What team may surprise and draft a RB in the 1st/2nd (1 Viewer)

[comfortably numb]

Everyone expects CHI/DET/HOU/NYJ too look RB early in the draft.

Teams have gone after RB's despite it not being a big need.

ADP/Chester

Mcgahee/T.Henry

What team do you think would surprise people by taking a RB in the 1st or 2nd?

Any chance these teams take a RB in the 1st or 2nd?

For depth, or can not simply pass up the talent, BPA?

GB

KC

WASH

PIT

NE

SD

BALT

Any thoughts?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Cincy if Rudi qualifies

Dallas is openly discussing it if MBIII qualifies.

AZ might support Edge and hedge the future if they love a falling back.

 

[comfortably numb]

Cincy if Rudi qualifiesDallas is openly discussing it if MBIII qualifies.AZ might support Edge and hedge the future if they love a falling back.

Good points on those, although lots of talk on DAL and ARZ taking a RB already.So i don't think many would be surprised, although yes, they do "qualify" in terms of my question.I haven't heard CIN taking a RB early. It could make sense, despite much bigger needs, just haven't heard or seen a mock with them landing a RB in the 1st/2nd.If Mcfadden falls to 9?Forte or Chris Johnson in the 2nd?

 

[RJS113]

I think Jonathan Stewart to the Eagles would be a great pick.

 

[Our Gang]

I know this is a bit out there, but stranger things have happened. What if Miami drafts McFadden? That would really shake up the rest of the draft.

 

[gianmarco]

Missed Oakland and Carolina which many are expecting to go RB, but I think both will pass.

 

[radiohead417]

I think there are very few teams that you can say for sure won't surprise and take a RB. Think about the Chiefs and Larry Johnson. I'm a Jags homer - and while I doubt it, I don't think it would be impossible for them to take a bruising back to compliment MJD once Freddy T retires. They look like need drafters to me, so I doubt they'll go that route - but I do think it's possible.

 

[dcgangstas]

Given Al Davis' infatuation with speed, and willingness to overlook character flaws, it wouldn't surprise me at all for the Beloved Silver and Black to take Darren McFadden. With his 4.38 40-yard dash time that he wowed the scouts with at the Combine (and the Crypt Keeper watching in the front row), Al may go after McFadden, even with the $12 million contract that he gave Fargas, and Dominic Rhodes and Lamont Jordan still hanging around.

My preference (as if Al cares) would be taking Vernon Gholston or Glenn Dorsey to shore up the defense. Fargas played well down the stretch, and should remain the feature back (assuming he's healthy).

 

[comfortably numb]

I know this is a bit out there, but stranger things have happened. What if Miami drafts McFadden? That would really shake up the rest of the draft.

Yes, this would shake things up, and I could see the reasoning behind it.

 

[comfortably numb]

I think Jonathan Stewart to the Eagles would be a great pick.

A 1st RD pick on a RB despite having one of the best RB's in the game.That would surprise me, and yet I could see the logic in it.

 

[travdogg]

I could see Pittsburgh taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. I honestly think they are more likely to than Carolina.

 

[comfortably numb]

SD seems short on picks.

ANY chance they take a RB in the 1st to fill void left by Turner leaving?

 

[Slider]

Philly could. Probably got lucky with Westbrook staying healthy.

 

[EBF]

I could see Pittsburgh taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. I honestly think they are more likely to than Carolina.

What he said. Pitt reportedly had their sights set on LenDale White in 2006 and would've taken him if Santonio Holmes hadn't fallen into a range that allowed them to move up and nab him. Parker is a decent player, but IMO he's far from an elite talent despite his gaudy yardage totals. The Steelers are having Chris Johnson in for a visit and I think they would strongly consider Jonathan Stewart if he somehow fell to their first round pick.Mendenhall to Cincinnati is a possibility. I could see San Diego taking a RB in the top 60 if they think the value is there. They need a legit backup for LT and this is a great year for them to find that player. Finally, I could see the Colts taking a back in the top 60, but I think the more likely scenario is them rolling the dice on one of the day two guys.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Ted Thompson will take the highest remaining player on his draft board in the first round. Ryan Grant played well for the last half of 2008, but its been proven over and over again that two good RBs are necessary for that position. Brandon Jackson has to still be a question mark in their minds.

The Packers have greater needs, (CB, OL, S) but I have seen enough TT drafts to know he'll take the player he has ranked highest regardless.

 

[gianmarco]

Ted Thompson will take the highest remaining player on his draft board in the first round. Ryan Grant played well for the last half of 2008, but its been proven over and over again that two good RBs are necessary for that position. Brandon Jackson has to still be a question mark in their minds. The Packers have greater needs, (CB, OL, S) but I have seen enough TT drafts to know he'll take the player he has ranked highest regardless.

