What to make of the Indy Targets? (1 Viewer)

[Sabertooth]

Good passing attacks start with quarterback play. The Colts have a chance to have a real true stud at the Quarterback position for the next dozen years in Luck. I think Andrew certainly has a chance to reach Cam's numbers as far as passing yardage this season. He's special, he simply is and that passing game is going to take a major stride forward from the subpar product they put on the field last year. That said, I highly doubt Reggie Wayne puts up 3500 yards and 25 touchdowns so some new faces are going to emerge from the rubble of the Peyton Manning Colts. New era, new targets. Let's take a peak.

Reggie Wayne - Wayne is coming off his worst season since 2003 . To say he's been a consistent player is a huge understatement. He is aging and will be yet another year older this year but I think the addition of Luck to the passing attack upgrades him significantly from last year's numbers despite becoming a bit longer in the tooth. He can simply play. He doesn't take huge hits. He catches with the best of them. He is one of the very best in the game still.

Austin Collie has a concussion issue. Scary stuff. I'm not buying this year because he's the originial poster child for concussions. He's last year's version of Jahvid Best. He may not play at all this year. They are going to scrutinize him like no other player. I'm not buying in dynasty either. He'll clog up a roster spot and I doubt he's in the league in 3 years. He's got a soft melon. It sucks because he seems like a great kid and a very good player, but he's damaged goods.

Donnie Avery. You remember Donnie Avery don't you? He was a headscratcher as the 34th player taken in the 2008 draft by the Rams. Injuries have sidelined him for much of his career. He's trying to salvage that career in Indianapolis where he has been tearing it up all preseason. Wait, no the other thing. He's been, you guessed it, hurt all preseason. Well that's not entirely true. He did finally get on the field in this last game and put up a respectable 6 catches on 7 yards. I get the feeling the Colts were trying to see if they wanted him or not in this action. He was used exclusively on underneath routes according to rotoworld which seems strange as he's known as kind of a one-trick pony and they trick is running deep. I think he's probably on the roster bubble to be quite honest.

Lavon Brazill...who? This kid. He's in the mix for targets now, and for the future as well. He's a rookie who came in and has been up and down the depth chart. He started in place of Collie, but was with the 2s tonight according to reports. I like him as a lottery ticket both this year and in the future. In fact he and TY Hilton are a coin flip at this point. But not in the sense that they don't matter or cost a lot. If you can fill out your WR6 and WR7 spots with these two cats in a redraft, you might have something there.

TY Hilton was drafted higher than Brazill but the two are pretty comparable in terms of upside and opportunity. Simply put the upside for opportunities is there with only oft-injure Collie and Avery ahead of them on the depth chart. The upside in terms of quarterback play is as big as any in the league over the long haul with Luck. So unlike Collie, these guys have a pretty good chance as sustained success, we just don't know which one. I could see this being a James Jones/Jordy Nelson type of situation where we don't really know who will emerge for quite some time, but when they do they make you money because they come in big.

Coby Fleener/Dwayne Allen - I think these guys are worthy of discussion but I haven't really looked into it much. I don't think Fleener is going to excel simply because he and Luck played in college together. I've read Allen is a better all around guy. But I don't feel comfortable with either player for this year in a redraft. In a dynasty I have them as a wash at this point so take the cheaper one, which is almost certainly going to be Allen. In a recent dynasty rookie draft I was in, Fleener went at the end of round 1 and Allen wasn't even drafted.

Would love to hear some thoughts on both the short and long term prospects of this mish-mash of players.

 

[tim_whatley]

I agree with the OP that Luck will be great in the future and good this year. He will be better than most are expecting both from a literal and fantasty perspective.

As to targets, I also agree that Wayne is undervalued and Collie too risky. Don't know much about the others expect that Hilton looked pretty good today.

