Why arent 3rd Round Reverse Drafts More Popular? (1 Viewer)

[atl3695]

Why do the Football Guys Players Championship and other high stakes leagues (FFPC,WCOFF) still use serpentine drafts instead of some form of 3rd round reverse/bonzai.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...quino_3rr12.php

Anyone that's been playing fantasy football for more than a couple of years knows that the teams up front have a big edge. This is especially true today with the players being more top heavy than ever. After the top 7 or 8 players, there is very little difference between players 9 and 25. For a top 4 team getting a stud rb and also another 2 of the top 30 or so players gives those teams a nice edge. While teams picking from the end can overcome this, they are no doubt at a disadvantage.

While the 3rd round reverse doesn't completely eliminate this problem, it goes a long way in evening things out. After playing in a couple of 3RR leagues, I find it hard to play in the standard serpentine drafts. While the draft should be 3RR in individual leagues, it should be even more so in challenges like the FGPC where ever entry should have as equal a chance of winning as possible.

Serpentine drafts are still around, of course, because that is how it has always been done and what people are used to. However, I feel that if Football Guys and other high stakes events took the lead on this, 3RR would become much more widespread and would make the fantasy football community better as a whole.

 

[Grid71]

Actually, I thought it would be an auction league after hearing about it. Everyone gets a fair chance for each player.

Being a standard serpentine draft hasn't hurt the public interest though. Can't say it would keep me from playing either.

 

[atl3695]

Actually, I thought it would be an auction league after hearing about it. Everyone gets a fair chance for each player.Being a standard serpentine draft hasn't hurt the public interest though. Can't say it would keep me from playing either.

The response for the league has been great and I may end up getting a team myself. I just think they would get the same response using a 3RR while making it more equal to all entrants. Auction would be the absolute best, but it would eliminate 80% of fantasy players who only do drafts. I assume the FG uses the serpentine as that is what most are used to and they wanted to attract to most people so post was not really a criticism of FG in particular, I was just curious as to why the 3RR draft hasn't become more popular.

 

[Novice2]

Because serpentine rocks and everything else doesn't.

That is all

 

[David Dodds]

Actually, I thought it would be an auction league after hearing about it. Everyone gets a fair chance for each player.Being a standard serpentine draft hasn't hurt the public interest though. Can't say it would keep me from playing either.

The response for the league has been great and I may end up getting a team myself. I just think they would get the same response using a 3RR while making it more equal to all entrants. Auction would be the absolute best, but it would eliminate 80% of fantasy players who only do drafts. I assume the FG uses the serpentine as that is what most are used to and they wanted to attract to most people so post was not really a criticism of FG in particular, I was just curious as to why the 3RR draft hasn't become more popular.

To really do 3RR right, I think you also need to do KDS (allowing people to have preference over their draft slots). And that's all good in theory, but drastically slows things down both in explaining these terms and getting everyone's inputs, etc. In the end we don't think it's worth it. Last year there was a definite advantage drafting towards the back half of the draft. 3RR compounded that. With the FPC rules (dual flex and 1.5 PPR for TEs), I really don't see a huge advantage from a particular spot in a serpentine draft. One (or more) of the big 4 RBs will likely be a huge bust and those teams with that dud will be sunk. Towards the end of the draft you can go RB, WR or TE leaving much more to the players you decide to roll with.The FFPC had a study regarding every team that made the fantasy playoffs last year and there definitely was no bias towards a top selection. In fact it showed just the opposite to be true. I think 3RR/KDS was mostly an over-reaction to perception. In the Marshall Faulk years, it probably made some sense. Years after it's introduction, it appears to be losing ground in popularity with most favoring tweaking league scoring (start more WRs, add flex positions, 1.5 PPR for TE, etc) to make the drafts fairer. That was our approach as well.

 

[atl3695]

Actually, I thought it would be an auction league after hearing about it. Everyone gets a fair chance for each player.Being a standard serpentine draft hasn't hurt the public interest though. Can't say it would keep me from playing either.

The response for the league has been great and I may end up getting a team myself. I just think they would get the same response using a 3RR while making it more equal to all entrants. Auction would be the absolute best, but it would eliminate 80% of fantasy players who only do drafts. I assume the FG uses the serpentine as that is what most are used to and they wanted to attract to most people so post was not really a criticism of FG in particular, I was just curious as to why the 3RR draft hasn't become more popular.

