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Who do we target? - Chris Johnson (1 Viewer)

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Normally I like to look at a player who is a target. But for this little segment I am going to breakdown a guy I've got in a dynasty and a keeper league. He's none other than former 2000 yard rusher Chris Johnson. He's the fastest player in the NFL according to some. He's young and has a proven history of success. And yet it's week 8 here and many are wondering if they need to just cut bait on him, not only in redrafts, but in keeper leagues as well. I'm going to work my way backwards through the last 3 games of his. I'm going to give him some leeway for the holdout and not being in football shape. He says its the blockers. Coach says its not Johnson and that Ringer won't help. I'm going to watch the tape on him, play by play and see what we can see.

Week 7 vs. Houston Texans. 7th ranked vs. Run according to MFL.

1 13:01 0 - 0 1st-and-10 own 19 rushed for 2 yards: First carry of the game. Right guard pushed 3 yards into the backfield before Johnson even gets the ball. He breaks left and has to evade the tight end and his guy 1 yard into the backfield. He then eyes up three Texans and quickly gets upfield to salvage 2 yards. So he faced 5 defenders before reaching the original LOS. Ironically the announcer then states as they are running through the starters "solid offensive line with right guard Jake Scott making his 110th consecutive start."

1 12:29 0 - 0 2nd-and-8 own 21 rushed for 1 yards: I paused this when Johnson got the ball. 4 of 5 offensive lineman are at least a yard back from the original LOS. The fifth player (73 Jake Scott) is still straddling it. He then moves forward a couple yards and doesn't even lay a hand on the Texans LB 56. Never touched anyone. Johnson is tippy toe'ing it up to the line looking for a hole. But there isn't anything doing.

1 11:32 0 - 0 2nd-and-10 opp 48 rushed for 2 yards: Strange play. They motion Williams in tight from the split left position. Then pitch the ball left. The corner has no blocker and 2 teammates with him. Johnson just runs it up in there bravely but doesn't make anyone missed before the corner cuts out his legs. Had they not done that motion, they'd have at least had a hat on CB 25. I wouldn't even do that in Madden. Heck, that wouldn't work in Tecmo.

1 9:36 0 - 0 1st-and-10 own 45 rushed for 3 yards: Dive right. Of the six blockers (5 OL and 1TE), both the right side guys are two yards deep into the backfield (76 actually false started before being pushed back), Center is stalemated at the LOS, left guard moving to second level, and left tackle stalemated. Not one guy won his battle.

1 0:50 0 - 3 2nd-and-4 own 15 rushed for 1 yards: Tries to break it outside to the right. Rammed his way up in there and lost the ball. He recovered it himself. Gained a yard or two. Trap play that worked to an extent. Corner filled and linebacker didn't get sucked down. Best blocking yet on a play though.

2 14:59 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 21 rushed for 2 yards: Center and right guard actually pushed the DT back 1 yard. Play went right up their gap. But, alas there was nobody left to block the MLB who just filled the hole and shut Johnson down.

2 14:22 0 - 3 2nd-and-8 own 23 caught pass for 17 yards (first down): At this point the announcer starts bagging on Johnson's conditioning and practicing, saying he's tentative. He obviously isn't watching the game here. Johnson is getting no daylight so far. But on this play Johnson catches the ball after 6 yards and breaks two tackles while moving it 11 more up the field. Nice play where he actually had some room to use his skills. He lined up split wide left.

2 13:43 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 40 rushed for 2 yards: No room against as the line gets no push at all. You've got something funny happening here. You've got the left tackle and pulling right guard double teaming the end and pushing him laterally, effectively taking him out of the play. Then you've got the center whiffing on 99. The left guard got a piece of somebody (not pushing him back). Long story short you've got FB hall and Johnson basically playing Hamburger Drill against three defenders in a 6 foot wide alley. Not good.

2 7:21 0 - 10 1st-and-10 own 20 rushed for 3 yards: Really looks like the left tackle just said "screw it, I'm not blocking the end." Pitch left, and Johnson is on the ground before the LT engages anyone. Pathetic blocking. Johnson got a couple yards despite the complete FAIL by the LT.