While BJ has question marks, I think he'll get a pass as the #2 RB for at least one year. I highly doubt that GB takes a RB in 1st or 2nd round. But, I'm sure they will take one in the draft at some point.

 

[comfortably numb]

I could see Pittsburgh taking a RB in the first 2 rounds. I honestly think they are more likely to than Carolina.

What he said. Pitt reportedly had their sights set on LenDale White in 2006 and would've taken him if Santonio Holmes hadn't fallen into a range that allowed them to move up and nab him. Parker is a decent player, but IMO he's far from an elite talent despite his gaudy yardage totals. The Steelers are having Chris Johnson in for a visit and I think they would strongly consider Jonathan Stewart if he somehow fell to their first round pick.Mendenhall to Cincinnati is a possibility. I could see San Diego taking a RB in the top 60 if they think the value is there. They need a legit backup for LT and this is a great year for them to find that player. Finally, I could see the Colts taking a back in the top 60, but I think the more likely scenario is them rolling the dice on one of the day two guys.

Good thoughtsCinci with Mendenhall at 1.9? or do you think possibly Mendenhall goes in to the 2nd?SD picks at 27 then next again at 160.IND picks 59 then 93Its should be interesting as this class is deep at RB, and you must assume teams with good RB will eventually start pickcing these guys up in the 2nd 3rd...

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Ted Thompson will take the highest remaining player on his draft board in the first round. Ryan Grant played well for the last half of 2008, but its been proven over and over again that two good RBs are necessary for that position. Brandon Jackson has to still be a question mark in their minds. The Packers have greater needs, (CB, OL, S) but I have seen enough TT drafts to know he'll take the player he has ranked highest regardless.

While BJ has question marks, I think he'll get a pass as the #2 RB for at least one year. I highly doubt that GB takes a RB in 1st or 2nd round. But, I'm sure they will take one in the draft at some point.

I agree that is the most likely scenario. However, if Stewart falls because of the injury concerns and TT sees him as a value, he'll be a Packer. Felix Jones fits a lot of what the Packers need with his return abilities and pass catching out of the backfield. I am just not sure that TT goes that way with Jones still trying to break his first tackle.

 

[EBF]

Cinci with Mendenhall at 1.9?

It would be a reach, but not a flagrant reach. Lynch went 1.12 last year and Mendenhall is in the same ballpark as a prospect.

SD picks at 27 then next again at 160.

I wouldn't be stunned to see Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, or Felix Jones as their choice at 1.27. The more likely scenario is them looking at guys like Xavier Omon, Thomas Brown, Jalen Parmele, and Ryan Torain in the late rounds. I really don't think they'll be content to enter next season with Sproles as their only LT insurance.

IND picks 59 then 93

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

 

[massraider]

Ted Thompson will take the highest remaining player on his draft board in the first round. Ryan Grant played well for the last half of 2008, but its been proven over and over again that two good RBs are necessary for that position. Brandon Jackson has to still be a question mark in their minds. The Packers have greater needs, (CB, OL, S) but I have seen enough TT drafts to know he'll take the player he has ranked highest regardless.

While BJ has question marks, I think he'll get a pass as the #2 RB for at least one year. I highly doubt that GB takes a RB in 1st or 2nd round. But, I'm sure they will take one in the draft at some point.

I'd be surprised if the Pack went RB, as it seems the zone scheme agrees with Grant.But every year, there are a few teams that take a guy that they just have ranked SO far ahead of everyone else, that they can't ignore it. I wouldn't be shocked if Mendenhall is #1 on a fee teams' boards, and maybe someone just can't pass on the value. And Thompson has that rep as being a BPA guy.I think this may happen with WR as well, as I doubt there is any kind of a consensus. I would LOVE to see the difference in each teams' WR rankings.

 

[Demian]

I think Jonathan Stewart to the Eagles would be a great pick.

I could see them taking an RB due to BPA or simply because they need more playmakers.

 

[switz]

Everyone expects CHI/DET/HOU/NYJ too look RB early in the draft.Teams have gone after RB's despite it not being a big need.Any thoughts?

CAR, CIN and DAL definitely will look at RBs available when their picks come around. And don't put it past NE to grab an RB, even with Maroney, if the player there is the BPA.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

SD picks at 27 then next again at 160.

EBF

I wouldn't be stunned to see Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, or Felix Jones as their choice at 1.27. The more likely scenario is them looking at guys like Xavier Omon, Thomas Brown, Jalen Parmele, and Ryan Torain in the late rounds. I really don't think they'll be content to enter next season with Sproles as their only LT insurance.

