Who is going to be drafted too soon next year? (1 Viewer)

[msudaisy26]

Who do you have? I will give one at each position

qb - Russell Wilson - I love the guy, I think he has all the intangibles that you just can't teach and I don't think he will drop off as a NFL quarterback. With all that said, I believe this was the perfect storm for him this year, horrible line and running game, missing many key guys on defense. In the offseason I expect them to work on the line and the running game, I also expect Graham to walk. Depending on your scoring in your league and who is in your league Wilson is going to be going just after Brady and Rodgers, probably in the 4th or 5th round.

rb - Alvin Kamara - Ditto what I said about Wilson. The difference is I can't see him being a rb1 in a part time role again, he has been so efficient and I think there has to be some regression, he is going to be taken in the 2nd round as a rb1 and I just can't do it, if you are getting him near the end of the 3rd as your rb2 then I am all for it.

wr - Marvin Jones - right now he is wr 14 in ppr in ppg. He was horrible in 2015 and started off bad in 2016. He has been great 6 of the last 8 weeks, but I am not buying it. Tate hasn't been the same since the injury against the Saints, the running game is invisible and I expect Golladay to be much better next year. He is probably going to go in 6th round in redrafts next year, but I am staying away. If he goes 2 or 3 rounds later I would consider it.

te - Jimmy Graham - This is the hardest group to find a player that will be drafted too soon, after Kelce, Ertz, and Gronk I don't see a tight end that will go until the 6th round unless it is a tight end premium. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't even a top 12 tight end next year. He doesn't look like the same player and I am not going to bank on him getting 10+ touchdowns again. If I had to bet right now he is going to be a the 5th or 6th tight end off the board, but barring injuries I see guys like Engram, Reed, Doyle, Henry, and probably a few others passing him in production next year.

 

[fightingillini]

The easy answer is.....any player coming off of a career year.

Wentz would have considered if he did not tore his ACL.

Kamara is a good choice, but I will add his teammate Mark Ingram, for similar reasons.

 

[Arodin]

Wentz will still be drafted too high IMO.

QB:  Alex Smith is another, but I'm going to go with Andrew Luck.  No telling if he'll be back to his old form ever, but as the season wears on, more and more "experts" will start touting him as a potential league-winner in the midrounds and his ADP will go way too high for the risk.

RB:  McCoy.  I keep being wrong in expecting him to break down, but if I keep predicting it, I have to be right eventually.  Don't see him having Gore-like longevity.  Melvin Gordon will go too high also.  He has high accumulated stats on the season, but isn't a top-5 talent imo.

WR:  Robbie Anderson will be this year's Michael Thomas...a good player drafted too high for his stock.  if Nelson and/or Cobb leaves, I expect drafters to push Devante Adams up into the elite tier, and he doesn't belong there.

 

[jrwall]

Kenyan Drake - There always seems to be one name who blows up late in the season and then gets drafted too high. I don’t think what Drake is doing is a fluke, but I don’t anticipate him being anything more than an RB2 or Flex over the course of a season. Nothing wrong with that, but I could see some reaching and taking him as RB1/2. 

 

[whiskey7]

Funchess

 

[jrwall]

Wentz will still be drafted too high IMO.

QB:  Alex Smith is another, but I'm going to go with Andrew Luck.  No telling if he'll be back to his old form ever, but as the season wears on, more and more "experts" will start touting him as a potential league-winner in the midrounds and his ADP will go way too high for the risk.

RB:  McCoy.  I keep being wrong in expecting him to break down, but if I keep predicting it, I have to be right eventually.  Don't see him having Gore-like longevity.  Melvin Gordon will go too high also.  He has high accumulated stats on the season, but isn't a top-5 talent imo.

WR:  Robbie Anderson will be this year's Michael Thomas...a good player drafted too high for his stock.  if Nelson and/or Cobb leaves, I expect drafters to push Devante Adams up into the elite tier, and he doesn't belong there.