2 3:52 0 - 17 1st-and-10 own 20 rushed for 0 yards: No kidding here. 4 defenders in the backfield. The one lineman who didn't get pushed back missed his block and the defender hit Johnson. I looked again. Jake Scott making his 110 consecutive start got owned by a linebacker. I'm noticing a trend here. Moose Johnston keeps blaming Johnson, he's out of his tree if he thinks this is on Johnson.

2 3:19 0 - 17 2nd-and-10 own 20 caught pass for -9 yards: Johnson lined up in backfield, motioned wide left. WR screen to him essentially that is tipped. Johnson pulls it down and tries to make something out of nothing. Well, guess what, all the defenders have penetrated and swarm him. Looks like the Persians falling on the 300 Spartans.

2 2:37 0 - 17 3rd-and-19 own 11 caught pass for 6 yards: CJ came out of the backfield and broke left. Bobbled the catch. Had he caught it cleanly, he might have done something with it. This one was on him. Throw was fine.

3 14:48 0 - 20 2nd-and-10 own 16 caught pass for 9 yards:

3 14:15 0 - 20 3rd-and-1 own 25 rushed for 2 yards (first down)

3 13:24 0 - 20 3rd-and-10 own 27 caught pass for -1 yards

3 6:25 0 - 27 3rd-and-10 opp 10 caught pass for 5 yards

1 11:32 0 - 0 2nd-and-10 opp 48 rushed for 2 yards

1 9:36 0 - 0 1st-and-10 own 45 rushed for 3 yards

1 0:50 0 - 3 2nd-and-4 own 15 rushed for 1 yards

2 14:59 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 21 rushed for 2 yards

2 14:22 0 - 3 2nd-and-8 own 23 caught pass for 17 yards (first down)

2 13:43 0 - 3 1st-and-10 own 40 rushed for 2 yards

2 7:21 0 - 10 1st-and-10 own 20 rushed for 3 yards

2 3:52 0 - 17 1st-and-10 own 20 rushed for 0 yards

2 3:19 0 - 17 2nd-and-10 own 20 caught pass for -9 yards

2 2:37 0 - 17 3rd-and-19 own 11 caught pass for 6 yards

3 14:48 0 - 20 2nd-and-10 own 16 caught pass for 9 yards

3 14:15 0 - 20 3rd-and-1 own 25 rushed for 2 yards (first down)

3 13:24 0 - 20 3rd-and-10 own 27 caught pass for -1 yards

3 6:25 0 - 27 3rd-and-10 opp 10 caught pass for 5 yards

I'm just going to break this off for the night at the half. His offensive linemen should be ashamed of themselves. They really should. Specifically the LT and RG played horribly. They look like practice squad guys at best. They get pushed around a lot. When they do get to the second level, they completely whiff blocks.

I don't think it is fair to say that Chris is playing poorly. He's trying out there. He isn't going down easily. He's fighting for yards. He just isn't getting any help at all. It must have pissed him off to see how the Texans blocked for Arian Foster. I think his comments about his linemen are completely justified.

I watch the Packers play and I'd state confidently that the Packers have 7 or 8 offensive lineman who would all start for the Titans and be among their top guys. Marshall Newhouse (Packers backup LT) makes his Titans counterpart look truly terrible. And he's a backup.

 
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I couldn't believe my eyes watching how poorly the Titans line played. So I trotted over to www.footballoutsiders.com because I thought I'd see just who the worst team for run blocking was. You guessed it. 32 of 32 Tennessee Titans. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol
To be fair, those numbers are simply the offensive line's performance with those runningbacks (CJ & Ringer in this case). It's not like it separates oline performance from RB performance. I'd trust your film study more than the numbers in this case, not that they are much different.Devil's advocate theory: their success in power situations is because CJ knows the only goal is to get those 1 or 2 yards. They are terrible in all other situations because CJ is trying to bounce everything/not running w/ attitude or grit or whatever.
 
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first play it seems he could cut right but i dunno if that guy running thru his right tackle is closing too fast. make no mistake, the rt is getting straight owned.

2nd play theres a lane out to the left. seems he has should have the speed to make a gain there.

ya nothing there

nuthin

corner and lb read the play perfect.

nuthin

pass play, defender doesnt stand a chance in space.

cutback to the right?

seems the play was designed for cj to beat the unblocked end with the lt blocking downfield, sealing off lb.

ugh

meh

meh

i think he is trying but not playing very well. proly losing confidence in himself and teammates and playing frustrated.

fwiw, pff has the titans as the 5th worst run blocking team.

