Who's gonna bust? (1 Viewer)

[Michael Brown]

Multiple threads about breakouts and upside and sleepers, but we didn't do the thread this year about which guys will NOT break out. To me it's much more important to avoid the 2011 Adam Dunn than it is to draft the 2011 Asdrubal Cabrera due to what it costs you. Not all of these guys will outright stink necessarily, but they will hurt for where they're being drafted.

I'll start off with a few:

Michael Pineda

Alex Avila

Paul Goldschmidt

Emilio Bonifacio

Jose Valverde

Johnny Cueto

Tommy Hanson

ETA: Yoenis Cespedes

 

[Smack Tripper]

Where is cespedes going?

As an OF4 I like his upside in a 2b and 3b league

As for busts;

Wright

Reyes

Crawford

Arod

Beltran

Kubel

Fielder

Phillips

Braun

 

[TS Garp]

Guys I've been avoiding:

Jose Valverde (due for an implosion)

Joe Nathan (elevated fly ball rate and hr/9 rate and he's moving to the most hr friendly park in the majors. also an injury risk and has very capable closer-in-waiting behind him)

Josh Beckett (ended the year on a very poor note and may have his every other year problem again)

Carlos Marmol (way too volatile for my tastes)

Justin Verlander (will still be great but he's due for some regression and the defense behind him is scary)

Jacoby Ellsbury (regression likely and be careful of him running a lot less)

Michael Pineda (has bust written all over him)

Tim Lincecum (like Verlander, will still put up numbers, but his stats have been trending the wrong way and much more erratic than he used to be)

Yu Darvish (buy him, enjoy a great 2-3 months and sell)

 

[MAC_32]

Tough question, most busts are injury related. So I usually avoid anyone nursing preseason injuries. I got Baker late in most leagues to stash and took a flier on Ryan Howard in round 19 today, pretty sure that's it though.

If I had to say a few guys that just won't live up to their price for non-injury reasons I'd go with Napoli, Hosmer, Kennedy, Zobrist, Ackley, Asdrubal, Hell Boy, and Beckett.