Not to hijack, but if SD doesn't pick a RB early are they the perfect landing spot for Kevin Jones?

 

[comfortably numb]

Cinci with Mendenhall at 1.9?

It would be a reach, but not a flagrant reach. Lynch went 1.12 last year and Mendenhall is in the same ballpark as a prospect.

SD picks at 27 then next again at 160.

I wouldn't be stunned to see Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, or Felix Jones as their choice at 1.27. The more likely scenario is them looking at guys like Xavier Omon, Thomas Brown, Jalen Parmele, and Ryan Torain in the late rounds. I really don't think they'll be content to enter next season with Sproles as their only LT insurance.

IND picks 59 then 93

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

Would be very interesting if SD goes RB in the 1st.Agree that they need to address their backup needs at RB.This is a bad year to NOT have a 2nd/3rd even a 4th if you wanted a quality RB in the later RDs.I wonder if some would place that RB in the top 3 of their FF drafts if SD went RB in the 1st.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

I'd be shocked if Dallas takes one in the first with so many available and that they really need to start grooming replacements for both Glenn and TO.

Cincy needs defense above all else.

 

[switz]

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

The people who think IND is going to use an early pick on an RB have no clue what they are talking about. And any RB that does come in (likely a 4th or 5th rounder), really has little to zero shot of seeing much playing time.

 

[Kleck]

I'm not sure there is a team that could surprise me. Where the player was taken might be more of a surprise than the team.

I could see someone like Chris Johnson being high on may lists just because of the speed factor.

 

[bigreese82]

TN

 

[Buckna]

I realize the thread title said "teams that may surprise," but I can tell we are on a fantasy football message board. I think the importance of RB's in fantasy warps us into thinking they are more important to NFL teams than they really are. By my count, no less than 18 teams have been mentioned by posters that would consider taking a RB in the first two rounds in this thread. On average, 5 RB's are taken in the first two rounds every year, and if IIRC, only about 16 or 17 RB's are generally drafted every year in all rounds.

Some comments:

CAR - 2 years removed from drafting a 1st round RB and you're already going to draft another 1st rounder? (The only time I can think of this ever happening was when NO drafted Duece after Ricky's first two dissappointing years and Ditka's traded away all those Saints picks. Can anyone think of any other time?)

NE - same thing as CAR plus Sammy Morris back from injury?

SD - a team 1 game away from the superbowl is going to spend their 1st on a backup to the greatest RB in the league and to replace a former 6th rounder? And in a year when everyone admits RB is a very deep position?

CIN - the #10 offense and #27 defense in the league is going to spend a 1st when they have Rudi, Watson, Perry, & Irons?

GB - spent a 2nd on a RB last year and had Grant emerge?

 

[Sweet Love]

I'd be shocked if Dallas takes one in the first with so many available and that they really need to start grooming replacements for both Glenn and TO.Cincy needs defense above all else.

I've heard talk that Dallas could take Felix Jones with their second 1st round pick and address WR with their first pick.

 

[houndirish]

I could see the Giants taking a RB with the last pick in the first round. It seems that the RB position has been devalued on draft day in recent years. I can see a guy like Stewart or Jones falling that far. The Giants definitely have needs ahead of RB but the front office has subscribed to the BPA notion. Derrick Ward has a one year deal and could be gone after this year. Droughns is no sure thing to even make the roster this year. Jacobs, while being a load to bring down, hasn't removed any doubts about being able to be a feature back. Bradshaw's star certainly got brighter towards the end of '07 but his upside has still yet to be determined.

Maybe this seems crazy but the Giants were deeper at Defensive End a few years ago when they selected Kiwanuka at the same slot. I could see it.

 

[Fiddles]

ravens

 

[EBF]

I realize the thread title said "teams that may surprise," but I can tell we are on a fantasy football message board. I think the importance of RB's in fantasy warps us into thinking they are more important to NFL teams than they really are. By my count, no less than 18 teams have been mentioned by posters that would consider taking a RB in the first two rounds in this thread. On average, 5 RB's are taken in the first two rounds every year, and if IIRC, only about 16 or 17 RB's are generally drafted every year in all rounds.

Some comments:

CAR - 2 years removed from drafting a 1st round RB and you're already going to draft another 1st rounder? (The only time I can think of this ever happening was when NO drafted Duece after Ricky's first two dissappointing years and Ditka's traded away all those Saints picks. Can anyone think of any other time?)

NE - same thing as CAR plus Sammy Morris back from injury?

SD - a team 1 game away from the superbowl is going to spend their 1st on a backup to the greatest RB in the league and to replace a former 6th rounder? And in a year when everyone admits RB is a very deep position?

