Why did NYJ want LT over T.Jones? (1 Viewer)

[CalBear]

Why didn't NY just renegotiate with LT? Who would you rather have for 2 years/$5Mil?

Would I rather have one of the best RBs in NFL history who's 30 years old, or a moderately talented journeyman who's 31? Is this a trick question?

wow, you are pretty far off-base on both points here. calling Jones moderately talented means you havent ever watched him play.

Sure I've watched him play. I've watched him average below 4.0 ypc four different years. I watched him rush 310 times and only score one TD (on 3.6 ypc) his first year in New York. Just to give one example of how a RB who looks washed up can turn things around when his offensive line situation improves.

He's almost a 10K yard rusher and is a near lock to be inside the 20 rushers all time if he plays 2 more years. He is and has always been well-above moderately talented.

Really? You think his first three years in the league, when he averaged 3.5 yards per carry and failed to beat out Michael Pittman and Marcel Shipp for the starting role, he was "well above moderately talented"? How about in Tampa Bay where he again lost his starting job to Michael Pittman? He had some decent seasons in Chicago; best was 314/1335/9 for 4.3 yards per carry in 2005, which was the first season in his career that he had fantasy RB1 performance (#9 overall--his second best was #19). Prior to 2008, in 8 years in the league he had never scored 10 TDs or had 1500 yards from scrimmage, and averaged less than 4.0 ypc for his career. So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

The last part applies to LT as much it applies to TJ. Tomlinson has had years where his ypc was lower (sometimes significantly lower) than Darren Sproules, Mike Tolbert, Jacob Hester, Michael Turner, Jesse Chatman, and Terrell Fletcher.I think what you're citing as a negative for Jones is a fairly common phenomena (where other part time backs gain more on a per carry basis than the lead dog).

 

[Horsec]

Why didn't NY just renegotiate with LT? Who would you rather have for 2 years/$5Mil?

Would I rather have one of the best RBs in NFL history who's 30 years old, or a moderately talented journeyman who's 31? Is this a trick question?

I think watching both backs last year makes your question seem a lot more ridiculous than the OP's. More like:

Would I rather have 20% of one of the best RBs in NFL history who's 30 years old, or 75% of a moderately talented journeyman who's 31?

No matter how good LT was in the past, he doesn't have it anymore, and there's rarely evidence that he ever had it in his running. He's going down on first contact or no contact at all most of time. He can't keep his feet in his cuts. He has almost no explosion in the open field. Even his goal line running efficiency dropped off considerably. Jones was still a pounder last year, wearing down defenses, stamina to break long runs late in games, and in general, a viable NFL RB.

Sigmund, I have much respect... but what about this? TJ's Yards Per Carry in his last 6 games as a Jet-

ATL 2.7

@IND 4.6 *

CIN 2.9

@Cin 2.3

@SD 2.9

@IND 2.6

*- Against backups in the second half.

 

[David Yudkin]

Why didn't NY just renegotiate with LT? Who would you rather have for 2 years/$5Mil?

Would I rather have one of the best RBs in NFL history who's 30 years old, or a moderately talented journeyman who's 31? Is this a trick question?

I think watching both backs last year makes your question seem a lot more ridiculous than the OP's. More like:

Would I rather have 20% of one of the best RBs in NFL history who's 30 years old, or 75% of a moderately talented journeyman who's 31?

No matter how good LT was in the past, he doesn't have it anymore, and there's rarely evidence that he ever had it in his running. He's going down on first contact or no contact at all most of time. He can't keep his feet in his cuts. He has almost no explosion in the open field. Even his goal line running efficiency dropped off considerably. Jones was still a pounder last year, wearing down defenses, stamina to break long runs late in games, and in general, a viable NFL RB.

Sigmund, I have much respect... but what about this? TJ's Yards Per Carry in his last 6 games as a Jet-

ATL 2.7

@IND 4.6 *

CIN 2.9

@Cin 2.3

@SD 2.9

@IND 2.6

*- Against backups in the second half.

No matter how we unwrap this, LT is not going to prove to be anything but similar to Jones. (I realize the main difference will be the OL play between the Jets and the Bolts.)LT's last games of the year down the stretch in 2009 . . .