 
Same OL that helped CJ2K get his 2K in 2009, except for Kevin Mawae. It's not like they had a lot of injuries or have rookies in there.

I guess they are just getting old? :mellow:

 
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This is why you take guys like Peterson.

AD had an utterly pathetic o-line last year and he was still an elite running back. When you have two guys that are relatively equal and one guy did it with a horrific o-line while the other did it with a very good o-line you take the guy who's proven that he can produce regardless of his situation.

The Titans o-line and ability to get Chris Johnson the ball out in space has been wildly underrated the last few years.

 
This is why you take guys like Peterson.AD had an utterly pathetic o-line last year and he was still an elite running back. When you have two guys that are relatively equal and one guy did it with a horrific o-line while the other did it with a very good o-line you take the guy who's proven that he can produce regardless of his situation.The Titans o-line and ability to get Chris Johnson the ball out in space has been wildly underrated the last few years.
excellent post. Again, the words GREAT and ELITE are vastly overused in fantasy circles.
 
This is why you take guys like Peterson.AD had an utterly pathetic o-line last year and he was still an elite running back. When you have two guys that are relatively equal and one guy did it with a horrific o-line while the other did it with a very good o-line you take the guy who's proven that he can produce regardless of his situation.The Titans o-line and ability to get Chris Johnson the ball out in space has been wildly underrated the last few years.
This is a classic "hindsight is 20/20" post here. Do you still think Chris Johnson is a Top 3 Dynasty player?
 
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This is why you take guys like Peterson.AD had an utterly pathetic o-line last year and he was still an elite running back. When you have two guys that are relatively equal and one guy did it with a horrific o-line while the other did it with a very good o-line you take the guy who's proven that he can produce regardless of his situation.The Titans o-line and ability to get Chris Johnson the ball out in space has been wildly underrated the last few years.
excellent post. Again, the words GREAT and ELITE are vastly overused in fantasy circles.
Well, let's be honest here, since Johnson has been in the league, he's paced right with Peterson. This year excluded, obviously.
 
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Same OL that helped CJ2K get his 2K in 2009, except for Kevin Mawae. It's not like they had a lot of injuries or have rookies in there.I guess they are just getting old? :mellow:
They switched to a zone scheme in the offseason. Apparently they think that zone is 3 yards deep into their own backfield. Jake Scott is absolutely pathetic. I'd imagine Johnson just rolls his eyes at that guy. I don't know how a player that poor gets to 110 NFL starts. He wouldn't even make the roster of many teams. I'd argue a practice squad player could outplay him. How hard is it to run forward and miss people? At least a rookie might accidentally hit somebody. Scott looks like he's not even trying.
 
Here's a list of the defenders he made miss Sunday:

No, his blocking's not good but once CJ gets to the 2nd level he's doing a whole lot of nothing. He just looks slow, be it a lack of conditioning, effort, or he's simply just not that good. I also think it's odd no one's looking at his splits with and without Vince Young.

2009 and 2010 per game w/ Vince Young: 24.6 carries, 132.6 yards 1.1 TD, 26.0 fantasy points (in PPR)

09 and 10 per game w/o Vince: 17.1 carries, 83.8 yards, 0.4 TD, 15.7 fantasy points (in PPR)

13 100 yard rushing games in 14 games with Vince

6 100 yard rushing games in 6 games w/o Vince

From> http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/Draft_2011_Whats%20worse%20for%20CJ_020211%29.htm

 
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I'm going to give him some leeway for the holdout and not being in football shape. He says its the blockers. Coach says its not Johnson and that Ringer won't help.
Johnson should be in game shape by now. I think the Titans should let Ringer be the lead back in a game, and have Johnson back him up, and see how the numbers look.
 
'placebo said:
Here's a list of the defenders he made miss Sunday:

No, his blocking's not good but once CJ gets to the 2nd level he's doing a whole lot of nothing. He just looks slow, be it a lack of conditioning, effort, or he's simply just not that good. I also think it's odd no one's looking at his splits with and without Vince Young.

