in the passing game for Dallas. And outside of Dez, there aren't really any better options.

Thomas is a new system and his battling injuries already, but when he plays he could see a healthy amount of targets in that offense.

Ertiz is another banged up, but he has just as much upside as Eifert, IMO.

Rudolph has good upside, but can he stay healthy?

Pretty much all those TEs all have question marks surrounding them. There's no slam dunk among the group for success.
Well, like I said, my post was more about the necessity of making those determinations then the determinations themselves, but since you asked ...

I like Witten, but he's on the downside of his career, and I don't think his ADP properly reflects that.

With Eifert/Ertz, I don't see how you can ignore the fact that one is an undisputed TE1 and the other has to share snaps with Brent Celek. Also, it's true that Eifert hasn't done it yet, but that's because he was injured. Ertz had his chance to emerge last year, and he didn't, because Kelly really likes Celek for his blocking. So if you're betting on an Ertz breakout, you're betting not just on his talent, but on his situation changing. (If they switched teams tomorrow, I would be saying the exact same thing about Eifert.)

Yes, they all have questions marks, and none of them are slam dunks, but that's true of everyone in fantasy, especially when you get later in the draft. (If they were slam dunks, they wouldn't be going later in the draft). My point is, it's silly to just throw your hands up and say it's impossible to figure it out. If it's Week 13 and you're asking me whether to start Clay Harbor or Ryan Griffin, yeah, that's a crapshoot. But over an entire season, there is absolutely a difference between TE6 and TE15, and any shark should be spending his time trying to figure that difference out.

 
IMO, once the top 5 of Gronk, Graham, Olsen, Kelce and Bennett are off the board, everyone else is pretty equal. I don't see a huge difference in any of the guys from TE6 to TE12.
This. I'm waiting
I'll snag one of the top 5 if the value is there, I recently got Olsen in my 12 team .5 PPR at 5.10. But I'm not going to be upset if I miss out on one of the top TEs.

Witten

Walker

Ertz

Rudolph

Thomas

Allen

Eifert

You can pretty much take them in any order and I wouldn't have an issue there. Thomas slides because of his injury, but he could definitely play like a top 5 TE when he comes back. And I didn't even mention guys like Miller, Daniels, Green/Gates, ASJ, or Hill. TE is top heavy for sure, but after that, there's no real separation.
I feel like people say this every year, but I don't buy it. Of that list, I would put Walker and Eifert way above everyone else, Walker because he's more consistent, Eifert because he has a higher upside.

Among the rest of that group, I see big names with inflated ADPs (Witten, Thomas), TD-dependent guys/injury risks who won't put up numbers (Allen, Rudolph) and Ertz, who has too much competition for snaps.

Maybe I'm wrong on some or all of those guys. But I think you have to make those determinations. I don't think you can just assume they're all basically the same.
So Eifert, who has done nothing so far in his career should be way above the others? Why?

I could see saying Walker is the best of the rest, but he has a rookie at QB, so he could see inconsistent play.

Sure, Witten is older but he's still a viable option in the passing game for Dallas. And outside of Dez, there aren't really any better options.

Thomas is a new system and his battling injuries already, but when he plays he could see a healthy amount of targets in that offense.

Ertiz is another banged up, but he has just as much upside as Eifert, IMO.

Rudolph has good upside, but can he stay healthy?

Pretty much all those TEs all have question marks surrounding them. There's no slam dunk among the group for success.
Well, like I said, my post was more about the necessity of making those determinations then the determinations themselves, but since you asked ...

I like Witten, but he's on the downside of his career, and I don't think his ADP properly reflects that.

With Eifert/Ertz, I don't see how you can ignore the fact that one is an undisputed TE1 and the other has to share snaps with Brent Celek. Also, it's true that Eifert hasn't done it yet, but that's because he was injured. Ertz had his chance to emerge last year, and he didn't, because Kelly really likes Celek for his blocking. So if you're betting on an Ertz breakout, you're betting not just on his talent, but on his situation changing. (If they switched teams tomorrow, I would be saying the exact same thing about Eifert.)

Yes, they all have questions marks, and none of them are slam dunks, but that's true of everyone in fantasy, especially when you get later in the draft. (If they were slam dunks, they wouldn't be going later in the draft). My point is, it's silly to just throw your hands up and say it's impossible to figure it out. If it's Week 13 and you're asking me whether to start Clay Harbor or Ryan Griffin, yeah, that's a crapshoot. But over an entire season, there is absolutely a difference between TE6 and TE15, and any shark should be spending his time trying to figure that difference out.
So you can without a doubt say that Tyler Eifert will finish in the top 6? I can't. Would it shock me if he did? No.

To me, it's all about trying to find value in the draft. If you really like Eifert, then sure I'd have no problem taking him before those other guys. But for me, there just isn't a huge differential between them.

Based on Dodds' PPR TE projections, the difference between TE6 and TE12 is 1.3ppg. So if you're telling me I can get almost equal production from those 6 guys, why wouldn't I just wait and take one of the 6?

