Chase Stuart
Footballguy
I've got four systems that I use to rank QBs. All of them compare a QB's production to the rest of the league, so they all account for era. I multiply the difference between a QB's average production to some league standard, multiplied by the QB's number of attempts. This does a nice job of rewarding lots of production and/or really great production on a low number of attempts. That being said, they all have some differences.
System 1 - compares QB's adjusted net yards per pass attempt to 3/4 of the league average rate; includes a bonus for rushing. Net means it includes sacks allowed data.
Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe (were they separated at birth), Kerry Collins, etc., all come in pretty high in this system. That's because when comparing to 3/4 of the league average (as opposed to 100% of the league average, like the others), you really bump up the compilers. On the other hand, Favre gets bumped up high here, too. He ranks 2nd on this list, 9th on System 2, and 21st and 24th in the others. Jon Kitna, Steve DeBerg, and Jake Plummer rank high too.
On the other side, Roger Staubach, Otto Graham, Norm Van Brocklin, Kurt Warner, all rank low. Once again, that's an attempts issue.
I think this system is best for judging "Which QB had the best career."
System 2 - compared adjusted net yards per pass to the league average. No bonus for rushing.
This is good for what I call "best passer ever" lists. Compared to the previous system, it eliminates rushing stats and decreases the value of compilers.
So Vinny, Bledsoe, and also Randall Cunningham and Vick get dropped pretty far. Jim Harbaugh drops.
Staubach, Warner, Graham get bumped up.
System 3 - compares adjusted yards per pass to the league average. No bonus for rushing, and no sack data involved.
So what does eliminating sack data do? Steve DeBerg drops a ton. So does Dan Marino. Derek Anderson, Peyton Manning, Byron Leftwich all avoid the sack well, and they all drop in this system. Aikman, Favre and Fouts fall, too. Cunningham jumps up, as does Otto Graham (that one's a bit complicated to explain). Frank Tarkenon moves up. Steve Young moves from 5th or 6th best to 2nd best because of his ability to avoid sacks. Unitas jumps a ton, too.
I also use this system for "best passer ever" lists.
System 4 - compares adjusted yards per pass to the league average, with a bonus for rushing.
I call this one the best for "best QB ever lists." It has the nice advantage of rewarding greatness and including rushing stats.
By including rushing stats in System 4 over System 3, Vick obviously benefits the most. Archie Manning does, too, as he was a pretty decent runner. Wade Wilson. Steve Young, Cunningham and Tarkenton move up, too. Otto Graham, Marino, Montana move down. Moon, Peyton, move down too.
Short recap:
System 1
High rankers: Testaverde, Bledsoe, Collins. Vinny ranks 25th here, and not in the top 600 on any of the other lists. Bledsoe ranks 27th, and not in the top 600 on any other list. Collins 43rd, and not top 600 on any other list.
Low rankers: Otto Graham (10th; 1st, 2nd and 4th on the other lists). Staubach (18th; 8th, 8th and 7th on the other lists). Kurt Warner (29th; 13th, 14th and 15th on the others). Tony Romo (122nd; 52nd, 61st, 64th on the others).
System 2
High rankers: Mark Rypien - 37th here; not top 60 anywhere else. Doug Williams - 47th here; 75-111-105 on the others. Peyton Manning and Joe Montana also have their highest rankings on this list, although only by one spot. Jeff Garcia (22; 33-38-38). Carson Palmer - 45; not top 60 any other list.
Low rankers: Randall Cunningham- 538th on this list, top 50 on the other three. Fran Tarkenton - 23rd on this; top 10 on the others. Dave Krieg - 87th here; top 50 on the others. Chris Chandler - 414th; top 80 on the others. This list really hurts running QBs, since they get penalized for lots of sacks but get no bonus for their rushing.
System 3
High rankers: Little of note. This list is really similar to list 4, although Neil Lomax, Craig Morton, Len Dawson, Bart Starr, and Earl Morrall have their best ranks here.
Low rankers: Weird group. McNair, Jack Kemp and Zorn are the ones hurt the most here compared to the other three.
System 4
High rankers: Steve Young. Fran Tarkenton. So do Vick and Cunningham.