CIN - the #10 offense and #27 defense in the league is going to spend a 1st when they have Rudi, Watson, Perry, & Irons?

GB - spent a 2nd on a RB last year and had Grant emerge?

To this I would counter:2007 1.07 Adrian Peterson (Chester Taylor)

2006 1.02 Reggie Bush (Deuce McAllister)

2006 1.27 DeAngelo Williams (Deshaun Foster)

2004 1.24 Steven Jackson (Marshall Faulk)

2004 1.26 Chris Perry (Rudi Johnson)

2003 1.23 Willis McGahee (Travis Henry)

2003 1.27 Larry Johnson (Priest Holmes)

One of the big problems I have with mock drafts is that they often operate under the assumption that teams will automatically use their pick to fill one of their most glaring needs. In reality, teams will often take the best player available even if he plays a position that looks like a minor need.

Did you really expect Steven Jackson to be a St. Louis Ram? Did you think the Bengals would take Chris Perry? Did you think the Chiefs would take Larry Johnson at a time when Priest Holmes was a Pro Bowler? Did you expect the Bills to take McGahee coming off a 1,400 rushing yard season by Travis Henry?

I can easily conceive of a scenario where a team like San Diego or Carolina drafts a back. Looking at the specific teams you mentioned:

CAR - Williams is totally untested as a starter. Some people have questioned his power and his inside running. Fox seems to prefer power backs over scat backs, as evidenced by his loyalty to Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster. It's not difficult to imagine this team falling in love with Mendenhall or Stewart. Oh yeah...and this team has no depth whatsoever at RB with Foster out of town.

NE - Maroney and Morris. Here's another word that starts with "m": mediocre. That's what these guys are. If the team thinks Darren McFadden is an Adrian Peterson type impact player then would they really pass on him because they have Laurence Maroney? I don't think so.

SD - LaDainian Tomlinson was the best RB in the league over the last half decade. Next season he'll be a 29 year old RB with almost 3,000 career touches. He's coming off an injury-plagued playoffs and he has no backup to speak of. It's not hard to understand why the Chargers might consider a RB. A rookie might look useless right now, but he could be starting in another year or two. No one plays forever.

GB - Grant looks like a player, but so did Chris Brown. This is another team with a lot of question marks at the RB position. Do they have some talented guys? Sure. Do they have a surefire 300 carry RB? Not really. If Stewart is there in the late first round and they have him graded as a top 10 player in the draft, who knows what will happen?

Bottom line is that the draft almost never works out the way we envision it. So while I agree that not every team with a possible need at RB will use a top 60 pick on a runner, I think it's highly likely that some of the top RB prospects in this class will land in unexpected situations. It happens every year.

 

[Chaos Commish]

IND picks 59 then 93

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

I recently read quotes from Polian in a Colts blog called Stamped Blue. He is definitely looking at the RBs we see as 2nd and 3rd round values. Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, two of my favorites, appear to be favored there (at the blog). Polian's most direct comments simply said they needed to get someone who could compliment Addai, he agrees this is a very good class of RBs, and RB was one of a few draft priorities. Fwiw, I am more intrigued by this situation that almost any other.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I'd be shocked if Dallas takes one in the first with so many available and that they really need to start grooming replacements for both Glenn and TO.Cincy needs defense above all else.

I've heard talk that Dallas could take Felix Jones with their second 1st round pick and address WR with their first pick.

the idea of a Felix pick in the 1st has had momentum since Clevaland's pick no longer looked good enough to secure McFadden. I wonder if that's making too much of the Arkansas connection. Dallas is openly coveting an RB with one of those first two picks, and interviewing a long list of likely suspects. Who it will be, I think, is far from etched in stone. But I've seen the Felix projection so much, I am starting to anticipate it actually happening. Dallas has been predictable. I personally prefer a few other backs before Jones, but they all look fine. It's a solid and deep class.

 

[EBF]

IND picks 59 then 93

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

I recently read quotes from Polian in a Colts blog called Stamped Blue. He is definitely looking at the RBs we see as 2nd and 3rd round values. Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, two of my favorites, appear to be favored there (at the blog). Polian's most direct comments simply said they needed to get someone who could compliment Addai, he agrees this is a very good class of RBs, and RB was one of a few draft priorities. Fwiw, I am more intrigued by this situation that almost any other.

I agree that it's an interesting spot. I know there are some big Joe Addai fans around here and I don't want to get started on a big debate with those folks, but I think everyone can agree that his second half performance was lackluster. If he struggles next year then he could be at risk of losing touches. A guy like Forte could make some noise for the Colts if things broke right for him.

