where will Calvin Johnson rank? (1 Viewer)

[JayMan]

We all know about the rookie WR theory...

We all know that CJ is a definite 'can't miss' project (that sometimes miss)...

We all know that he has the best measurables and intangibles coming out of college that many have seen in a while...

We all know that he's got Mike Martz calling the plays - and Roy Williams on the other side...

Knowing all this... where will he end up in the all-time rookie WR list?

(Sorry Jeff - don't want this to end up being CJ's spotlight!)

Using FBG scoring (noPPR) and accordnig to Dodds's projections... he would end up ranked 29th - interestingly enough between Roy Williams (his teammate) and Larry Fitzgerald (the guy he's being compared to)... while he would rank 19th in PPR leagues...

Top50 WR rookie seasons - going back to 1960

01-Randy Moss--------1998-21--69-1313-17-233.302-Bill Groman-------1960-24--72-1473-12-219.303-Anquan Boldin-----2003-23-101-1377--8-185.704-John Jefferson----1978-22--56-1001-13-178.105-Bob Hayes---------1965-23--46-1003-12-172.306-Michael Clayton---2004-22--80-1193--7-161.307-Billy Brooks------1986-22--65-1131--8-161.108-Marques Colston---2006-23--70-1038--8-151.809-Sammy White-------1976-22--51--906-10-150.610-Terry Glenn-------1996-22--90-1132--6-149.211-Cris Collinsworth-1981-22--67-1009--8-148.912-Kevin Johnson-----1999-24--66--986--8-146.613-Eddie Kennison----1996-23--54--924--9-146.414-Paul Warfield-----1964-22--52--920--9-146.015-Joey Galloway-----1995-24--67-1039--7-145.916-Eddie Brown-------1985-23--53--942--8-142.217-Randy Vataha------1971-23--51--872--9-141.218-Louis Lipps-------1984-22--45--860--9-140.019-Bucky Pope--------1964-23--25--786-10-138.620-Lee Evans---------2004-23--48--843--9-138.321-Isaac Curtis------1973-23--45--843--9-138.322-Chris Sanders-----1995-23--35--823--9-136.323-Keyshawn Johnson--1996-24--63--844--8-132.424-Marvin Harrison---1996-24--64--836--8-131.625-Willie Gault------1983-23--40--836--8-131.626-Daryl Turner------1984-23--35--715-10-131.527-Chris Chambers----2001-23--48--883--7-130.328-Anthony Carter----1985-25--43--821--8-130.129-Roy Williams------2004-23--54--817--8-129.730-Larry Fitzgerald--2004-21--58--780--8-126.031-Ernest Givins-----1986-22--61-1062--3-124.232-Gary Clark--------1985-23--72--926--5-122.633-Andre Johnson-----2003-22--66--976--4-121.634-Bobby Johnson-----1984-23--48--795--7-121.535-Jim Colclough-----1960-24--49--666--9-120.636-Fred Barnett------1990-24--36--721--8-120.137-James Lofton------1978-22--46--818--6-117.838-Elbert Dubenion---1960-27--42--752--7-117.239-Charlie Brown-----1982-24--32--690--8-117.040-Darnay Scott------1994-22--46--866--5-116.641-Brian Blades------1988-23--40--682--8-116.242-Al Frazier--------1961-26--47--799--6-115.943-Torry Holt--------1999-23--52--788--6-114.844-Oronde Gadsden----1998-27--48--713--7-113.345-Alfred Jenkins----1975-23--38--767--6-112.746-Charley Taylor----1964-23--53--814--5-111.447-Paul Flatley------1963-22--51--867--4-110.748-Jerry Rice--------1985-23--49--927--3-110.749-Ken Burrow--------1971-23--33--741--6-110.150-HartLee Dykes-----1989-23--49--795--5-109.5

 

[Dhizz]

Top50 WR rookie seasons - going back to 1960

01-Randy Moss--------1998-21--69-1313-17-233.3

02-Bill Groman-------1960-24--72-1473-12-219.3

03-Anquan Boldin-----2003-23-101-1377--8-185.7

Crazy to think how good Moss was.And Boldin. People still don't give him his due.

