who emerges as the #1 WR in NE? (1 Viewer)

[coachjim]

Who ever gets open. One week Moss will have 3 receptions, two weeks later he'll pull in 10+. This offense will be so dynamic but I'm not sure how you pick a receiver as the leader.

Finally someone comes up with the right and most logical answer.

 

[David Yudkin]

A lot of this will depend on:

- How well the defense plays and how healthy the LBs and DBs will be. No Asante could be a problem (although allegedly he should be signing his tender soon).

- How well Maroney plays and if he can stay healthy. I'm still not convinced he will do that much better than last yea only with an increased workload (but not a staggering work load).

- If the schedule is really as difficult as it appears on paper.

- If the team wants to chance getting Maroney banged up by overworking him at the end of games.

- If the Pats hold onto the ball but force opponents to cough it up.

 

[cstu]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

 

[cstu]

What about Chad Jackson?

I believe he'll be put on the PUP list tomorrow...I'm not counting on too much from him this season...

NE has no reason to play him this year so I wouldn't expect him to do much. Next year could be a different story since he'll be fully recovered and there will probably be a bunch of changes at WR.

 

[David Yudkin]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The Pats should be able to match the Raiders win total from the past two seasons by the halfway point in the season. He's been a workout and practive warrior since coming to town. He's already doing things and acting way differently then when he was on other teams.

 

[burd]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

both excellent points, which is the reason that this offense will be one of (if not) the most difficult offenses to correctly predict. but as good as Moss is, he's not going to go to NE and get 80-90 catches like he used ... it won't happen because the NE offense plays balanced ball and spreads the ball around. if anything, Moss will get annoyed at not being the go-to guy, but to expect that a malcontent is going to go to one of the most successful teams in the league and all of a sudden the team is going to change their style from balanced to focusing on one player is foolish. These arent' the Cowboys ....

 

[AnonymousBob]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The Pats should be able to match the Raiders win total from the past two seasons by the halfway point in the season. He's been a workout and practive warrior since coming to town. He's already doing things and acting way differently then when he was on other teams.

At what point do a person's true colors shine through? He's on his best behavior right now but let's see it last. Isn't T.O. a saint until the honeymoon phase passes?People and players are what they are. Most don't change. What have you seen out of Moss that would indicate he is no longer the person he once was?

 

[cstu]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The Pats should be able to match the Raiders win total from the past two seasons by the halfway point in the season. He's been a workout and practive warrior since coming to town. He's already doing things and acting way differently then when he was on other teams.

It looks good so far and as a fan I hope he continues his turnaround. FF-wise I think he's extremely over-valued (ADP in the 40's) and won't touch him this year.

 

[Borat]

I highly doubt Welker sees anywhere NEAR 75 receptions. Don't get me wrong, he's fine in the slot, but throwing to him 5+ times a game is not going to win you games.

Nonsense.

New England gave up a 2nd round pick for Welker. If, as anticipated, he is to fill Troy Brown's old role as the guy who gets open for a few yards and a 1st down on 3rd, throwing to him 5+ times a game is going to win you plenty of games. Maybe even a Super Bowl.

In leagues that give points for return yardage, Welker could very well be a FF stud this season.

 

[identikit]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.

Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness.

Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The Pats should be able to match the Raiders win total from the past two seasons by the halfway point in the season. He's been a workout and practive warrior since coming to town. He's already doing things and acting way differently then when he was on other teams.

It looks good so far and as a fan I hope he continues his turnaround. FF-wise I think he's extremely over-valued (ADP in the 40's) and won't touch him this year.

I agree 100%Id

 

[Borat]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness. Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The general consensus from those who know him seems to be that he gave up because his team was losing, not because he wasn't the focal point of the offense. You never heard about Moss dogging it when he was winning in Minnesota.I guess we'll find out this season if Moss becomes a problem, but I wouldn't count on it. He knows he'll be cut if he acts up, and he knows he has something to prove this year.

 

[bostonfred]

There is so much wrongheaded thinking in this thread.

The Patriots changed their offense significantly when they added Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland. They went from having 19 TE receptions as a team to 63. Of course they changed. They added good players and they used them.

In 2002, the Patriots had a 61/39 pass/run ratio. In 2003, they won a Superbowl on the back of a 53/47 pass/run ratio. In 2004, they added Corey Dillon, and became 48/52 in favor of the run. Of course they changed. They added a good player and they used him.