 

[switz]

IND picks 59 then 93

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

I recently read quotes from Polian in a Colts blog called Stamped Blue. He is definitely looking at the RBs we see as 2nd and 3rd round values. Chris Johnson and Matt Forte, two of my favorites, appear to be favored there (at the blog). Polian's most direct comments simply said they needed to get someone who could compliment Addai, he agrees this is a very good class of RBs, and RB was one of a few draft priorities. Fwiw, I am more intrigued by this situation that almost any other.

If it's the article I read, he also said they definitely would not look early (before 4th round), and that they were only looking for depth to compete with Keith for a backup spot.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I realize the thread title said "teams that may surprise," but I can tell we are on a fantasy football message board. I think the importance of RB's in fantasy warps us into thinking they are more important to NFL teams than they really are. By my count, no less than 18 teams have been mentioned by posters that would consider taking a RB in the first two rounds in this thread. On average, 5 RB's are taken in the first two rounds every year, and if IIRC, only about 16 or 17 RB's are generally drafted every year in all rounds.

Some comments:

CAR - 2 years removed from drafting a 1st round RB and you're already going to draft another 1st rounder? (The only time I can think of this ever happening was when NO drafted Duece after Ricky's first two dissappointing years and Ditka's traded away all those Saints picks. Can anyone think of any other time?)

NE - same thing as CAR plus Sammy Morris back from injury?

SD - a team 1 game away from the superbowl is going to spend their 1st on a backup to the greatest RB in the league and to replace a former 6th rounder? And in a year when everyone admits RB is a very deep position?

CIN - the #10 offense and #27 defense in the league is going to spend a 1st when they have Rudi, Watson, Perry, & Irons?

GB - spent a 2nd on a RB last year and had Grant emerge?

To this I would counter:2007 1.07 Adrian Peterson (Chester Taylor)

2006 1.02 Reggie Bush (Deuce McAllister)

2006 1.27 DeAngelo Williams (Deshaun Foster)

2004 1.24 Steven Jackson (Marshall Faulk)

2004 1.26 Chris Perry (Rudi Johnson)

2003 1.23 Willis McGahee (Travis Henry)

2003 1.27 Larry Johnson (Priest Holmes)

One of the big problems I have with mock drafts is that they often operate under the assumption that teams will automatically use their pick to fill one of their most glaring needs. In reality, teams will often take the best player available even if he plays a position that looks like a minor need.

Did you really expect Steven Jackson to be a St. Louis Ram? Did you think the Bengals would take Chris Perry? Did you think the Chiefs would take Larry Johnson at a time when Priest Holmes was a Pro Bowler? Did you expect the Bills to take McGahee coming off a 1,400 rushing yard season by Travis Henry?

I can easily conceive of a scenario where a team like San Diego or Carolina drafts a back. Looking at the specific teams you mentioned:

CAR - Williams is totally untested as a starter. Some people have questioned his power and his inside running. Fox seems to prefer power backs over scat backs, as evidenced by his loyalty to Stephen Davis and Deshaun Foster. It's not difficult to imagine this team falling in love with Mendenhall or Stewart. Oh yeah...and this team has no depth whatsoever at RB with Foster out of town.

NE - Maroney and Morris. Here's another word that starts with "m": mediocre. That's what these guys are. If the team thinks Darren McFadden is an Adrian Peterson type impact player then would they really pass on him because they have Laurence Maroney? I don't think so.

SD - LaDainian Tomlinson was the best RB in the league over the last half decade. Next season he'll be a 29 year old RB with almost 3,000 career touches. He's coming off an injury-plagued playoffs and he has no backup to speak of. It's not hard to understand why the Chargers might consider a RB. A rookie might look useless right now, but he could be starting in another year or two. No one plays forever.

GB - Grant looks like a player, but so did Chris Brown. This is another team with a lot of question marks at the RB position. Do they have some talented guys? Sure. Do they have a surefire 300 carry RB? Not really. If Stewart is there in the late first round and they have him graded as a top 10 player in the draft, who knows what will happen?

Bottom line is that the draft almost never works out the way we envision it. So while I agree that not every team with a possible need at RB will use a top 60 pick on a runner, I think it's highly likely that some of the top RB prospects in this class will land in unexpected situations. It happens every year.

People often forget just how out of the blue many of those scenarios were. In 2003/2004, I doubt anyone can dig up a single mock draft that had Sjax, Perry, or Mcgahee predicted right.

 

[Donnybrook]

TN

This is my thought as well. I see mocks that have Houston taking a RB in the 1st but never Tennessee even though Houston has a lot more money and players invested at the position. I also wonder if Kubiak has adopted the Denver philosophy of drafting RBs in the later rounds. Is the system more important than the personnel? Tennessee has nothing invested beyond White and Henry. White continues to have off the field issues. It will interesting to see what happens if Stewart falls to the Titans.

