IHaveTheBestTopLeft1stMolr
Footballguy
Which starting RB(starting as in starting on fantasy teams) do you think will be the biggest disappointment this year?
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Which RB will be the biggest bust? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter IHaveTheBestTopLeft1stMolr
- Start date
I have had a fantasy strategy that has worked year in and out. It involves taking the running back where Norv Turner was the OC. Lamont Jordan was money when Norv was there. Norv leaves and he falls to being a mediocre RB at best. Last year Frank Gore was a beast. This year he is going into the season with injuries and without Norv. I don't think he'll be absolute worthless but his numbers will not even be close to last year.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
think it's going to be Gore
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Larry Johnson- 416 carries not to mention everything else going on. I'll let him be someone else's problem.
Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.
Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.
Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.
Reggie Bush- Most overrated running back in the league. Deuce is still on the team and the better Rb.
Laurence Maroney- I don't even know who this guy is. 1st round pick because he plays for the Patriots? Please.
Shaun Alexander- Give it up. It's over. Stop living in the past. You can't turn back the clock.
Pocket Joker
Footballguy
Good post. I also think that Benson will disappoint, and end up losing carries (and maybe job) to the "other" Adrian Peterson.
Scottish Revenge
Bob Lee Swagger alias
Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Based on their first round status in leagues, I would say:
Gore
Maroney
MJD (borderline 1st rounder, but people are counting on last year's #s)
Gore
Maroney
MJD (borderline 1st rounder, but people are counting on last year's #s)
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
How did LaDainian Tomlinson, Emmitt Smith, and Stephen Davis do after Norv Turner left? They were all top-10 running backs.If you seriously think that Norv Turner was the main reason why Frank Gore ran for nearly 1700 yards and had over 2100 total yards (and why he won't come close to last year's numbers) then you must not have seen him play last season.Stashy said:
Deuce'sWild
Footballguy
Edgerrin James- may lose GL touches to Shipp, OL issue
Ronnie Brown- terrible OL, may lose touches to Booker on passing downs
Clinton Portis- too many question marks with his knee, and Betts has to see the field after last year
Alexander- OL isn't what it used to be, lost some offensive weapons that could reduce his redzone looks, not sure injury is 100%
Ronnie Brown- terrible OL, may lose touches to Booker on passing downs
Clinton Portis- too many question marks with his knee, and Betts has to see the field after last year
Alexander- OL isn't what it used to be, lost some offensive weapons that could reduce his redzone looks, not sure injury is 100%
Jeff Haseley
Moderator
I'm not touching Ronnie Brown unless he falls HARD. The OL is already a mess and its not even week 1 yet. Brandon Jacobs is another I'm not sure about. Not enough to risk a 3rd or 4th round pick for.
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The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
Pocket Joker
Footballguy
Edge was a "bust" last year --- He's getting picked in 2nd and 3rd round this year, and could have a nice rebound with a new OL coach (and better O-Line), and a focused run attack.Same for Brown, Portis --- they are going in 2nd and 3rd (depending on league size/scoring, etc.) They both could be good sleeper candidates.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
I almost wet myself with your Maroney comment.
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Thanks for this response. I was on the verge of looking that up, but you saved me the trouble!Yeah, if Gore doesn't do well this year, it'll be because of injury, not because of Norv-hangover.I'm having trouble thinking Brian Westbrook can deliver another year like 2006. Don't know if he'll "bust", but that smells like a career year last year.
PrinceofDarkness
Footballguy
Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm making no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
As for why he is a late first rounder in some people's opion is simply prorating his stats from last year (175 carries) to 300 carries:
1277 rushing 10 TDs 37 rec 333 rec yrs 2 TDs = 232 fantasy points = First Round Pick
Not too difficult of a concept.