Only once in Brady's career had a TE gotten more than 30 receptions, and never 40. Last year, Watson had 49. Why? Because none of the receivers were very good.

The Patriots don't have a philosophy of spreading the ball around just because it's the cool thing to do. They spread it around because they have to. They didn't throw to Caldwell and Watson because they were the best receivers in the world. They threw to them because they were the best receivers on the team. They run the ball when they have a good running back, they pass the ball when they have good receivers, and they will throw more to the best receivers on the team.

This shouldn't come as a surprise. Everyone would do this. I can understand someone saying that Moss' skills have declined, but I can't for the life of me understand why someone would say, yeah, Moss is good, but they probably won't throw to him that much. That's just silly.

 

[Ed4252]

In leagues that give points for return yardage, Welker could very well be a FF stud this season.

Is he going to be returning kicks also this year, not just punts? If so, In 2006, in leagues that give pts for return yardage (.05pts per return yard for kicks and punts), he ranked as the 19th WR, doing better than WRs like fitzgerald, holmes and cotchery.In 2005, he did better than WRs like Lee Evans, Roy Williams and Branch and ranked as the 23rd WR.

 

[David Yudkin]

What have you seen out of Moss that would indicate he is no longer the person he once was?

Moss showed up to camp several days early for activities that were voluntary and no one expected him to go to. He's been hitting the weight room, has been hanging around late learning the offense, has been getting in early for the team activities. He's gone out of his way to do the same drills and exercises as everyone else and has functioned as a team player. None of those used to happen in the past. And he was timed in the 40 essentially at the same speed as he used to run when he first came into the league. By all accounts he's picking up the offense, working on refining his routes, and in great shape.Whether this is an act or whether this translates into production on the playing field is anyone's guess,

 

[jurb26]

This shouldn't come as a surprise. Everyone would do this. I can understand someone saying that Moss' skills have declined, but I can't for the life of me understand why someone would say, yeah, Moss is good, but they probably won't throw to him that much. That's just silly.

I've said this for years. People are crazy if they think good coaches do not adapt to the players around them. BB = great coach. Enough said.

 

[jurb26]

What have you seen out of Moss that would indicate he is no longer the person he once was?

Moss showed up to camp several days early for activities that were voluntary and no one expected him to go to. He's been hitting the weight room, has been hanging around late learning the offense, has been getting in early for the team activities. He's gone out of his way to do the same drills and exercises as everyone else and has functioned as a team player. None of those used to happen in the past. And he was timed in the 40 essentially at the same speed as he used to run when he first came into the league. By all accounts he's picking up the offense, working on refining his routes, and in great shape.Whether this is an act or whether this translates into production on the playing field is anyone's guess,

Randy Moss has always been a hard worker.... despite what the haters would like you to believe.

 

[Gopher State]

Moss and Stallworth get the coverage, Mr. Watson gets the rec's, he will be the big suprise this year at TE.

 

[bostonfred]

Moss and Stallworth get the coverage, Mr. Watson gets the rec's, he will be the big suprise this year at TE.

He had 49 catches last year. I will give you 2 to 1 odds he does not have 50 this year.

 

[chris1969]

Have been considering making a purchase as well and was hoping to find opinions of people who have used them before. I have seen in several of their articles an offhand reference to the fact that they have Frank Gore as the number 1 overall player.

Yep, and they have one of the big 3 RBs very, very low.

Forget the guys catching, bump the guy throwing to just a hair below Manning. If Glenn retires, maybe even above Manning.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

There is so much wrongheaded thinking in this thread. The Patriots changed their offense significantly when they added Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland. They went from having 19 TE receptions as a team to 63. Of course they changed. They added good players and they used them. In 2002, the Patriots had a 61/39 pass/run ratio. In 2003, they won a Superbowl on the back of a 53/47 pass/run ratio. In 2004, they added Corey Dillon, and became 48/52 in favor of the run. Of course they changed. They added a good player and they used him. Only once in Brady's career had a TE gotten more than 30 receptions, and never 40. Last year, Watson had 49. Why? Because none of the receivers were very good. The Patriots don't have a philosophy of spreading the ball around just because it's the cool thing to do. They spread it around because they have to. They didn't throw to Caldwell and Watson because they were the best receivers in the world. They threw to them because they were the best receivers on the team. They run the ball when they have a good running back, they pass the ball when they have good receivers, and they will throw more to the best receivers on the team. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Everyone would do this. I can understand someone saying that Moss' skills have declined, but I can't for the life of me understand why someone would say, yeah, Moss is good, but they probably won't throw to him that much. That's just silly.