 

[comfortably numb]

I realize the thread title said "teams that may surprise," but I can tell we are on a fantasy football message board. I think the importance of RB's in fantasy warps us into thinking they are more important to NFL teams than they really are. By my count, no less than 18 teams have been mentioned by posters that would consider taking a RB in the first two rounds in this thread. On average, 5 RB's are taken in the first two rounds every year, and if IIRC, only about 16 or 17 RB's are generally drafted every year in all rounds.

Some comments:

CAR - 2 years removed from drafting a 1st round RB and you're already going to draft another 1st rounder? (The only time I can think of this ever happening was when NO drafted Duece after Ricky's first two dissappointing years and Ditka's traded away all those Saints picks. Can anyone think of any other time?)

NE - same thing as CAR plus Sammy Morris back from injury?

SD - a team 1 game away from the superbowl is going to spend their 1st on a backup to the greatest RB in the league and to replace a former 6th rounder? And in a year when everyone admits RB is a very deep position?

CIN - the #10 offense and #27 defense in the league is going to spend a 1st when they have Rudi, Watson, Perry, & Irons?

GB - spent a 2nd on a RB last year and had Grant emerge?

Yes, FF does warp us at times, and the of 18 teams mentioned, I am sure some are flat out wrong.BUT, just because on average 5 RB's are taken in the 1st 2 RD each year, doesn't mean a total of 18 teams would not be interested in said players IF they were available at their pick.

Last year if ADP for some reason kept slipping past MIN I would think at least 5-8 of the next 10 picks would take him despite it not being a need.

MIA

HOU

SF

BUF

STL

NYJ

PIT

GB

DEN

CIN

 

[Buckna]

2007 1.07 Adrian Peterson (Chester Taylor) - it was surprising where he ended up mainly because he lasted to 7, but I have admitted man love for Peterson (and u should know since I own him in MOX 4.)

2006 1.02 Reggie Bush (Deuce McAllister) - Duece had 2 injured seasons the prior year, and Bush had the greatest amount of draft hype ever, if he didn't go to Houston (and as a homer I argued we wouldn't draft him), he wasn't getting past NO

2006 1.27 DeAngelo Williams (Deshaun Foster) - Not surprising, it was widely expected, Shelton & Foster had major injuries the year before, Stephen Davis was cut, 2005 saw Carolina playing Nick Goings of all people at RB

2004 1.24 Steven Jackson (Marshall Faulk) - Faulk was 31 and hadn't played a full season in 4 years. it was surprising that Jackson had been in a free fall during the draft and lasted to them

2004 1.26 Chris Perry (Rudi Johnson) - Rudi wasn't established as a starter and Dillon had just been traded, everyone expected Cinci to take a RB, they were just surprised they passed on SJax to trade down and then took Perry instead

2003 1.23 Willis McGahee (Travis Henry) - everyone was surprised there and turned out to be a pretty foolish move by Buffalo

2003 1.27 Larry Johnson (Priest Holmes) - Priest was turning 30 that year, and had suffered a major hip injury that ended his season and his run at the TD record in '02, there was speculation his career was in jeopardy and the words "Bo Jackson" were being thrown around back then

I don't remember a lot of those 1st round picks being too surprising, even so, if my memory isn't what it should be, you're talking maybe 1 or 2 cases in a 1st round on average. I tend to find that 2nd round and later picks are often much more surprising:2007 - Chris Henry to Tenn - workout warrier after Tenn drafted Lendale in the 2nd the year before?

2005 - Morency to Houston in the 3rd - when they had Dom Davis and super stud Tony Hollings?

2002 - 1st round TJ Ducket to Atlanta when they had Dunn? although I remember Dunn had knocks for never being a goalline guy

2002 - Maurice Morris to Seattle when they had a stud in Alexander?

Bottom line is that the draft almost never works out the way we envision it. So while I agree that not every team with a possible need at RB will use a top 60 pick on a runner, I think it's highly likely that some of the top RB prospects in this class will land in unexpected situations. It happens every year.

I don't disagree, but when I see mock drafts on the boards with 4 to 5 RB's in the 1st round and all going to teams that "need" RB's, or nearly every team in the league mentioned as a team looking for a RB in the first 2 rounds I tend to think many people aren't thinking as objectively about the position in general as they should be and that was my main point in my first post.FWIW, where Stewart lands is what I think is going to end up surprising people. With the toe injury there are some experts saying that he is a 2nd rounder at best now and the guy is all over the map. And with that injury a team without an apparant need may grab him and stash him for a season, especially if he falls past the teams in the teen's.