Disagree on Adams, assuming he stays in Green Bay and Cobb/Nelson leaves. I don't see how he doesn't make good on the last two seasons and move into the elite tier. He's proven that he's not quarterback dependant and has come up clutch countless times. Plus, he's playing with quite possibly the best signal-caller in the league. Now, if he moves on to a new team I could see some overreaching. 

 

[need2know]

Who do you have? I will give one at each position

qb - Russell Wilson - I love the guy, I think he has all the intangibles that you just can't teach and I don't think he will drop off as a NFL quarterback. With all that said, I believe this was the perfect storm for him this year, horrible line and running game, missing many key guys on defense. In the offseason I expect them to work on the line and the running game, I also expect Graham to walk. Depending on your scoring in your league and who is in your league Wilson is going to be going just after Brady and Rodgers, probably in the 4th or 5th round.

rb - Alvin Kamara - Ditto what I said about Wilson. The difference is I can't see him being a rb1 in a part time role again, he has been so efficient and I think there has to be some regression, he is going to be taken in the 2nd round as a rb1 and I just can't do it, if you are getting him near the end of the 3rd as your rb2 then I am all for it.

wr - Marvin Jones - right now he is wr 14 in ppr in ppg. He was horrible in 2015 and started off bad in 2016. He has been great 6 of the last 8 weeks, but I am not buying it. Tate hasn't been the same since the injury against the Saints, the running game is invisible and I expect Golladay to be much better next year. He is probably going to go in 6th round in redrafts next year, but I am staying away. If he goes 2 or 3 rounds later I would consider it.

te - Jimmy Graham - This is the hardest group to find a player that will be drafted too soon, after Kelce, Ertz, and Gronk I don't see a tight end that will go until the 6th round unless it is a tight end premium. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't even a top 12 tight end next year. He doesn't look like the same player and I am not going to bank on him getting 10+ touchdowns again. If I had to bet right now he is going to be a the 5th or 6th tight end off the board, but barring injuries I see guys like Engram, Reed, Doyle, Henry, and probably a few others passing him in production next year.

Your wrong about kamara.  He's the truth

 

[dmac37]

Wentz will still be drafted too high IMO.

QB:  Alex Smith is another, but I'm going to go with Andrew Luck.  No telling if he'll be back to his old form ever, but as the season wears on, more and more "experts" will start touting him as a potential league-winner in the midrounds and his ADP will go way too high for the risk.

RB:  McCoy.  I keep being wrong in expecting him to break down, but if I keep predicting it, I have to be right eventually.  Don't see him having Gore-like longevity.  Melvin Gordon will go too high also.  He has high accumulated stats on the season, but isn't a top-5 talent imo.

WR:  Robbie Anderson will be this year's Michael Thomas...a good player drafted too high for his stock.  if Nelson and/or Cobb leaves, I expect drafters to push Devante Adams up into the elite tier, and he doesn't belong there.

What the hell are you expecting from Thomas??? He may be the most consistent FF WR out there and #9 WR in my PPR league........

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Who do you have? I will give one at each position

qb - Russell Wilson - I love the guy, I think he has all the intangibles that you just can't teach and I don't think he will drop off as a NFL quarterback. With all that said, I believe this was the perfect storm for him this year, horrible line and running game, missing many key guys on defense. In the offseason I expect them to work on the line and the running game, I also expect Graham to walk. Depending on your scoring in your league and who is in your league Wilson is going to be going just after Brady and Rodgers, probably in the 4th or 5th round.

rb - Alvin Kamara - Ditto what I said about Wilson. The difference is I can't see him being a rb1 in a part time role again, he has been so efficient and I think there has to be some regression, he is going to be taken in the 2nd round as a rb1 and I just can't do it, if you are getting him near the end of the 3rd as your rb2 then I am all for it.

wr - Marvin Jones - right now he is wr 14 in ppr in ppg. He was horrible in 2015 and started off bad in 2016. He has been great 6 of the last 8 weeks, but I am not buying it. Tate hasn't been the same since the injury against the Saints, the running game is invisible and I expect Golladay to be much better next year. He is probably going to go in 6th round in redrafts next year, but I am staying away. If he goes 2 or 3 rounds later I would consider it.

te - Jimmy Graham - This is the hardest group to find a player that will be drafted too soon, after Kelce, Ertz, and Gronk I don't see a tight end that will go until the 6th round unless it is a tight end premium. It wouldn't surprise me if he wasn't even a top 12 tight end next year. He doesn't look like the same player and I am not going to bank on him getting 10+ touchdowns again. If I had to bet right now he is going to be a the 5th or 6th tight end off the board, but barring injuries I see guys like Engram, Reed, Doyle, Henry, and probably a few others passing him in production next year.