Finally, a voice of reason. The Patriots haven't always spread the ball in the Brady/Belichick era. In 2001, Troy Brown caught 101 balls, Patten caught 51 and no one else caught more than 30. In 2002, it was Brown with 97 (in 14 games), Patten with 61 and no one else with 45. Brown hurt his knee that year and has never been the same. HE was once uncoverable in the slot. Since then, they spread the ball because no one has been good enough to throw to regardless of coverage. They attack match ups out of necessity. Reche CAldwell does not beat double coverage. Jabar Gaffney did not beat double coverage. Nor did Branch, Givens, or anyone else they put out. If Randy Moss can consistently get open, he will get the ball a lot. If Wes Welker gets open a ton, he will get the ball. They could easily catch 40-45% of all the balls thrown. The NE philosophy is not to spread the spread the ball around. It is to attack the opposition where NE has the best chance to win. Personnel has previously dictated spreading the ball. I don't believe that it still does.

 

[phthalatemagic]

But they gave up a second round pick to get him, and it also doesn't make sende that they would want to burn a second round pick on a guy that will only get 30 receptions on the season.

Spending a 2nd round pick on one of the best returners in the game is well worth it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Moss and Stallworth get the coverage, Mr. Watson gets the rec's, he will be the big suprise this year at TE.

He had 49 catches last year. I will give you 2 to 1 odds he does not have 50 this year.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Let's assume Randy Moss quit on him team in Oakland (like that's the reason they had one of the worst offenses ever) so what? He doesn't play there anymore. He plays for the Patriots now. From what I hear they're pretty good. He only "quits" on bad teams.

Randy Moss is one of the greatest wide receivers of all time and he now gets to play with Tom Brady one of (if not the) greatest quarterbacks of all time. How isn't this a match made in heaven? It's really that simple folks. A slot wide receiver and the incredibly overrated Donte Stallworth are not going to keep Moss from returning to greatness.

Brady to Moss. Live it. Learn it. Love it.

I'm sure how you can expect a guy who doesn't give 100% when he's the focal point of the offense to give 100% now that he's merely another WR on a team that spreads the ball around. Maybe being in NE will change him but I wouldn't put money on it.

The Pats should be able to match the Raiders win total from the past two seasons by the halfway point in the season. He's been a workout and practive warrior since coming to town. He's already doing things and acting way differently then when he was on other teams.

It looks good so far and as a fan I hope he continues his turnaround. FF-wise I think he's extremely over-valued (ADP in the 40's) and won't touch him this year.

Randy Moss is overvalued as a 3rd-4th round pick. In your words extremely overvalued. This is the same player who is at worst the 5th greatest wide receiver of all time (and still only 30 years old). One bad season on one of the worst offensive teams ever and now he's not even worth a 4th round pick? This is insane. Yet you're not the only person to think this way. Not in the slightest.There's thinking too much and totally overanalyzing a situation and then there's not thinking enough and acting purely on emotion. Getting a player of Randy Moss' ability with a 3rd-4th round pick should be considered a crime. He's gonna make people look so stupid this season.

 

[lord_helmet]

It sounds promising for Moss

"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

 

[pizzatyme]

I don't think there will be a #1 in the true sense of the definition. Sure, there will be a player who gets targeted the most, but I don't think any one player will be targeted a good amount more than anyone else. It will be fairly evenly distributed. So from a fantasy perspective, I don't think NE WRs are going to be particularly reliable from week to week.

Well, now that they have 2 WRs clearly heads and tails above the rest, I think that will change.MossStallworthWelkerbacks and TEsanyone else

From what I'm hearing, Welker could see 75+ receptions as a younger version of Troy Brown. He's getting billed as the underneath, move-the-chains guy. Stallworth likely will be the deep threat and will see fewer receptions but lots of big plays. I suspect Moss will be a blend of the two and will get anything from WR screens to deep fly patterns and all plays in between.Given the talent they have now, I also think that they will be able to get the ball to who they want better than they did in the past as all the receivers mandate coverage where as last year the talent they had was not as intimidating. Good defenses were able to go with single coverage and stuff the run and the Pats had some trouble moving the ball (see Denver, Miami, and Jets games as examples). I doubt that teams will be able to do that this year as there will be more guys with better skills to worry about.I've also heard rumblings that the Pats brass has been a little disappointed in Watson's development and he may be the odd man out in terms of number of targets. I still think he will do well with so many other receivers spreading the field, leaving him underneath with more room to ramble.No matter what, the Pats offense should be pretty interesting and more exciting to watch vs other seasons.