It's hard to project a rookie for 80/1000/8, but Calvin landed in the perfect spot to do it. If he starts, he should put up Flurrey numbers, which would put him close to the top 10 (maybe a few more TDs) on that list..

 

[FantasyTrader]

Still cannot wrap my mind around how Michael Clayton did that as a rookie yet is who he is. Sorry for the hijack.

 

[BroadwayG]

50+

 

[corpcow]

Still cannot wrap my mind around how Michael Clayton did that as a rookie yet is who he is. Sorry for the hijack.

Injuries can do that.

 

[JayMan]

50+

Sorry that I didn't add that poll choice - that's predicting less than 700yds and 6TDs...Injuries, not playing much or just not good enough?...I can understand for the first factor (even though I have no clue how you predict an injury)... but I'm pretty sure he starts from day one and is good enough to grab for 50yds/gm

 

[BroadwayG]

50+

Sorry that I didn't add that poll choice - that's predicting less than 700yds and 6TDs...Injuries, not playing much or just not good enough?...I can understand for the first factor (even though I have no clue how you predict an injury)... but I'm pretty sure he starts from day one and is good enough to grab for 50yds/gm

If you want to project 1000+ and 10+ for him that's cool. He is certainly on the right team in the right division for it.But I'm not going to throw out any more that 800/3 for his numbers until a) I see he's developed a good rapport with his QBb) I see how he works against an actual NFL defense in a live gamec) I'm convinced that Detroit will compete enough to have one starting QB all year

 

[PsychoMan]

the 15 spot - right there with joey galloway

 

[kensat30]

Calvin looks way overrated to me. How early are you guys taking him in redraft leagues? Looking at the totals on this list, I'd say the consensus has him about 20 spots higher than where I would predict his totals to fall.

Even Larry Fitzgerald only produced less than 800/8 as a rookie. Situation more so than talent determines rookie WR numbers IMO.

 

[JayMan]

50+

Sorry that I didn't add that poll choice - that's predicting less than 700yds and 6TDs...Injuries, not playing much or just not good enough?...I can understand for the first factor (even though I have no clue how you predict an injury)... but I'm pretty sure he starts from day one and is good enough to grab for 50yds/gm

If you want to project 1000+ and 10+ for him that's cool. He is certainly on the right team in the right division for it.But I'm not going to throw out any more that 800/3 for his numbers until a) I see he's developed a good rapport with his QBb) I see how he works against an actual NFL defense in a live gamec) I'm convinced that Detroit will compete enough to have one starting QB all year

Fair enough... good points!In fact, I'm not projecting 1000/10 for him... probably in the middle between these lofty projections and yours (something along the 900/6 values - around the 25/30 spot)... I was just trying to find out why you had him this low... thanks for the input

 

[TheLastDispatch]

I'm expecting numbers similar to Bobby Johnson's with maybe a few more catches.

 

[JayMan]

Weighted average results so far are predicting a 153 FBG FPts season...

Ranking him aournd WR8-WR10 in rookie seasons...

Very similar to Colston numbers... very interesting...

 

[simmonjm]

Barring an injury to Jon Kitna or a total collapse Calvin Johnson will finish top 3 all time among rookies. He has so many positives in his favor. Schedule, Pass happy offense, a sorry defense. Calvin Johnson is the most highly touted WR since Randy Moss. He is in a similar situation as R. Moss was (pass happy offense, opposite a dominant WR). I am predicting big things for the rookie. 1300 yards and 11 tds

 

[MelKiperJr]

Barring an injury to Jon Kitna or a total collapse Calvin Johnson will finish top 3 all time among rookies. He has so many positives in his favor. Schedule, Pass happy offense, a sorry defense. Calvin Johnson is the most highly touted WR since Randy Moss. He is in a similar situation as R. Moss was (pass happy offense, opposite a dominant WR). I am predicting big things for the rookie. 1300 yards and 11 tds

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Still cannot wrap my mind around how Michael Clayton did that as a rookie yet is who he is. Sorry for the hijack.