I like this list, especially Wilson.

 

[zoonation]

Your wrong about kamara.  He's the truth

Agreed.  And he’ll go in round one.  Not two.  

 

[BigTex]

Kenyan Drake - There always seems to be one name who blows up late in the season and then gets drafted too high. I don’t think what Drake is doing is a fluke, but I don’t anticipate him being anything more than an RB2 or Flex over the course of a season. Nothing wrong with that, but I could see some reaching and taking him as RB1/2. 

Miami will likely draft a running back.

Tex

 

[strykerpks]

I disagree with the Kamara and Adams takes but that's cool. We can agree to disagree.

I think people might be dismissing someone like Deshaun Watson in a discussion like this. I think he has the goods, don't get me wrong, but I can see people reaching into the 5th if not higher in redraft.

 

[rockaction]

Your face is an edit. 

Hwarf.  

 

[TZMarkie]

 After tonight's performance, KAREEM HUNT .

 Now, granted, many things can happen between now and the end of the season, but even if he only has "good" numbers from here on out, many people will be looking to get him earlier than they should.

Whenever someone has a hot run in the fantasy playoffs, non-sophisticated owners tend to reach for those players.

 A perfect example of this is BLAKE BORTLES after his hot run a couple of years back. He carried many owners to the playoffs with all those garbage time points, and the next year he was the "talk of the drafts" in my leagues, as owners thought they were stealing getting him in like round 6-7 or so.

I think Adam Thielen is another who will be drafted far too early. This strong run just can't continue, and they have other weapons as well. There are a few others I am thinking, but I will let a few others chime in and see if anyone posts the 2 I have in mind specifically.

 TZM

 

[rockaction]

 After tonight's performance, KAREEM HUNT .

 Now, granted, many things can happen between now and the end of the season, but even if he only has "good" numbers from here on out, many people will be looking to get him earlier than they should.

Whenever someone has a hot run in the fantasy playoffs, non-sophisticated owners tend to reach for those players.

 A perfect example of this is BLAKE BORTLES after his hot run a couple of years back. He carried many owners to the playoffs with all those garbage time points, and the next year he was the "talk of the drafts" in my leagues, as owners thought they were stealing getting him in like round 6-7 or so.

I think Adam Thielen is another who will be drafted far too early. This strong run just can't continue, and they have other weapons as well. There are a few others I am thinking, but I will let a few others chime in and see if anyone posts the 2 I have in mind specifically.

 TZM

I think Thielen's production is sustainable, though, actually, as his contribution largely comes from yards and not touchdowns. 

That's just my take on him. Diggs being hurt this year has helped him, but I still think he's value when you can draft him, depending on when, of course. 

 

[rockaction]

Who do you have? I will give one at each position

qb - Russell Wilson - I love the guy, I think he has all the intangibles that you just can't teach and I don't think he will drop off as a NFL quarterback. With all that said, I believe this was the perfect storm for him this year, horrible line and running game, missing many key guys on defense. In the offseason I expect them to work on the line and the running game, I also expect Graham to walk. Depending on your scoring in your league and who is in your league Wilson is going to be going just after Brady and Rodgers, probably in the 4th or 5th round.

I honestly think -- and I'm playing it straight here -- that Fant coming back only helps Russell and that they continue to draft given Russell's skill set. I don't see major upgrades coming on the line; I see them going with defense. That said, he's their franchise at this point. I'm pretty sure he's a top-tier guy this year and years in the future.   