The 2nd round RB's are going to be the surprises to me this year, but I honestly don't think as many RB's will go in the first two rounds as people on here seem to think. I could easily be wrong about that though.

 

[EBF]

I think hindsight has clouded your memory. I don't think anyone expected Cincy to take a RB in the first and they certainly didn't expect them to pick Perry. LJ to KC and Jackson to STL were surprises on the level of Stewart to SD. The McGahee pick was a total jaw dropper. It would be roughly equivalent to the 49ers taking Stewart.

As far as the mock drafts go, I see three RBs who should go in the first: McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall. Then there are a few guys who probably aren't worth a top 30 pick, but definitely have a chance to sneak into late round 1 ala Chris Perry, Joseph Addai, and Trung Canidate. That group includes Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones. I think Johnson is the most likely to be taken in the top 30.

I think all the talk about this being a good RB group is legit. I see maybe 8-10 guys worth a top 100 pick and just as many worth a shot on the second day.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I'll be writing an article on this very subject over at draftguys soon. good topic and discussion!

 

[brock]

how was LJ to KC a surprise? holmes was getting old and started having some injury concerns. same for sjax and faulk. a healthy mcgahee would have also been a top 5 pick so i can't fault the bills for making the value pick.

 

[djcolts]

Knowing their tendencies, they probably won't use a top 100 pick on a RB. There are some questions about their RB situation, but they can definitely survive with that they have right now. So I think they'll only take a RB early if they see a tremendous value there. Otherwise I think they'll probably look for a cheap guy to come in and compete with Keith for the backup spot.

The people who think IND is going to use an early pick on an RB have no clue what they are talking about. And any RB that does come in (likely a 4th or 5th rounder), really has little to zero shot of seeing much playing time.

I disagree. Stampedeblue.com - a very highly regarded Colts blog - is saying that if the right guy is there in round 2 that they should take that RB (they are talking about the ECU's Johnson and Tulane's Forte).

 

[mdog1967]

I think hindsight has clouded your memory. I don't think anyone expected Cincy to take a RB in the first and they certainly didn't expect them to pick Perry. LJ to KC and Jackson to STL were surprises on the level of Stewart to SD. The McGahee pick was a total jaw dropper. It would be roughly equivalent to the 49ers taking Stewart. As far as the mock drafts go, I see three RBs who should go in the first: McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall. Then there are a few guys who probably aren't worth a top 30 pick, but definitely have a chance to sneak into late round 1 ala Chris Perry, Joseph Addai, and Trung Canidate. That group includes Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones. I think Johnson is the most likely to be taken in the top 30. I think all the talk about this being a good RB group is legit. I see maybe 8-10 guys worth a top 100 pick and just as many worth a shot on the second day.

EBF great post. I would add that it would not shock me to see the 49ers take Stewart, he shouldn't be there that late but?. I know they have Gore and I think his talent is as good or better than any in the league, including LT. That said your point on everything in this thread is spot on, so if any of us are surprised by a team taking a RB in the first two rounds of the draft, we shouldn't be. Switz I know your in love with Addai and I don't see his job in jeopardy right now, but sometimes a team sees a player still there when they thought would be long gone and they just have to take him. The biggest shock in the draft maybe how Far DMAC falls on draft day. If he gets by the Raiders and Jets I could see him falling to Dallas. I think the Steelers are going to draft Stewart if he's on the board. I think GB will not draft a RB early, Grant and the selection(reach) on Brandon Jackson should keep the Packer Ego from admitting that they goofed on Jackson. Right now they can say we are letting him develop his skill set.I think Ray Rice goes much earlier than anticipated and could sneak into the first round, Dallas second 1st round pick if they are unable to snag DMAC.

 

[EBF]

how was LJ to KC a surprise? holmes was getting old and started having some injury concerns. same for sjax and faulk. a healthy mcgahee would have also been a top 5 pick so i can't fault the bills for making the value pick.

Surprise is a relative term. What you said about Holmes applies to LT, yet I think there are plenty of people who would be surprised if the Chargers drafted Jonathan Stewart or Chris Johnson. In hindsight we'd be able to justify the pick by saying LT is getting old and they need insurance, but I don't think I've seen a single mock that has the Chargers drafting a RB in the first. I'm pretty sure there weren't a lot of people who thought the Chiefs were going to take Larry Johnson. Now that he's become a success and Holmes is out of the league, it seems like an obvious choice, but it was hardly expected at the time. Ditto Jackson to STL. I don't think I saw a single mock that had that pick. A lot of people thought he'd go to Detroit, Tampa Bay, or Philadelphia earlier in the draft. Most mocks have the RBs going to NYJ, OAK, CAR, CHI, DEN, DET, HOU, TB, SEA, or DAL. That's where people expect the first round RBs to go this year. If a team like PIT or SD or STL takes a RB then we might be able to justify it in hindsight, but it will still qualify as a surprise since no mocks have those teams taking a RB in the first.