To really do 3RR right, I think you also need to do KDS (allowing people to have preference over their draft slots). And that's all good in theory, but drastically slows things down both in explaining these terms and getting everyone's inputs, etc. In the end we don't think it's worth it. Last year there was a definite advantage drafting towards the back half of the draft. 3RR compounded that. With the FPC rules (dual flex and 1.5 PPR for TEs), I really don't see a huge advantage from a particular spot in a serpentine draft. One (or more) of the big 4 RBs will likely be a huge bust and those teams with that dud will be sunk. Towards the end of the draft you can go RB, WR or TE leaving much more to the players you decide to roll with.The FFPC had a study regarding every team that made the fantasy playoffs last year and there definitely was no bias towards a top selection. In fact it showed just the opposite to be true. I think 3RR/KDS was mostly an over-reaction to perception. In the Marshall Faulk years, it probably made some sense. Years after it's introduction, it appears to be losing ground in popularity with most favoring tweaking league scoring (start more WRs, add flex positions, 1.5 PPR for TE, etc) to make the drafts fairer. That was our approach as well.

Thanks for the reply.I agree that the advantage may change on year to year basis as players such as Frank Gore and Chris Johnson were available last year at the end of the 1st round and Ray Rice Aaron Rodgers were available round 3 or later. There will always be players like that but for every Ray Rice, there are 2 Darren McFaddens. I agree that the dual flex and 1.5 for TE's changes things to even it up.But what about the regular leagues that most play in with standard scoring. My reason for wanting the FFPC and other leagues to use 3RR was to make the idea more popular and accepted. While it does change year to year, generally speaking I think if you gave most fantasy players the choice of where they would prefer to draft, the vast majority would definitely prefer the top 6 to the bottom 6. Do you feel that the edge of picking up front has been overblown in regular leagues also?

 

[meatwad1]

I won my 10 teamer last year picking from the 9 spot.

In my opinion, picking up front is a double edged sword. Sure, it is nice to start off with a top 4 player, but in reality these rankings mean nothing once the season starts and you are almost forced into choosing someone by groupthink.

 

[Tchula]

you can give a moron the #1 pick, and odds are he wont win the league or even make the playoffs. IMO that is why 3rr isn't more popular. Too many sharks make the playoffs from any draft position.

 

[ft_ball_fn]

I've been playing forever and never heard of a 3RR draft.. (nor KDS)... could someone post a quick explanation of how it works?

 

[Binky The Doormat]

I've been playing forever and never heard of a 3RR draft.. (nor KDS)... could someone post a quick explanation of how it works?

Had heard of them but wasn't real clear ...did some looking - results below3RR stands for 3rd Round Reverse. This refers to a particular method of establishing draft order in a fantasy football league (or other fantasy league, for that matter). A very common method of establishing a draft order is to use a serpentine style draft order where the order that the teams pick in the 2nd round of the draft is the opposite of the order that the teams drafted in the first round. In the serpenting method, whomever gets the LAST pick in the first round then gets the FIRST pick in the 2nd round. Whoever had the first overall pick does not pick again until the FINAL pick of the 2nd round. Then the 3rd round repeats the order used in the 1st, the 4th repeats the order used in the 2nd, and so on. In a 3rd Round Reverse format draft, the procedure is exactly the same as in a serpentine draft EXCEPT the 3rd round draft order is exactly the same as the 2nd round. Then the 4th round follows the order used in the 1st round, with the 5th round following the order used in the 2nd round, and a regular serpentine style alternating order for all remaining rounds of the draft. Some belive the 3RR style draft is a more competitive way to ensure that all fantasy team owners are given an equal shot at obtaining a talented squad in the draft. 3RR drafts are generally not used in leagues with a small number of teams, and are usually only found in use in larger leagues. KDSSetting Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) PreferencesThe NFBC will use Kentucky Derby Style (KDS) preferences for draft preferences in NFBC Classic leagues. All owners can set their Draft Preferences by going to their team on the game website, then going to MY SETTINGS (at the far right) and then pulling down to the link that says DRAFT PREFERENCES. There you will see a list of 1 through 15 in order. Here's what KDS does: The KDS process allows owners to rank their order of preference for Draft Day, ranking their preferences 1 through 15 BEFORE the leagues are randomly selected. Some owners would rather draft in the middle, if they are selected early in their league; others like to stay near the top and others like to move down to the lower end. KDS allows that if you are fortunate enough. A sample KDS from an owner could look like this: 3, 2, 1, 7, 6, 8, 15, 14, 4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13. If an owner wants the third pick and he is selected No. 1 overall in his league, he would choose 3 as his top option and he would then be moved to third in that league on Draft Day if he were picked first out of the hat. NFBC officials will look at every owner's Draft Preferences after the leagues and orders are randomly selected and then announce the draft orders for each league

 

[Alex - FFPC]

you can give a moron the #1 pick, and odds are he wont win the league or even make the playoffs. IMO that is why 3rr isn't more popular. Too many sharks make the playoffs from any draft position.

