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Which QB's will have the best completion % this season? (1 Viewer)

Dentist

***Official FBG Dentist***
Last Season QB's with over 300 attempts:

Carr - 68%

Romo - 65%

Manning - 65%

Pennington - 65%

Brees - 64%

Frye - 64%

McNair - 63%

Bulger - 63%

Losman - 62.5%

Kitna, Palmer, Brady - 62%

The worst:

Young - 51%

Vick - 53%

Gradowski - 54

Grossman - 55

Plummer - 55

Favre - 56 - suprising

Hasselback - 57 - also suprising

Leinart - 57

McNabb - 57 (also suprising)

Here are FBG's 2007 predictions

#1 – Manning – 67.3%

#2 – Palmer – 63.1%

#3 – Brady - 64.2%

#4 – Bulger – 64.5%

#5 – Brees – 64%

#6 – McNabb – 59.8%

#7 – Young – 55.9%

#8 – Romo – 58.7%

#9 – Kitna – 58.5%

#10 – Rivers – 60.3%

#11 – Rothlithsburger – 58.9%

#12 – Cutler – 58.3%

#13 – Leinart – 60.4%

#14 – Hasselbeck – 59.8%

#15 – Favre - 55.7%

#16 – E. Manning – 54.7%

#17 – Smith – 56.3%

#18 – Losman – 59.9%

#19 – Campbell – 55.3%

#20 – Pennnington – 61.7%

#21 – Grossman – 55.5%

#22 – McNair – 61.3%

#23 – Delhomme – 58.1%

#24 – Schaub – 62.2%

#25 – Leftwich – 60.7%

Which of these QB's are most likely to stay at this level, who falls, who rises?

Would you say QB completion % is more a function of QB ability? system? or personell?

Who will be the worst QB's for completion %?

Seems like McNair and Brees would stay high because they throw a lot to TE's or RB's

And Manning will be high just because he's good.

How would you rank the top 10 guys for 2007 in terms of completion % and how would you let that affect your rankings (obviously i can't put this into the Draft Dominator)

In my league we use scoring % as one of the categories to garner points

Quarterbacks (start 1)

Completion %

54.50 – 59.49 = 1 point

59.50 – 65.49 = 3 points

64.50 – 69.49 = 5 points

69.50+ = 7 points

 
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Sorry, I didn't mean to be a jerk. I just wanted to point out that being a good QB and having a high completion percentage do not go hand in hand. Look at the guy at the top of your list. He was good enough to get himself dropped from his team this year. That is compounded by the fact that your league put an emphasis on comp % and you have a recipe for disaster. A QB that only dumps to RB's and TE's and gets no TD's is just as good as a QB that throws 2 td's in that system. Add to that the fact that you'll have to play match-ups a ton because there are huge fluctuations in comp percentage depending on the defense your playing.I would reccomend that you draft at least 3 mediocre QB's and play match-ups against Def's that have LB's and safeties that are poor in pass coverage.

 
Maybe i should explain myself better.

This is only ONE category.

I still have 6 point TD's.

1 point per 25 yards of combined offense (once the QB reaches 150 yards... like 150 yards = 1, 175 = 2 and so on)

No difference between rushing and passing yards.

and -2 points for interceptions.

My point for starting this thread was to ask..

which QB's would you bump UP because of an anticipated good completion %

and which QB's might you bump down a notch or two?

 
This one can stay but as a rule, all "my league" posts will be moved. Please let's keep the SP focused on just NFL content and not specifically your league. This thread for instance would get TONS more play if it were more a discussion about which QBs had the best completion %.

J

 
While I'm not a fan, Culpepper could be a late-round gem in your League. Despite his erratic play the past two seasons, Culpepper has never had a sub-60% season in his 7 year career.

 
On ESPN radio this morning John Clayton was discussing how Carson Palmer could have a 69% completion percentage...Palmer stated he thinks he can get it up to 75%. :blackdot:

My work here is done.

 
This one can stay but as a rule, all "my league" posts will be moved. Please let's keep the SP focused on just NFL content and not specifically your league. This thread for instance would get TONS more play if it were more a discussion about which QBs had the best completion %.J
Sorry Joe.Good point.I was really attempting to make it a discussion about which QB's were anticipated to have the best completion %But my verbiage sucked.
 
It's a fairly small point boon, looking at the numbers, nothing stands out as enough to bump someone up significantly, if any. David Carr PERHAPS, but hell, he's not even playing right now.

FWIW, Palmer had 68% back in 2005, the 62 was a product of the injury IMO.

 
I want to get a discussion focused on offensive schemes.. and which systems you might think produce higher completion % than others...

or is it mainly a function of QB talent?

I agree that Palmer would be up there... not enough of a boost to put him above manning, but still solid.

Vince Young would take a drop in this instance..

Vick would take a drop.. i know he's inaccurrate

Is the Martz system known for good completion %?

 
In regards to Martz's offense, Bulger threw 66% in 2004 and 2005, and 62% in 2006, because of the coaching change, eh perhaps, it's only 1 season though, so hard to tell.

Kitna's last full season as a starter in Cincinnatti, he threw 62, his season in Detroit, 62, so again, hard to say.

