Who are your top 5 picks? (1 Viewer)

[sportsphysio]

I've been reading through many of the threads discussing how the outcome of the free agency signing period would affect certain first round selections, and a certain poster's opinions as to why Rice should be the #1 pick (some good points made on each side of that debate).

Now that the dust has settled, who are your top 5 in a PPR league? Really looking for everyone's analysis as to why they put their selections in a certain order. To me, this year there isn't a clear cut consensus #1 selection, as there seems to be 4-5 guys all worthy of the top pick. Here are my concerns with each:

1. Foster - hasn't established a track record in NFL yet; loss of Vonte; may lose touches to Tate; already dinged up.

2. ADP - WR corp has taken a hit; not sure how much Donovan has left in the tank and whether defenses will respect him enough to loosen up the box for ADP.

3. CJ -- not liking the holdout; really concerned about a lack of support on offense; play calling last year seemed to throttle his skill set (which hopefully will change this year).

4. Rice -- I kind of like him this year with the addition of Vonte, but WR corp may not be strong enough to keep defenses from loading the box. Really like their schedule though.

5. Jamaal Charles -- really not sure what to think of him or his situation.

So what do you guys think? If possible, put them in the order you would select them and explain why.

 

[eakfootball]

1 Peterson

2 Foster

3 CJ2K

4 Rice

5 Charles

 

[Saint]

Call me crazy... but I don't think Foster repeats...

1. Rice (Scary to think I am siding the same as Lhucks, but I love the addition of Leach, and with losing McGahee, plus soft sked, I have to think this is his year)

2. ADP (McNabb is the same as Favre, and ADP continues to run strong)

3. Turner (Yes, I believe the Julio Jones hype helps Turner tremendously and he gets back into the top 5)

4. Charles (I still see a split backfield here, plus some carries for McClain)

5. MJD (He's back)

Why no CJ2? I think he is going to holdout into the season and that will affect his long-term value to make top 5. I think he comes back after a few games, but for a top 5 pick, there's a lot of risk there that I wouldn't want to touch in my top 5.

Edit to add: I dropped Foster off as I think with a healthy Owens and the lack of Leach, he loses touches and his YPC drops. I think MJD beats him out for all around yardage.

 

[eakfootball]

Call me crazy... but I don't think Foster repeats...1. Rice (Scary to think I am siding the same as Lhucks, but I love the addition of Leach, and with losing McGahee, plus soft sked, I have to think this is his year)2. ADP (McNabb is the same as Favre, and ADP continues to run strong)3. Turner (Yes, I believe the Julio Jones hype helps Turner tremendously and he gets back into the top 5)4. Charles (I still see a split backfield here, plus some carries for McClain)5. MJD (He's back)Why no CJ2? I think he is going to holdout into the season and that will affect his long-term value to make top 5. I think he comes back after a few games, but for a top 5 pick, there's a lot of risk there that I wouldn't want to touch in my top 5.Edit to add: I dropped Foster off as I think with a healthy Owens and the lack of Leach, he loses touches and his YPC drops. I think MJD beats him out for all around yardage.

So your not taking Foster and Johnson in the top 5, but your taking Turner?

 

[Saint]

Call me crazy... but I don't think Foster repeats...1. Rice (Scary to think I am siding the same as Lhucks, but I love the addition of Leach, and with losing McGahee, plus soft sked, I have to think this is his year)2. ADP (McNabb is the same as Favre, and ADP continues to run strong)3. Turner (Yes, I believe the Julio Jones hype helps Turner tremendously and he gets back into the top 5)4. Charles (I still see a split backfield here, plus some carries for McClain)5. MJD (He's back)Why no CJ2? I think he is going to holdout into the season and that will affect his long-term value to make top 5. I think he comes back after a few games, but for a top 5 pick, there's a lot of risk there that I wouldn't want to touch in my top 5.Edit to add: I dropped Foster off as I think with a healthy Owens and the lack of Leach, he loses touches and his YPC drops. I think MJD beats him out for all around yardage.

So your not taking Foster and Johnson in the top 5, but your taking Turner?