2009 and 2010 per game w/ Vince Young: 24.6 carries, 132.6 yards 1.1 TD, 26.0 fantasy points (in PPR)

09 and 10 per game w/o Vince: 17.1 carries, 83.8 yards, 0.4 TD, 15.7 fantasy points (in PPR)

13 100 yard rushing games in 14 games with Vince

6 100 yard rushing games in 6 games w/o Vince

From> http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/Draft_2011_Whats%20worse%20for%20CJ_020211%29.htm
Come on, man. He made LB 58 miss on his very first carry of the game. :lmao:
 
All of the who do we target threads you have done have been tremendous. This one is no different, might even be better. I have been pretty down on CJ all year but I think this shows some signs of promise for future years since it would appear to me that his OL has no where to go but up. Better for dynasty purposes than I was thinking anyway.

 
Big :thumbup: on to Sabertooth for bringing solid play by play analysis to one of the more surprising fantasy situations of the year.

As someone who hasn't been able to actually watch Johnson play this year, I rely on this site (pay and the board) for better insight into this situation and the multiple posts of, "He got paid and is now lazy" are less than illustrative into this situation.

In fact this is a very different take, and far more in depth, than I got from the paid upgrade/downgrade reports and the game recaps where the reports, although they mention that the holes are smaller, seem to focus more on Johnson's lack of "burst", "speed" and "decisiveness".

 
Appreciate the work Sabertooth.Here's a Titans blog post, similar to your post, that takes almost the opposite view in watching the same plays. Blocking isn't great, but CJ is missing opportunities.http://www.totaltitans.com/2011-articles/october/based-on-his-play-against-the-texans-chris-johnson-is-not-really-an-nfl-caliber-rusher.html
This is a great find. It is funny how two guys can watch the same thing and see something different. I tend to think the writer is emotionally involved to a bigger extent than I am throwing out phrases like:"Deeply disappointing run by CJ""Another deeply disappointing run on which even a replacement level NFL running back should gain 4 yards and could easily have had more""Another deeply disappointing play by CJ."Seems like he set out to write about how "deeply disappointed" he is in Johnson and is looking for evidence to support that. I didn't really have an agenda, in fact I went in looking for reasons to cut ties with Chris Johnson in dynasty. I found quite the opposite is true. He and his coach blaming the offensive line is spot on. It's dumb to do it publicly, but they are right.
 
Thanks for the kinds words guys. I've often thought that there is a lot of value to be gleaned from watching the tapes and I do it because I can. I like doing the writeups for my own knowledge, but hearing that others appreciate it sure makes me feel valued. :thumbup:

 
i watched the same plays and my opinion trends much closer to the writers. there are plays to be made. it would be better if cj was actually trying to break to outside or make cutbacks. its like he just runs where the play is designed defender or not.

 
i watched the same plays and my opinion trends much closer to the writers. there are plays to be made. it would be better if cj was actually trying to break to outside or make cutbacks. its like he just runs where the play is designed defender or not.
You don't think having his offensive linemen being pushed off the line of scrimmage on almost every single play is a problem? There are literally plays where his linemen run out and don't even touch anyone. The seem confused on who to even block.
 
i think cj is compounding the problem by playing poorly. it would likely be a disappointing season regardless, but not epically weak and unworthy of starting as it is.

 
just last week I decided to trade for CJ in a "bold" move to jump start my then 2-4 team. He was coming off his 2 best games (from a fantasy points standpoint) and his bye, and he seemingly has a cakey schedule ahead (starting with Indy at home this week). I won last week but certainly not because CJ had anything to do with it. This is a big weekend for CJ. If he can't put together a decent game against this lousy Colts defense, then I am figuring there is not much hope here. In hindsight, I would not have made the trade I did (Nicks, Hardesty and Battle, for CJ and Vernon Davis).

 
i watched the same plays and my opinion trends much closer to the writers. there are plays to be made. it would be better if cj was actually trying to break to outside or make cutbacks. its like he just runs where the play is designed defender or not.
You don't think having his offensive linemen being pushed off the line of scrimmage on almost every single play is a problem? There are literally plays where his linemen run out and don't even touch anyone. The seem confused on who to even block.
look at some of his highlights from last year, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_5YfTfrzLM I know these are highlights but you can still see that when the blocking was horrible he still had huge runs. He is not running the same way as he has done in the past, he just looks slower.