 

[Dacomish]

I honestly think -- and I'm playing it straight here -- that Fant coming back only helps Russell and that they continue to draft given Russell's skill set. I don't see major upgrades coming on the line; I see them going with defense. That said, he's their franchise at this point. I'm pretty sure he's a top-tier guy this year and years in the future.   

This - as a Hawks Homer the blind "Tom Cable can work wonders with what we have" theory that Sea employs will remain status quo. They will end up drafting an OL in like the 4th round and hope for the best. Money will continue to go into defense to try and lock up aging stars and Wilson will continue to run for his life. They will recycle the same RBs and hope for health meaning no running game again which means Wilson remains a top 5 QB. Sad but pretty much Sea MO. 

 

[-OZ-]

QB - Agreed with Arodin about Andrew Luck.  He might come back to be the QB he was, but someone else will pay a higher price than I would to find out. Agreed on Watson too.  He's fun to watch but unlikely to keep his 5 game hot streak going to the same degree anyway.  

RB - Kareem Hunt is the easy choice here if people are taking him high in the 1st round.  I think he can maintain low RB1 status but he might be drafted as a top 5 back, which I'm just not willing to do. 

WR - If Ben hangs it up, Antonio Brown.  I know, Mr. Consistent, but without Ben he isn't going to be quite the same.  AJ Green, great player but not as great as his reputation.  Not quite as big a difference between reputation / production as Dez Bryant, but I think people are finally beginning to think Dez isn't an elite WR.

TE - Have to agree with Jimmy Graham, although if all of us see him as overdrafted maybe he slips a bit?  Watch for Evan Engram to be drafted as the #4 TE which is just slightly higher than I'd take him.  Not a major overdraft and maybe he is next year's Ertz but I'd need to see what the Giants do in the off season before drafting him #4 (plus they are highly unlikely to have a QB in play for MVP).  If he falls to 7-10 I'd jump on the upside.  

 

[Bronco Billy]

RB - Kareem Hunt is the easy choice here if people are taking him high in the 1st round.  I think he can maintain low RB1 status but he might be drafted as a top 5 back, which I'm just not willing to do. 

So you’re guessing that Reid just won’t figure out that he’s got to get Hunt at least 15 touches a game?  Because when Hunt gets sufficient workload he’s a top 5 RB. 

 

[-OZ-]

So you’re guessing that Reid just won’t figure out that he’s got to get Hunt at least 15 touches a game?  Because when Hunt gets sufficient workload he’s a top 5 RB. 

I'm just a bit skeptical about the Chiefs next year, assuming they move on from Smith.  He's my top back in a dynasty league so I hope you're right, also have Hill there so I hope I'm wrong. 

 

[msudaisy26]

I like what I am seeing here, but I disagree with Luck. I think Luck is smart enough to overcome any limitations his body might put on him.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I'm just a bit skeptical about the Chiefs next year, assuming they move on from Smith.  He's my top back in a dynasty league so I hope you're right, also have Hill there so I hope I'm wrong. 

Ah.  So you’re expecting Mahomes to get the nod and struggle?  That’s a very interesting thought.  I can’t help but think if Mahomes starts that they’ll lean on Hunt a little more.  Let’s keep this close by for discussion in a couple of months.

 

[-OZ-]

So you’re guessing that Reid just won’t figure out that he’s got to get Hunt at least 15 touches a game?  Because when Hunt gets sufficient workload he’s a top 5 RB. 

I'm just a bit skeptical about the Chiefs next year, assuming they move on from Smith.  He's my top back in a dynasty league so I hope you're right, also have Hill there so I hope I'm wrong. 

Ah.  So you’re expecting Mahomes to get the nod and struggle?  That’s a very interesting thought.  I can’t help but think if Mahomes starts that they’ll lean on Hunt a little more.  Let’s keep this close by for discussion in a couple of months.

Fwiw I'm not dropping him far, this isn't a "players to avoid" list. But I won't be taking him top 5, which is where I suspect he'll go.