But in a draft full of sharks... that #1 pick (and top 4) dominate. Its an advanced technique/ruleset.

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

 

[oukurt]

Because serpentine rocks and everything else doesn't.That is all

It rocks if you have an early pick.

 

[Dez]

I don't get why there isn't just a random draw every odd round. That is how I always run my IFL redraft league.

You draw for the 1st, 3rd, 5th ect and reverse the 2nd, 4th, 6th ect.

Why should the person who gets the #1 pick overall get the #1 every odd round ?

Why not make it random every other round and let the fantasy gods decide it.

 

[eoMMan]

Because serpentine rocks and everything else doesn't.That is all

It rocks if you have an early pick.

No, not picking until 25th again sucks, imo.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

In a league I'm in we go like this, and IMO, it;s the best way. 16 teams:

Round 1: Pick order 1-16

Round 2: Pick order 1-16

Round 3: Pick order 16-1 and then serpentine.

Round 4: Pick order 1-16 and so on

 

[ChromeWeasel]

Why do the Football Guys Players Championship and other high stakes leagues (FFPC,WCOFF) still use serpentine drafts instead of some form of 3rd round reverse/bonzai.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...quino_3rr12.php

Anyone that's been playing fantasy football for more than a couple of years knows that the teams up front have a big edge. This is especially true today with the players being more top heavy than ever. After the top 7 or 8 players, there is very little difference between players 9 and 25. For a top 4 team getting a stud rb and also another 2 of the top 30 or so players gives those teams a nice edge. While teams picking from the end can overcome this, they are no doubt at a disadvantage.

While the 3rd round reverse doesn't completely eliminate this problem, it goes a long way in evening things out. After playing in a couple of 3RR leagues, I find it hard to play in the standard serpentine drafts. While the draft should be 3RR in individual leagues, it should be even more so in challenges like the FGPC where ever entry should have as equal a chance of winning as possible.

Serpentine drafts are still around, of course, because that is how it has always been done and what people are used to. However, I feel that if Football Guys and other high stakes events took the lead on this, 3RR would become much more widespread and would make the fantasy football community better as a whole.

Keeper leagues make all that irrelevant. And even if the theory is correct that the top picks have an advantage, you should use that by rewarding the lower-finishing teams from last year with higher picks.I'd MUCH rather have the last pick of the round if you are going to penalize the top picks with one of the reversal/bonsai styles. One pick does not make or break your team. I'd much rather have an extra high round pick than the first one.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I never bought into the hype, even when it was really popular a couple of years ago. The entire scheme was built on a faulty premise. It and a myriad of other "better" (than serpentine) selection formats all tried to "even out" the starting slots. But all of the analysis was based on retrofitting data based on hindsight. So the #1 player was assumed to be the #1 selection and on down the line. But the reality is far from that. The #1 selection isn't always the #1 guy at the end of the year, in fact, he usually isn't. But no one (that I saw) ever did an analysis that actually compared ADP to actual results at the end of the year. Just using the final rankings is much easier, but basically useless. I often prefer a later serpentine selection even if I have the choice of a higher slot, depending on the year. There probably are slightly better positions from year to year, but I don't think they are overly concentrated at the top. Some years yes, some years no. I've never done a 3RR draft, but I think THAT would nearly always give a significant advantage to the bottom of the order, which is the opposite of what the system is trying to achieve.

Frankly, I think 3RR has only stuck around as long as it did because some leagues like to think of themselves as "sharkish" and don't want to use the "guppie" tried and true system. No offense to the guys using it, JMO.

Auction is best, but serpentine is just fine if it isn't an auction crowd.

