Why does everyone think Arizona vs. SF (1 Viewer)

[Dexter Manley]

I've seen this mentioned in several threads here in the Shark Pool, where people are discussing which players have good matchups this week, who's starting Warner, etc. A common theme in these threads is that the Arizona-SF game is going to be a shootout. What am I missing? I just don't see it.

First, the over/under for this game is 41.5/42 depending where you look. That # means Vegas sees this as a 24 - 20 or 21 - 17 type game, not shootout. To put this in perspective, the O/U on the Bears-Colts is 44, a couple points bigger. And we all know Bears-Colts screams shootout, right?

Second, the Niners offense should be worse than Detroit's was last season, or at least not any better. Outside of Gore and V. Davis, the Niners have a lot less talent on offense, including the backup qb from Detroit last season. I know everyone is excited about Martz, but he doesn't have the skill players to fit his system.

Third, the Arizona defense should be better this season, imo. I like moving Rolle to FS, and Adrian Wilson is healthy.

I know Warner is a serious upgrade over Leinart at qb, but the only way I see the Cards putting up 30+ points is if the Niners turn the ball over a lot, which very well could happen with that offense. Is that why everyone thinks this is going to be a "shootout," because the Cards will be working a short field all day due to Niners' miscues?

I really don't see these offenses marching up and down the field on each other all day. What am I missing?

 

[Scooby1974]

I think Arizona will beat up SF pretty good this week. The only SF guys I see putting up points are Gore and the scorekeeper.

 

[thatguythere]

I've seen this mentioned in several threads here in the Shark Pool, where people are discussing which players have good matchups this week, who's starting Warner, etc. A common theme in these threads is that the Arizona-SF game is going to be a shootout. What am I missing? I just don't see it.

First, the over/under for this game is 41.5/42 depending where you look. That # means Vegas sees this as a 24 - 20 or 21 - 17 type game, not shootout. To put this in perspective, the O/U on the Bears-Colts is 44, a couple points bigger. And we all know Bears-Colts screams shootout, right?

Second, the Niners offense should be worse than Detroit's was last season, or at least not any better. Outside of Gore and V. Davis, the Niners have a lot less talent on offense, including the backup qb from Detroit last season. I know everyone is excited about Martz, but he doesn't have the skill players to fit his system.

Third, the Arizona defense should be better this season, imo. I like moving Rolle to FS, and Adrian Wilson is healthy.

I know Warner is a serious upgrade over Leinart at qb, but the only way I see the Cards putting up 30+ points is if the Niners turn the ball over a lot, which very well could happen with that offense. Is that why everyone thinks this is going to be a "shootout," because the Cards will be working a short field all day due to Niners' miscues?

I really don't see these offenses marching up and down the field on each other all day. What am I missing?

More like blow out.

 

[blackjack23]

I dont get it either. SF offense sucks

 

[kutta]

I think it's more a case of knowing the game is not going to end up with a 7-3 score. Both teams should score some points.

 

[Manster]

Warner>>>>>>>>O'sullivan, in a new martz system=a spankin for the 9ers. although the 9ers D could play pretty tough at home. i like the Cards to cover the -2.5, and the under.

 

[bigfishboy]

It will be a shootout...but only Arizona will be shooting. Start all your Cardinals. 35-7

 

[Manster]

Oregon State Alum here, class of 2000. lets see, from Roseburg with a handle of bigfishboy.....you be fishin the North U. and the Rogue me thinks. i used to chase steelies on the Alsea and nice redsides on the McKenzie when i was at OSU.

 

[49erBamBam52]

I have your answer...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG12

This is why people think it will be a shoot out...

Oh and perhaps you heard it here first (and maybe only me) but the niners are winning this game...

Im ok with people talking @#$% about the niners preseason... they are way undervalued.

Last year the Packers were picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league preseason, and the niners were going to "win their division"

We see here what preseason predicdtions mean... absolutely nothing...

So for those of you who think the cards are going to wipe the floor with the niners... place your bets... and lose.

PEACE OUT!!!

BAM

 

[Saint]

As a supporter of the "shoot-out" between these two teams, I really look at the history. Mike Martz has been notorious for offensive schemes that focus on passing (reference STL and DET history). He ends up starting JTO (Kitna's backup in DET who has a history of the offensive scheme), brought in Isaac Bruce (another player with Martz history), and in preseason has shown a slight preference toward passing.

SF:

Preseason Wk 1: Pass 37, Run 19 (66% Pass)

Preseason Wk 2: Pass 24, Run 35 (41% Pass)

Preseason Wk 3: Pass 32, Run 35 (48% Pass)

Preseason Wk 4: Pass 27, Run 23 (54% Pass)

Overall: 52% passing (Slight Preference)

ARI:

Preseason Wk 1: Pass 32, Run 15 (68% Pass)

Preseason Wk 2: Pass 25, Run 21 (54% Pass)

Preseason Wk 3: Pass 25, Run 39 (39% Pass)

Preseason Wk 4: Pass 37, Run 22 (63% Pass)

Overall: 55% passing (Slight Preference)

So knowing that you have a team that is going to Pass, you can anticipate that SF will be trying to get some big plays on the board. The offensive scheme has led to turnovers, which may also equate to SF falling behind earlier, which also requires more passing to get them back into the game.