 

[Arodin]

So you’re guessing that Reid just won’t figure out that he’s got to get Hunt at least 15 touches a game?  Because when Hunt gets sufficient workload he’s a top 5 RB. 

Reid will be in his 20th season as a head coach, and fantasy footballers have been complaining about his inexplicable RB use for a long time now.  Why do you think that will suddenly change?

 

[Bronco Billy]

Reid will be in his 20th season as a head coach, and fantasy footballers have been complaining about his inexplicable RB use for a long time now.  Why do you think that will suddenly change?

I guess I look at Reid’s track record with FF RBs and am optimistic.

 

[Arodin]

What the hell are you expecting from Thomas??? He may be the most consistent FF WR out there and #9 WR in my PPR league........

In my standard scoring league, he is wr14 (and only wr17 by per-game average).  That isn't bad, but it isn't what folks taking him in the late 1st/early 2nd as a WR1 were hoping for.  

 

[-OZ-]

In my standard scoring league, he is wr14 (and only wr17 by per-game average).  That isn't bad, but it isn't what folks taking him in the late 1st/early 2nd as a WR1 were hoping for.  

He's only scored 4 TDs this year which is why he's not top 10 in standard. But he's top 7 in yardage, 6th in receptions.  I'll take him if anyone is that disappointed.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Your wrong about kamara.  He's the truth

87 attempts at 7.0 a carry.

Amazing stat.

Also a very tiny amount of carries which is exactly like he had in college. He had 9 rushes a game in college (24 games) and only 7 so far (14 games) in the pros.

 

[-OZ-]

87 attempts at 7.0 a carry.

Amazing stat.

Also a very tiny amount of carries which is exactly like he had in college. He had 9 rushes a game in college (24 games) and only 7 so far (14 games) in the pros.

I like the guy's game a lot but that's cause for minor concern. Well maybe concern isn't the right word, but can he be the lead back over Ingram for a year?  I'll assume Ingram isn't a free agent because he won't be all pro. That's an incredible rbbc. They've both been awesome, but how high would you take either one? Kamara probably should go first of the two, but when?  If zoonation is right and he's a first round pick, that's too high IMO. Could pay off, sure. Dude could be a David Johnson type.  But that's a risky pick as long as Ingram remains.

 

[wormburner]

I'll be curious to see if the "wait on a D/ST and K" strategery takes a hit next season.

With the suckitude at TE this season, after the obvious of Kelce, Gronk and Ertz, I wonder if people will over-reach for the next tier of TEs next season.

Jags, Ravens and Rams D/ST are averaging double-digits, this may start a run on D/STs too soon.

Zuerlein, Gostkowski and Boswell also averaging double-digits, though the separation from the next tier is not as wide.

It seems like the off-season mocks on FantasyFootballCalculator take a few weeks for ADP to settle down, then it turns out nothing like your live draft.

 

[msudaisy26]

I'll be curious to see if the "wait on a D/ST and K" strategery takes a hit next season.

With the suckitude at TE this season, after the obvious of Kelce, Gronk and Ertz, I wonder if people will over-reach for the next tier of TEs next season.

Jags, Ravens and Rams D/ST are averaging double-digits, this may start a run on D/STs too soon.

Zuerlein, Gostkowski and Boswell also averaging double-digits, though the separation from the next tier is not as wide.

It seems like the off-season mocks on FantasyFootballCalculator take a few weeks for ADP to settle down, then it turns out nothing like your live draft.

The problem is knowing which defenses those are, none of those defenses were expected to be in the elite tier and drafted earlier. The Vikings, Broncos, Seahawks were the elite tier.

 

[msudaisy26]

I like the guy's game a lot but that's cause for minor concern. Well maybe concern isn't the right word, but can he be the lead back over Ingram for a year?  I'll assume Ingram isn't a free agent because he won't be all pro. That's an incredible rbbc. They've both been awesome, but how high would you take either one? Kamara probably should go first of the two, but when?  If zoonation is right and he's a first round pick, that's too high IMO. Could pay off, sure. Dude could be a David Johnson type.  But that's a risky pick as long as Ingram remains.