Injuries can do that.

Um... no.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I'm guessing 10-20. A lot more likelihood that he drops to 20-40 than into top 10.

Martz, Kitna, Roy, KJ / Tatum. Lots of good teammates & coaching == good situation.

 

[simmonjm]

Barring an injury to Jon Kitna or a total collapse Calvin Johnson will finish top 3 all time among rookies. He has so many positives in his favor. Schedule, Pass happy offense, a sorry defense. Calvin Johnson is the most highly touted WR since Randy Moss. He is in a similar situation as R. Moss was (pass happy offense, opposite a dominant WR). I am predicting big things for the rookie. 1300 yards and 11 tds

Mel Kiper Jr please stop laughing for a minute and give me your lions projections specifically passing yards and TDs. If you go off of last years numbers 4200 yards and 21 tds given that most feel that Detroit has improved their offensive line (the biggest problem on offense last year), have an adequate back up if Kevin Jones cant play, talent difference between Furrey/C. Johnson and will be in the second year of Martz offense it is reasonable imo to assume that Detroit will improve upon their numbers from last year. So lets say 4400 yards and somewhere in the neighborhood of 25-28 touchdowns. Roy Williams- 1200 yards 8-10 tdsCalvin Johnson 1300 yards 8-11 tdsTatum Bell/Kevin Jones 850 yards 3-4 tdsWR3 and TE ~900 yards and 4-5 tdsI dont understand why its so laughable to think that one of the most highly touted rookie WR in the past decade landing in a perfect situation cant attain 1300 yards and 11 tds.

 

[Chunky Soup]

Calvin looks way overrated to me. How early are you guys taking him in redraft leagues? Looking at the totals on this list, I'd say the consensus has him about 20 spots higher than where I would predict his totals to fall.Even Larry Fitzgerald only produced less than 800/8 as a rookie. Situation more so than talent determines rookie WR numbers IMO.

Care to explain why he looks way overrated? And as far as Fitz, Calvin is a better prospect and in a better situation.

 

[Phlash]

DocT, that is debatable - Fitz was the best best prospect at WR since Randy Moss... I'd say they are about equal as far as rookie hype goes. Remember, Fitz ran a 4.4, has godly hands, runs great routes, and is 6'4" 210. Sure, Johnson is 6'5" 230 and runs a 4.3, but Fitz set absurd NCAA receiving records.

 

[Domination]

CJ2 is being overrated for one simple fact. To expect a rookie to come into the league and put up Top 10 rookie WR numbers of ALL TIME is absurd. He is going into a good situation and has all the tool to succeed, but to think he will instantly become the next great WR in his rookie year is asking too much. I think he will have a rookie year with numbers very similar to Fitz's, and the funny thing about that is that those are good numbers for a rookie WR and people will say that he underperformed.

 

[JayMan]

I've restricted the list to the acitve players (adding Keyshawn)... and it looks like this...