 

[hotboyz]

I don't get why there isn't just a random draw every odd round. That is how I always run my IFL redraft league.You draw for the 1st, 3rd, 5th ect and reverse the 2nd, 4th, 6th ect.Why should the person who gets the #1 pick overall get the #1 every odd round ?Why not make it random every other round and let the fantasy gods decide it.

Thats exactly what my league does random every other round been doing this for 15 yrs now!

 

[Novice2]

Why arent 3rd Round Reverse Drafts More Popular?

Because like 2 QB leagues they are the suck.

 

[ImTheScientist]

If Im doing a draft and not an auction I would never do anything but 3RR w/ KDS. Anything else is just newb ####.

 

[spOOfy]

In a league I'm in we go like this, and IMO, it;s the best way. 16 teams:Round 1: Pick order 1-16Round 2: Pick order 1-16Round 3: Pick order 16-1 and then serpentine.Round 4: Pick order 1-16 and so on

Wow. Pick 16 gets screwed.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

If Im doing a draft and not an auction I would never do anything but 3RR w/ KDS. Anything else is just newb ####.

THIS is why 3RR is still around. It's like smoking, all the cool kids do it.

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

In a league I'm in we go like this, and IMO, it;s the best way. 16 teams:Round 1: Pick order 1-16Round 2: Pick order 1-16Round 3: Pick order 16-1 and then serpentine.Round 4: Pick order 1-16 and so on

Wow, that's awful.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

In a league I'm in we go like this, and IMO, it;s the best way. 16 teams:Round 1: Pick order 1-16Round 2: Pick order 1-16Round 3: Pick order 16-1 and then serpentine.Round 4: Pick order 1-16 and so on

Wow, that's awful.

It's also a keeper so the guys near the end of the line don't usually have to pick as they already have a keeper there, while the guys in the beginning of the draft usually have none.

 

[atcdav]

We have a 14 team redraft league. We do a random redraw every odd round and snake back the following even round. Everyone seems to like it. For example I have the 13th and 27th for the first 2 rounds and I have the 2nd pick (30th overall) in the third and 55th overall in the 4th and the 57th overall to start the 5th round. Sometimes you get screwed, sometimes you can an advantage but it is all random.

 

[flerbus]

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.

Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12

I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

 

[Godsbrother]

We stick with serpentine because it is easy. I have a bunch of old farts in my league and anything new scares them. Trying to explain 3RR would be excruciating, getting it passed would be impossible.

Interestingly five out of the last seven champs of our league drafted 9 or below so I don't think it is that big of an advantage anyway.

 

[netnalp]

In a league I'm in we go like this, and IMO, it;s the best way. 16 teams:Round 1: Pick order 1-16Round 2: Pick order 1-16Round 3: Pick order 16-1 and then serpentine.Round 4: Pick order 1-16 and so on

Wow. Pick 16 gets screwed.

Yeah that blows. Pick #1 gets (#1,#17) while the 16th guy gets (#16, #32) getting the #33 pick doesn't seem to make up for what team 1 gets. maybe the poster made an error in the order on his post?should be if your doing 3rdRR:1-1616-116-11-16 & serpentine the rest of the way

 

[Sweet Love]

I was in a league like this about 6-7 years back and we nixed this style once online "mocking" became popular. A bunch of us found it impossible to prep for a draft based on the random 3RR that the founders of the league had installed a few years prior to that time. Personally, I think the majority of the better leagues have people who mock to prep for the drafts, and if they can't do that effectively, then they don't want to be in that league...simple as that.

 

[ChromeWeasel]

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.

Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12

I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

If the league results have NOTHING to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks, then BY DEFINITION it's not worth worrying about anything besides a standard snake.

 

[Choke]

Why arent 3rd Round Reverse Drafts More Popular?

People are scared of what they don't know, and assume someone will be getting an advantage.

In truth... the entire draft stays the exact same as it ever was... you simply flip the 3rd round direction, nothing more.

 

[Choke]

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.

Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12

I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

If the league results have NOTHING to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks, then BY DEFINITION it's not worth worrying about anything besides a standard snake.

He is saying its about POINTs, not win-loss.If you are the highest scoring team and yet you go 6-7, or the lowest scoring team and go 10-3... its not your results that the 3RR/Banzai makes more fair (and shouldn't) its the points.

And only from a pre-draft positioning perspective so everyone is on even footing before a pick is ever made. Once the draft starts, however, owners are still free to be world-beaters and patsy's.