For a RB I would.Edit to add notes. Here's my thinking at Top 5 RB positions. I gave you my thoughts on Foster and CJ2, but let me tell you why I slid Turner from where FBG has him at RB12 into top 5.* McFadden - High Risk. Lost some major players on their Oline to FA, as well as Miller from a passing perspective. Just don't see the opportunity to break top 5.* McCoy - I like him, but the Eagles just don't rush him enough. In addition, I have to think Ronnie Brown gets in on some of the action to vulch TDs along with Vick, keeping McCoy out of top 5.* Forte - The Bears and the pass happy Martz who gave away their TE... ugh. What a mess.* Jackson - I think the additions of Cadillac and Norwood takes away some of his carries. He's been carrying the load for the last 6 years and I think STL wants to save him for late in the season* Mendenhall - This is the only guy I was thinking has a chance to break top 5 over Turner. I would put him as #6. All in all, I liked Turner over Mendenhall as I think Matt Ryan is primed for a breakout season. This will be one of those areas where I think the pass opens up the run lanes and Turner can have some substantial yardage and scores as defenses will be playing more towards the pass.

 

[Badgers Fan]

1. Foster

2. CJ (only if he signs and starts practicing by mid august)

3. Rice

4. AP

5. Mendenhall

 

[adrenaline]

Without knowing how serious Foster's hammy is if I was drafting today he would fall out of my top 5.

PPR Dynasty

CJ3

ADP

Charles

Rice

McCoy

McFadden

Foster

ETA: If Foster is full speed before the season starts he slides in after ADP.

 

[LHUCKS]

Assuming PPR Redraft

1. Rice

2. Foster

3. Chris Johnson

4. Peterson

5. Gore

 

[sportsphysio]

If the angle of the question was changed a bit, so that the emphasis was on which of those typical top 5 backs were the "safest" to most likely perform like a top 5 RB, would it change your responses at all?

 

[LHUCKS]

If the angle of the question was changed a bit, so that the emphasis was on which of those typical top 5 backs were the "safest" to most likely perform like a top 5 RB, would it change your responses at all?

not mine, risk plays a huge factor in my rankings

 

[NeverEnough]

1 - Rice

2 - Roddy White

3 - ADP

4 - Wayne

5 - Best

 

[De Novo]

Vick - QB and RB in 1 and all the top RBs have warts.

Foster - least warty of all the RBs and coming off an epic season.

Peterson - Mr. Consistent. QB and WR situation barely worry me.

Chris Johnson - thinking he bounces back in yardage big-time but the TDs are down.

Ray Rice - Vontae Leach. Healthy. If I see him in the preseason and he has the 2009 burst back, he moves up to #1 or #2 on my list.

 

[jurrassic]

CJ

Rice

AP

McCoy

Foster

 

[BigGDan]

Adrian Peterson - entering his absolute prime. Could have best season to date

Chris Johnson - with game manager Hasselbeck in town, easy schedule and better-than-average WR/TE - I see CJ regaining his mojo.

Ray Rice - no need to repeat the obvious

Andre Johnson - or whoever you value as the top WR. Johnson is sooooo due for a double digit TD year. This has to be the season

Roddy White - Let's just say White loses 25 recepts this year because of Julio. He'd still have 90 catches. And you know he'll score.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Roddy White - Let's just say White loses 25 recepts this year because of Julio. He'd still have 90 catches. And you know he'll score.

Not sure why he'd lose targets by getting an upgrade at WR2. He'll have less double teams, I would think that would create more opportunities and ultimately more targets for Roddy. I can see 180+ targets easy.

 

[De Novo]

1 - Rice2 - Roddy hite3 - ADP4 - Wayne5 - Best

Normally I wouldn't ask, but since you have Reggie Wayne in your top 5, is #1 Sidney or Ray Rice?

 

[Buckeyedawgs]

1. RAY RICE... NO McGEE plus bungals and brownies twice for a start.

2. mCfADDEN... fACE INJURY PROBABLY A GOOD THING. will rest him for when it matters.

3. CJ if he gets into gear next week or two.

4. McCoy... Philly d will score so much they wont have to pass a lot.

5. AP.... o-Line will be better with fats gone.

id say drew has good chance to get back into top 5. cj most likly to not be in top 5.

 

[Lash]

redraft

1) ADP - what has he done to deserve dropping where i have seen him drop in some drafts?... there is no more sure thing than All-Day

2) CJ3 - he is gonna get paid and he won't let that go to his head

3) Charles - this is the year because they wont be in the playoff hunt so there will be NO reason to worry about his load

4) Vick - was on pace for a 1000/12 season ...ummm in RUSHING stats! ... ok i get the injury thing but he led my league in scoring ANYWAY!

5) Foster - worries me a little because he wants to stay healthy til he can sign a big contract, so he may not run as hard this year (faulty logic because usually thats when you DO get hurt) but cant drop him below #5

 

[shortbow]

Rice

CJ2K

ADP

Foster

MJD

I think SJax actually makes a run for top 5 but will fall short in the 7-8 area.