 
i watched the same plays and my opinion trends much closer to the writers. there are plays to be made. it would be better if cj was actually trying to break to outside or make cutbacks. its like he just runs where the play is designed defender or not.
You don't think having his offensive linemen being pushed off the line of scrimmage on almost every single play is a problem? There are literally plays where his linemen run out and don't even touch anyone. The seem confused on who to even block.
The problem is no one is putting the level of attention into the OL or CJ's runs that you did. So you're stuck responding to vague, lazy assertions like these. What would be ideal is if someone had the time to analyze similar catastrophic OL breakdowns from last year to see how CJ handled them (again using your same level of detail) but I don't think anyone is going to do that when it's easier to just say CJ took the money and plodded away :(
 
So you're stuck responding to vague, lazy assertions like these
i spent like 15 min watching and writing about the same plays he did. not sure why you would attack me for simply offering a different viewpoint. at least i now know better than to waste my time mildly refuting someone so revered. also, nice complete fabrication of my viewpoint. at no point in this thread or any other did i allege that "CJ took the money and plodded away," rather i have questioned those that asserted this and sought theories from those who have watched him.
 
So what's the trend here for CJ? Up or down? Sounds like either he's just as fast as last year and his Oline is worse, or the Oline is the same and he's just not running as fast or trying as hard. Either way, how do we see things for the rest of the season? Not sure I'm buying that he's a buy low diamond in the rough waiting to bust out.

 
you seem to be making the assertion that his line is bad, therefore he must be good.

I don't see any reason he can't be exactly what everyone says he is behind a bad line.

the reason you pay a guy 56m is because he should have the individual ability to make some lemonade out of those lemons, otherwise, maybe we should credit the o-line for all his past successes and pay them the 56m.

I'm starting to wonder if that whole hold out was entirely because he knew coming in he wasn't going to run well for whatever reason and needed to cash in quick.

 
you seem to be making the assertion that his line is bad, therefore he must be good.I don't see any reason he can't be exactly what everyone says he is behind a bad line.the reason you pay a guy 56m is because he should have the individual ability to make some lemonade out of those lemons, otherwise, maybe we should credit the o-line for all his past successes and pay them the 56m.I'm starting to wonder if that whole hold out was entirely because he knew coming in he wasn't going to run well for whatever reason and needed to cash in quick.
I'm making the assertion that his line is bad. I'm stopping short of saying he is playing better, same, or worse than he has in the past. But his line is terrible.
 
good post Sabertooth. Obviosuly if you summarize all accounts (including yours), its safe to say IMO that there is fault on ALL sides. My beef with CJ is that I don't hear him taking reponsibility for ANYTHING. If you are going to take the BIG money, you should be the first guy to man up and admit when you arent playing your best.

 
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good post Sabertooth. Obviosuly if you summarize all accounts (including yours), its safe to say IMO that there is fault no ALL sides. My beef with CJ is that I don't hear him taking reponsibility for ANYTHING. If you are going to take the BIG money, you should be the first guy to man up and admit when you arent playing your best.
Is it flooding in Ten, because he's definitely sand bagging.
 
'cvnpoka said:
So you're stuck responding to vague, lazy assertions like these
i spent like 15 min watching and writing about the same plays he did. not sure why you would attack me for simply offering a different viewpoint. at least i now know better than to waste my time mildly refuting someone so revered. also, nice complete fabrication of my viewpoint. at no point in this thread or any other did i allege that "CJ took the money and plodded away," rather i have questioned those that asserted this and sought theories from those who have watched him.
I think your reviews were a nice counterpoint to mine. I also think posts tend to get lumped together. It's always better to get a few sets of eyes on things in my opinion. I am a CJ5H owner so I have to be careful not to let my bias for him get in the way. That's why I try to keep it as my observations sprinkled in with a few comments. I definitely listened to your points more than that blogger who seemed so emotional.
 
As always, nice analysis Sabertooth. Always keep an eye out for your posts over the years. This year it seems like the forums are filled with post after post beating a dead topic over and over. It is nice to see a change.

 
Buy low for redrafts this year? I think I can get him for like a wr2 at this point. Worth the risk or is he not even worth it?

 
'placebo said:
Here's a list of the defenders he made miss Sunday:

No, his blocking's not good but once CJ gets to the 2nd level he's doing a whole lot of nothing. He just looks slow, be it a lack of conditioning, effort, or he's simply just not that good. I also think it's odd no one's looking at his splits with and without Vince Young.