Now we look at ARI with Warner at the helm. ARI has two of the best WRs in the league and with Warner, he tends to pass as well (See the other thread for some of his numbers). He also has been labeled with INTs and Fmbls. Do I see ARI with its high caliber WRs running the ball a lot? No way. As a matter of fact they had an edge toward passing in 3 of their 4 preseason games. Bottomline, I see them passing. Chances are there will be turnovers. Chances are both teams will be going for some big plays.

I think the ARI-D is better than SF, but I still expect the passing numbers to be big. Personally, I think this could be Gore's biggest game of the year if they are using him for screen passes, but that's just opinion on my side.

 

[Manster]

I have your answer...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG12

This is why people think it will be a shoot out...

Oh and perhaps you heard it here first (and maybe only me) but the niners are winning this game...

Im ok with people talking @#$% about the niners preseason... they are way undervalued.

Last year the Packers were picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league preseason, and the niners were going to "win their division"

We see here what preseason predicdtions mean... absolutely nothing...

So for those of you who think the cards are going to wipe the floor with the niners... place your bets... and lose.

PEACE OUT!!!

BAM

go down with the ship!

 

[Dexter Manley]

Looks like Peter King is on board with this being a shootout as well:

Arizona Cardinals (0-0) at San Francisco 49ers (0-0)The best game of the weekend. The most fun and highlight-filled game of the weekend, with 82 passes by Kurt Warner and Mike Martz's latest version of Warner, J.T. O'Sullivan. TiVo this game on "Sunday Ticket,'' and I guarantee you'll be watching it sometime Monday or Tuesday. It'll be electric. Prediction: San Francisco 49ers 33, Arizona Cardinals 30

 

[Scooby1974]

Everyone IS aware that Mike Martz had Bulger and Kurt "MVP" Warner at QB right? Holt, an "in his prime" Bruce, the best RB in the league in Faulk...

Now he has J.T. O'Sullivan a backups backup, an old Bruce, Gore with a so/so line, an overated TE that has proven nothing thusfar, and little else.

If my Niners score 33 points I'll eat my sock.

 

[mozzy84]

I have your answer...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG12

This is why people think it will be a shoot out...

Oh and perhaps you heard it here first (and maybe only me) but the niners are winning this game...

Im ok with people talking @#$% about the niners preseason... they are way undervalued.

Last year the Packers were picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league preseason, and the niners were going to "win their division"

We see here what preseason predicdtions mean... absolutely nothing...

So for those of you who think the cards are going to wipe the floor with the niners... place your bets... and lose.

PEACE OUT!!!

BAM

this one is getting bumped by somebody also I don't remember anyone saying that about green bay last year, if anything it was the opposite, they finished the season strong the year before.

 

[Muahahaha]

Everyone IS aware that Mike Martz had Bulger and Kurt "MVP" Warner at QB right? Holt, an "in his prime" Bruce, the best RB in the league in Faulk...Now he has J.T. O'Sullivan a backups backup, an old Bruce, Gore with a so/so line, an overated TE that has proven nothing thusfar, and little else. If my Niners score 33 points I'll eat my sock.

The problem with your analysis is that Martz made both Warner and Bulger. Warner was a stockboy who went to that football powerhouse Northern Iowa. Bulger was a 6th round draft pick. Nobody saw either of these guys emerging. I guarantee they were on zero dynasty rosters before their first NFL start.People are giving Martz credit for making something out of nothing.

 

[awesomeness]

The last time these 2 teams met the final score was 48-44. Obviously the score won't be that high, but something like 35-28 seems realistic.

 

[49erBamBam52]

I have your answer...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/boxscore?gam...&week=REG12

This is why people think it will be a shoot out...

Oh and perhaps you heard it here first (and maybe only me) but the niners are winning this game...

Im ok with people talking @#$% about the niners preseason... they are way undervalued.

Last year the Packers were picked by many to be one of the worst teams in the league preseason, and the niners were going to "win their division"

We see here what preseason predicdtions mean... absolutely nothing...

So for those of you who think the cards are going to wipe the floor with the niners... place your bets... and lose.

PEACE OUT!!!

BAM

this one is getting bumped by somebody also I don't remember anyone saying that about green bay last year, if anything it was the opposite, they finished the season strong the year before.

Dont worry, ill be the one bumping this thread... oh and, if you google "2007 nfl predictions" you will see that on at least 75% of the sites GB is picked to finish no higher than 3rd in their division...

heres one.

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/2...ge=9&cat=14

BAM

 

[BigRed]

Oregon State Alum here, class of 2000. lets see, from Roseburg with a handle of bigfishboy.....you be fishin the North U. and the Rogue me thinks. i used to chase steelies on the Alsea and nice redsides on the McKenzie when i was at OSU.

