What percentage of all NFL passes (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Feel free to add in commentary/reasoning as well.

 

[Eggs]

I would guess that it's 50%ish since he should already have a pre-snap read giving him a good idea where the ball is going before the snap. Defenses shifting or disguising their coverage would then dictate which read was chosen.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

I'd think the 50 -59% range. Many teams only have 1 or 2 elite receivers who the QB looks at, and barrin ga shut down corner or D, the majority of them go their way.

I'm sure that if you assess pass attempts vs. WR targets, more often than not the #1 guy is being targeted about half the time. Then the 2nd-3rd option, and then the dumpoff to a RB.

Would probably be a pretty interesting research project. Example like Mannings attempts vs. Harrison's targets. something along those lines.

ETA: And this does not count the Randy Ratio of the Vikings days, that may throw this off a bit

 

[chris1969]

I'm thinking less than 30%. Defenses are so good at disguising their coverage that often the pre-read doesn't pan out. Also the first read isn't the #1 Receiver in most cases. The first read is usually an underneath or quick route, the routes the #1's run usually take longer to open up so they are a second or third read. Just my guess, but if I new the QB was hitting the #1 read much more than a third of the time, It would make film study so much easier and I would be jumping that route constantly.

 

[trader jake]

Voted 70-79%

Most quarterbacks reads the coverage at the line of scrimmage and, knowing the play called in the huddle, he should have a good idea of where the ball will go pre snap. 25% of the time that 1st option in his head is blanketed, falls down, runs the wrong route, or the coverage is different than what he read presnap and he changes to his second, third, etc options.

I will say that this percentage goes down the better the QB. I would guess Manning, Brady, and Brees go to someone other than their 1st option a higher percentage of the time because of their ability to process information quickly.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

Voted 70-79%Most quarterbacks reads the coverage at the line of scrimmage and, knowing the play called in the huddle, he should have a good idea of where the ball will go pre snap. 25% of the time that 1st option in his head is blanketed, falls down, runs the wrong route, or the coverage is different than what he read presnap and he changes to his second, third, etc options.I will say that this percentage goes down the better the QB. I would guess Manning, Brady, and Brees go to someone other than their 1st option a higher percentage of the time because of their ability to process information quickly.

I'm confused, you give reasons why the #1 option wouldn't be thrown to as often, and then voted nearly 80%

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I voted 70-79%

a) Lots of average QBs in the league

b) Plenty of passes are quick, to a RB or WR on screens

c) I'm assuming 1st read means first place the QB looks after the snap -- not necessarily the first option for the play when it's on the blackboard. Guessing QBs rule out some #1 options during their pre-snap read and never look that way

 

[trader jake]

Voted 70-79%Most quarterbacks reads the coverage at the line of scrimmage and, knowing the play called in the huddle, he should have a good idea of where the ball will go pre snap. 25% of the time that 1st option in his head is blanketed, falls down, runs the wrong route, or the coverage is different than what he read presnap and he changes to his second, third, etc options.I will say that this percentage goes down the better the QB. I would guess Manning, Brady, and Brees go to someone other than their 1st option a higher percentage of the time because of their ability to process information quickly.

I'm confused, you give reasons why the #1 option wouldn't be thrown to as often, and then voted nearly 80%

I gave reasones why it isn't higher than 3/4 of the time. Again, the better the QB the lower the percentage. Too bad there are a lot of really bad QB's in the NFL. If it was a lower percentage I would see QB's looking off safeties more than a few times a game.Second, the amount of pressure that defenses put on quarterback also limits the number of times that a QB will have time to go to a secondary receiver.Third, if the play called in the huddle is a poor one against the shown coverage the QB is more likely to audible to another play in order to target the "1st option" because he knows that is his best chance for success. Those voting less than 50% are giving your average NFL QB way too much credit.

 

[chris1969]

I voted 70-79%a) Lots of average QBs in the leagueb) Plenty of passes are quick, to a RB or WR on screensc) I'm assuming 1st read means first place the QB looks after the snap -- not necessarily the first option for the play when it's on the blackboard. Guessing QBs rule out some #1 options during their pre-snap read and never look that way

That's a good point the pre-snap read can change the first read. Depending on the crteria used that could cause a huge swing in percentages.

 

[chris1969]

The poll results are already looking like a bell curve.

 

[NYCGangGreen]

Voted 70-79%Most quarterbacks reads the coverage at the line of scrimmage and, knowing the play called in the huddle, he should have a good idea of where the ball will go pre snap. 25% of the time that 1st option in his head is blanketed, falls down, runs the wrong route, or the coverage is different than what he read presnap and he changes to his second, third, etc options.I will say that this percentage goes down the better the QB. I would guess Manning, Brady, and Brees go to someone other than their 1st option a higher percentage of the time because of their ability to process information quickly.

I'm confused, you give reasons why the #1 option wouldn't be thrown to as often, and then voted nearly 80%

I gave reasones why it isn't higher than 3/4 of the time. Again, the better the QB the lower the percentage. Too bad there are a lot of really bad QB's in the NFL. If it was a lower percentage I would see QB's looking off safeties more than a few times a game.Second, the amount of pressure that defenses put on quarterback also limits the number of times that a QB will have time to go to a secondary receiver.Third, if the play called in the huddle is a poor one against the shown coverage the QB is more likely to audible to another play in order to target the "1st option" because he knows that is his best chance for success. Those voting less than 50% are giving your average NFL QB way too much credit.