 

[Short Corner]

you can give a moron the #1 pick, and odds are he wont win the league or even make the playoffs. IMO that is why 3rr isn't more popular. Too many sharks make the playoffs from any draft position.

But in a draft full of sharks... that #1 pick (and top 4) dominate. Its an advanced technique/ruleset.

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

Dominate may be a little strong but there is definitely an edge to picking in the top 3.

 

[Captain Hook]

Why do the Football Guys Players Championship and other high stakes leagues (FFPC,WCOFF) still use serpentine drafts instead of some form of 3rd round reverse/bonzai.

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2008/0...quino_3rr12.php

Anyone that's been playing fantasy football for more than a couple of years knows that the teams up front have a big edge. This is especially true today with the players being more top heavy than ever. After the top 7 or 8 players, there is very little difference between players 9 and 25. For a top 4 team getting a stud rb and also another 2 of the top 30 or so players gives those teams a nice edge. While teams picking from the end can overcome this, they are no doubt at a disadvantage.

While the 3rd round reverse doesn't completely eliminate this problem, it goes a long way in evening things out. After playing in a couple of 3RR leagues, I find it hard to play in the standard serpentine drafts. While the draft should be 3RR in individual leagues, it should be even more so in challenges like the FGPC where ever entry should have as equal a chance of winning as possible.

Serpentine drafts are still around, of course, because that is how it has always been done and what people are used to. However, I feel that if Football Guys and other high stakes events took the lead on this, 3RR would become much more widespread and would make the fantasy football community better as a whole.

1) Because whether you like it or not, serpentine is more popular2) I personally like 3RR and KDS - Bonzai would be even better, but just because you or I like it does NOT make it better

3) The majority of people in FBGPC would have to be taught the system to make it equitable

4) If you can't stand to draft any other way than what you think is right, stick with the NFFC

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

There are HUGE holes in the reasoning for doing that because of differences between positional scoring (and the fact that total points aren't as important as "value"), but just for grins:In a non PPR 12 team league over the first two rounds, over the last two years:Total points for 1-4 ADP selections 2,880 pts.Total points for 5-8 ADP selections 3,252 pts.Total points for 9-12 ADP selections 3,296 pts.So I hope THAT isn't the justification for giving a bonus to the guys drafting late in the round. Heck, maybe you should look into 2RR and give the poor schmucks at the top of the draft another go at the top of the 2nd.By the way, I ran out of patience to do more years, but 2008 was much much worse for the top picks than even the last two were, the top picks all bombed for the most part.Again, if you assume that the draft order is a perfect resemblance of the final point rankings, yes, there would be an advantage in theory for the top picks. But that is completely irrelevant, because drafts don't really work that way.To be snarky, guppies use standard serpentine, guppies pretending to be sharks use 3RR (and others), and sharks use auction, and serpentine when they have to draft.

 

[Short Corner]

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

There are HUGE holes in the reasoning for doing that because of differences between positional scoring (and the fact that total points aren't as important as "value"), but just for grins:In a non PPR 12 team league over the first two rounds, over the last two years:Total points for 1-4 ADP selections 2,880 pts.Total points for 5-8 ADP selections 3,252 pts.Total points for 9-12 ADP selections 3,296 pts.So I hope THAT isn't the justification for giving a bonus to the guys drafting late in the round. Heck, maybe you should look into 2RR and give the poor schmucks at the top of the draft another go at the top of the 2nd.By the way, I ran out of patience to do more years, but 2008 was much much worse for the top picks than even the last two were, the top picks all bombed for the most part.Again, if you assume that the draft order is a perfect resemblance of the final point rankings, yes, there would be an advantage in theory for the top picks. But that is completely irrelevant, because drafts don't really work that way.To be snarky, guppies use standard serpentine, guppies pretending to be sharks use 3RR (and others), and sharks use auction, and serpentine when they have to draft.

Not having a QB in ADP 1-4 and 21-24 will kind of skew your results. I only ran 2010 but I came up with:ADP 1-4: 1438 pts (VBD: 463)ADP 5-8: 1794 pts (VBD: 427)ADP 9-12: 1467 pts (VBD: 369)

 

[TheAssassin]

FSharks Study

 

[Choke]

Judging by the results of approximately 150 leagues in the 2008 and 2009 FFPC Main Event, Online Satellites and various other leagues, the suggestion that the 1-4 pick dominates is false. And no, we don't use 3RR (or plan to). As far as whether all these leagues were full of sharks or not, I don't know. But you're welcome to jump in and find out for yourself.