This is why I come here. You can't buy info like this.Anyway I'm thinking something like AZ 35-17 sounds about right. Huge day for Warner and Fitz vs hapless SF secondary.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Oregon State Alum here, class of 2000. lets see, from Roseburg with a handle of bigfishboy.....you be fishin the North U. and the Rogue me thinks. i used to chase steelies on the Alsea and nice redsides on the McKenzie when i was at OSU.

This is why I come here. You can't buy info like this.Anyway I'm thinking something like AZ 35-17 sounds about right. Huge day for Warner and Fitz vs hapless SF secondary.

I was under the impression that the Niner corners Clements and Harris are not bums. I've said it on the other thread, I have Warner but I don't like getting cute week one. The Cardinals typically dissapoint, just don't trust this matchup.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Oregon State Alum here, class of 2000. lets see, from Roseburg with a handle of bigfishboy.....you be fishin the North U. and the Rogue me thinks. i used to chase steelies on the Alsea and nice redsides on the McKenzie when i was at OSU.

This is why I come here. You can't buy info like this.Anyway I'm thinking something like AZ 35-17 sounds about right. Huge day for Warner and Fitz vs hapless SF secondary.

I was under the impression that the Niner corners Clements and Harris are not bums. I've said it on the other thread, I have Warner but I don't like getting cute week one. The Cardinals typically dissapoint, just don't trust this matchup.

Zona has a 2 so/so WRs... no one really special .

 

[kremenull]

I don't foresee this as a shootout. Both of these defenses have looked pretty good to me in the preseason and I believe they (AZ and SF Defs) are both underrated in terms of fantasy value this season. I don't think it will be a low-scoring affair, either, but somewhere in the neighborhood of 24-17. I'm expecting several turnovers from each side as well, with the fantasy stars likely to be A.Boldin, Warner, A.Wilson and Dansby (IDPs) for AZ and I.Bruce or B.Johnson, (possibly) Gore, M.Lawson and P.Willis and Clements (IDPs) for the 49ers.

Arizona wins on a late TD from Warner to Boldin.......

 

[ourmanflint]

Everyone IS aware that Mike Martz had Bulger and Kurt "MVP" Warner at QB right? Holt, an "in his prime" Bruce, the best RB in the league in Faulk...

Now he has J.T. O'Sullivan a backups backup, an old Bruce, Gore with a so/so line, an overated TE that has proven nothing thusfar, and little else.

If my Niners score 33 points I'll eat my sock.

The OVER it is then!!!

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Oregon State Alum here, class of 2000. lets see, from Roseburg with a handle of bigfishboy.....you be fishin the North U. and the Rogue me thinks. i used to chase steelies on the Alsea and nice redsides on the McKenzie when i was at OSU.

This is why I come here. You can't buy info like this.Anyway I'm thinking something like AZ 35-17 sounds about right. Huge day for Warner and Fitz vs hapless SF secondary.

I was under the impression that the Niner corners Clements and Harris are not bums. I've said it on the other thread, I have Warner but I don't like getting cute week one. The Cardinals typically dissapoint, just don't trust this matchup.

Zona has a 2 so/so WRs... no one really special .

I realize Zona has two stud WRs boss. My point was that the Niner secondary was not "hapless." And to the point of Warner vs. Roethlesberger, I think the Houston secondary is in worse shape than San Frans FWIW.ETA This is what makes this game fun--the different philosophies of putting in lineups. A lot of people happened to get Warner as a second or third QB and already they are salivating at the matchup but lots of folks drafted Manning, Brees, Big Ben and Palmer as thier number ones. I just hate outthinking myself especially with a QB from a team that is really questionable. Just me .02$

 

[AnonymousBob]

49erBamBam52,

First, I wish you had a shorter alias. Second, I agree with you. I've said the Niners have a very good chance to win this game and I think the naysayers will look silly come Monday.

Go San Francisco!!

 

[49erBamBam52]

49erBamBam52,First, I wish you had a shorter alias. Second, I agree with you. I've said the Niners have a very good chance to win this game and I think the naysayers will look silly come Monday. Go San Francisco!!

i allways liked you on this forum (long time reader, newb poster)!!! LOLBTW our names have the same amount of charachters Just call me BAM, its easier.GO NINERS!!!

 

[drew726]

Niners must have the most underrated Defense in the league. If their offense can stay on the field to give the D some rest, I believe their D is top 5 in the league.

 

[blackjack23]

Niners must have the most underrated Defense in the league. If their offense can stay on the field to give the D some rest, I believe their D is top 5 in the league.

I dunno about top 5 but I dont see why everyone thinks they have a bad defense. Patrick Willis, Justin Smith, Nate Clements, Michael Lewis, Walt Harris, Manny Lawson are some good pieces for a top defense.

 

[blackjack23]

 

[Dexter Manley]

Just as I thought, this game was anything but a shootout.

I think this was a good example of how groupthink can quickly proliferate ("it's going to be a shootout") and lead many owners to make poor decisions regarding which players they start.