I highly doubt Welker sees anywhere NEAR 75 receptions. Don't get me wrong, he's fine in the slot, but throwing to him 5+ times a game is not going to win you games.

Just some food for thought here. Here is Brandon Stokley's stat line from 2004. That year the Colts won some games.68/1077 10 TDs

 

[bostonfred]

It sounds promising for Moss"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

 

[David Yudkin]

It sounds promising for Moss"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

This raises the age old axiom, "Does winning cure all ills?" If Moss is happy to be winning, that may change his previously me first attitude problem.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Randy Moss, Wes Welker, or Donte Stallworth? As if there's a choice. Is this some kind of joke? This is paralysis by analysis at it's finest.

I cant believe there is even a question on this.

OK, so who do you guys see as the "obvious" choice? I seriously don't know.Stallworth is a very talented receiver in his prime. Randy is not what he once was, but is still just scary enough to keep a lot of coverage away from Stallworth.I think Stallworth is the guy to have on the Pats.

 

[bostonfred]

It sounds promising for Moss"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

This raises the age old axiom, "Does winning cure all ills?" If Moss is happy to be winning, that may change his previously me first attitude problem.

I agree. And I have no problem with someone downgrading him or even taking him off their draft board for this. I have no problem with people saying they watched him play and they thought he had lost a step. I disagree strongly, though, with someone who says that the Patriots won't throw to him because they like to spread the ball around too much. That's just not being realistic. Of course they'll throw to their #1 receiver more. Everyone does that. Tell me you don't think he's that much better than Stallworth at this point in his career, and while I'll really, really disagree with that, I'll at least understand. But the people in here saying the Pats never have a #1 receiver are forgetting the fact that the Pats have never had a #1 receiver.

 

[David Yudkin]

It sounds promising for Moss"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

This raises the age old axiom, "Does winning cure all ills?" If Moss is happy to be winning, that may change his previously me first attitude problem.

I agree. And I have no problem with someone downgrading him or even taking him off their draft board for this. I have no problem with people saying they watched him play and they thought he had lost a step. I disagree strongly, though, with someone who says that the Patriots won't throw to him because they like to spread the ball around too much. That's just not being realistic. Of course they'll throw to their #1 receiver more. Everyone does that. Tell me you don't think he's that much better than Stallworth at this point in his career, and while I'll really, really disagree with that, I'll at least understand. But the people in here saying the Pats never have a #1 receiver are forgetting the fact that the Pats have never had a #1 receiver.

Collectively we heard the same thing with Owens and the Eagles (in terms of not having a #1 receiver) and Owens came in and lit it up. And Owens was the same age as Moss is now. Are people really thinking that at 30 Moss' skills have eroded so badly that if he gave 100% that he'd still be mediocre?

 

[burd]

There is so much wrongheaded thinking in this thread. The Patriots changed their offense significantly when they added Daniel Graham, Christian Fauria and Cam Cleeland. They went from having 19 TE receptions as a team to 63. Of course they changed. They added good players and they used them. In 2002, the Patriots had a 61/39 pass/run ratio. In 2003, they won a Superbowl on the back of a 53/47 pass/run ratio. In 2004, they added Corey Dillon, and became 48/52 in favor of the run. Of course they changed. They added a good player and they used him. Only once in Brady's career had a TE gotten more than 30 receptions, and never 40. Last year, Watson had 49. Why? Because none of the receivers were very good. The Patriots don't have a philosophy of spreading the ball around just because it's the cool thing to do. They spread it around because they have to. They didn't throw to Caldwell and Watson because they were the best receivers in the world. They threw to them because they were the best receivers on the team. They run the ball when they have a good running back, they pass the ball when they have good receivers, and they will throw more to the best receivers on the team. This shouldn't come as a surprise. Everyone would do this. I can understand someone saying that Moss' skills have declined, but I can't for the life of me understand why someone would say, yeah, Moss is good, but they probably won't throw to him that much. That's just silly.