@ DEN 3.65

KC 3.00

@ CLE 3.20

@ DAL 2.38

CIN 3.69

@ TEN 3.69

WAS 0.50

NYJ 2.00

 

[TS Garp]

Who knows -- I guess they feel that his skill-set, i.e. his pass-catching ability, will complement Greene's style better and that he'll provide insurance in case Washington's recovery hits a snag. But I have to agree with Bloom -- LT has not looked good for a long time. He almost always goes down at first contact. Say what you will about the Chargers' line, but the trend in his YPC over the last four years doesn't lie.

 

[CaptainHook]

what was tj's pass blocking like

 

[Topes]

I think all of your guesses are off. Jones is pure class and always has been, even while the Bears jerked him around with Cedric Benson in town. I don't think you can find a better team player. He would never be a cancer,

Yep, the Chicago locker room was divided over TJ/Benson despite TJ's valiant efforts for team unity over personal pride.Yep, TJ never made waves about wanting more money in New York./sarcasmI've got nothing against Jones. I don't begrudge him his actions. But he's acted in self-interest here and there. He's not the angel folks make him out to be. He's had to struggle with Pittman and Benson and Greene and now Charles. Sucks, but hey, he's a millionaire.

 

[CalBear]

So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

The last part applies to LT as much it applies to TJ. Tomlinson has had years where his ypc was lower (sometimes significantly lower) than Darren Sproules, Mike Tolbert, Jacob Hester, Michael Turner, Jesse Chatman, and Terrell Fletcher.I think what you're citing as a negative for Jones is a fairly common phenomena (where other part time backs gain more on a per carry basis than the lead dog).

Certainly that's true. I just don't see much evidence that Thomas Jones was any more than a mid-range starter before 2008, and I'm not really willing to accept that he suddenly became a great RB in his ninth year in the league.

 

[cstu]

So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

The last part applies to LT as much it applies to TJ. Tomlinson has had years where his ypc was lower (sometimes significantly lower) than Darren Sproules, Mike Tolbert, Jacob Hester, Michael Turner, Jesse Chatman, and Terrell Fletcher.I think what you're citing as a negative for Jones is a fairly common phenomena (where other part time backs gain more on a per carry basis than the lead dog).

Sproles had was a whopping 0.4 YPC better than LT despite LT getting almost all of the goal line carries. As far as Hester, Tolbert, Chatman and Sproles, you can't compare the YPC of guys who at most carried the ball 21, 25, 63 and 61 times respectively to someone who ran the ball 350 times a season. Turner is a great RB in his own right, but his YPC took a big hit when he started carrying the ball 20+ times a game.

 

[David Yudkin]

So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

The last part applies to LT as much it applies to TJ. Tomlinson has had years where his ypc was lower (sometimes significantly lower) than Darren Sproules, Mike Tolbert, Jacob Hester, Michael Turner, Jesse Chatman, and Terrell Fletcher.I think what you're citing as a negative for Jones is a fairly common phenomena (where other part time backs gain more on a per carry basis than the lead dog).

Sproles had was a whopping 0.4 YPC better than LT despite LT getting almost all of the goal line carries. As far as Hester, Tolbert, Chatman and Sproles, you can't compare the YPC of guys who at most carried the ball 21, 25, 63 and 61 times respectively to someone who ran the ball 350 times a season. Turner is a great RB in his own right, but his YPC took a big hit when he started carrying the ball 20+ times a game.

If you look at what I was responding to, the comparison was a lot more apples to apples than you are makin git out to be. Someone was indicating that Thomas Jones was outperformed on a per carry basis by other players on the Jets (usually guys with a lot fewer carries). Both Sproles and Turner have had ypcs in the fives and sixes before, That's a lot more than a whopping 0.4 ypc better.Either way, the point was that just because other players might have higher ypc averages doesn't mean the guy with a lower ypc was less talented or less productive. And many times, similar results happen on other teams.

 

[Sinrman]

Yeah as others have said... I think it's the big roster bonus due. Also LT is a bigger threat out of the backfield for dumps than TJ was. Two very different runners... Greene will be looked upon to be the bruiser, LT the 3rd down back and take some dumps here and there in the flats.