The league results have nothing to do with whether or not there is an advantage for the early picks in serpentine.Add up the fantasy scores of only players actually drafted and compare the 1-4 5-8 9-12I'm pretty sure the 1-4 will come out ahead.

There are HUGE holes in the reasoning for doing that because of differences between positional scoring (and the fact that total points aren't as important as "value"), but just for grins:In a non PPR 12 team league over the first two rounds, over the last two years:Total points for 1-4 ADP selections 2,880 pts.Total points for 5-8 ADP selections 3,252 pts.Total points for 9-12 ADP selections 3,296 pts.So I hope THAT isn't the justification for giving a bonus to the guys drafting late in the round. Heck, maybe you should look into 2RR and give the poor schmucks at the top of the draft another go at the top of the 2nd.By the way, I ran out of patience to do more years, but 2008 was much much worse for the top picks than even the last two were, the top picks all bombed for the most part.Again, if you assume that the draft order is a perfect resemblance of the final point rankings, yes, there would be an advantage in theory for the top picks. But that is completely irrelevant, because drafts don't really work that way.To be snarky, guppies use standard serpentine, guppies pretending to be sharks use 3RR (and others), and sharks use auction, and serpentine when they have to draft.

The 3rr/Banzai didnt come from 2 years of serpentine drafting. Its genesis literally came from 25 years of drafting.

 

[Tchula]

One of my leagues is just like this. Stubborn as hell on going 3rr with 16 teams. Funny thing is I say every year if every number in a regular serpentine is the same, if you get a top three pick and I don't lets swap picks straight up. No one will ever take me up on it in three years now. Hello? If it is the same then put your money where your mouth is.

 

[Itchy Amos]

I'm the commissioner of a league that has been together for about 15 years. We switched to 3RR four years ago. We determine the overall draft order by picking numbers out of a hat. #1 gets the first pick of draft slot, #2 gets the second choice of draft slot and so on. To this point, the guys that drew 1-5 have always selected draft slots 1-5. It usually takes until the 6th or 7th selection to find someone who prefers drafting at the end of the round. This tells me that nobody in our league has decided that the end of the round is better than the top end. And before everyone here starts calling us guppies, we are going off the same information that everyone else here is because more than half of the league subscribe to footballguys. My league has been highly competative over the years. Pretty much everyone scours the internet looking to find some kind of advantage. In the past 4 years, our league champion has come from #10, #1, #5 & #7. Thats a pretty good distribution. The last two years we have had 4 or 5 really good teams each year and there hasnt been any correlation to draft slot. Maybe weve just been lucky, but I doubt it.

In the long term, I firmly believe that 3RR will provide much fairer results for the entire league. People that are looking back at the last two or three years are missing the boat, IMO. Recently, the running backs taken at the top of round 1 have not performed as well as expected. While this is not an entire new phenomenon, it certainly has become more pronouced the last few years. Think back a bit further to LT in his prime. Shawn Alexander was there in that same time frame. He followed Priest Holmes, who followed Edgerrin James and Marshall Faulk. We probably had a decade where the guy who got to draft #1, (with #24 & #25) had a massive advantage over everyone else. For the longest time, the guys who drafted 1st and 2nd overall seemed to always be one of the top teams. The last two or three years have really favored those that pick near the end, not because of draft slot, but because they were lucky enough to be left with that years big performer. Three years ago, Chris Johnson almost univerally went to a team at the end of the draft order. Usually teams that draft running backs early, dont focus on that position in rounds 3 and 4. Nearly all of these teams missed out on Arian Foster last year - and I think the same can be said about DeAngelo Williams a few years back.

We all know that drafting number one doesnt guarantee that you'll get the top performer, but does give you the first crack at him. If Arian Foster & Adrian Peterson perform as expected, we will see a return of the massive advantage that early picks can have.

 

[twistd]

Actually, I thought it would be an auction league after hearing about it. Everyone gets a fair chance for each player.Being a standard serpentine draft hasn't hurt the public interest though. Can't say it would keep me from playing either.

The response for the league has been great and I may end up getting a team myself. I just think they would get the same response using a 3RR while making it more equal to all entrants. Auction would be the absolute best, but it would eliminate 80% of fantasy players who only do drafts. I assume the FG uses the serpentine as that is what most are used to and they wanted to attract to most people so post was not really a criticism of FG in particular, I was just curious as to why the 3RR draft hasn't become more popular.