This is my thought. Hard to see him averaging 7.0 ypc ever again. I doubt he will be a 1st round pick. You have Bell, D. Johnson, Gurley, Hunt, Zeke, Fournette, Gordon, McCoy, will all be picked ahead of him for running backs, then receivers are Brown, OBJ, Hopkins, Julio. That would put him 12th at best.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

as an aside, Jags were number 1 projected DEF by ESPN.  I know because they were the first DEF to go in my work league and I thought it was definitely too soon, but I guess it has paid off.

hmm, post below has me wondering if my leaguemate was somehow looking at something wrong, or if it has something specific to do with our league (which shouldn't be that different for DEF scoring).

 

[-OZ-]

The problem is knowing which defenses those are, none of those defenses were expected to be in the elite tier and drafted earlier. The Vikings, Broncos, Seahawks were the elite tier.

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/rankings/defense

Pre-Season Rankings

RankNamePosTeamBye

1.Denver DefenseDEFDEN5

2.Houston DefenseDEFHOU7

3.Kansas City DefenseDEFKC10

4.Seattle DefenseDEFSEA6

5.New England DefenseDEFNE9

6.Arizona DefenseDEFARI8

7.Minnesota DefenseDEFMIN9

8.NY Giants DefenseDEFNYG8

9.Carolina DefenseDEFCAR11

10.Pittsburgh DefenseDEFPIT9

11.Philadelphia DefenseDEFPHI10

12.Baltimore DefenseDEFBAL10

13.LA Rams DefenseDEFLAR8

14.Atlanta DefenseDEFATL5

15.Jacksonville DefenseDEFJAX8

Sure looks like you'd have been better off punting on d.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Kenyan Drake - There always seems to be one name who blows up late in the season and then gets drafted too high. I don’t think what Drake is doing is a fluke, but I don’t anticipate him being anything more than an RB2 or Flex over the course of a season. Nothing wrong with that, but I could see some reaching and taking him as RB1/2. 

I'll throw out Alex Collins in this vain.  Bit of a journeyman who finally got a chance, but who knows what next year will bring.  Is Woodhead healthy?  Do they draft someone in the middle rounds?  It will need to be looked at critically, but feels like a situation that will look better than it is.

 

[msudaisy26]

I'll throw out Alex Collins in this vain.  Bit of a journeyman who finally got a chance, but who knows what next year will bring.  Is Woodhead healthy?  Do they draft someone in the middle rounds?  It will need to be looked at critically, but feels like a situation that will look better than it is.

Where are you coming up with your last 2 posts? Unless your scoring is different no one had Jacksonville as a top 5 defense. Collins is a journeyman? He has been in the NFL for 2 years on 2 teams.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Where are you coming up with your last 2 posts? Unless your scoring is different no one had Jacksonville as a top 5 defense. Collins is a journeyman? He has been in the NFL for 2 years on 2 teams.

yeah, i edited about the Jags.  I don't know what to say, I just remember everyone thinking it was crazy and then the guy had his list there from ESPN.

journeyman probably not the best term.  just meant a guy who, while pedigreed to an extent in college wasn't exactly a centerpiece of either team's plans and it took a injuries for him to get the job. 

not easy to read, but this seems like it is saying Jags were projected 3rd in ESPN: http://games.espn.com/ffl/tools/projections?display=alt&slotCategoryId=16&startIndex=0     sorry for the hijack.

 

[petekrum]

This is my thought. Hard to see him averaging 7.0 ypc ever again. I doubt he will be a 1st round pick. You have Bell, D. Johnson, Gurley, Hunt, Zeke, Fournette, Gordon, McCoy, will all be picked ahead of him for running backs, then receivers are Brown, OBJ, Hopkins, Julio. That would put him 12th at best.

I wouldn't be comfortable having him as my RB1, but man if I could get him at the turn as my RB2 I would love it.

 

[matuski]

I'll throw out Alex Collins in this vain.  Bit of a journeyman who finally got a chance, but who knows what next year will bring. 

What?