 

[Sabertooth]

IMHO, Colts skill players are good late draft values only because this is going to be a pretty complex situation to predict. We are talking backups and 3rd or 4th stringers on your roster. What do we know? 1) Despite seeing things like AJ Green explode, rookie receivers usually don't tend to give you all that much. 2) While tight ends are starting to look like a much more potent weapon for real teams and FF teams alike, they are still dependent on QB play and Offensive line production. 3) The Colts O line, IMHO, sucks. 4) Despite seeing QB production soar, which does help rookie QBs some, it also causes a spike all across the board for QBs. It doesn't mean Luck isn't a great prospect, he's probably the best QB prospect in the last 15-20 years, but a general spike at the position makes his success relative. It all starts at the O line. Everyone looks at the skill players first, without recognizing that most of the truly elite FF performers in the past decade, often you can attribute some of the credit to unit morale, unit cohesion, unit tenure, unit chemisty and unit talent and health along the O line. You can't carve up a defense if the defense blows past all your blockers and keeps slamming you into the turf. WRs don't get time to run their routes if you get hit right after you take the snap. Your RBs don't look so good when they get hit two yards behind the line of scrimmage all the time. Left Tackle - Anthony CastonzoLeft Guard - Ben IjalanaCenter - Samson SateleRight Guard - Joe Reitz/ Jeff LinkenbachRight Tackle - Winston Justice / Mike McGlynnThis is a patchwork line. Castonzo and Ijalana are holdovers from the previous regime, so there has to be a wait and see approach to see if they pan out. Ijalana is simply brittle. This kid's HMO paperwork probably weighs as much as he does. There's a battle for right guard and neither guy looks great and pretty sure Ijalana won't last the entire season. Satele is a castoff from other organizations for a reason. Justice was a good value pick up for his cost ( IIRC a sixth rounder) Now Luck is skilled and crafty enough to help himself with a pass rush, but this is looking like a team where Fleener is more of a WR and Allen will be kept in more to do a max protect. Reggie Wayne is a great value for a WR3 or WR4, but he was brought back to aid the regime change. This is text book Bill Parcells 101 in terms of turning over a team. Eliminate some players from the old regime. Some early for age or production reasons. Keep one around a little longer and cut him to prove a point to your holdovers, and keep one veteran guy to show the holdovers that you can be rewarded and there is a place if you buy into the new system, even if that system really is looking to toss you within a year or so. Wayne is 33 years old. He's got a lot of tread on his tires now. Doesn't mean he can't give you good value or production, but I think with a rookie QB and a shaky O line, it's asking a lot to talk him up as if he can be a legit WR2 again in absolute terms. The new GM, Grigson, didn't arm up on skill players just for Luck and to exploit Luck's QB prowess, he did so because the Colts have had bad draft after bad draft for a long time under the Polians and there was a wholesale dump of aging skill players. Grigson is getting skill guys he thinks can grow with Luck now, and fill the other holes later that he thinks will have a shorter adjustment period to be quality starters. He needs to see how Castonzo and Ijalana do before he revamps the line. There is still the sunk cost of a 1st and 2nd from the draft before to evaluate. I think you are asking too much of Luck too soon, and Newton's production ( and some of Dalton's) has swayed people the wrong way about what rookie QBs should do. You are buying into the hype because Luck is getting press, or maybe it's your homerism. You can only market two things in pro sports, winning or hope for the future. Of course Luck is getting a ton of press, it's good for the franchise and it's good for the NFL and merchandise sales. But in practical terms, while everyone is looking at this years new Porsche, what is wrong with last years Ferrari? ( i.e. Colin Kapernick, good skill set under a good coach who used to play QB, with a strong defense, a nice mix at RB, an elite TE, a stable franchise, and an underrated line anchored by Iupati and Staley) Sorry, but an old guy, a guy hit in the head one too many times, a retread, some rookies, behind a cobbled together line, all while throwing a rookie into the fire on a team crippled by 3-4 years of bad draft classes isn't my idea of a place to look for an offensive juggernaut waiting to happen.