The difference is that in Minn, CPepp looked to Moss as soon as there was any trouble. Pepp would chuck the ball into coverage because he had faith in Moss to fight for the ball. But Moss isn't that receiver anymore and Brady is a better QB in that he doesn't have to rely on any one player to get him out of trouble. Moss will get his catches, but his days as the being the team's superstar are over if he plans on staying in NE longterm. Oh, not to mention that it's known that defenses can get into Moss' head by neutralizing him. So long as things are going good for him, he'll be fine. Let's see how much of a "happy-camper" he is when defenses focus on eliminating him from NE's game plan by doubling up on him. I think I remember something about Moss dogging it and being a malcontent when he's not happy ..... i'm not wasting a high pick on someone w/ so many question marks. I'd rather spend the same pick on a safe WR who will consistently produce good numbers week in week out.

 

[burd]

w/ 3 very good WRs, people honestly think that one receiver will dominate? Fitz and Boldin, Harrison and Wayne ... teams w/ more than one very good WR tend split catches

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Brady has had between 474 and 601 pass attempts per year. The 474 was in Corey Dillon's big year in 2004. The 601 was the year that they couldn't stop the run in 2002. I think their defense is good enough that 600 is out of the question. I don't think they're going to hammer Maroney, Morris and Faulk so much that we'll see 474, either. Belichick likes to step on his opponent's throats, not blindly run the clock down, unless he's up by 15+ in the second half. I think he'll be in the mid-high range for pass attempts, so I'll call it 550 pass attempts. Brady's completion percentage has been between 60.2 and 63.9. His best years were 2001, when he was throwing to Troy Brown a lot, and 2005, when Branch and Givens both had their best seasons. This will be the best set of receivers he has ever had. I'd say he should have at least a 63% completion percentage, and it may even be higher. 550 pass attempts x 63% is about 350 completions. Brady had 334 completions in 2005, and 373 in 2002, compared with 288, 319 and 317 in his three other full years. This seems like a little higher, but reasonable estimate for him this year. Over the last five years, here's how the receptions have split out:2001WR Total Receptions 190WR1 101WR2 51WR3 14TE 19RB 93BRADY 264 (40 completions by other passers)2002WR Total Receptions 222WR1 97WR2 61WR3 43TE 63RB 93BRADY 373 (5 completions by other passers)2003WR Total Receptions 178WR1 57WR2 40WR3 34TE 66RB 88BRADY 317 (5 completions by other passers)2004WR Total Receptions 162WR1 56WR2 44WR3 35TE 65RB 70BRADY 293 (4 completions by other passers)2005WR Total Receptions 211WR1 78WR2 59WR3 39TE 53RB 84BRADY 334 (14 completions by other passers)2006WR Total Receptions 156WR1 61WR2 43* (*Ben Watson had 49 receptions. Also, the #2 receiver changed throughout the year.)WR3 25* TE 81RB 89BRADY 319 (7 completions by other passers)A couple things to put these numbers in perspective: In 2001 and 2002, Troy Brown was the best receiver on the team. He had 198 receptions in those two seasons. So it is possible for the #1 receiver to have 100 catches. In 2005, Branch was the best receiver on the team. He had 78 receptions. When Brady has a top receiver, it is possible for him to get ~80 receptions. The #1 receiver on the team has never had less than 56 receptions. The #1 recever on the team averages 75 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The #2 receiver on the team has never had more than 61 receptions. The #2 receiver on the team averages 50 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The #3 receiver on the team has never had more than 43 receptions. The #3 receiver on the team averages 32 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The tight ends have had between 53 and 65 receptions every year but 2001, when they only had 19 receptions, and last year, when they had an uncharacteristically high 81. The tight end corps has averaged 63 receptions per year. 2001's low water mark is largely because they had no talent at the position. They drafted Daniel Graham in the first round in 2002 and added Fauria and Cleeland. 2006's high water mark is largely because Watson was the #2 receiver on the team with 49 receptions, compared with the #2 WR who had 43. The running backs have pretty steadily had between 84 and 93 receptions. The only outlier year, with 70, was the year Corey Dillon arrived. He ran more, and caught less. So let's take this information and use it to project the Pats. We'll assume the TEs will no longer be considered the top receiving option. The Patriots now have legitimate WR threats. We'll also assume the running backs continue to contribute in the passing game, but maybe a little lower than normal. And last but not least, we'll assume that Moss is a little closer to a Troy Brown/Deion Branch skill level than Reche Caldwell. 2007WR Total Receptions 200Moss 82Welker 56Stallworth 52WR4-6 28TE 50RB 84BRADY 350Rumors of Moss' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even in Oakland, he averaged over 15 yards per catch, and a TD/9 receptions. It's his receptions that dropped down. If you assume those same numbers from him in New England, you could predict him for: Moss 82 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 TDsThat seems like a reasonable estimate to me. And that would make him a top 10 WR. Note that I'm not making any wild predictions about Moss, or the New England offense here. I'm assuming they stay around historical levels, that Moss continues to produce near his average YPC in Oakland, and that he fills the #1 receiver role for New England. All of those seem like reasonable assumptions to me. Now let's assess his risk/reward. Could he do better than this? Sort of. I don't think it's likely that he'll get 100 receptions. But he could catch more TDs, since he's probably the best red zone receiver on the team. Could he do worse than this? Definitely. It's remotely possible that he won't be the WR1, or that he'll miss time (he has only missed eight games in his career, but they've all been in the last three years). Could he get benched or cut? Yes. Belichick will keep him on a short leash. Overall, I'd put him at the bottom of the top ten, or maybe just outside it, because of the risk. I think there's a better chance that he busts than that he's the guy that carries your team to the championship, but I think he's a better WR option than almost anyone outside the top ten receivers. I think he deserves consideration somewhere between picks 30 and 50. Right now his ADP is on the low end of that range at 44th overall.