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Commenting on Westbrook. Last year wasn't a fluke. The only thing stopping Westbrook is injury.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I could be wrong, but I think the poster meant that we are giving Maroney a Top 10 status when he has never held a lead RB role himself in the NFL. Maybr he sees shades of Barlow in Maroney's situation?Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
Sweet Love
IBL Representative
I have the same feel. TDs are so hard to project, so I would not be surprised at all to see a 50% reduction fromo 2006. That would still give him eight on the year, and if he is able to pile up more yards (will be hard to do with Taylor still there), he would still be a good back...just not Top 10 material.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
year in and out = 1 year?Stashy said:
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Exactly.I could be wrong, but I think the poster meant that we are giving Maroney a Top 10 status when he has never held a lead RB role himself in the NFL. Maybr he sees shades of Barlow in Maroney's situation?Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
Scottish Revenge
Bob Lee Swagger alias
I think there's something to be said for 4.3 YPC, 1722 yards from scrimmage and 7 TD's in 14 games as a #2 RB rookie...So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
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The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Over 700 of those 1722 yards from scrimmage (technically they aren't) were return yards. That doesn't tell me about his ability to be a stud running back. Devin Hester must have had over 2000 yards from scrimmage last season. Maybe he'll be the steal of the draft. I've gotta hand it to you though. That was pretty slick. Nice try.I think there's something to be said for 4.3 YPC, 1722 yards from scrimmage and 7 TD's in 14 games as a #2 RB rookie...So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
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Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Evidently the New England personnel department and coaching staff disagrees with you, since Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk are the only other RBs of note on the roster. Given the track record of New England's talent evaluators, I think I'll stick with their assessment over yours. Nothing personal.So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
salmonstud
Footballguy
I have a bad feeling about McGahee. He never looked stellar in Buffalo & Jamal's numbers weren't bad last year in Baltimore, but were not great. I think he vastly dissapoints those owners that reach for him before pick 20. Guys going later like Benson are going to outproduce him.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Maroney pros: Corey Dillon scored 13 rushing TDs last year. Maroney himself had 6. A few of those will go away with the addition of Moss in the redzone. Then again this team may score more in general and has all the makings of an offensive machine. Point is the TDs provide Maroney's upside.
Maroney cons: Injuries. Belichick will change strategies from week to week depending on the opposition. Heath Evans and Kevin Faulk will get touches, especially receptions.
Point is i think maroney is slotted right where he should be, which is right outside the top 10. I think he will average a TD per week IMO.
Maroney cons: Injuries. Belichick will change strategies from week to week depending on the opposition. Heath Evans and Kevin Faulk will get touches, especially receptions.
Point is i think maroney is slotted right where he should be, which is right outside the top 10. I think he will average a TD per week IMO.
Michael Fox Fan
Footballguy
Getting back on track:
Jones-Drew owners could be disappointed....since many are expecting him to be top 10 again even though he's splitting carries. If you watch highlights from last year, defenders often simply failed to properly tackle him, almost like they were underestimating him. I doubt that mentality persists this year.
Benson is an obvious choice. He's been injury prone in the NFL (even though he carried a full load in college), and even when healthy has only been average. (4.1 ypc isn't setting the world on fire)
I don't see Willis McGahee having a great bounce back year. The Baltimore O-line was below average in run-blocking last year, and while they've added youth, it takes time for a line to jell. Ogden is no longer the force he once was. And frankly, I thought McGahee looked slow and fat last year.
Jones-Drew owners could be disappointed....since many are expecting him to be top 10 again even though he's splitting carries. If you watch highlights from last year, defenders often simply failed to properly tackle him, almost like they were underestimating him. I doubt that mentality persists this year.
Benson is an obvious choice. He's been injury prone in the NFL (even though he carried a full load in college), and even when healthy has only been average. (4.1 ypc isn't setting the world on fire)
I don't see Willis McGahee having a great bounce back year. The Baltimore O-line was below average in run-blocking last year, and while they've added youth, it takes time for a line to jell. Ogden is no longer the force he once was. And frankly, I thought McGahee looked slow and fat last year.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Jul. 31, 2007 - 2:02 p.m. ET Patriots RB Heath Evans has been getting a lot of touches in camp. Evans, who got a surprising five touches in the AFC title game, is expected to have an increased role in the New England offense this season. He might become fantasy-relevant if the Pats look to him in short-yardage situations. Watch him, certainly don't draft him. Source: Providence Journal
Tong Po
Footballguy
Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
Out of no-where huh? Marion Barber must REALLY suck then if Maroney is an unknown/fluke to you because his skills demanded carries from Barber's workload despite being a soph. at Min.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
Maroney is a hell of alot more explosive than Benson and Jacobs is obviously not your everyday back which brings along its own risks.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Funny that you should mention that. Outside of getting lucky with Tom Brady (getting that quality of player in the 6th round is luck not skill) have they really drafted an impact offensive player this decade? Leaving Maroney out as he's unproven for now the only players who'd come close are Deion Branch and Ben Watson. Frankly that isn't saying much. While they've drafted well on defense the offensive side of the football has been lacking (outside of Tom Brady). So I don't think Laurence Maroney will be a good player "because the Patriots drafted him" is necessarily true. We'll see. It's not that I have Maroney being a total flop but I don't think he should be a 1st round draft pick in fantasy football.Evidently the New England personnel department and coaching staff disagrees with you, since Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk are the only other RBs of note on the roster. Given the track record of New England's talent evaluators, I think I'll stick with their assessment over yours. Nothing personal.So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
Yeah, Dillon sucked last year as the Pats #1 guy.So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
dapunisher
Footballguy
If this thread lives long enough, the list eventually will include every projected Top 15 RB other than LT and Steven Jackson.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
He is not highly rated just because he is a Pat.Did you seem him play early last year? He was tearing it up. As a Bills homer, and Pats hater, it pains me to say it, but if he can stay healthy he is a stud.