I see now, I read it quick and was just kinda "huh??" after the first read.....sorry for that, and thanks for the explanation.Also, Good Stuff here Chase, always interesting to see how the rest of the fans out there view the percentages

 

[John Mamula]

i'll guess less than 30%.

you have 5 reads in theory on a pass play (if no RB is blocking) so that gives you about a 20% shot. you got some upside on your first read as that is where the play is designed to go, but i don't think that would bump it over 30%.

 

[Chase Stuart]

i'll guess less than 30%.you have 5 reads in theory on a pass play (if no RB is blocking) so that gives you about a 20% shot. you got some upside on your first read as that is where the play is designed to go, but i don't think that would bump it over 30%.

I'd imagine the 5th read on a play gets something like 5% of passes at most. There's just not enough time to go through five reads on a given play.

 

[John Mamula]

i'll guess less than 30%.you have 5 reads in theory on a pass play (if no RB is blocking) so that gives you about a 20% shot. you got some upside on your first read as that is where the play is designed to go, but i don't think that would bump it over 30%.

I'd imagine the 5th read on a play gets something like 5% of passes at most. There's just not enough time to go through five reads on a given play.

i agree. but the other 15% doesn't go to read 1...it goes to reads 1-4.i really have no idea, but it can't be that high.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

i'll guess less than 30%.you have 5 reads in theory on a pass play (if no RB is blocking) so that gives you about a 20% shot. you got some upside on your first read as that is where the play is designed to go, but i don't think that would bump it over 30%.

Not every pass play has 5 reads, as you alluded to with the "in theory" comment, so 20% or 30% seems low.Many plays have just 2 options. I recall a Big Ben play in year 1 where he had ONE read - Ward - or throw it away.I went 50-59%.Under 3 seconds to throw, fast pace, some routes take a bit to develop, and more sophisticated offensive plays are designed to get Option 1 open. Also don't assume that if a QB looks around, he's going away from Option 1. Looking off a DB / S to the wrong area downfield is another way to gain space for his primary target.

 

[John Mamula]

i'll guess less than 30%.you have 5 reads in theory on a pass play (if no RB is blocking) so that gives you about a 20% shot. you got some upside on your first read as that is where the play is designed to go, but i don't think that would bump it over 30%.

Not every pass play has 5 reads, as you alluded to with the "in theory" comment, so 20% or 30% seems low.Many plays have just 2 options. I recall a Big Ben play in year 1 where he had ONE read - Ward - or throw it away.I went 50-59%.Under 3 seconds to throw, fast pace, some routes take a bit to develop, and more sophisticated offensive plays are designed to get Option 1 open. Also don't assume that if a QB looks around, he's going away from Option 1. Looking off a DB / S to the wrong area downfield is another way to gain space for his primary target.

yeah, you may be right. maybe <30% was too low...but i would be shocked if it was over 50%.

 

[videoguy505]

33%. My ratio in Madden.

 

[John Mamula]

33%. My ratio in Madden.

 

[pgreenfan]

I voted 30-39%.

 

[pats3in4]

I voted 60-69%, figuring about 2/3 of all NFL passes go to option #1. My reasoning:

1. Plenty of screens that are in essence a single option play.

2. Passes on 2nd- and 3rd-and-short will have the first option available most of the time since the D is looking run, especially on play-action.

3. I think a lot of the passes to RBs are not checkdowns, but actual first options. The WRs and TEs run routes to clear out coverage on such plays.

This percentage would go way down if the game was played in 3rd-and-long every down, but since down-and-distance is dynamic, I think this greatly increases the odds of the first option being targeted.

 

[BassNBrew]

70-79% [ 6 ] [14.29%]

Assuming that this is based on last year's stats and we have Carr to add in with Delohomme.

 

[chris1969]

I'm wondering if Chase is gonna let us in on the answer tonight?

 

[BassNBrew]

Yo Chase...where you at?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Yo Chase...where you at?

I'm here. I don't know the answer. I was asking to see what people thought.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'm here. I don't know the answer. I was asking to see what people thought.

This may not be your most popular post.

 

[DoubleG]

I think it's 50%+ for many of the reasons listed above.

Two exceptions: Favre and Grossman - closer to 80% - both think they can throw into triple coverage. Unfortunately, that's where the similarities end.

Seriously, I think it differs from QB to QB. Manning and Brady probably go through their progressions much better than younger QBs (i.e. aren't afraid to check down to the 2nd or even 3rd option). Younger QBs will often try to force it to the #1 (or whoever their "favorite" WR is).

 

[BassNBrew]

Yo Chase...where you at?

I'm here. I don't know the answer. I was asking to see what people thought.

Wow...you deserve a kick in the nuts for this...actually several. Give yourself a three day timeout.

 

[videoguy505]

I'm here. I don't know the answer. I was asking to see what people thought.

This may not be your most popular post.

Why can't we put staff members on Ignore?