 
In my last draft, Cameron, Delanie were taken in the 8th of 12 team draft. Eifert went a few picks after my mid 9th round pick. So to secure one of Delanie, Cameron, Witten makes sense. Even Eifert if you like him more.

I don't feel comfortable with Ertz and Rudolph as my TE 1. Ertz maybe as a backup TE but Rudolph seems like a waste of a pick if you take 2nd TE for where he goes. I can see why some would take a chance on Watson but there is risk there.

I got Dwayne Allen in the 14/15th rounds.
:goodposting:

We're on the same wavelength. Walker/Witten are at the bottom of my acceptable TEs. I'd love to get Olsen or Kelce, but won't reach for them. I'd love to get Bennett in the 6th or 7th, and thought he was a sneaky good play even before White's injury, which only increases his value. I think Eifert and Cameron are the two middle-class TEs with the most upside (but Cameron's injury risk scares me). And I want no part of Ertz or Rudolph. The former is basically last year's Kelce with less talent and a bigger road block to increased snaps, and the latter has a track record of flashing but never putting together a full, healthy season.
I agree. This was my strategy for my 12 team PPR draft last night. Got Walker in the 8th and then Eifert towards the end. Hoping for solid production.

 
Take Julius Thomas and watch the waiver wire like a hawk every single f'n day for his inevitable injury replacement (just like this year). Sigh.

 
5th/6th

Olsen

Bennett

7th-9th

Cameron

Delanie

Witten

Julius

9th/10th+

Ertz

Eifert

Rudolph
I don't see any reason to grab one of your 7-9th round TEs as the ones you list afterwards (and a few others) have at least an even chance of outperforming those guys.
Yes, those guys I mentioned never finished in the top 10 recently. Witten in the past got a good amount of targets which increases his floor. Delanie was a top 9 TE last year and Mariota if he is legit will probably rely on him.
Agree that with Witten you're probably paying a premium for past performance. I think Walker will improve with better QB play, especially since rookie QBs are likely to latch on to their most reliable options. Cameron is a big wildcard this year, but I like his situation.

But obviously these are all subjective opinions about individual guys. I read the OP as being about TE strategy in general. And my approach is to think less about expected value and more about mental accounting. I don't want to waste time stressing over TEs, I don't want to have to waste a roster spot on a second TE. If that reduces my expected return slightly, I'm OK with that. But I don't even think it does, because I think picking lower-tier TEs is a complete crapshoot.

My calculation is that picking a TE somewhere between the 5th and 7th round is my best bet for reducing that mental accounting without having to sacrifice a top pick. No strategy is foolproof, and this one certainly hasn't been for me (don't get me started on the time I bet on an "undervalued" Antonio Gates). But overall I think it's worked out reasonably well.
I think Jason Witten is worth the price of a 7th to 9th round pick.

According to MFL ADP since August Jason Witten has been the 86th player drafted on average.

Here are the players being drafted 10 spots ahead and after Witten:

76. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
77. Brady, Tom NEP QB
78. Jackson, Vincent TBB WR
79. Newton, Cam CAR QB
80. Thomas, Julius JAC TE
81. Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB
82. Wallace, Mike MIN WR
83. Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB
84. Mosley, C.J. BAL LB
85. Ivory, Chris NYJ RB
86. Witten, Jason DAL TE
87. Johnson, Charles MIN WR
88. Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
89. Cruz, Victor NYG WR
90. Quinn, Robert STL DE
91. Bell, Joique DET RB
92. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
93. Wagner, Bobby SEA LB
94. Cameron, Jordan MIA TE
95. White, Roddy ATL WR
96. Coleman, Tevin ATL RB

Dallas Cowboys offense over the last 3 seasons:

2014 1014 total plays 476 pass attempts (47%) 508 rushing attempts (50%)
2013 957 total plays 586 pass attempts (61%) 336 rushing attempts (35%)
2012 1049 total plays 658 pass attempts (63%) 355 rushing attempts (34%)

Jason Witten

2014 age 32 90 targets (18.9% of targets) 64 receptions (71% catch rate)
2013 age 31 111 targets (18.9% of targets) 73 receptions (66% catch rate)
2012 age 30 147 targets (22.3% of targets) 110 receptions (75% catch rate)

So you see Jason Witten still had the same percentage of passing targets last season as he did in 2013. The Cowboys just threw the ball a lot less than they have been the previous two seasons.

Without Murray I would not expect the Cowboys to be able to run the ball nearly as much as they did in 2014.

If the Cowboys throw the ball 573 times in 2015 (this is the average pass attempts over the last 3 seasons) and Witten maintains his 18.9% of those targets this means Witten should see 108 targets. With a career catch rate of 70.7% this would be 76 receptions.

Witten is 33 years old now. He does not look like he has lost a step to me however having just watched him recently against the Vikings. Other elite TE such as Gates and Gonzalez have been able to maintain their performance pretty well in their age 33 season and beyond that.
Good work. That makes me feel good about Witten should he fall to me.

 
I almost never draft two tight ends, but I ended up with Cameron and Daniels in my main league and I'm ok with it.

 

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