dapunisher
Footballguy
Like Willie Parker, for example:http://www.nflplayers.com/players/player.aspx?id=35997So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.Clearly.Not disagreeing that he may be a bust, just saying that you clearly know who he is.
Played in nine games as a senior … rushed for 181 yards on 48 attempts, an average of 3.8 yards per carry…caught seven passes for 28 yards. 2002: Played in 11 games as a junior and started two … started the season-opener against Miami (Ohio) and at Virginia … finished second on the team with 70 carries for 236 yards and one touchdown … also caught 12 passes for 104 yards. 2001: Started the first three games of the season as a sophomore … played in nine games total … was second on the team in rushing with 400 yards on 83 carries and had three touchdowns … caught two passes for 26 yards … had his best game of the year against Auburn in the Peach Bowl, rushing for 131 yards on 19 carries and scoring one touchdown. 2000: Had a roller-coaster season as a freshman, but came on strong at the end of the year … earned the starting job after spring practice, but injured his back in fall workouts and was not completely healthy until the Virginia game, eight games into the season … was second on the team in rushing with 84 carries for 355 yards (4.2 avg.) … scored four touchdowns … majored in African-American history.
Well, Westbrook is a very talented back. And this is a very potent offense. But last year he had 50-100% more carries than in previous years where he was the undisputed starter, and 50-100% more rushing yards. His yards per carry was also up, 0.5 to 1.0 YPC better. Interestingly, his receiving numbers were just about the same as previous years.I know he got asked to carry more of the load when McNabb went down last year. And he responded fabulously. I'm just saying that those numbers were a vast improvement for him. Is his game now at a new level? Or was there a lot of circumstances that conspired to bring about a year where his numbers got inflated?*shrugs* Just guessing here. But we tend to look at last year's stats too much in this game - guys with a down year like Alexander get downgraded a lot, guys who get an uptick are assumed to now always perform at the new level.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.
Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.
Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.
Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Good example. I could give you a couple more. How did Frank Gore do in college? When he wasn't hurt he was good not great. How many college football games did Antonio Gates play in again? Zero. That's my whole point though. What players did in college (positive or negative) doesn't matter at all at the pro level. Yet people keep bringing it up when talking about guys like Cedric Benson or Laurence Maroney. As far as I'm concerned it goes in one ear and out the other.Like Willie Parker, for example:http://www.nflplayers.com/players/player.aspx?id=35997So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
Played in nine games as a senior … rushed for 181 yards on 48 attempts, an average of 3.8 yards per carry…caught seven passes for 28 yards. 2002: Played in 11 games as a junior and started two … started the season-opener against Miami (Ohio) and at Virginia … finished second on the team with 70 carries for 236 yards and one touchdown … also caught 12 passes for 104 yards. 2001: Started the first three games of the season as a sophomore … played in nine games total … was second on the team in rushing with 400 yards on 83 carries and had three touchdowns … caught two passes for 26 yards … had his best game of the year against Auburn in the Peach Bowl, rushing for 131 yards on 19 carries and scoring one touchdown. 2000: Had a roller-coaster season as a freshman, but came on strong at the end of the year … earned the starting job after spring practice, but injured his back in fall workouts and was not completely healthy until the Virginia game, eight games into the season … was second on the team in rushing with 84 carries for 355 yards (4.2 avg.) … scored four touchdowns … majored in African-American history.