 
This one can stay but as a rule, all "my league" posts will be moved. Please let's keep the SP focused on just NFL content and not specifically your league. This thread for instance would get TONS more play if it were more a discussion about which QBs had the best completion %.J
Sorry Joe.Good point.I was really attempting to make it a discussion about which QB's were anticipated to have the best completion %But my verbiage sucked.
Cool. J
 
Vick's drop isn't due to your scoring system, friend :goodposting:
touche.I typed before i thought.If vick were playing, this is the statistical analysis i'd provide though
Understandable, just wanted to throw it out there for kicks. Honestly though, Vince is the only instance I can see it being a factor. It may put a few other quarterbacks on the same level as him, canceling out the rushing stats.I look at Eli Manning, only 58% last year, though trendy, he's increased it each year by nearly 5%.When forced to pass more, Rothlesberger's completion% went down, ints went up, though I would imagine he's not very high on your board as is. It could really hinder Campbell, though I honestly expect a significant improvement from him this year.
 
FBG projections completion percentage for every QB. That's a pretty good place to start.

I'm higher on Pennington than David Dodds, though. He's got a career 65.2 completion percentage, and I think he should easily best the 61.7 rate Dodds has him projected for. Jones has soft hands and converted over 75% of his targets into receptions last year. Pennington is finally healthy and not recovering from surgery, and should play more consistently than he did in 2006. I'd say he's got a good chance to complete 2 out of every 3 passes he throws this year. Coles and Cotchery are surehanded, and Baker and Washington catch a high percentage of their targets, too.

 
FBG projections completion percentage for every QB. That's a pretty good place to start.I'm higher on Pennington than David Dodds, though. He's got a career 65.2 completion percentage, and I think he should easily best the 61.7 rate Dodds has him projected for. Jones has soft hands and converted over 75% of his targets into receptions last year. Pennington is finally healthy and not recovering from surgery, and should play more consistently than he did in 2006. I'd say he's got a good chance to complete 2 out of every 3 passes he throws this year. Coles and Cotchery are surehanded, and Baker and Washington catch a high percentage of their targets, too.
I understand you do technically project the completion % because you project the completions and attempts.But sadly, I guess i'm going to have to do all the work myself with the predictions... because the math isn't done.I guess i'll do the math and BRB
 
here are FBG's projections..

which do you think are high? which are low?

0.673 Peyton Manning0.645 Marc Bulger0.642 Tom Brady0.641 Drew Brees0.630 Carson Palmer0.622 Matt Schaub0.617 Chad Pennington0.613 Steve McNair0.607 Byron Leftwich0.604 Matt Leinart0.603 Philip Rivers0.599 J.P. Losman0.598 Donovan McNabb0.598 Matt Hasselbeck0.593 Charlie Frye0.587 Tony Romo0.587 Ben Roethlisberger0.585 Jon Kitna0.584 Jeff Garcia0.583 Jay Cutler0.581 Jake Delhomme0.576 Tarvaris Jackson0.564 Alex Smith0.559 Brodie Croyle0.559 Vince Young0.557 Brett Favre0.555 Rex Grossman0.553 Jason Campbell0.547 Eli Manning0.545 Joey Harrington0.545 JaMarcus Russell0.524 Trent GreenEdited to make it look better.Thank you.. you did a much better job.

 
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My initial thoughts were that they had Romo way to low.. Manning a bit high

and Schaub seemed high for me really never having seen him play.

Your thoughts?

 
I would go with Big Ben.

This year's projection is way too low for his completion rate. He was over 60% in each of his first two years.

He returns to form this year.

 
Losman drops from #9 to #18, going into only his second full time season, with the same (but more mature) WRs, a better Ol, and a better RB? You've got me... How could you possibly predict him to drop off so far given these circumstances?

I can understand a slight drop off, if perhaps you think last year was a fluke, but the situation appears to suggest at least a comparable year, no?

 
Losman drops from #9 to #18, going into only his second full time season, with the same (but more mature) WRs, a better Ol, and a better RB? You've got me... How could you possibly predict him to drop off so far given these circumstances?

I can understand a slight drop off, if perhaps you think last year was a fluke, but the situation appears to suggest at least a comparable year, no?
Losman ranked 14th last year, not 9th. When adjusting his performance for games played and strength of schedule, he ranked just 26th best last year. He didn't finish the season as the 14th best QB because he was that good, he did it because he played every down. Tony Romo, Matt Leinart, Matt Hasselbeck, Damon Huard, Steve McNair, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Jay Cutler and Chad Pennington all move past him when adjusting for games played and strength of schedule. So really, ranking him 18th is suggesting some degree of improvement, since injuries and SOS aren't heavily factored in to projections.
 
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Losman drops from #9 to #18, going into only his second full time season, with the same (but more mature) WRs, a better Ol, and a better RB? You've got me... How could you possibly predict him to drop off so far given these circumstances?

I can understand a slight drop off, if perhaps you think last year was a fluke, but the situation appears to suggest at least a comparable year, no?
Losman ranked 14th last year, not 9th. When adjusting his performance for games played and strength of schedule, he ranked just 26th best last year. He didn't finish the season as the 14th best QB because he was that good, he did it because he played every down. Tony Romo, Matt Leinart, Matt Hasselbeck, Damon Huard, Steve McNair, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Jay Cutler and Chad Pennington all move past him when adjusting for games played and strength of schedule. So really, ranking him 18th is suggesting some degree of improvement, since injuries and SOS aren't heavily factored in to projections.
:confused: The OP says he was 9th? I don't care to verify it, but I just saw a stat somewhere that said Losman was 2nd or 3rd in completion % for passes over 30 yards, or something like that, so I believe the 9th claim easily.

And, what are you talking about with all this number of games adjustments? :confused:

 

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