01-Randy Moss--------1998-21--69-1313-17-233.303-Anquan Boldin-----2003-23-101-1377--8-185.706-Michael Clayton---2004-22--80-1193--7-161.308-Marques Colston---2006-23--70-1038--8-151.810-Terry Glenn-------1996-22--90-1132--6-149.213-Eddie Kennison----1996-23--54--924--9-146.415-Joey Galloway-----1995-24--67-1039--7-145.920-Lee Evans---------2004-23--48--843--9-138.323-Keyshawn Johnson--1996-24--63--844--8-132.424-Marvin Harrison---1996-24--64--836--8-131.627-Chris Chambers----2001-23--48--883--7-130.329-Roy Williams------2004-23--54--817--8-129.730-Larry Fitzgerald--2004-21--58--780--8-126.033-Andre Johnson-----2003-22--66--976--4-121.643-Torry Holt--------1999-23--52--788--6-114.8From what we can see here (poll results) FBG board members are predicting a Top5 active WR rookie season from CJ... Interestingly enough - these projections are far and beyond what Evans, Keyshawn, Harrison, Roy Williams, Fitz, AJ and Holt produced in their rookie years (not saying that a rookie season is representative of a WR career though)... are we only seeing rookie hype? Was Fitz projected to get CJ's numbers in his rookie season? Or is CJ's situation that much of a plus over Fitz's rookie campaign?...

On the other hand, why can't CJ be Claytonesque or Colstonesque in his rookie season?... I don't think I would be able to find a single NFL fan that doesn't think CJ has more upside than Clayton and Colston entering their rookie season? (remember that guy from Hofstra from a year ago that no one took in their rookie drafts and had to grab him on the waiver wire in their dynasty leagues?)... Why can't the guy that is 6'5'' 235, runs a 4.35, has sick hands, incredible body control and all the intangibles you look for in a WR exceed the numbers from an unknown from Hofstra?...

Just asking...

 

[-OZ-]

I've restricted the list to the acitve players (adding Keyshawn)... and it looks like this...

01-Randy Moss--------1998-21--69-1313-17-233.303-Anquan Boldin-----2003-23-101-1377--8-185.706-Michael Clayton---2004-22--80-1193--7-161.308-Marques Colston---2006-23--70-1038--8-151.810-Terry Glenn-------1996-22--90-1132--6-149.213-Eddie Kennison----1996-23--54--924--9-146.415-Joey Galloway-----1995-24--67-1039--7-145.920-Lee Evans---------2004-23--48--843--9-138.323-Keyshawn Johnson--1996-24--63--844--8-132.424-Marvin Harrison---1996-24--64--836--8-131.627-Chris Chambers----2001-23--48--883--7-130.329-Roy Williams------2004-23--54--817--8-129.730-Larry Fitzgerald--2004-21--58--780--8-126.033-Andre Johnson-----2003-22--66--976--4-121.643-Torry Holt--------1999-23--52--788--6-114.8

From what we can see here (poll results) FBG board members are predicting a Top5 active WR rookie season from CJ... Interestingly enough - these projections are far and beyond what Evans, Keyshawn, Harrison, Roy Williams, Fitz, AJ and Holt produced in their rookie years (not saying that a rookie season is representative of a WR career though)... are we only seeing rookie hype? Was Fitz projected to get CJ's numbers in his rookie season? Or is CJ's situation that much of a plus over Fitz's rookie campaign?... On the other hand, why can't CJ be Claytonesque or Colstonesque in his rookie season?... I don't think I would be able to find a single NFL fan that doesn't think CJ has more upside than Clayton and Colston entering their rookie season? (remember that guy from Hofstra from a year ago that no one took in their rookie drafts and had to grab him on the waiver wire in their dynasty leagues?)... Why can't the guy that is 6'5'' 235, runs a 4.35, has sick hands, incredible body control and all the intangibles you look for in a WR exceed the numbers from an unknown from Hofstra?...Just asking...

Drew Brees, a much better RB duo, a better OL, and lack of another go-to WR?The stars aligned for Colston last year. Great player, but if he played for most other teams, he wouldn't have had the same level of success. Detroit's offense bodes well for Calvin, but the stars don't line up quite the same.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Playing under Martz and being on a team that has poor defense and in a division outside the Bears who's defenses are not good....he has a shot to put up good numbers if he's as good as everyone says he is.

The one thing he doesn't have going for him is he WON'T be the NO.1 option, Roy Williams will be. That could change over time but that won't change this year unless Williams get injured.