1huskerfan
Footballguy
Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm making no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
As for why he is a late first rounder in some people's opion is simply prorating his stats from last year (175 carries) to 300 carries:
1277 rushing 10 TDs 37 rec 333 rec yrs 2 TDs = 232 fantasy points = First Round Pick
Not too difficult of a concept.
strykerpks
Footballguy
You state that you only want to draft "proven" backs, but then state you will not be touching "proven" backs like LJ and SAlex.For the sake of discussion, what "proven" backs are/will you be targeting?Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.
Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.
Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.
Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
Tong Po
Footballguy
It's kinda hard to be a "proven player" when you've only been in the league one year.... isn't it? Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique talent and go after it. Think about all those owners in keeper leagues who will never have LT on their team... because someone took a shot on him early on and never looked back. In one of my keeper leagues, a guy drafted Reggie Bush with the 1st pick last year, and I expect him to hold onto Bush for a long time.And aren't you contradicting yourself regarding Shaun Alexander? Is there any RB in the league who's more proven over the past 5 years other than LT?Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.
Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.
Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.
Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Those backs are proven but they're also not in what I believe to be the best situation this season. I've already explained why. In the first round my priorities at running back would probably be LT, SJax,Gore, Parker, Westbrook, Addai, Rudi, Henry in that order.You state that you only want to draft "proven" backs, but then state you will not be touching "proven" backs like LJ and SAlex.For the sake of discussion, what "proven" backs are/will you be targeting?Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.
Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.
Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.
Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
gump
Footballguy
If "the past" is the 2nd round of last year's playoffs....then I guess I am living in it.Dodds essentially said the same thing in his "gut feeling" article about SA...he didn't see any fire in his belly.I don't get it. After watching the Chicago game...the last game Seattle played...I'm as confident in SA as ever to be top 10.
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EBF
Footballguy
The guys who are always dangerous are the sophomores coming off a decent rookie season. This year's group includes Maroney, Addai, Drew, and Bush. All four of them are top 10-20 picks in most league. You have to think at least 1-2 of them will pull a Michael Bennett/Ronnie Brown/Caddy Williams/Julius Jones. I would pick Drew because his numbers look the most flukish to me. That said, this year's group of sophomores is atypical in that they all play for quality teams.
I think Larry Johnson is an obvious bust candidate. His supporting cast is weak, he's holding out, and he's coming off a 400+ carry season. Not good.
Someone like Brandon Jacobs could either be really good or really bad. There's always some risk when an untested guy gets his first crack at a starting gig. Remember Troy Hambrick and Stacey Mack? Neither do I.
On that note, Cedric Benson is another potential bust. He was a great college player and a high draft pick, but his combine numbers were pitiful and he hasn't done anything in the NFL to alleviate doubts. Maybe he'll be great. Maybe he'll be terrible. I don't want to be the one who finds out.
Jamal Lewis will probably be awful in Cleveland, but I don't think anyone really expects him to succeed.
Clinton Portis hasn't been great since moving to Washington. With his injury issues and the emergence of Betts, his numbers could fall a bit.
As usual, Ronnie Brown is overrated.
I wouldn't feel too confident drafting a Cowboys, Raiders, Vikings, or Titans RB. Peterson is an elite talent, but that team is probably a couple years away.
I think Larry Johnson is an obvious bust candidate. His supporting cast is weak, he's holding out, and he's coming off a 400+ carry season. Not good.
Someone like Brandon Jacobs could either be really good or really bad. There's always some risk when an untested guy gets his first crack at a starting gig. Remember Troy Hambrick and Stacey Mack? Neither do I.
On that note, Cedric Benson is another potential bust. He was a great college player and a high draft pick, but his combine numbers were pitiful and he hasn't done anything in the NFL to alleviate doubts. Maybe he'll be great. Maybe he'll be terrible. I don't want to be the one who finds out.
Jamal Lewis will probably be awful in Cleveland, but I don't think anyone really expects him to succeed.
Clinton Portis hasn't been great since moving to Washington. With his injury issues and the emergence of Betts, his numbers could fall a bit.
As usual, Ronnie Brown is overrated.
I wouldn't feel too confident drafting a Cowboys, Raiders, Vikings, or Titans RB. Peterson is an elite talent, but that team is probably a couple years away.
