Who would you rather have for this offense: (1 Viewer)

[Mike Shanahan Fan]

5x5, using OBP, 14 teamer:

C: Baker (Doumit DL)

1B: Konerko

2B: Kinsler

3B: A. Ramirez (Feliz bench)

SS: Tulowitzki

OF: Granderson

OF: Lind

OF: N. Cruz

DH: Duncan

Bench: Cust

 

[hooter311]

Upton in any format

 

[Mike Shanahan Fan]

Upton in any format

Rationale?

 

[Limp Ditka]

Upton in any format

Rationale?

Mine would be the + side of SB potential since I consider all other things equal.

 

[hooter311]

Upton in any format

Rationale?

The Upton brothers have as much talent as anyone in the league. I still don't think that BJ has flashed his potential yet this season, but one of these months he is going to take off.OBP Upton > McLouthBill James, Chone, and Marcel all projected Upton to have around a .380 and McLouth a .350. As of today Upton's OBP is .276 and McLouth .393. McLouth is due for a correction down, Upton upwards.RunsUpton > McLouthHe hits higher in the order with a much better lineup.RBI McLouth > UptonMcLouth plays in a better lineup position for RBI's, but the back end of the Rays lineup is still pretty solid compared to the P and other assorted junk at the back of the Pirate's lineup. McLouth will finish with more RBI's, but it won't be by much.HRUpton = McLouthMcLouth overachieved last season compared to the rest of his career stats, we haven't begun to see the limit of what Upton can do. His performance in the playoffs last year prove that if he gets hot, the sky is the limit for him.SBUpton > McLouthSpeedwise they are probably closer than they appear on paper, but Upton has proven successful on the base paths and Tampa loves to get their guys in scoring positions. Upton will finish with at least 15 more SB than McLouth, maybe even 20 more.I see all the potential on Upton's side and only an overachiever on McLouth's side. Not hating on the guy and I'm sure he can piece together a successful season, but BJ could end up as an absolute beast.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't think Upton's shoulder is right, I slightly preferred Upton preseason but not nearly enough to acquire him in any leagues (thankfully). Right now he's little different than the Michael Bourn's and Willy Tavares'. Let someone else deal with it. McLouth's legit, I think he's good for 25/20, a middling avg, and good but not great counting stats.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Bill James, Chone, and Marcel all projected Upton to have around a .380 and McLouth a .350. As of today Upton's OBP is .276 and McLouth .393. McLouth is due for a correction down, Upton upwards.

Gambler's fallacy. Nobody's "due" for anything.In fact, I would say a .480 OPS at this point in the season is enough reason to worry that something isn't right with Upton, especially after he only hit 9 HRs last year. He's a mystery at this point, but you know what you're getting with McLouth.

 

[Mike Shanahan Fan]

Bill James, Chone, and Marcel all projected Upton to have around a .380 and McLouth a .350. As of today Upton's OBP is .276 and McLouth .393. McLouth is due for a correction down, Upton upwards.

Gambler's fallacy. Nobody's "due" for anything.In fact, I would say a .480 OPS at this point in the season is enough reason to worry that something isn't right with Upton, especially after he only hit 9 HRs last year. He's a mystery at this point, but you know what you're getting with McLouth.

Yeah, I don't buy the argument that they're magically going to end up at where they were projected. If there's something wrong with Upton's shoulder that causes him to strike out more and hit more grounders, he's not going to get to .380.

 

[hooter311]

When I evaluate trends, I'm not stating that they are going to magically end up at any number, but Upton has been a consistent player his entire baseball career. With a larger sample size, players are going to gravitate towards their statistical means.

Upton had a .386 OBP in 474 AB in 2007

He had a .383 OBP in 531 AB in 2008

His K ratio is right around 35% right now, highest than its ever been at any level.

Yes he is still coming back from shoulder surgery and his swing is still recovering, he sat out all ST so there is obviously going to be an adjustment period which is where I feel he is at now.

McLouth has improved his OBP every year in the league, but it was still an unimpressive .356 last season in what may have very likely been a career year. Even if he does improve again, his ceiling is no where near Upton's.

That's just how I evaluate it, obviously they are close enough that it may be a personal choice as an argument can be made from both sides. If you are convinced that Upton is still suffering from his injury, then take the safe bet with McLouth.

 

[Mike Shanahan Fan]

When I evaluate trends, I'm not stating that they are going to magically end up at any number, but Upton has been a consistent player his entire baseball career. With a larger sample size, players are going to gravitate towards their statistical means.Upton had a .386 OBP in 474 AB in 2007He had a .383 OBP in 531 AB in 2008His K ratio is right around 35% right now, highest than its ever been at any level. Yes he is still coming back from shoulder surgery and his swing is still recovering, he sat out all ST so there is obviously going to be an adjustment period which is where I feel he is at now.McLouth has improved his OBP every year in the league, but it was still an unimpressive .356 last season in what may have very likely been a career year. Even if he does improve again, his ceiling is no where near Upton's.That's just how I evaluate it, obviously they are close enough that it may be a personal choice as an argument can be made from both sides. If you are convinced that Upton is still suffering from his injury, then take the safe bet with McLouth.

I'm not convinced of anything, but I want to take into account the fact that there's a chance he might be Willy Taveras/Michael Bourn this year, which doesn't help me much at all.And while he's always been able to take walks, the low contact rate and the complete lack of power this year is pretty troubling. This on top of the fact that his Minor League numbers have never pointed to him being a 25-30 HR type of guy in the bigs. And while McLouth's didn't either, he's now been able to sustain a pretty decent power stroke for a year and a half now. Upton hit for very little power this year, and even less this year.

 

[Kenneth Cosgrove]

Ended up taking McLouth, then trading him and Barmes for the correct answer to this question...Matt Kemp.