 

[EBF]

I think hindsight has clouded your memory. I don't think anyone expected Cincy to take a RB in the first and they certainly didn't expect them to pick Perry. LJ to KC and Jackson to STL were surprises on the level of Stewart to SD. The McGahee pick was a total jaw dropper. It would be roughly equivalent to the 49ers taking Stewart. As far as the mock drafts go, I see three RBs who should go in the first: McFadden, Stewart, and Mendenhall. Then there are a few guys who probably aren't worth a top 30 pick, but definitely have a chance to sneak into late round 1 ala Chris Perry, Joseph Addai, and Trung Canidate. That group includes Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones. I think Johnson is the most likely to be taken in the top 30. I think all the talk about this being a good RB group is legit. I see maybe 8-10 guys worth a top 100 pick and just as many worth a shot on the second day.

EBF great post. I would add that it would not shock me to see the 49ers take Stewart, he shouldn't be there that late but?. I know they have Gore and I think his talent is as good or better than any in the league, including LT. That said your point on everything in this thread is spot on, so if any of us are surprised by a team taking a RB in the first two rounds of the draft, we shouldn't be. Switz I know your in love with Addai and I don't see his job in jeopardy right now, but sometimes a team sees a player still there when they thought would be long gone and they just have to take him. The biggest shock in the draft maybe how Far DMAC falls on draft day. If he gets by the Raiders and Jets I could see him falling to Dallas. I think the Steelers are going to draft Stewart if he's on the board. I think GB will not draft a RB early, Grant and the selection(reach) on Brandon Jackson should keep the Packer Ego from admitting that they goofed on Jackson. Right now they can say we are letting him develop his skill set.I think Ray Rice goes much earlier than anticipated and could sneak into the first round, Dallas second 1st round pick if they are unable to snag DMAC.

I think surprise first round picks happen for a few reasons:1. A team has a bigger need than the public perceives. I think this explains why the Bengals took Chris Perry and Kenny Irons. On the surface the team looked pretty set at RB with Rudi Johnson, but they must have had some internal doubts about his ability or they wouldn't have used two top 60 picks on potential replacements. A good candidate for this phenomenon this year is the Pittsburgh Steelers. On the surface they might look set at RB with Willie Parker, but I wouldn't be surprised if internally the team would like to upgrade that RB spot. 2. A team has a player graded so high that they can't pass on him when he falls to their pick. I think this explains the Steven Jackson and Willis McGahee selections. There comes a point where teams say, "What's this guy still doing on the board?" The Rams and Bills didn't NEED Jackson and McGahee. Faulk was still relatively productive and Henry was coming off a stud season. But the value of Jackson and McGahee was too tempting to pass up in the late 20's. I could see Stewart being that guy this year if he somehow falls into the 20-30 range. I also think a team could have Chris Johnson or Jamaal Charles graded much higher than the public expects, which could result in one or two of those guys being first round picks.

 

[J Andersson]

Good thoughtsCinci with Mendenhall at 1.9? or do you think possibly Mendenhall goes in to the 2nd?

I can't think of any scenario where Mendenhall slips through the 1st round barring an injury (god forbid) or any other freak accident leading up to the draft.However, I think Cincy will roll with Rudi, Kenny Watson and Kenny Irons this year. They just have too many holes to fill on defense (just about everywhere to be honest) and in many mocks a tackle like Sedrick Ellis is slipping because he don't match well with team needs. I think the pick is Ellis, a pass rushing DE like Harvey or Keith Rivers.However, I kinda' like the thought presented earlier on Philly picking Stewart and provide injury insurance and shoring up the position long-term. That would also give them more of a power option than they've had recently.

 

[Buckna]

I think hindsight has clouded your memory. I don't think anyone expected Cincy to take a RB in the first and they certainly didn't expect them to pick Perry. LJ to KC and Jackson to STL were surprises on the level of Stewart to SD.

I concede the fadings of memory on LJ and SJax, but I disagree on Cinci. It was wildly thought they would take a Corner in the first until trading down with Denver and acquiring Deltha O'Neal a couple of weeks before the draft.The big surprise was the name they took, not the position. They had a chance at SJax and traded down again and took Perry. I remember reading that they had Perry ranked as their #1 RB and was the guy they were targeting all along. Boy has that turned out to be a blunder.Edit: Although to be fair to Cinci, everyone expected Dallas to take a RB also, and they passed on SJax TOO!