 

[Evilhomer3k]

So, he's hung around, gotten a lot of carries (#24 all-time), and now has compiled some stats which look OK for a career. He had two good seasons in New York, but I think those are overstating his NFL value, because he was playing behind a dominating line. Both years he had significantly lower YPC than his backups and even the team's fullback.

The last part applies to LT as much it applies to TJ. Tomlinson has had years where his ypc was lower (sometimes significantly lower) than Darren Sproules, Mike Tolbert, Jacob Hester, Michael Turner, Jesse Chatman, and Terrell Fletcher.I think what you're citing as a negative for Jones is a fairly common phenomena (where other part time backs gain more on a per carry basis than the lead dog).

Sproles had was a whopping 0.4 YPC better than LT despite LT getting almost all of the goal line carries. As far as Hester, Tolbert, Chatman and Sproles, you can't compare the YPC of guys who at most carried the ball 21, 25, 63 and 61 times respectively to someone who ran the ball 350 times a season. Turner is a great RB in his own right, but his YPC took a big hit when he started carrying the ball 20+ times a game.

If you look at what I was responding to, the comparison was a lot more apples to apples than you are makin git out to be. Someone was indicating that Thomas Jones was outperformed on a per carry basis by other players on the Jets (usually guys with a lot fewer carries). Both Sproles and Turner have had ypcs in the fives and sixes before, That's a lot more than a whopping 0.4 ypc better.Either way, the point was that just because other players might have higher ypc averages doesn't mean the guy with a lower ypc was less talented or less productive. And many times, similar results happen on other teams.

I think the .4 ypc better for Sproles was referencing this past year. I think the point of that is that no one on the Chargers in 2009 could run well. The only back who had a better than 4.0 YPC for SD in 2009 was the Mike Tolbert who had 25 carries for 148 yards. 118 of those yards were amassed in 2 blowout games vs Denver (32-3) and Washington (42-17). Those two games also accounted for 18 of Tolbert's 25 carries. I agree with your point that looking at YPC does not mean the guy with the lower YPC was less talented. Often the 3rd down back will have a greater YPC than the 1/2 down back due to draws and other plays where the defense is playing soft. Anyway, no one who ran the ball for SD this year could be considered to have a good year. Does anyone consider Sproles to be "done"? Sproles went from a 5.4 YPC average in 2008 to 3.7. As a team the Chargers averaged 3.3 YPC in 2009 with LT getting roughly half the carries. LT's 2009 average was 3.3. In 2008 the chargers averaged 4.1 YPC with LT averaging 3.8 and getting about 3/4 of the carries. In 2007 the Chargers averaged 4.2 YPC, LT 4.7, and LT got again roughly 3/4 of the carries. Each year the Chargers average has gone down. Not surprising when the lead back's YPC goes down but I have a tough time believe it was all LTs issue. This year LT averaged exactly what the Chargers averaged while getting half of the workload. LT's long this year was 36 yards for a rush and 36 for a reception. Last year it was 45 and 32. In 2007 it was 49 and 36. I see a lot of talk about how he has no burst and no speed yet his longest rush and reception haven't really gone down dramatically. His longest receptions have been pretty consistent even though his longest rush has gone down to only 36. Thomas Jones has averaged less than the Jets every year over the past 3 years. 3.6 to 3.8 in 2007. 4.5 to 4.7 in 2008. 4.2 to 4.5 in 2009. I think the worst you can expect for each guy is about the same. However I think that LT has a higher ceiling than Jones. Certainly there's not a lot of reason to believe LT is going to go out and light it up but I believe that a couple of things are in LTs favor. First, the Jets have a great line. I don't think anyone will argue that the Jets Oline is better at run blocking than San Diego's. Second, the Jets tend to run more with a fullback than San Diego has recently. I don't think it is a coincidence that the Chargers last good year for running and LT's last good year was the last year they had Lorenzo Neal. Richardson is getting up there in age but he has been an excellent blocking fullback during his career. Whether it's Richardson or someone else LT seems to run better behind a fullback. Curtis Martin had his best year as a pro in 2004 at the age of 31. His YPC had declined in each of the three previous years (4.5,4.2,4.0). I would love to see LT have a resurgence in New York. I'm not confident that he will but it has happened before.