To really do 3RR right, I think you also need to do KDS (allowing people to have preference over their draft slots). And that's all good in theory, but drastically slows things down both in explaining these terms and getting everyone's inputs, etc. In the end we don't think it's worth it. Last year there was a definite advantage drafting towards the back half of the draft. 3RR compounded that. With the FPC rules (dual flex and 1.5 PPR for TEs), I really don't see a huge advantage from a particular spot in a serpentine draft. One (or more) of the big 4 RBs will likely be a huge bust and those teams with that dud will be sunk. Towards the end of the draft you can go RB, WR or TE leaving much more to the players you decide to roll with.The FFPC had a study regarding every team that made the fantasy playoffs last year and there definitely was no bias towards a top selection. In fact it showed just the opposite to be true. I think 3RR/KDS was mostly an over-reaction to perception. In the Marshall Faulk years, it probably made some sense. Years after it's introduction, it appears to be losing ground in popularity with most favoring tweaking league scoring (start more WRs, add flex positions, 1.5 PPR for TE, etc) to make the drafts fairer. That was our approach as well.

The FFPC did a study on two years. My belief is that if you look over a ten year span you would find a significant advantage to an early pick. I'd guess that teams picking in the top 6 of a 12 team draft would make the playoffs about 60% of the time, compared to teams drafting later. I bet your participants believe that. If you did KDS with this standard serpentine draft I'd guess between 80% and 90% would want a pick in the top four. I believe what makes the problem worse is the third round. At least this year and last year I felt the elite talent starts drying up towards the end of the second round, and is gone by the middle of the third round. Which again gives an advantage to an early pick. Let's use your ADP info to make a comparison. Let's say you draft first and take Foster. At the turn you still have three top ten receivers available in Jackson, Wallace, and Austin. So say you start the draft with Foster, Jackson, and Wallace. At the 12 spot, if you choose not to take a QB, you have Mendenhall, Fitzy and Nicks. Say you choose to go with the stud WRs, in Fitzy and Nicks. The RB available at 36 is Blount. With Foster, Jackson, and Wallace you have the #1 RB and the #8 and #9 WRs. Blount, Fitzy and Nicks is the #17 RB and the #4 and #5 WRs. That would seem to be a pretty sizable advantage to the #1 slot. I'm not saying you can't win from a later slot, I just think your margin of error is smaller. You have to draft really well in the later rounds to cover for the disadvantage you started with.The dual flex and 1.5 per catch for TEs does a lot to allow teams more freedom in pursuing strategy, and making the contest interesting. Teams can draft RB heavy, WR heavy, or draft a couple of TEs early with an intention of playing them both. But it does nothing to make the draft fairer. If you have a late pick you are still at a disadvantage.I completely don't understand the claim that the KDS slows a draft down. Have the teams enter preferences in advance, make a deadline of five days before the draft and then all the draft slots can be determined well before the draft. Both the 3RR and the KDS are easy to explain. You aren't trying to explain nuclear physics to eight year olds. Simple 3RR is 1-12, 12-1,12-1, 1-12, serpentine the rest of the way. KDS is simply entering the preferences of what you want as a draft slot. If you don't have preferences the default is 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12. How hard is that?I did the NFFC Online Championship the last two years. Last year I debated between FPC and NFFC. I chose the NFFC because of the KDS and the 3RR. In both the last two years I got close to my preference in draft slot. KDS gives another bit of strategy to figure out as to what draft slot you want. You can try for an early slot to get a stud RB, or get in the middle to get say, a top WR or the last of the stud RBs as you see it, or you can draft at the end with the intention of trying to get two stud WRs. The 3RR makes the later picks at least as desirable as the early slots. In the FPC you are stuck with what you get and you have no influence at all. I chose the FPC this year for two reasons, the scoring system is intriguing, but the escrow sealed the deal. Too many contests have gotten in to money trouble and I don't want to worry about getting my money if I win. You have a great contest, but the standard serpentine draft without KDS is like building a really nice house and having a dirt cow path as a driveway to get there.

 

[dagwood]

At the end of the day, I believe you "win" your league with picks 4-12. You can "lose" by screwing up picks 1-3 but you rarely win your league because of these picks. People get way too caught up in who their first round pick is and should be more focused on value picks they can find in the middle rounds.