Not sold on Moss, but great post.

 

[David Yudkin]

w/ 3 very good WRs, people honestly think that one receiver will dominate? Fitz and Boldin, Harrison and Wayne ... teams w/ more than one very good WR tend split catches

All the guys you just mentioned are/were/could be Top 10 WRs. Moss owners would be overjoyed to get that level of production.

 

[bostonfred]

Not sold on Moss, but great post.

Thanks, man. It was a little disheartening writing that book and then reading 10 or 20 posts about how someone who said "They spread the ball around" had said all that needed to be said. But that's the shark pool in late july/early august, I guess.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Not sold on Moss, but great post.

Thanks, man. It was a little disheartening writing that book and then reading 10 or 20 posts about how someone who said "They spread the ball around" had said all that needed to be said. But that's the shark pool in late july/early august, I guess.

I was thinking the same thing.

 

[Andy Hicks]

Brady has had between 474 and 601 pass attempts per year. The 474 was in Corey Dillon's big year in 2004. The 601 was the year that they couldn't stop the run in 2002. I think their defense is good enough that 600 is out of the question. I don't think they're going to hammer Maroney, Morris and Faulk so much that we'll see 474, either. Belichick likes to step on his opponent's throats, not blindly run the clock down, unless he's up by 15+ in the second half. I think he'll be in the mid-high range for pass attempts, so I'll call it 550 pass attempts. Brady's completion percentage has been between 60.2 and 63.9. His best years were 2001, when he was throwing to Troy Brown a lot, and 2005, when Branch and Givens both had their best seasons. This will be the best set of receivers he has ever had. I'd say he should have at least a 63% completion percentage, and it may even be higher. 550 pass attempts x 63% is about 350 completions. Brady had 334 completions in 2005, and 373 in 2002, compared with 288, 319 and 317 in his three other full years. This seems like a little higher, but reasonable estimate for him this year. Over the last five years, here's how the receptions have split out:2001WR Total Receptions 190WR1 101WR2 51WR3 14TE 19RB 93BRADY 264 (40 completions by other passers)2002WR Total Receptions 222WR1 97WR2 61WR3 43TE 63RB 93BRADY 373 (5 completions by other passers)2003WR Total Receptions 178WR1 57WR2 40WR3 34TE 66RB 88BRADY 317 (5 completions by other passers)2004WR Total Receptions 162WR1 56WR2 44WR3 35TE 65RB 70BRADY 293 (4 completions by other passers)2005WR Total Receptions 211WR1 78WR2 59WR3 39TE 53RB 84BRADY 334 (14 completions by other passers)2006WR Total Receptions 156WR1 61WR2 43* (*Ben Watson had 49 receptions. Also, the #2 receiver changed throughout the year.)WR3 25* TE 81RB 89BRADY 319 (7 completions by other passers)A couple things to put these numbers in perspective: In 2001 and 2002, Troy Brown was the best receiver on the team. He had 198 receptions in those two seasons. So it is possible for the #1 receiver to have 100 catches. In 2005, Branch was the best receiver on the team. He had 78 receptions. When Brady has a top receiver, it is possible for him to get ~80 receptions. The #1 receiver on the team has never had less than 56 receptions. The #1 recever on the team averages 75 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The #2 receiver on the team has never had more than 61 receptions. The #2 receiver on the team averages 50 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The #3 receiver on the team has never had more than 43 receptions. The #3 receiver on the team averages 32 receptions over the course of Brady's career. The tight ends have had between 53 and 65 receptions every year but 2001, when they only had 19 receptions, and last year, when they had an uncharacteristically high 81. The tight end corps has averaged 63 receptions per year. 2001's low water mark is largely because they had no talent at the position. They drafted Daniel Graham in the first round in 2002 and added Fauria and Cleeland. 