Great contribution but I think you miss my point. I don't think they will be an offensive juggernaut this season. But I do think they will improve from 2011. I don't think Luck will be a top 10 quarterback this season. I have a hard time seeing the Colts outperform mature offensives like the Falcons, Texans and Bears (let alone the high powered attacks like the Packers, Lions, and Patriots). But they won't be as bad as last year. They will fall somewhere in the middle. Thank you for the insight on the offensive line and that is very important. But offensive lines are kind of tough to predict sometimes. Guys who seem like studs often get by on name recognition and draft pedigree. Bryant McKinnie comes to mind. The best lines work great as a unit. The Packers line for instance, has been make shift for years. No studs at all since .... well ever really. But they work great as a unit and Rodgers get rid of the ball quickly. I think Luck will be the same type of quarterback.Which brings us back to the targets. Somebody is going to get the ball thrown to them outside of Reggie Wayne. I am not sure who but Brazill and Hilton seem like good bets to get some attention. As you stated earlier, the offensive pieces were drafted this season. I think it is reasonable to think that next season the draft is concentrated on the defensive side of the ball, meaning current rookies are going to get a pretty long leash because they won't have competition except with each other.

 

[duaneok66]

IMHO, Colts skill players are good late draft values only because this is going to be a pretty complex situation to predict. We are talking backups and 3rd or 4th stringers on your roster. What do we know? 1) Despite seeing things like AJ Green explode, rookie receivers usually don't tend to give you all that much. 2) While tight ends are starting to look like a much more potent weapon for real teams and FF teams alike, they are still dependent on QB play and Offensive line production. 3) The Colts O line, IMHO, sucks. 4) Despite seeing QB production soar, which does help rookie QBs some, it also causes a spike all across the board for QBs. It doesn't mean Luck isn't a great prospect, he's probably the best QB prospect in the last 15-20 years, but a general spike at the position makes his success relative. It all starts at the O line. Everyone looks at the skill players first, without recognizing that most of the truly elite FF performers in the past decade, often you can attribute some of the credit to unit morale, unit cohesion, unit tenure, unit chemisty and unit talent and health along the O line. You can't carve up a defense if the defense blows past all your blockers and keeps slamming you into the turf. WRs don't get time to run their routes if you get hit right after you take the snap. Your RBs don't look so good when they get hit two yards behind the line of scrimmage all the time. Left Tackle - Anthony CastonzoLeft Guard - Ben IjalanaCenter - Samson SateleRight Guard - Joe Reitz/ Jeff LinkenbachRight Tackle - Winston Justice / Mike McGlynnThis is a patchwork line. Castonzo and Ijalana are holdovers from the previous regime, so there has to be a wait and see approach to see if they pan out. Ijalana is simply brittle. This kid's HMO paperwork probably weighs as much as he does. There's a battle for right guard and neither guy looks great and pretty sure Ijalana won't last the entire season. Satele is a castoff from other organizations for a reason. Justice was a good value pick up for his cost ( IIRC a sixth rounder) Now Luck is skilled and crafty enough to help himself with a pass rush, but this is looking like a team where Fleener is more of a WR and Allen will be kept in more to do a max protect. Reggie Wayne is a great value for a WR3 or WR4, but he was brought back to aid the regime change. This is text book Bill Parcells 101 in terms of turning over a team. Eliminate some players from the old regime. Some early for age or production reasons. Keep one around a little longer and cut him to prove a point to your holdovers, and keep one veteran guy to show the holdovers that you can be rewarded and there is a place if you buy into the new system, even if that system really is looking to toss you within a year or so. Wayne is 33 years old. He's got a lot of tread on his tires now. Doesn't mean he can't give you good value or production, but I think with a rookie QB and a shaky O line, it's asking a lot to talk him up as if he can be a legit WR2 again in absolute terms. The new GM, Grigson, didn't arm up on skill players just for Luck and to exploit Luck's QB prowess, he did so because the Colts have had bad draft after bad draft for a long time under the Polians and there was a wholesale dump of aging skill players. Grigson is getting skill guys he thinks can grow with Luck now, and fill the other holes later that he thinks will have a shorter adjustment period to be quality starters. He needs to see how Castonzo and Ijalana do before he revamps the line. There is still the sunk cost of a 1st and 2nd from the draft before to evaluate. I think you are asking too much of Luck too soon, and Newton's production ( and some of Dalton's) has swayed people the wrong way about what rookie QBs should do. You are buying into the hype because Luck is getting press, or maybe it's your homerism. You can only market two things in pro sports, winning or hope for the future. Of course Luck is getting a ton of press, it's good for the franchise and it's good for the NFL and merchandise sales. But in practical terms, while everyone is looking at this years new Porsche, what is wrong with last years Ferrari? ( i.e. Colin Kapernick, good skill set under a good coach who used to play QB, with a strong defense, a nice mix at RB, an elite TE, a stable franchise, and an underrated line anchored by Iupati and Staley) Sorry, but an old guy, a guy hit in the head one too many times, a retread, some rookies, behind a cobbled together line, all while throwing a rookie into the fire on a team crippled by 3-4 years of bad draft classes isn't my idea of a place to look for an offensive juggernaut waiting to happen.