 

[FUBAR]

1. ADP

2. Vick

3. McCoy

4. Rice

5. Foster

I'm also leaving CJ out until he returns. I'd have him #2 if he were playing right now.

With Charles, CJ and McFadden 6-8, I'm hoping for a middle pick in my redrafts.

 

[BigGDan]

Roddy White - Let's just say White loses 25 recepts this year because of Julio. He'd still have 90 catches. And you know he'll score.

Not sure why he'd lose targets by getting an upgrade at WR2. He'll have less double teams, I would think that would create more opportunities and ultimately more targets for Roddy. I can see 180+ targets easy.

I wasn't saying he will lose any recepts I was only saying 'even if he does lose....'. My point is that worst case he still approaches 100 catches.

 

[NeverEnough]

1 - Rice2 - Roddy hite3 - ADP4 - Wayne5 - Best

Normally I wouldn't ask, but since you have Reggie Wayne in your top 5, is #1 Sidney or Ray Rice?

Excuse for me thinking outside the box. Obviously I mean RAY Rice. Thanks for trolling!

 

[gbill2004]

1 - Rice2 - Roddy White3 - ADP4 - Wayne5 - Best

Based on my draft...I love it, I have 3 of teh top 5 picks!!!

 

[ScottNorwood]

2. mCfADDEN... fACE INJURY PROBABLY A GOOD THING. will rest him for when it matters.

 

[eakfootball]

Just saw that yahoo has Michael Turner ranked #5 overall

 

[adrenaline]

Just saw that yahoo has Michael Turner ranked #5 overall

I can see this in a nonPPR redraft setting.

 

[theplayer11]

don't see how Charles can be left off anyone's top 5.

Look what he did last year splitting time.

 

[buddyboy]

Foster - Top pick unless hammy continues to be a concern. If it is, he'll fall out of my top 5 and my top six picks would all move up a spot.

Rice - Situation has improved. I think he's the safest pick in the top 5.

McCoy - Reminds me of when Westbrook was steadily a top 5 RB. Lots of receptions to make up for fewer TDs.

Peterson - I could see the argument for him to be ranked as high as #1. I just like others situation better.

Charles - I expect more carries, but his schedule is tougher.

I'd be especially happy with pick #5 this year in a redraft ppr league. C. Johnson is my 6th ranked unless his holdout continues well into preseason games, then I'd slide A. Johnson up to that slot.

 

[shortbow]

don't see how Charles can be left off anyone's top 5. Look what he did last year splitting time.

Because he is still splitting time and he is no more talented than any of the other people have listed in their top 5s.

 

[Captain Hook]

don't see how Charles can be left off anyone's top 5. Look what he did last year splitting time.

LOOK at the Chiefs schedule is THIS year

 

[rocketsauce]

Love this thread!

Right now, for me (and its been moving around constantly):

1. Adrian Peterson - Am I 100% confident he'll finish #1? Not at all. But all I can do is go with what *I* would pick in each of these spots. I'm picking #1 overall in my main league, and right now, I'm taking Peterson. I feel like in that spot the best thing to do is minimize risk, and AP is money in the bank. Low ceiling, doesn't have an explosive game often, but no questions or concerns for me. The WR situation + Mcnabb can't be any worse than last year's WR situation + Joe Webb & Tavaris, so I think he still gets his numbers.

2. Ray Rice - Just moved him up, and he's reaching for that top spot. Obviously the stars seem to be aligning between his soft schedule (other than PIT & NYJ in the first month), the other talent leaving, and a run-first mentality team. I do worry that he can't handle a huge load, and we may see more Parmele than anyone thinks, but I think he's poised for the biggest season and potentially stardom.

3. Arian Foster - I had him #1 about 5 days ago, and while the Hammy injury didn't directly make me drop him down, it did make me stop and think. Awful lot of competition with Ward getting a series now and then, and Tate factoring in (something you just can't say about Peterson. He stands alone.) A bit worried he could wear down, and the Texans may see that and take it a bit easy on him. Top 3 is nothing to scoff at though!

4. Chris Johnson - A good schedule, a home-run hitter, and no competition. The holdout doesn't actually concern me. I just get scared by Johnson's boom or bust feel. Almost seemed like he needed a long run in order to hit a decent number of points last year. I don't know -- something about CJ just doesn't line up right for me. Not a guy I expect on any teams. Odd, I know.

5. Lesean McCoy - The touchdowns are a concern with Vick snatching goal line looks, and the team may be already thinking playoffs and wanting to keep him a bit fresher this year (hence the Ronnie Brown signing.) I expect plenty of work, a ton of targets, and hopefully some 20+ yard long TD runs if he wants to hit 10+ TDs. Definitely feels like the Westbrook-esqe player I was hoping to see when I took him in the 3rd round last year.

