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The ol' "and it won't be close", or "and it isn't even close" have morphed into the most over used statements in the Shark pool. So much so, that if it is stated, it must be so.
This is the truest statement on this page and it ain't even close.
Won't he face about twelve guys in the box?
Forte and Smith have the deck stacked against them because they play for inept offenses. If Kevin Jones and Thomas Jones couldn't thrive in Detroit and Chicago then neither will either of these guys. I see their upside capped in the RB 15-20 range this season. I don't have much faith in McFadden or the Raiders as a whole. He has more upside than I gave him credit for in my first post, but that offense is a trainwreck waiting to happen. I don't see DMC being a difference maker this year. Stewart is probably the best FF talent of the bunch and he has the best supporting cast. As long as his toe checks out okay, I'd look for him to start from day one and finish the season with 1,100-1,200 rushing yards. He's the only one of the four that I'd want on a head-to-head redraft team this season.
That was my rationale for taking JJ Arrington a couple of years ago. Good luck with that thinking.
I would agree that JJ went higher in drafts because of his situation.......and that the same could be said of Forte and Smith
Stewart is a more prototypical NFL RB. He's much bigger and stronger. I think his NFL impact could be similar to that of guys like Steven Jackson and Jamal Lewis. If he's healthy and he lives up to his billing as a top 15 pick, he has a chance to be an above average workhorse immediately.McFadden doesn't really fit the mold of today's elite pro backs. He's a pure speed back with poor size and power. I think he has some value in best ball leagues because he has the potential to break long runs, but I'll be surprised if he's consistently productive. I also think Carolina > Oakland as a football team and organization. Russell is a complete unknown. Walker is a clown with injury question marks. Oakland's offense could be pretty good, but it could also be a disaster. I don't see that risk with Carolina unless Delhomme gets hurt again.
Could I ask for a little more explanation on this? IF Delhomme fully recovers and manages to play a full season (something he hasn't done in 2 years) then I'll give you the QB and WR part over all the others (except for Mendenhall who has a way better supporting cast). But I'd actually take Oakland's line over Carolina's, as well as their defense. Also, as far as I know no rookie has started for Fox from day one. Why is a rookie RB coming off an injury going to be the first?
I don't think the Bears will be horrible, assuming the defense/Hester is healthy and once again causing turnovers that result in favorable field position. Of course, any rookie could ultimately stink, but I like Forte's situation. If Michael Bush/Justin Fargas/FWP weren't lurking in Oakland/Pittsburgh, and the Panthers had dumped Williams, I'd go with one of them. Long term/Dynasty McFadden/Mendenhall/Stewart are logical choices, but for re-draft, it's all in the circumstances, and it is a crap-shoot, for the most part. Forte simply represents excellent value at the moment, and shouldn't make or break your team as a RB3.
The last two rookie RB's Fox had were DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams. Those guys aren't starting caliber RB's in the NFL. They used a top 15 pick on Stewart. All signs indicate that they want to get back to the power running style they had with Stephen Davis. Do the math. Put a good talent in a good offense built around his strengths and you're going to get good production. I think people are getting way too caught up on the, "But John Fox always starts the veteran over the rookie" thing. Davis was better than Foster. Foster might not have been better than Williams, but he was certainly a better fit for the scheme. Stewart is better than Williams and he's a better fit for the scheme. Stewart will start unless he's a huge bust. As for the supporting cast, the Panthers should be better than they were last year. They added Jeff Otah, Muhsin Muhammad, and DJ Hackett. Dwayne Jarrett has another year of experience. More importantly, Jake Delhomme is healthy. This team should be able to move the ball and give their RB scoring opportunities.
I've talked about this quite a bit. When it comes to RB's, BMI is a better indicator of size than weight. "Small" backs like MJD and Westbrook excel because they're not actually small. They're just short. When you look at the BMI, both guys are in the ideal range. The average starting NFL RB has a BMI of about 30. McFadden's BMI is 27.7. The only top 30 RB in the NFL last season with a BMI lower than McFadden's was Warrick Dunn. McFadden is rail thin by RB standards. When you watch him play, it's pretty clear that he doesn't have much in the way of leg drive. This will probably become a problem in the NFL, where the speed gap between him and the defenders will be much smaller than it was in college.