post of the month.Thank you for the detailed analysis of the OL - too often they get ignored (as you mentioned)

 

[Shutout]

IMHO, Colts skill players are good late draft values only because this is going to be a pretty complex situation to predict. We are talking backups and 3rd or 4th stringers on your roster. What do we know? 1) Despite seeing things like AJ Green explode, rookie receivers usually don't tend to give you all that much. 2) While tight ends are starting to look like a much more potent weapon for real teams and FF teams alike, they are still dependent on QB play and Offensive line production. 3) The Colts O line, IMHO, sucks. 4) Despite seeing QB production soar, which does help rookie QBs some, it also causes a spike all across the board for QBs. It doesn't mean Luck isn't a great prospect, he's probably the best QB prospect in the last 15-20 years, but a general spike at the position makes his success relative. It all starts at the O line. Everyone looks at the skill players first, without recognizing that most of the truly elite FF performers in the past decade, often you can attribute some of the credit to unit morale, unit cohesion, unit tenure, unit chemisty and unit talent and health along the O line. You can't carve up a defense if the defense blows past all your blockers and keeps slamming you into the turf. WRs don't get time to run their routes if you get hit right after you take the snap. Your RBs don't look so good when they get hit two yards behind the line of scrimmage all the time. Left Tackle - Anthony CastonzoLeft Guard - Ben IjalanaCenter - Samson SateleRight Guard - Joe Reitz/ Jeff LinkenbachRight Tackle - Winston Justice / Mike McGlynnThis is a patchwork line. Castonzo and Ijalana are holdovers from the previous regime, so there has to be a wait and see approach to see if they pan out. Ijalana is simply brittle. This kid's HMO paperwork probably weighs as much as he does. There's a battle for right guard and neither guy looks great and pretty sure Ijalana won't last the entire season. Satele is a castoff from other organizations for a reason. Justice was a good value pick up for his cost ( IIRC a sixth rounder) Now Luck is skilled and crafty enough to help himself with a pass rush, but this is looking like a team where Fleener is more of a WR and Allen will be kept in more to do a max protect. Reggie Wayne is a great value for a WR3 or WR4, but he was brought back to aid the regime change. This is text book Bill Parcells 101 in terms of turning over a team. Eliminate some players from the old regime. Some early for age or production reasons. Keep one around a little longer and cut him to prove a point to your holdovers, and keep one veteran guy to show the holdovers that you can be rewarded and there is a place if you buy into the new system, even if that system really is looking to toss you within a year or so. Wayne is 33 years old. He's got a lot of tread on his tires now. Doesn't mean he can't give you good value or production, but I think with a rookie QB and a shaky O line, it's asking a lot to talk him up as if he can be a legit WR2 again in absolute terms. The new GM, Grigson, didn't arm up on skill players just for Luck and to exploit Luck's QB prowess, he did so because the Colts have had bad draft after bad draft for a long time under the Polians and there was a wholesale dump of aging skill players. Grigson is getting skill guys he thinks can grow with Luck now, and fill the other holes later that he thinks will have a shorter adjustment period to be quality starters. He needs to see how Castonzo and Ijalana do before he revamps the line. There is still the sunk cost of a 1st and 2nd from the draft before to evaluate. I think you are asking too much of Luck too soon, and Newton's production ( and some of Dalton's) has swayed people the wrong way about what rookie QBs should do. You are buying into the hype because Luck is getting press, or maybe it's your homerism. You can only market two things in pro sports, winning or hope for the future. Of course Luck is getting a ton of press, it's good for the franchise and it's good for the NFL and merchandise sales. But in practical terms, while everyone is looking at this years new Porsche, what is wrong with last years Ferrari? ( i.e. Colin Kapernick, good skill set under a good coach who used to play QB, with a strong defense, a nice mix at RB, an elite TE, a stable franchise, and an underrated line anchored by Iupati and Staley) Sorry, but an old guy, a guy hit in the head one too many times, a retread, some rookies, behind a cobbled together line, all while throwing a rookie into the fire on a team crippled by 3-4 years of bad draft classes isn't my idea of a place to look for an offensive juggernaut waiting to happen.