The Man with the Plan
Footballguy
Not at all. I understand what he's accomplished. I also saw a player who broke down last season. Even before he got hurt he wasn't that good. There's always a chance that he can rebound to have a good season but I don't feel that he's worth the risk(especially for where he's being drafted). Focusing too much on the past is just as bad as focusing too much on the future. I don't think that Alexander will be able to play as well as he did in previous seasons and that he is on the downside of his career.It's all about balance. You want a player that's near their prime. You'd love to have a player that's in their prime but out of it? No sir. It's just not worth it for me.It's kinda hard to be a "proven player" when you've only been in the league one year.... isn't it? Sometimes you just have to recognize a unique talent and go after it. Think about all those owners in keeper leagues who will never have LT on their team... because someone took a shot on him early on and never looked back. In one of my keeper leagues, a guy drafted Reggie Bush with the 1st pick last year, and I expect him to hold onto Bush for a long time.And aren't you contradicting yourself regarding Shaun Alexander? Is there any RB in the league who's more proven over the past 5 years other than LT?Potential and Upside have killed more fantasy teams than anything else. The fact that a player hasn't done something in the past is even more reason to think he won't do it in the future. I'll always take proven players over unproven players. For where Bush and Maroney are being drafted they are unproven players at that level. That can certainly change but I wouldn't bet on it.Larry Johnson I'm not touching this season. You know why. Nothing more needs to be said about him. The Seahawks are a much different team then when Shaun Alexander was in his prime. People expecting him to play like he did even in the past are going to be disappointed. He's 30 years old (an old 30 at that). I'm not going to act like last season was just a fluke.This happens with all the great running backs. Faulk, Emmitt, Priest, TD getting drafted way too early. People just don't know when to quit living in the past. You live in the past. You die in the past.Wow... I couldn't disagree more with this list.Larry Johnson - Worrying about the holdout is one thing.... but the 400+ carry thing has been beaten to death. Overall, he still has low milage for his career.
Reggie Bush - Duece McCallister is the better back? Not from the Saints games I watched last year. Plus they have 2 completely different styles. Duece is a grinder... a power runner. Bush is lightning in a jar with potential to rip off a huge play at any moment. I'll take Bush. Much more upside.
Laurence Maroney - I'm not sure who's touting him as a 1st Round pick. Maybe in a 14 team league. If his shoulder can hold up, Maroney easily has the potential to be a Top 10 back in that offense.
Shaun Alexander - Guy averages 19 TDs a year for 5 straight seasons, had one injury-plaqued year... and now he's done?
Tommy Collins
Footballguy
The Man with No Brain,Clearly you haven't seen Maroney play. You're judging him based on his lack of experience. However, have you the slightest idea how well he did last year, aside from statistics? You actually see this kid run? He made Corey Dillon look like he was 90 out there. He's explosive, runs well and has all the makings of a featured back. Give this kid 20 carries a game and more RZ opportunities and you're talking about a 1st round fantasy pick without a doubt.So what you're saying is that he played great in college. Just like every other player in the NFL (otherwise they wouldn't be in the NFL). Obviously you know this is no guarantee of success. In terms of the NFL he's a nobody. You drafted him in the 7th round and as it turns out that was a mistake. So now you want to draft him 6 rounds earlier? I understand that things done changed in New England but I just don't trust him as a stud (which is clearly what you're expecting of him if you're drafting him with your first pick). He hasn't proven anything in the NFL and I don't think unproven players should ever be drafted that high. Brandon Jacobs and Cedric Benson are both in the same positions yet are drafted rounds lower than Maroney. I don't think that's right.Came from nowhere? This guy was a star tailback for the U of Minnesota and First Team All-Big Ten twice in college. He was a first round pick in the draft. How long have you been watching football?I'm msking no argument that he is going to be great this year, but "I don't know who he is." is about the lamest excuse I've ever heard. I drafted LM in the 7th round of my 12 Team redraft last year.This guy's come out of nowhere and he's supposed to be a top-10 running back? The way I see it he's no different from Cedric Benson and Brandon Jacobs. Unproven running backs who should be the starters for their teams. Yet for whatever reason (the Patriots are a fantasy juggernaut all of a sudden) Maroney is considered the 1st round pick.
I'm a Bills fan living in NY, I've seen him play...
