5th/6th
Olsen
Bennett
7th-9th
Cameron
Delanie
Witten
Julius
9th/10th+
Ertz
Eifert
Rudolph
I don't see any reason to grab one of your 7-9th round TEs as the ones you list afterwards (and a few others) have at least an even chance of outperforming those guys.
Yes, those guys I mentioned never finished in the top 10 recently. Witten in the past got a good amount of targets which increases his floor. Delanie was a top 9 TE last year and Mariota if he is legit will probably rely on him.
Agree that with Witten you're probably paying a premium for past performance. I think Walker will improve with better QB play, especially since rookie QBs are likely to latch on to their most reliable options. Cameron is a big wildcard this year, but I like his situation.
But obviously these are all subjective opinions about individual guys. I read the OP as being about TE strategy in general. And my approach is to think less about expected value and more about mental accounting. I don't want to waste time stressing over TEs, I don't want to have to waste a roster spot on a second TE. If that reduces my expected return slightly, I'm OK with that. But I don't even think it does, because I think picking lower-tier TEs is a complete crapshoot.
My calculation is that picking a TE somewhere between the 5th and 7th round is my best bet for reducing that mental accounting without having to sacrifice a top pick. No strategy is foolproof, and this one certainly hasn't been for me (don't get me started on the time I bet on an "undervalued" Antonio Gates). But overall I think it's worked out reasonably well.
I think Jason Witten is worth the price of a 7th to 9th round pick.
According to
MFL ADP since August Jason Witten has been the 86th player drafted on average.
Here are the players being drafted 10 spots ahead and after Witten:
76. Bernard, Giovani CIN RB
77. Brady, Tom NEP QB
78. Jackson, Vincent TBB WR
79. Newton, Cam CAR QB
80. Thomas, Julius JAC TE
81. Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB
82. Wallace, Mike MIN WR
83. Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB
84. Mosley, C.J. BAL LB
85. Ivory, Chris NYJ RB
86. Witten, Jason DAL TE
87. Johnson, Charles MIN WR
88. Seahawks, Seattle SEA Def
89. Cruz, Victor NYG WR
90. Quinn, Robert STL DE
91. Bell, Joique DET RB
92. Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR
93. Wagner, Bobby SEA LB
94. Cameron, Jordan MIA TE
95. White, Roddy ATL WR
96. Coleman, Tevin ATL RB
Dallas Cowboys offense over the last 3 seasons:
2014 1014 total plays 476 pass attempts (47%) 508 rushing attempts (50%)
2013 957 total plays 586 pass attempts (61%) 336 rushing attempts (35%)
2012 1049 total plays 658 pass attempts (63%) 355 rushing attempts (34%)
Jason Witten
2014 age 32 90 targets (18.9% of targets) 64 receptions (71% catch rate)
2013 age 31 111 targets (18.9% of targets) 73 receptions (66% catch rate)
2012 age 30 147 targets (22.3% of targets) 110 receptions (75% catch rate)
So you see Jason Witten still had the same percentage of passing targets last season as he did in 2013. The Cowboys just threw the ball a lot less than they have been the previous two seasons.
Without Murray I would not expect the Cowboys to be able to run the ball nearly as much as they did in 2014.
If the Cowboys throw the ball 573 times in 2015 (this is the average pass attempts over the last 3 seasons) and Witten maintains his 18.9% of those targets this means Witten should see 108 targets. With a career catch rate of 70.7% this would be 76 receptions.
Witten is 33 years old now. He does not look like he has lost a step to me however having just watched him recently against the Vikings. Other elite TE such as Gates and Gonzalez have been able to maintain their performance pretty well in their age 33 season and beyond that.