I didn't even include Michael Vick, but if you were so inclined, I feel like you could slip him into any of these spots, including #1 if you felt so inclined. Its a roll of the dice, but if he plays a 16 game schedule, I expect him to far and away lead fantasy leagues in scoring.

 

[LHUCKS]

everybody must have read my Ray Rice thread...Jesus

 

[buddyboy]

everybody must have read my Ray Rice thread...Jesus

Yeah, that's it, only you had Rice rated so high. Now that we've all had a chance to be dazzled by your brilliance we've all just now come around to your point of view. Thank you Lhucks for showing us the errors of our ways.

 

[az_prof]

everybody must have read my Ray Rice thread...Jesus

Yeah, that's it, only you had Rice rated so high. Now that we've all had a chance to be dazzled by your brilliance we've all just now come around to your point of view. Thank you Lhucks for showing us the errors of our ways.

It wasn't LHucks, but the signing of the new FB and McClain and McGahee going elsewhere that makes me very high on Rice.

 

[shortbow]

everybody must have read my Ray Rice thread...Jesus

They'll never admit it.

 

[Sabertooth]

Right now, without reading any responses.

1. Ray Rice - safest pick on the board. He will not lose your league for you.

2. Lesean McCoy - another safe pick. Lower floor than Rice, higher ceiling too.

3. Chris Johnson - If he can get into camp, he could go for 1500+

4. Arian Foster - Obviously had a good season, but I don't think his talent is on par with the others.

5. Adrian Peterson - His situation is deteriorating at a quick pace. He's still a bull, but his line and QB are not where they need to be.

 

[Tanner9919]

don't see how Charles can be left off anyone's top 5. Look what he did last year splitting time.

that's a fair point..Charles is an elite talent.. he faces a brutally tough schedule, especially down the stretch during the final weeks of the season ( fantasy playoff time).it's enough to scare me away, I'd rather opt for one of the other RB's..week #11. Patriots12.Steelers13.Bears14.Jets15.Packers16. RaidersNow I don't consider NE such a great run defense, they can be run upon, nor do I consider Raiders to be stout run stuffers..but weeks 12-15 are just brutal games for Charles..perhaps the play on him this year is to trade him after week 10 ( Denver).my top 5 ** edited - PPR league:1. Ray Rice - OC Cam Cameron served as Chargers' OC from 2002-2006.during that span, Lt2's average was339/1588/18TDs, 67 recs, 507 yards..expect nearly identical stats from Rice this season as they take off the training wheels and run the offense thru him..2. A. Foster - the Texans' system is just too good , if he stays healthy he's going to be a top 5 RB once again. 3. Larry Fitzgerald - like clockwork, Fitz will always get his stats.should see a huge bounce in #'s with Kolb rather than D.Anderson,etc..probably will be playing like a man possessed 4. Andre Johnson - always good for 100+ recs..5. Hakeem Nicks - breakout 3rd year WR..no Boss or Steve Smith = more opportunities for Nicks..** 6. McFadden - right on the fringe, I'd call him 5b to Nicks' 5a..I know he's more of a swing for the fences type of pick here rather than going for A. Peterson, but I feel that McFadden has a HUGE upside with Al Saunders as Raiders OC, and the 6 games against weak AFC West run defenses puts him ahead of Peterson who plays Packers and Bears and up-n-coming Lions run defense.. ADP is left off the list because the O-line worries me, Rice is gone, McNabb is now the starting QB ...ADP's good for about 1250/1300 yards/10-12 tds. similar #'s can be had by selecting Fred Jackson 2 rounds later. ADP might be overvalued at his current average draft position..Mendhall's atrocious ypc avg last season, 3.9, has me worried...without those double-digit TD's last season, we're looking at a top 15-20 player..the reason I go with 3 WR's in top 5 is because AJ and Fitz do it year in and year out, amazingly consistent players..and Nicks is just a beast. he scores TDs and had four 100+ yards games last season. he's set to raise the bar..I know it's risky to put him in the top 5, but no more risky than Chris Johnson who has a new QB and coaching staff has changed, or Forte who is on again,off again every other year, Mendenhall, McCoy who is a smallish easily nicked up RB..or Turner who has a lot of miles on his legs, and 'Quizz is looking great so far so he's a bet to steal carries.I'd be just as inclined to add Shonn Greene to the top 5 list if I thought he was sure to get 300+ carries..