Low rankers: Marino and Montana have their lowest ranks, by 1, here. Moon, Manning, Favre, Kelly also have their lowest ranks, again not by much.
Any and all feedback welcome.
System 1 - compares QB's adjusted net yards per pass attempt to 3/4 of the league average rate; includes a bonus for rushing. Net means it includes sacks allowed data.
Vinny Testaverde, Drew Bledsoe (were they separated at birth), Kerry Collins, etc., all come in pretty high in this system. That's because when comparing to 3/4 of the league average (as opposed to 100% of the league average, like the others), you really bump up the compilers. On the other hand, Favre gets bumped up high here, too. He ranks 2nd on this list, 9th on System 2, and 21st and 24th in the others. Jon Kitna, Steve DeBerg, and Jake Plummer rank high too.
On the other side, Roger Staubach, Otto Graham, Norm Van Brocklin, Kurt Warner, all rank low. Once again, that's an attempts issue.
I think this system is best for judging "Which QB had the best career."
System 2 - compared adjusted net yards per pass to the league average. No bonus for rushing.
This is good for what I call "best passer ever" lists. Compared to the previous system, it eliminates rushing stats and decreases the value of compilers.
So Vinny, Bledsoe, and also Randall Cunningham and Vick get dropped pretty far. Jim Harbaugh drops.
Staubach, Warner, Graham get bumped up.
System 3 - compares adjusted yards per pass to the league average. No bonus for rushing, and no sack data involved.
So what does eliminating sack data do? Steve DeBerg drops a ton. So does Dan Marino. Derek Anderson, Peyton Manning, Byron Leftwich all avoid the sack well, and they all drop in this system. Aikman, Favre and Fouts fall, too. Cunningham jumps up, as does Otto Graham (that one's a bit complicated to explain). Frank Tarkenon moves up. Steve Young moves from 5th or 6th best to 2nd best because of his ability to avoid sacks. Unitas jumps a ton, too.
I also use this system for "best passer ever" lists.
System 4 - compares adjusted yards per pass to the league average, with a bonus for rushing.
I call this one the best for "best QB ever lists." It has the nice advantage of rewarding greatness and including rushing stats.
By including rushing stats in System 4 over System 3, Vick obviously benefits the most. Archie Manning does, too, as he was a pretty decent runner. Wade Wilson. Steve Young, Cunningham and Tarkenton move up, too. Otto Graham, Marino, Montana move down. Moon, Peyton, move down too.
Short recap:
System 1
High rankers: Testaverde, Bledsoe, Collins. Vinny ranks 25th here, and not in the top 600 on any of the other lists. Bledsoe ranks 27th, and not in the top 600 on any other list. Collins 43rd, and not top 600 on any other list.
Low rankers: Otto Graham (10th; 1st, 2nd and 4th on the other lists). Staubach (18th; 8th, 8th and 7th on the other lists). Kurt Warner (29th; 13th, 14th and 15th on the others). Tony Romo (122nd; 52nd, 61st, 64th on the others).
System 2
High rankers: Mark Rypien - 37th here; not top 60 anywhere else. Doug Williams - 47th here; 75-111-105 on the others. Peyton Manning and Joe Montana also have their highest rankings on this list, although only by one spot. Jeff Garcia (22; 33-38-38). Carson Palmer - 45; not top 60 any other list.
Low rankers: Randall Cunningham- 538th on this list, top 50 on the other three. Fran Tarkenton - 23rd on this; top 10 on the others. Dave Krieg - 87th here; top 50 on the others. Chris Chandler - 414th; top 80 on the others. This list really hurts running QBs, since they get penalized for lots of sacks but get no bonus for their rushing.
System 3
High rankers: Little of note. This list is really similar to list 4, although Neil Lomax, Craig Morton, Len Dawson, Bart Starr, and Earl Morrall have their best ranks here.
Low rankers: Weird group. McNair, Jack Kemp and Zorn are the ones hurt the most here compared to the other three.
System 4
High rankers: Steve Young. Fran Tarkenton. So do Vick and Cunningham.
Low rankers: Marino and Montana have their lowest ranks, by 1, here. Moon, Manning, Favre, Kelly also have their lowest ranks, again not by much.
Any and all feedback welcome.