2006's high water mark is largely because Watson was the #2 receiver on the team with 49 receptions, compared with the #2 WR who had 43. The running backs have pretty steadily had between 84 and 93 receptions. The only outlier year, with 70, was the year Corey Dillon arrived. He ran more, and caught less. So let's take this information and use it to project the Pats. We'll assume the TEs will no longer be considered the top receiving option. The Patriots now have legitimate WR threats. We'll also assume the running backs continue to contribute in the passing game, but maybe a little lower than normal. And last but not least, we'll assume that Moss is a little closer to a Troy Brown/Deion Branch skill level than Reche Caldwell. 2007WR Total Receptions 200Moss 82Welker 56Stallworth 52WR4-6 28TE 50RB 84BRADY 350Rumors of Moss' demise have been greatly exaggerated. Even in Oakland, he averaged over 15 yards per catch, and a TD/9 receptions. It's his receptions that dropped down. If you assume those same numbers from him in New England, you could predict him for: Moss 82 receptions, 1200 yards, 9 TDsThat seems like a reasonable estimate to me. And that would make him a top 10 WR. Note that I'm not making any wild predictions about Moss, or the New England offense here. I'm assuming they stay around historical levels, that Moss continues to produce near his average YPC in Oakland, and that he fills the #1 receiver role for New England. All of those seem like reasonable assumptions to me. Now let's assess his risk/reward. Could he do better than this? Sort of. I don't think it's likely that he'll get 100 receptions. But he could catch more TDs, since he's probably the best red zone receiver on the team. Could he do worse than this? Definitely. It's remotely possible that he won't be the WR1, or that he'll miss time (he has only missed eight games in his career, but they've all been in the last three years). Could he get benched or cut? Yes. Belichick will keep him on a short leash. Overall, I'd put him at the bottom of the top ten, or maybe just outside it, because of the risk. I think there's a better chance that he busts than that he's the guy that carries your team to the championship, but I think he's a better WR option than almost anyone outside the top ten receivers. I think he deserves consideration somewhere between picks 30 and 50. Right now his ADP is on the low end of that range at 44th overall.

Awesome post. Didn't get the love it deserved

 

[switz]

I highly doubt Welker sees anywhere NEAR 75 receptions. Don't get me wrong, he's fine in the slot, but throwing to him 5+ times a game is not going to win you games.

Nonsense.

New England gave up a 2nd round pick for Welker. If, as anticipated, he is to fill Troy Brown's old role as the guy who gets open for a few yards and a 1st down on 3rd, throwing to him 5+ times a game is going to win you plenty of games. Maybe even a Super Bowl.

In leagues that give points for return yardage, Welker could very well be a FF stud this season.

They traded for him prior to acquiring Moss and Stallworth. Yes he's a hard worker, but that's not going to make him a better WR than Moss or Stallworth. Please... people stop with this Welker nonsense already.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

It sounds promising for Moss

"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

This raises the age old axiom, "Does winning cure all ills?" If Moss is happy to be winning, that may change his previously me first attitude problem.