post of the month.Thank you for the detailed analysis of the OL - too often they get ignored (as you mentioned)

THe beautiful thing about football: I bet you could say almost the exact thing, across the board for Carolina last year. I can buy the hteory of everything posted here, but in reality, I don't think Max protect is in this Colts team's vocabularly. I think they would much rather stress the defense by sending out all these pass catching threats and be comfortable in allowing Luck to use his legs, if needed. Also, it's pretty obvious that luck isn't the typical rookie. It takes him a nano-second to decide where to launch that lasergun arm of his. I thin teams, by and large, will be burned a couple times a game if they go into it thinking "hey, let's rattle and overwhelm this rookie by putting pressure on him." Luck, IMO, is very much capable of reading and picking up where to go with the ball.Overall, I think Wayne is going to be the consistent, dependable guy for FF teams and for Luck in real life, with everyone else getting their 15 minutes of fame on any given week.

 

[Sabertooth]

The Packers offensive line was considered bottom five in the league while Rodgers was breaking records left and right. Just sayin. Line is important, but not the only variable.

 

[VA703]

wayne is a value pick at his current adp

staying away from collie.. i feel one mor concuss and hes done with

the other receivers are too much of a gamble for consistancy

 

[LHUCKS]

Wayne is the only guy I'm targeting in standard drafts...Fleener in deep leagues late.

Avery is interesting in unique formats like best ball or survivor.

 

[EBF]

I like Wayne in redraft leagues. He should have a nice season.

In terms of dynasty, I don't think the long-term #1 and #2 receivers are on the roster. Hilton is purely a slot guy and Brazill was a late round pick. I would expect the Colts to come back in and maybe add a WR with their first round pick next season. The guys who were on the board for them when they took Fleener and Allen don't really fit the conventional Colts WR mold, which might be why they passed.

 

[GregR]

On the tight ends specifically... so far in games when Luck is facing pressure, the tight ends seem to be disappearing as they are kept in more to keep Luck on his feet. Indy just isn't risking his health, which is probably wise.

Assuming that translates to the regular season, and I imagine it will... I think any value that Fleener or Allen has probably drops noticeably against teams with a good pass rush. I drafted Allen as a very late, 4th TE sleeper in a redraft that starts 2 TE. But if he even gets a bye week start I'll be surprised. And I'm not sure Fleener will have any more value than Allen.