Stewart will not start, Williams will. Car will be in a RBBC. Stewart has a better RB to compete with for touches than any other RB in this discussion. Stewart is not as talented as McFadden. Stewart is overrated by a wide margin IMO and so is the Car rushing offense as a whole.
Maybe game 1 DeAngelo starts, but I even doubt that.
I would agree with you that guys who are big and slow should be avoided. Benson bombed in his pre-draft workouts. That was an obvious red flag. The fact that MJD and Westy wouldn't be any good without their speed doesn't disprove the fact that power is a necessary ingredient in their success. The best RB's in the NFL are a hybrid of speed and power. LaDainian Tomlinson and Clinton Portis can outrun defenders, but they also have the bulk needed to break tackles and endure the rigors of 300+ carries. The fact that virtually every elite NFL RB has a BMI over 29.5 is not something that should be glossed over.
1st of all, I think hoping for a top 10 finish out of any rookie RB is pretty much silly. So saying a rookie has upside of RB 15-20 doesn't really bother me. No rookie RB will drafted as a high RB2, certainly not Forte or Smith. On top of that, Forte and Smith are about the safest bets of the rookie RBs to get the most touches just by default. That alone gives them value. Fantasy football is about talent and opportunity. It looks very good for these 2 guys in the opportunity department. So while you may not like their "upside," I'd say they are about as safe as you are going to get to producing RB3/4 numbers from the rookie bunch. Given where you will likely draft them. I'd take that.The Oak offense is a trainwreck? You mean the same offense that ranked 6th in the NFL in rushing and had less talent at RB, less talent at QB and less talent at WR? This just doesn't make sense. Oak was awful last year and produced the best fantasy points for RBs of these 4 teams by far. I think hate has not only clouded your judgment on McFadden's talent, but now transfered over to his situation as well.Stewart is the best FF talent? Is that some sort of new method of evaluation? Not sure I even understand that comment. I'd say he has an average supporting class and one of the worst situations for FF success. Why is it so many people have short term memory loss when evaluating this situation and D. Williams. Car will be a RBBC this season and Williams will start. He is not going away just because you think Stewart has FF talent. Williams played well last year and Fox is an idiot. Why you would want a rookie RB coached by Fox (loyal to a fault with vets) who is in a RBBC coming off an injury and who has a long history of injuries in head to head formats is beyond me. Best of luck though.
I don't think it's a stretch to say Oakland is a trainwreck waiting to happen. Do you really not see the bust risk of JaMarcus Russell and Javon Walker? It's no secret that I think McFadden is overrated. Throw an overrated talent into a volatile situation with a first year starter at QB and suspect wideouts and you have the recipe for a potential disaster. That's not to mention the Al Davis factor or the fact that Oakland has been horrible for a long time.
I've been saying the same things about Oakland all offseason. I was saying this even before they picked DMC.
You've just laid out the exact reason why Stewart is on my underrated list for redrafts. Everyone is assuming that Fox always starts the veteran. I don't think it's necessarily that simple. I think Fox starts the best player for his scheme. Davis was better than Foster. Foster was a better power runner than D-Will. Stewart is a better power runner than D-Will. Stewart fits the system better and will be given every opportunity to win the workhorse role immediately. That's my take on the situation. My hunch is that Williams will be relegated to the same role he has held each of the past two seasons.
Peterson is one of the few exceptions and FWIW, he has only played a full season once in his last four years of football. I would also argue that any objective observer will agree that Peterson runs with much better power and balance than McFadden.
Williams is the guy that played behind DeShaun Foster, right?
Returning kicks doesn't mean he won't start. Heck, Brian Westbrook still gets used to return kicks at times.Yes, he reportedly had blazing speed prior to the injury.sholditch said:
Have you ever watched Johnathan Stewart play? He's as talented as McFadden and probably more talented. Many just don't know about him because he's from the West Coast (where he was a 5-star recruit and #3 RB in the nation coming out of high school) and played in the Pac-10. Dennis Dixon got all the headlines for his college team.The only reason Stewart hasn't quite lived up to the hype is because of his inability to stay healthy. But, when healthy, and when on the field, he's a beast. He's fast, powerful and has phenomenal vision.jurb26 said:
Link?I have not seen or heard this. If true, I'd sure like to know this.super sleeper said:
EBF said:
