What weight values do you choose in the DD? (1 Viewer)

[Marek]

In the game-by-game section of the DD, what values do some of you use to weight your playoff and conference games?

Edit: reworded to clarify

 

[Toads]

There are soooo many variables, soooo many ways to tweak the DD that it can be a maize to start with.

An easy way to get a handle on your league is to figure out the mendoza line for each position. an example: in a 16 team league, where there are two WR's starting each week....then there are 32 WR's that determine your zero line, 16 #-1 WR's + 16 #2-WR's. That determines where the zero line is for WR's....install that value in other parts of the program....work back and forth between you're league and the values your setting as zero base lines.

You can use the pre-canned setups, and work back and forth between your own creations, to get a feel for your leagues scoring system.

 

[Marek]

There are soooo many variables, soooo many ways to tweak the DD that it can be a maize to start with.An easy way to get a handle on your league is to figure out the mendoza line for each position. an example: in a 16 team league, where there are two WR's starting each week....then there are 32 WR's that determine your zero line, 16 #-1 WR's + 16 #2-WR's. That determines where the zero line is for WR's....install that value in other parts of the program....work back and forth between you're league and the values your setting as zero base lines.You can use the pre-canned setups, and work back and forth between your own creations, to get a feel for your leagues scoring system.

I'm not really asking about baselines for player positions. I'm wondering how much importance you all weight each week with. This is seen under the "Game by Game Projections" in the DD. In other words, your playoff weeks are very important, so you would want to boost the projected points for all players by some multiple for that week to indicate the increased importance of that week as compared to others.Currently, I use 1.4 for our playoff weeks and 1.2 as a multiple for the weeks I'm facing a conference opponent. But I wonder if anyone else here has some better recommendations for it since I am completely guessing.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I love the DD, but have only used it once to draft with (and I lost all three leagues). Typically, I use it as a starting tool for my cheatsheets and projections, and also to do mock drafts.

I also have a buddy who said the year he used DD at his draft he finished in 8th place of 12...and he's usually a solid owner.

I think it's a GREAT tool, but I won't use it to draft my team....more as a helping hand.

 

[CalBear]

I love the DD, but have only used it once to draft with (and I lost all three leagues). Typically, I use it as a starting tool for my cheatsheets and projections, and also to do mock drafts. I also have a buddy who said the year he used DD at his draft he finished in 8th place of 12...and he's usually a solid owner.I think it's a GREAT tool, but I won't use it to draft my team....more as a helping hand.

The plural of "anecdote" is not "data".In any case, you don't use DD by just choosing the "best value pick" at every chance. You use it because it gives you a lot of information that you couldn't otherwise have during the draft/auction. You still have to use your brain.In answer to the original question, I don't weight playoff games differently; I think that's getting into over-analysis.

 

[Marek]

In answer to the original question, I don't weight playoff games differently; I think that's getting into over-analysis.

Accounting for an easy playoff schedule is over-analysis? I don't quite follow.

 

[Chaka]

I love the DD, but have only used it once to draft with (and I lost all three leagues). Typically, I use it as a starting tool for my cheatsheets and projections, and also to do mock drafts. I also have a buddy who said the year he used DD at his draft he finished in 8th place of 12...and he's usually a solid owner.I think it's a GREAT tool, but I won't use it to draft my team....more as a helping hand.

I think many people who use the DD will input their own stats for the individual players, customizing it to their leagues.I have several years of data on my league and I calculate the average scoring finish of all the players according to my league and first removing their names (e.g. the #1 QB regardless of who it is scores an average of 273 points over the last 5 seasons, the #1 RB puts up 298). I rename all the players in a VBD cheat sheet by position and rank (e.g. RB1, RB2, RB3 etc) and input their projected fantasy finish according to my league data and scoring system. This is the sheet I will import into the DD.Before the draft I use my cheat sheets to enter the players names into my custom VBD sheet according to how I think they will finish (e.g. RB1 = LT, RB2 = SJax, RB3 = Travis Henry etc), and import that sheet into the DD.I then use the DD exclusively at the draft.FWIW Last season was the first year I did this and I won my league. Then again I won it three years ago using the DD the way you do.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

In answer to the original question, I don't weight playoff games differently; I think that's getting into over-analysis.

Accounting for an easy playoff schedule is over-analysis? I don't quite follow.

Worry about getting there. There are too many variables along the way that can change everything (for a day you may never see no less), so focus on the bigger picture. Kind of like micro-managing something 4 months from now that never comes to fruition. Futile.

 

[Chaka]

In answer to the original question, I don't weight playoff games differently; I think that's getting into over-analysis.

Accounting for an easy playoff schedule is over-analysis? I don't quite follow.

Worry about getting there. There are too many variables along the way that can change everything (for a day you may never see no less), so focus on the bigger picture. Kind of like micro-managing something 4 months from now that never comes to fruition. Futile.

I agree. I don't use playoff weights and I set all the projected injury variables to 1.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I love the DD, but have only used it once to draft with (and I lost all three leagues). Typically, I use it as a starting tool for my cheatsheets and projections, and also to do mock drafts. I also have a buddy who said the year he used DD at his draft he finished in 8th place of 12...and he's usually a solid owner.I think it's a GREAT tool, but I won't use it to draft my team....more as a helping hand.

A buddy of mine brought his computer to the draft and I suspected he was using the DD. After the draft he told me he was. Of all the teams last year his had the best depth at all posistions, and that is what I feel the DD helps most with. During rounds 8-16 its hard to decide where the value really is and the DD will help you sort through that. His team did not win but I don't feel that was due to the DD.....a lot of fantasy football is luck. This is the first year Im going to use the DD...should be interesting (not to mention I will have an idea of who my buddy will be looking at)

 

[barndog]

I can see the reasoning behind not weighting the playoffs differently, but what I'd like to see is a test of how much difference it makes. I may do it later.

I do weight the division games greater, if I'm in a league with divisions. Based on info from Bruce I think I apply 1.1 to those.

 

[David Dodds]

I start out weighting like this:

Weeks 1-4 = 1.5

Week 5-11 = 1

Weeks 12 -16 = 0.6

I do this because I want a team that wins EARLY. This does a few things. It sets you up to trade while player values are the highest. The playoffs don't matter unless you get there.

After round 6, I tweak the values to reflect this:

For games I am winning, I set the value = 0.5

For games where it's close (shows a question mark), I set the value at 1.0

For games I am losing, I either set the value at 2.0 or 0.0. I set it at 2.0 if I think I can recover. If I am WAY BEHIND, I consider just abandoning this week and get stronger everywhere else.

I continue this until there are 6-8 rounds left. If I believe this is a playoff team (based on wins/losses showing up on the screen), then I put all of my late round emphasis on a few key iffy weeks where I am close and the playoffs. My final push might be setting weeks 4,5, 9, 14, 15, 16 all to 2.0 and everything else to zero. My goal here is find a few diamonds that can help with the playoffs. Additionally this adds the benefit of drafting kickers and defenses that should be good in the playoffs.

 

[Marek]

I'd never really considered it like that. Good info.

 

[barndog]

I start out weighting like this:Weeks 1-4 = 1.5Week 5-11 = 1Weeks 12 -16 = 0.6...

Well, I hate to quibble with Member No. 1, but with DD one thing is that you can be getting an L just because you haven't drafted a QB or DEF or TE yet. You bump up those weights despite that? I haven't tested this, but I guess I might consider doing it after round 9 or so.

 

[freeannyong]

I have several years of data on my league and I calculate the average scoring finish of all the players according to my league and first removing their names (e.g. the #1 QB regardless of who it is scores an average of 273 points over the last 5 seasons, the #1 RB puts up 298). I rename all the players in a VBD cheat sheet by position and rank (e.g. RB1, RB2, RB3 etc) and input their projected fantasy finish according to my league data and scoring system. This is the sheet I will import into the DD.Before the draft I use my cheat sheets to enter the players names into my custom VBD sheet according to how I think they will finish (e.g. RB1 = LT, RB2 = SJax, RB3 = Travis Henry etc), and import that sheet into the DD.

Can you explain in more detail how to do this? Do you use projections dominator? How do you make the VBD cheat sheet? Thanks.

 

[CalBear]

In answer to the original question, I don't weight playoff games differently; I think that's getting into over-analysis.

Accounting for an easy playoff schedule is over-analysis? I don't quite follow.

For one thing, you have to get to the playoffs. For another, it's really hard to accurately predict which defenses will really be the strongest in weeks 13-17. I might think about it as a tie-breaker between two players I can't tell apart, but I would never want to choose a lower-ranked player (in terms of total expected points) just because he is projected to have an easy playoff schedule.

 

[barndog]

I did some quick runs. All respect to Mr. Dodds, but it really made little difference whether I left the game-by-game weights alone, weighted toward division foes, or used the Dodds weights to try to win early, fill gaps, and identify late gems.

Based on team strength (total), and early wins (weeks 1 to 4), I found no real differences. In particular, the first six picks were exactly the same regardless of the weighting. One small difference was the Dodds weights converted one '?' to a 'W" (from 12 to 13 W's).

One notable result, though, was that using the "complimentary--any" weighting exclusively from the 9th round on led to one L (in the playoffs, no less) and a slightly inferior team strength score (-32). Curious.

My conclusion is that a savvy drafter using DD may be able to do well no matter what the weights are. My next challenge, I guess, is to find situations where it does matter.

Notes: This was for picking 3rd in a 10-team league (PPR) [an upcoming real draft for me]. [i had other teams drafting by ADP (Magazine avgs).]