I agree. And I have no problem with someone downgrading him or even taking him off their draft board for this. I have no problem with people saying they watched him play and they thought he had lost a step. I disagree strongly, though, with someone who says that the Patriots won't throw to him because they like to spread the ball around too much. That's just not being realistic. Of course they'll throw to their #1 receiver more. Everyone does that. Tell me you don't think he's that much better than Stallworth at this point in his career, and while I'll really, really disagree with that, I'll at least understand. But the people in here saying the Pats never have a #1 receiver are forgetting the fact that the Pats have never had a #1 receiver.

Stanley Morgan was pretty good back in the day. He was probably the best wr the Patriots ever had. Until they acquired Randy Moss.In 1986 Stanley Morgan had a monster season. Almost 1500 yds and 10 TDS. He scored 209 fantasy points. If everything goes right in 07 I think Moss can top that.

 

[switz]

Just some food for thought here. Here is Brandon Stokley's stat line from 2004. That year the Colts won some games.68/1077 10 TDs

Well, sure there's always a chance. However that was also the year Manning threw 49 TD passes, it was one of the best QB performances in history.NE is not the Colts, different system. More balanced, better, but they are not offensive superpowers. Expecting to have three WRs with over 65 catches and over 1000 yards is not very realistic. Possible? Sure. Probable, not at all.

 

[David Yudkin]

It sounds promising for Moss

"(KFFL) Associated Press reports New England Patriots S Rodney Harrison said WR Randy Moss has not lost a step. "He's fast, faster and fastest," Harrison said of his new teammate. Harrison noted Moss didn't drop a pass during summer practices and has been a mainstay next to him in the weight room."

This is what it comes down to for me. Which seems more likely, that Moss was unmotivated because he played for the sucky Raiders, or that he has lost a step and isn't that good anymore? I think it's the former. That's not necessarily good news for the Patriots, either. I think he'll come in motivated, but will he stay that way? Will he blow up at some point? These are real risks. I don't think there's a question of his talent level - he's still the runaway best receiver on the team. This seems a lot like the supposedly malcontent Dillon, who came here after the worst year of his career. Unfortunately, it could also be a lot like Owens, who started out well but blew up.

This raises the age old axiom, "Does winning cure all ills?" If Moss is happy to be winning, that may change his previously me first attitude problem.

I agree. And I have no problem with someone downgrading him or even taking him off their draft board for this. I have no problem with people saying they watched him play and they thought he had lost a step. I disagree strongly, though, with someone who says that the Patriots won't throw to him because they like to spread the ball around too much. That's just not being realistic. Of course they'll throw to their #1 receiver more. Everyone does that. Tell me you don't think he's that much better than Stallworth at this point in his career, and while I'll really, really disagree with that, I'll at least understand. But the people in here saying the Pats never have a #1 receiver are forgetting the fact that the Pats have never had a #1 receiver.

Stanley Morgan was pretty good back in the day. He was probably the best wr the Patriots ever had. Until they acquired Randy Moss.In 1986 Stanley Morgan had a monster season. Almost 1500 yds and 10 TDS. He scored 209 fantasy points. If everything goes right in 07 I think Moss can top that.

I believe the reference was intended to mean IN THE BRADY ERA.

 

[Borat]

I highly doubt Welker sees anywhere NEAR 75 receptions. Don't get me wrong, he's fine in the slot, but throwing to him 5+ times a game is not going to win you games.

Nonsense.

New England gave up a 2nd round pick for Welker. If, as anticipated, he is to fill Troy Brown's old role as the guy who gets open for a few yards and a 1st down on 3rd, throwing to him 5+ times a game is going to win you plenty of games. Maybe even a Super Bowl.

In leagues that give points for return yardage, Welker could very well be a FF stud this season.

They traded for him prior to acquiring Moss and Stallworth. Yes he's a hard worker, but that's not going to make him a better WR than Moss or Stallworth. Please... people stop with this Welker nonsense already.

Pretty sure I never so much as even hinted that Welker is a better WR than Moss or Stallworth. Please point to anyone in this thread implying that.But of course, if putting words into other people's mouths is what you have to do to get your point across (whatever that point was supposed to have been), then by all means...

Anyway, even if Moss and Stallworth had already been in the fold, it wouldn't have surprised me if the Patriots would have gone ahead and given up the 2nd rounder for Welker anyway. He's only 26, he's an exceptional slot receiver, he's versatile, he's a bonafide return man on a team that really doesn't have anyone else to fill that role on a consistent basis, and he's a team player.

In other words, he's a perfect fit for the Patriots.