2009 and 2010 per game w/ Vince Young: 24.6 carries, 132.6 yards 1.1 TD, 26.0 fantasy points (in PPR)

09 and 10 per game w/o Vince: 17.1 carries, 83.8 yards, 0.4 TD, 15.7 fantasy points (in PPR)

13 100 yard rushing games in 14 games with Vince

6 100 yard rushing games in 6 games w/o Vince

From> http://fantasyfootballmetrics.com/Player_News/Content/Draft_2011_Whats%20worse%20for%20CJ_020211%29.htm
Come on, man. He made LB 58 miss on his very first carry of the game. :lmao:
So because I used a bit of hyperbole I don't have a valid point? He's not making any plays. Look at the other teams at the bottom of that football outsiders stat. DET 31, ATL 28, CHI 26. Yet somehow Best, Turner, Forte have made plays and been successful. If CJ were even showing flashes of his former self it would be easier to accept his line as an excuse.
 
Same OL that helped CJ2K get his 2K in 2009, except for Kevin Mawae. It's not like they had a lot of injuries or have rookies in there.I guess they are just getting old? :mellow:
They switched to a zone scheme in the offseason. Apparently they think that zone is 3 yards deep into their own backfield. Jake Scott is absolutely pathetic. I'd imagine Johnson just rolls his eyes at that guy. I don't know how a player that poor gets to 110 NFL starts. He wouldn't even make the roster of many teams. I'd argue a practice squad player could outplay him. How hard is it to run forward and miss people? At least a rookie might accidentally hit somebody. Scott looks like he's not even trying.
Zone blocking schemes often mean that an offensive lineman's first step is a "bucket step," which is basically like a half-step back. This is to allow the lineman to adjust to the appropriate angle, which is what zone blocking is all about (35-45 degrees for a "slice" play, 60 degrees for a "stretch").Obviously this doesn't mean they should be getting knocked back into the backfield, but just pointing out that offensive lineman in a zone scheme don't really "fire out" the same way as in man up blocking, so it might appear that they're pass blocking/moving laterally. They're all supposed to move, lockstep, in the same direction, take on whatever defender is in their path, and then Johnson is supposed to read the hole.
 
Same OL that helped CJ2K get his 2K in 2009, except for Kevin Mawae. It's not like they had a lot of injuries or have rookies in there.

I guess they are just getting old? :mellow:
They switched to a zone scheme in the offseason. Apparently they think that zone is 3 yards deep into their own backfield. Jake Scott is absolutely pathetic. I'd imagine Johnson just rolls his eyes at that guy. I don't know how a player that poor gets to 110 NFL starts. He wouldn't even make the roster of many teams. I'd argue a practice squad player could outplay him. How hard is it to run forward and miss people? At least a rookie might accidentally hit somebody. Scott looks like he's not even trying.
Zone blocking schemes often mean that an offensive lineman's first step is a "bucket step," which is basically like a half-step back. This is to allow the lineman to adjust to the appropriate angle, which is what zone blocking is all about (35-45 degrees for a "slice" play, 60 degrees for a "stretch").Obviously this doesn't mean they should be getting knocked back into the backfield, but just pointing out that offensive lineman in a zone scheme don't really "fire out" the same way as in man up blocking, so it might appear that they're pass blocking/moving laterally. They're all supposed to move, lockstep, in the same direction, take on whatever defender is in their path, and then Johnson is supposed to read the hole.
For example, looking at a Texans play, another zone run blocking team.Look at where they start - 11 yard line

Look at where they are a few steps later - between the 9-11, all taking the same angle

 
First of all Sabertooth, great job dude. I feel your pain I have CJ in a lot of leagues as well, so I decided to do a little digging of my own.

After doing some research with Jared Cook's snaps, I realized that he'd often get pulled in running situations. This made me wonder if the Titans offense was being predictable or if this was standard in the league. Well, judge for yourself:

Check out these statistics from PFF. This is the percentage of snaps that the TEs stay in to block. Anywhere from 40-60% IMO is balanced enough to prevent predictability.

Tight End Offensive Snap Summary: Run Blocking

2009 Titans

Crumpler: 60% Run Block

Scaife: 43% Run Block

2010 Titans

Scaife: 44% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Cook: 32% Run Block

2011 Titans:

Cook: 17% Run Block

Stevens: 60% Run Block

Graham: 70% Run Block

2011 Texans:

Daniels: 45% Run Block

Dreesen: 52% Run Block

2011 Redskins:

Davis: 40% Run Block

Cooley: 57% Run Block

2011 Patriots:

Gronk: 41% Run Block

Hernandez: 38% Run Block

2011 Saints:

Graham: 27% Run Block

Gilmore: 70% Run Block

Thomas: 46% Run Block

Small sample of teams in the NFL who have good run games and deploy more than 1 TE just like the Titans. Exception is N.O. since they deploy a 2nd TE less, but I threw them in there anyway to see how they'd measure up.

So in a nutshell, with a slight exception to Jimmy Graham, every team's leading TE is doing a good amount of run blocking. But look at Cook in 2011, he's far and away the most predictable player on this list, even more so than Graham.

Also, the difference in percentages between all the tight ends on the same team is almost negligible, that is except for the Saints and Titans. Look at Gronk and Hernandez, 3% difference. Even the 2009 Titans, only a 17% difference isn't enough to be predictable. But there's a huge 43/53% gap between Cook and Stevens/Graham.

Cook's in the game? He blocks 16% of the time...this must be a pass. Here come Stevens and Graham, 60-70% chance this will be a run. Every other team is clearly less predictable than the Titans are ATM, even the Saints.

CJ, the oline, the change in scheme yea those are all to blame, but the personnel packages and playcalling look like they might be predictable. Clearly a product of the coaching change in TEN.

To me, all this data explains why it's taken so long to get back on track. I still think Johnson will play better than he has, he's too talented IMO. But obviously the more problems there are, the harder it will be to get back to CJ2K form.

Hell, right now I'd be happy with CJ1K.

 
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Buy low for redrafts this year? I think I can get him for like a wr2 at this point. Worth the risk or is he not even worth it?
I just bought. His talent didn't disappear. I can't see CJ's owner dealing him for a WR2 though if they've paid any attention to his remaining schedule.IndCin@Car@AtlTB@BufNO@IndJac@HouThat's a pretty juicy remaining schedule. Even bad offensive lines can open up holes against some of these run defenses. I've also taken a little solace in the thought that Johnson's major 2009 tear didn't completely take off until the 7th game of the season.
 
bengalbuck, on 20 October 2011 - 04:27 PM, said:

Englishteacher, on 20 October 2011 - 04:05 PM, said:

Start 1qb, 2rb, 2wr, 1te

keep 6 dynasty, 72 players kept year to year, 12 round rookie/vet draft every year

I gave Romo, Turner, Witten and 2012 1st and second round picks

for

Newton, Gore, and Gates...

my team just missed the playoffs last year and is doing well this year so the picks shouldn't be that early...

got younger at qb with I think a little better of a ceiling...

brings my core nucleus to QB Newton, RB McFadden, RB Mendenhall, WR Nicks... all 25 and younger

5th keeper would be Gore and 6th keeper will come down to either Tebow, Gates, or Aaron Hernanadez

what do you guys think? I gave up a lot but I like the young nucleus... I should be comepetive for years to come barring major injuries

Depends on scoring, but it seems like kind of a lot to give up. But I guess Newton may be worth it in the long run. I sometimes forget how high his ceiling could be with all the rushing TDs. He's the only truly long term keeper that changed hands, so from that perspective, you definitely got the best player in the deal. I'm almost talking myself out of my initial reaction which was that the 2 picks were too much for a relatively minor upgrade...

Also, Aaron Hernandez seems like a no brainer as a keeper from my perspective. He's still only 21 years old and currently 2nd in TE points per game (ppr). I personally have him as a top 4 dynasty TE along with Finley, Graham and Witten.

Thanks for the input. Losing the picks next year is def going to hurt. But I like my starting lineup a lot. Depth will certainly be an issue though. This was certainly a long term move though. I don't see any big moves as my foundation is set.

I'm actually looking at another move where I would give up Gore (28 years old) and get Chris Johnson. Looks like this:

Gore

Gates

Eric Decker

2012 3rd rounder

2013 1st rounder

for

Johnson

Heath Miller

Dwayne Bowe

This would really hurt me this year without Johnson producing but that would give me a scary nucleus of Newton, Mcafadden, Chris Johnson, Nicks and then either Bowe or Hernandez as my last keeper. I'd deal one or the other if I were out of playoff contention to get a pick back for next year.

Thanks for the help bud!

 

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